Jesús Luzardo for Vinnie Pasquantino trade rumor doesn't add up

[Ely Sussman]

At the Winter Meetings earlier this month, the Miami Marlins discussed a potential franchise-altering trade that would have sent Jesús Luzardo to the Kansas City Royals for Vinnie Pasquantino, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. Rosenthal implies that it was the Royals who decided not to proceed, instead bolstering their starting rotation via free agency without having to sacrifice their talented first baseman.

In a vacuum, it's unsurprising that the Marlins would want "The Pasquatch." The 2019 draft pick thrived at every level of the minor leagues. After initially slumping following his 2022 midseason call-up, he was among MLB's hottest hitters over the last two-plus months of the season. Pasquantino possesses terrific contact skills, even against same-handed pitching. He's drawn nearly as many walks as strikeouts in the majors while also generating average-ish power.

Pasquantino was on an All-Star trajectory through the first quarter of the 2023 campaign. However, his stats cratered after that, and then on June 9, he tore the labrum in his right shoulder. The subsequent surgery sidelined him for the rest of the season. He finished with replacement-level production in 61 games played (.247/.324/.437, 103 wRC+ in 260 PA).

Assuming a clean bill of health, Pasquantino is projected by both ZiPS (128 OPS+) and Steamer (128 wRC+) to revert to his rookie form. He insists on Twitter that the shoulder issues are fully behind him:

Pasquantino would make Miami's offense better than it currently projects to be in 2024, occupying first base or the DH spot on a near-daily basis (whichever one Josh Bell isn't playing). The most appealing part? He's still two years away from arbitration eligibility and five years away from free agency.

Trade young pitching for Pasquantino? I could see it. But Jesús Luzardo?! Not unless there are additional substantial assets coming to the Marlins in return. Even then, they'd have to be the right ones.

Luzardo has made all 44 of his scheduled starts since returning from a forearm strain in mid-2022. He's been the ace of the Marlins during that span. "Trading him might be the best way for the Marlins to address offensive needs while guarding against Luzardo’s value diminishing as he gets more expensive," Rosenthal wrote in a separate column on Friday, citing his $5.9M arbitration projection.

To be clear, there is absolutely zero financial pressure on the Marlins to do that this offseason. A $5.9M salary is about half of what ho-hum back-end starters are getting in free agency. Eventually, though, Luzardo will be a rich man.

On Saturday, Tyler Glasnow is expected to finalize a contract extension with the Los Angeles Dodgers that values his early-30s free agent years at $30M apiece. For all of their stylistic differences, both Glasnow and Luzardo have lights-out stuff and fairly comparable results since "putting it all together" in recent seasons, plus they share a worrisome history when it comes to forearm/elbow injuries. Luzardo is on track to reach free agency entering his age-29 season, two years younger than Glasnow would have.

Jesús Luzardo vs. Tyler Glasnow pitching comparison | Stathead

My Marlins offseason blueprint called for a $77.5M Luzardo extension. Unfortunately for the club, as much as the South Florida native might desire to spend the prime of his career in a familiar place, I underestimated the starting pitching market. Even being so far away from the open market, he wouldn't settle for that much of a discount. Glasnow's guarantee of $110M in new money now seems like the more appropriate benchmark. I have a difficult time imagining the Marlins going there.

The payday hasn't arrived yet and Luzardo's current healthy streak is highly encouraging. As a result, his trade value is peaking right now. While that does not mean the Marlins should look to move him, it does justify listening to what's out there.

This brings me back to Pasquantino—skilled hitter, seemingly awesome personality, coincidentally the same age as Luzardo (they were born 10 days apart), but not nearly as valuable. He's all the way at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, limited to first base and not particularly effective at the position. His two additional years of club control don't close the gap between them.

The Marlins have long-term uncertainty at the premium up-the-middle spots. Selling high on Luzardo is only justifiable if it helps them figure out their future at catcher, shortstop or center field. In Kansas City's case, if Pasquantino was packaged with Maikel García—another promising pre-arb player who would immediately become Miami's primary shortstop—that would have been something worth considering.

