Chad Turner

We are 1/3 of the way through the minor league slate. Here's my review of the prospects that will fall from their pre-season rankings by the mid-season update. I am just a lifelong fan and statistician. I've never seen any of these guys personally, and I mean no disrespect. I hope all these players prove me wrong. This is just an armchair view, but I have put a ton of time into this as it's my favorite hobby. Spreadsheets are my thing. I am reacting to this season's stats, but also taking their careers into account. Age is also a big factor. Head, Marsee, Martorella, and Go - I need more data, but not the start we were looking for. I'm still hopeful for Head, but Go suks already. This trade made me want to puke, and I'm still dry heaving. Dax Fulton - He shouldn't fall far, but it's hard to keep him in the top ten when he hasn't log a stat and is only getting older. His prior stats aren't dominant, but I'm hopeful he can come back even stronger. He's got the frame and had the heat. I just think he might be passed by some of these great young arms we have. Jacob Berry - Should he even be a prospect at this point? He can't play D, and now can't even hit. I would remove him entirely. It's rare for a guy to turn it around from a point this low. Kemp Alderman - after posting a .602 OPS last year, he needed to show a strong performance out of the gate this year. You can't do that from the IL. There is still time for him to flash over the next month or two, but I wouldn't bet on it. Troy Johnston - Needing to prove the Marlins wrong for not protecting him in the R5 draft, he has been mediocre at best. Turning 27 this month, he's now just another quad A guy in my eyes. He is heating up though. But I would remove him from my list. Brock Vradenburg - A 22 yr old 1B repeating A ball with a .519 OPS? That shouldn't be on any top 30 list. He's not as good as Torin Montgomery at this point, who isn't impressing that much in Beloit. Pat Monteverde - He's almost 27 and has low 90s heat. I knew he would likely get rocked in the high minors. Same with Luis Palacios. At least he's 3 years younger. John Cruz - We are getting the worst possible version of him. Somebody wake him up. Power? Gone. Ks up. Walks down. Can't hit. We got burned. These DSL bats are a crap shoot. 1 out of every 100 makes it to the show, and rarely is it with the team that originally signed them. They should be forced to sign 7 year deals instead of 4. Jose Gerardo - a K machine repeating rookie ball. Fabian Lopez - Small sample size but not hitting. Shane Sasaki - this 4th OF profile looks more like a 6th OF. Hopefully he gets healthy and hot. I'll follow up with my risers tomorrow.

Split, Berger MVP

TEX 2-1, Semien MVP

AZ 2-1, Gurriel MVP

MIL 2-1, Yelich MVP

Next year Sandy and Eury will likely be on a pitch count. We don't have the stud upper level prospects to make a difference at the plate. More trades are probable. Can we compete again in '26? Or will it be '27? Here's my projected lineup, followed by the year they become FAs: SP: Sandy extension, Eury '31?, Brax '29, Ed '29, Weathers '30?, Meyer, Fitterer. Trade Luzardo. I'm predicting Sandy having a mediocre 1st year back, therefore we can extend him on the cheap. If he has a great '25, then trade him. We also have a strong next wave with Milbrandt, Fulton, Miller, Olson, Brooks, White, and Noble. Plus whatever Dominicans emerge. I see you Juan DLC. Such a fun name. Most of our pen is controllable, and we have a bunch of decent RPs in the minors, so I'm sure we will be ok there. Obviously Scott will be traded soon. At the plate, Jazz looks like an obvious trade candidate. I say we build around Burger '30, and Brujan '30, I'm pencilling in Edwards and Martorella as our other IF starters. Our OF is Mesa Jr, Myers, and Marsee. Banfield and Mack at C. Trade DLC and Sanchez if they have value. If not, pencil them in. Hopefully some of the near replacement level guys we have of a quad A guy emerges. Perhaps another upper level prospect I haven't covered. We obviously need bats. This can be done with trades, the draft, and free agency. I think any team would be happy with our future pitching, but our hitting sucks. Can we get enough for Scott, Luzardo, and Jazz to stop there? Or are Brax, Ed, Sandy, and Burger gone too? That's the question. Who did I miss?

DET 2-1. Greene MVP

PHI 2-1, Turner MVP

No one is going to want Bender coming off TJS, since he might get shut down by the deadline. Scott should net more than we gave up for Robertson last year though. He should be traded ASAP. I would be surprised if Jazz nets Jaison Chourio. More like the other two only. He would have to really heat up. But I do think he will be traded. No way we get 3 prospects for DLC. He had a negative WAR last year. Not exactly sure what a replacement level OF gets you. Hopefully Bell will heat up, but he's out of shape and has a bloated contract. Plus he's off to a very slow start that I doubt he can get out of without protection in the lineup. I think we build around Burger. I could see one of Luzardo or Garrett being traded if they are hot.

