Marlins, Pirates in trade talks regarding starting pitching

[Ely Sussman]

According to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the Miami Marlins and Pittsburgh Pirates are "actively" discussing potential trades, with the Pirates focused on acquiring immediate starting rotation help. Mackey singles out Edward Cabrera as the arm that the Marlins would be most willing to move and whose combination of upside and club control would appeal to the Pirates.

Last season, Cabrera established new career bests in innings pitched (99 ⅔), FIP (4.43) and strikeout rate (27.2%). However, his control issues were as bad as ever. He led the Marlins with 66 walks allowed despite appearing in only 22 MLB games and he was demoted to Triple-A in August even when the team was thin on rotation alternatives. The Dominican right-hander also missed part of the season with a shoulder impingement. He turns 26 in April and has no minor league options remaining.

Mackey believes that one of the Pirates' infielders, Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales or Ji Hwan Bae, would "likely" go to Miami as the headliner of the return package. Of that trio, Peguero has the most big league shortstop experience. They each could be optioned to the minors if there isn't a fit on the Opening Day active roster.

Personally, I'm skeptical of Cabrera's future as a starter and would be amenable to trading him now if the return is appropriate (with Pittsburgh including another asset on top of Peguero/Gonzalez/Bae).

Mackey writes that the Pirates are also seriously considering free agent starters, so they could pivot in that direction if unable to compromise with the Marlins.

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[Indica Jones]

This may be the most MEH 🤷‍♂️ I've ever felt about a trade. Not liking the returns I am seeing floated around.

[Brock Beauchamp]

6 minutes ago, Indica Jones said:

This may be the most MEH 🤷‍♂️ I've ever felt about a trade. Not liking the returns I am seeing floated around.

Welcome to Fish On First!

[Ely Sussman]

7 minutes ago, Indica Jones said:

This may be the most MEH 🤷‍♂️ I've ever felt about a trade. Not liking the returns I am seeing floated around.

The Marlins don't have much leverage, unfortunately. Everybody knows that they were shopping Cabrera last year. Took a step back with his control and now he's out of options, so it is a make-or-break season for him.

I'd rather take a chance on a prospect deeper down in the Pirates system with more upside rather than the fringy role players that this Pirates writer mentions.

[Sean McCormack]

This would be trading Cabrera at his lowest value. I believe we’re better off betting on him finding control and moving him next offseason or even a bullpen role. Good luck finding a 100 mph fastball with a 97 mph changeup at times. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 hours ago, Ely Sussman said:

The Marlins don't have much leverage, unfortunately. Everybody knows that they were shopping Cabrera last year. Took a step back with his control and now he's out of options, so it is a make-or-break season for him.

I'd rather take a chance on a prospect deeper down in the Pirates system with more upside rather than the fringy role players that this Pirates writer mentions.

That's an interesting perspective given the Marlins' 2023 (improbable and unrepeatable as that may be) and the current state of their farm system.

What kind of PR hit would the Marlins take right now if they tried to trade away MLB players for prospect depth?

[Slacker Mills]

Of all Marlin pitchers, Cabrera is the one I most look forward to watching. Problems: hitters lay off the fastball because he loses it up and in to right-handed hitters. It has more movement than his change, which is the pitch that opposing hitters are waiting for. It is said that a change should be 8-10 mph slower than the heater. His is certainly not. It is a hit-me avg fastball in effect, a pitch that he has to slow down in order to generate more movement and deception. You don't even consider trading a guy like Cabrera at this point. Out of the question (unless you are getting a Noelvi Marte in return).

[One Regend]

I have to echo the sentiment that trading Cabrera now would be a mistake. They would not only be selling painfully low on him, but in doing so, they're throwing away what little starting pitching depth they have left. Best to just trot him out and see what they get out of him, and demote him into the bullpen if he continues walking 6.0 BB/9. I understand that they can only put up with him walking the farm for so long, but 100 mph FBs and 97 mph changeups, both with excellent movement, don't grow on trees.

Furthermore, the last thing we need is yet another player with no pop at the plate. Liover and Nick Gonzales I can maybe understand attracting to Miami, but when we already have Luis Arraez and Xavier Edwards, we don't need another Magneuris Sierra-type player. Hard no to Bae.

[Ely Sussman]

3 hours ago, One Regend said:

I have to echo the sentiment that trading Cabrera now would be a mistake. They would not only be selling painfully low on him, but in doing so, they're throwing away what little starting pitching depth they have left. Best to just trot him out and see what they get out of him, and demote him into the bullpen if he continues walking 6.0 BB/9. I understand that they can only put up with him walking the farm for so long, but 100 mph FBs and 97 mph changeups, both with excellent movement, don't grow on trees.

Furthermore, the last thing we need is yet another player with no pop at the plate. Liover and Nick Gonzales I can maybe understand attracting to Miami, but when we already have Luis Arraez and Xavier Edwards, we don't need another Magneuris Sierra-type player. Hard no to Bae.

Well GIVING Cabrera away would certainly be a mistake. If the Pirates are only willing to part with fringy utility types and rookie-ball lottery tickets but nothing in between, then that would be selling too low. I would expect some team to step up with a better offer if the Marlins were widely shopping him. 

[Ely Sussman]

21 hours ago, Slacker Mills said:

Of all Marlin pitchers, Cabrera is the one I most look forward to watching. Problems: hitters lay off the fastball because he loses it up and in to right-handed hitters. It has more movement than his change, which is the pitch that opposing hitters are waiting for. It is said that a change should be 8-10 mph slower than the heater. His is certainly not. It is a hit-me avg fastball in effect, a pitch that he has to slow down in order to generate more movement and deception. You don't even consider trading a guy like Cabrera at this point. Out of the question (unless you are getting a Noelvi Marte in return).

It is frustrating to think about how much more effective he would be with decent fastball command and the additional swing-and-miss potential his changeup would have if he slowed it down to create a wider contrast in velo.

[Slacker Mills]

We should remember that Cabrera is just one season removed from having a 1.07 WHIP (and 3.01 ERA) despite a 4.1 walk per nine rate. He's good.

[Slacker Mills]

We also have to remember that the last two starters we traded proved to be stars the year after. Gallen. Lopez. We don't want to add Cabrera to that list unless we score a big time guy like Noelvi Marte from CINN.

[Slacker Mills]

The Marlins made an offer to Tim Anderson, the least productive offensive player in all of baseball last season? He also supplies sub-standard defense.

[One Regend]

7 hours ago, Slacker Mills said:

The Marlins made an offer to Tim Anderson, the least productive offensive player in all of baseball last season? He also supplies sub-standard defense.

That's a gamble that, if it pays off and he returns to form, can actually be huge. But if it doesn't and he continues his regression to the mean, can backfire dramatically. The epitome of a high risk high reward player.

[Ely Sussman]

8 hours ago, Slacker Mills said:

We also have to remember that the last two starters we traded proved to be stars the year after. Gallen. Lopez. We don't want to add Cabrera to that list unless we score a big time guy like Noelvi Marte from CINN.

Completely fair to bring those two up, though the circumstances were different. Gallen's stock had risen dramatically over a matter of months and they wanted to capitalize on that, while the team's cheapness was largely responsible for shopping López (they were unwilling to extend him at anything close to his market rate).

The cautionary tale who comes to mind for me is Brad Hand. He was at a very similar stage of his career. At least in Cabrera's case, they would be getting something in return (Hand departed as a waiver claim).