Remember how Luzardo got here in the first place, as the compensation that the Marlins received for pending free agent Starling Marte. His hard work has boosted his trade value by several multiples since then. In his first offseason on the job, president of baseball operations Peter Bendix has the opportunity to flip him for a special haul if another team is desperate enough. If Bendix actually does view Luzardo as roughly equivalent to a Pasquantino type, he's in danger of botching this opportunity.

 

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[Guest]

This team will never be competitive unless they spend money on a free agent player. This exercise of trading promissing talent for promising talent may cure one problem but create another. When I see Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, making moves it is depressing being a Marlins fan when we can't acquire talent unless we give away the store.

[Guest]

Any interest in Duran from Texas as part of a trade? Maybe him + Justin Foscue for a starting pitcher from the Marlins? The Rangers have extra offensive and need a pitcher especially since Scherzer is out for the first half.

[Ely Sussman]

Yes, I could see something centered around Duran working out (provided that it's a NON-Luzardo starting pitcher we're talking about)

[Guest]

Luzardo will probably get even better over the next two years. I would not understand why the Marlins would trade him this offseason.

 

Maybe, maybe when Sandy is back to form, Eury is well established and any of the Cabrera, Rogers or Garrett group have taken one or two steps forward. That should be mid next season at the earliest.

 

If the Marlins can address both C and SS with decent/replacement level players (say, sign Knizner and trade for Farmer or Polanco), this lineup is a LOT better than last season’s OD lineup.

 

So again, why trade Luzardo when he is the “ace” of the rotation and will be needed next season?

[Ely Sussman]

The thinking would be, at least from what I can tell, that Luzardo is the key to acquiring a long-term C or SS. Instead of kicking those issues further down the road, pay the steep price now and trust in the other young pitchers to improve in Luzardo's absence.

 

I can't comprehend how trading him for a 1B/DH like Pasquantino would even be on the table.

[Guest tpjoseph0130]

In my opinion, the best way for the Marlins to compete is to hoard their young pitching. We all saw last year how things change quickly. Without Alcantara, the situation is more tenuous. No available/affordable FA pitching is better than what we have. Trading controllable and affordable arms for a patchwork offensive player is a losing proposition. The Marlins should rely on pitching and defense for 2024, which is highly unlikely to be a repeat of the unicorn 2023 season. Pitching at the trade deadline will be at a premium and, more importantly, we have an opportunity to raise the values of Cabrera and Rogers significantly from their current low points. We hold all the cards, and a piecemeal trade will not move the needle.

[Guest]

Ely, you aren't thinking about the role of our esteemed owner. There is a savings involved in this preposterous proposal...OUCH! To date, this observer has not seen a single deal since our new GM arrived, that didn't involve a policy of NOT spending any significant money at all! In my aged opinion, a new GM should initially make some sort of newsworthy positive move. To say that he hasn't is an understatement. If management keeps this up, who will want to even root for this team, no less actually attend a game?

[Ely Sussman]

I'm likewise disappointed that Bendix doesn't feel compelled to "win over" his new fanbase with impactful moves, but the one thing he's been transparent about since taking over is the emphasis on LONG-TERM success. He wasn't hired with the mandate to win in 2024. It's frustrating considering the franchise's history of always taking significant step backs following each playoff berth.

[Guest]

Ely, long term equates to younger players, and that equates to less salary, and I'm terribly upset by such thinking. We got into the playoffs, let's strive for that goal again while there is still some semblance of a fan base to help finance the future.

[Guest]

Your sentiments are eminently understandable. Yet, I feel we're misplacing some of our finger-pointing. We know scouting l, drafting, and development are the only path for success. The previous baseball folks failed miserably, yet me keep insisting another $30 or $50 million in payroll will catch us up with the Braves, Phillies, or even the Mets. We literally have no choice but to support the Bendix initiative.

TP Joseph