Dodgers sweep. Freeman MVP

...in this analytics thing. I was upset at the Brujan/Faucher trade. How can you trade for the worst player in MLB (.438 OPS) with no options left and waste a 40-man spot on Faucher (7.01 ERA)? Burch who? Dump Okert and sign Cronin? Roddery Munoz? I thought these guys were only going to hurt the Marlins. The fact that they are kinda helping is just weird. Not everyone has worked out, but I am curious what Bendix can do with a little money, considering all of these guys are making the minimum. Obviously starting pitching was supposed to be our strength. Our top 4 arms (Sandy, Eury, Jesus, and Brax) are out. Our pitching staff contains 5 guys that didn't pitch at all last year and 4 more that had ERA's north of 5.40. We just swept a team with our best power bat out. Baseball is a strange sport indeed.

Marlins sweep, Arraez MVP

Marlins 3-1, Arraez MVP

SF 2-1. Arraez MVP.

Braves win 2-1. Arraez MVP

Gray is the exception right now, but I never put faith into one week of AAA numbers for a 28 yr old prospect. He does look like a specimen, but batted .182 in the spring and batted .235 in his 3rd AAA season last year. The list of 28 yr old hitting prospects making a substantial impact in the majors is a very short list. I do recall you were the only professional writer in the world to include him on a top 30 list (#30), so props to you.

Yankees win 2-1, Arraez MVP

Well, we got some $$$ and Bellozo. What a crap return for a top 10 prospect. I know he wasn't hitting well enough to make the show yet, but crushed 13 more HRs than Lopez last year. I actually thought Amaya was a little overrated with all the Ks, but never thought we would just dump him and replace with a lesser player. I'm trying not to overreact to this season yet, but early returns for Bendix are crap. Brujan and Bethancourt are 0-for-20. Bride and Gordon sub .150. Emmanuel, Smith, and Gutierrez over 6.50 ERAs. I was hoping he would find some diamonds in the rough. We just picked up the Rays trash. Bring back Ng?

How is Otto Lopez better than Amaya? SMH

Marlins 3-0, Arraez MVP

First, I am happy with the trade. I loved Berti, but this was the time to get max value for him. In my opinion, it's easy to compare Andres Valor and John Cruz. They are the same height, similar weight, and are just over 2 months apart. They both play OF. Valor seems to have a better shot at sticking in CF though, and may have a touch more speed. But Cruz has more power. Plus the fact that he's a year ahead and put up those numbers stateside makes me want to rank him higher. That being said, it's a small sample size. Then there's Luis Cova with no sample size. It's really hard to judge these youngsters, but it seems like Cruz could climb into the top 5 with a repeat in A ball. Right now I would put him at 9. He's a high risk/rewrd 45 guy. Sasaki is a year older than Mesa Jr and a level behind, so he's nowhere near a top 5 guy. Mesa obviously has more power but more swing and miss too. I would slot him in around 15 on our list, just behind Valor. He's a low risk 40 guy to me. He is our best 23yr old prospect and fills a need at that age level.

2-2. Arraez MVP

I really wish prospect lists should be broken into 2 or 3 different groups. AA/AAA/MLB - anyone 27 and under with less than a full season of experience should be on this list. Eury would be our top prospect and Myers would be aged out. This would contain guys that could help this season. Edwards would be #2 A/A+ - a cup of coffee in AA would still qualify you for this list. A half season there would disqualify you. I guess you could include the HS guys in the first few rds of the draft here too. R/DSL - I'm not even sure we even need a list for these guys, since 95% will switch orgs before making it to the show. To me, this is such a better format. Myers is 7 years older than Eury, and older than over half our projected opening day roster. It's ridiculous that we are including him on a prospect list and not a 20 yr old. You could also compare us to other franchises easier.

Well I don't like Jazz throwing vets under the bus, but I'm glad to hear the team is united under Skip. It seemed Mattingly was too laid back. Perhaps Rojas was a little nutty, but that dude loved the Marlins. Until Jazz puts up, he should shut up. To me he's a pompous .245 hitter with a career 103 OPS+. I remember when Jose F. showed a pitcher up, a vet got on him, and he apologized. Stay classy Miami.

Noble MeyerThomas WhiteMax MeyerXavier EdwardsVictor Mesa Jr.Dax FultonJacob AmayaTroy JohnstonJacob BerryLuis CovaKarson MilbrandtYiddi CappeAndrés ValorDane MyersJacob MillerPatrick MonteverdeKemp AldermanJuan De La CruzWill BanfieldFabian LópezAnthony MaldonadoJavier SanojaBrock VradenburgJosé DeversSixto SánchezJoe MackYoffry SolanoTorin MontgomeryLuarbert AriasNigel Belgrave