Louis Addeo-Weiss

The Marlins are bound to be sellers at this year's deadline, but are their best assets going to garner much return if they keep performing the way they are? In 2024, the Miami Marlins are enduring what has the makings to be a franchise-worst season. The real games began just three weeks ago and Miami's playoff odds have cratered to the low single digits. I'll do my best to abstain from harping on the team's collective incompetence. The next phase of the discourse ought to be how the Marlins can revamp their organization to eventually contend consistently. In speaking to Craig Mish of the Miami Herald, president of baseball operations Peter Bendix was blunt about using the rest of this season to observe young players "step up and show that they can be a part of our future." Regular playing time for those young players could be created via trades. Jesús Luzardo, Luis Arraez, and Tanner Scott—all marquee contributors to an 84-win club that secured an NL Wild Card berth in 2023—could potentially find themselves playing meaningful games for competitive clubs as the season trudges along. Bendix will aim to exchange them for talented assets who have lower salaries and more years of club control remaining. The problem present here is that the poor early-season performance of those players may greatly affect the potential return coming Miami's way. A selling spree can't transform one of the sport's worst farm systems into a rich pipeline unless aspiring playoff clubs are fully convinced that these acquisitions would change their fortunes for the better. The aforementioned Luzardo, a power left-handed starter who won't hit free agency until after the 2026 season, presents arguably the best bite at the apple of a prospect haul come trade season. Among the 69 pitchers to throw at least 250 innings between 2022 and 2023, Luzardo posted the 6th-best K/9 (10.58) thanks to a fastball that averaged 96.7 mph over that stretch. He was no slouch in the run-prevention game either, as evidenced by his 3.48 ERA (125 ERA+). Here in 2024, Luzardo has been far from the steady force he was the previous two seasons, amassing a 7.65 ERA, ranking 82nd among 83 qualified pitchers through April 17. While FIP (5.85) and xFIP (4.44) propose that positive regression is pending, the similarities between Luzardo's pre-breakout 2021 and 2024 Statcast data are worrisome. For those unfamiliar, upon being acquired from Oakland in the Starling Marte trade, Luzardo—the owner of a 6.87 ERA in 13 appearances with the A's—initially failed for his boyhood club, posting a 6.44 ERA in 12 starts, with the latter being the worst among MLB pitchers from August onward (min. 55 IP). If Luzardo keeps on the path he has carved out for himself in the early going, the Marlins could find themselves in a situation mirroring the one faced by the 2011 Colorado Rockies when trying to trade staff ace Ubaldo Jiménez. Pitching to a 3.47 ERA and 3.36 FIP in what seems like a now-unfathomable 218 innings in 2009, Jiménez kicked it into third gear in 2010, riding his 100-mph fastball to a 19-win, 2.88 ERA season. He tossed a no-hitter, started for the NL in the All-Star Game, and ultimately finished third in Cy Young voting. His 161 ERA+ still ranks third all-time among Rockies pitchers to qualify for the ERA title. Jiménez dropped up considerably in 2011, sporting a 4.46 ERA through his first 21 starts. Seeing as his peripherals suggested some bad luck on his part (3.58 FIP, 8.6 K/9), Colorado still found a buyer at that year's trade deadline. The Cleveland Guardians acquired him for a package of players that included Joe Gardner, Matt McBride, Alex White, and a PTBNL who would turn out to be Drew Pomeranz. That foursome would combine for -2.1 bWAR, with Gardner never making it past Double-A. Likewise, the case for trading Luis Arraez is a murky one. While the reigning NL batting champ was recently on record as saying he was open to an extension with the club, after a 4-15 start to 2024, who is to say whether Arraez's feelings have shifted? Beyond personal feelings, what kind of player are you getting at this stage? Through 19 games this season, Arraez has hit .276/.353/.342/.695 with a lack of power by way of slug, hard-hit rates, and barrels that make for a limited though still singular offensive profile. While retaining his preternatural knack for not striking out—his outstanding 10.5 K% through April 17 actually being a career-worst—his once serviceable glove at second base has regressed to the suspect status that plagued it upon his trade to Miami. Arraez's minus-7 defensive runs saved currently rank worst among all position players, and his -7 Outs Above Average place him in the first percentile. Arraez, 27, is eligible for free agency after the 2025 campaign. After toiling for years as a high-strikeout and high-traffic reliever, Tanner Scott put it all together as a Marlin in 2023, posting a 2.31 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 78 innings. Scott even retained his status as a FIP-friendly reliever, as his mark of 2.17 suggested even the slightest of bad luck still came his way thanks, in large part, to cutting his walk rate from 15.9 to 7.8%. Come 2024, though, and it seems more of the old Tanner Scott has been of service to the Marlins. Through 8 ⅔ innings pitched and 44 batters faced, Scott has already walked 12 to the tune of a 27.3% walk rate. If he pitched like the sound of a Revolver-era Beatles cut in 2023, then 2024 has played out like his own Revolution 9 to this point. And while there is such thing as the concept of small sample size and eventual regression to career means, given Scott's rather erratic track record, we have a case of the bad outweighing the good. Of note, too, is Scott's impending free agency, as he will hit the open market after the 2024 season. Trading him at this year's deadline will likely be for cents on the dollar of what Miami could have fetched had they decided to unload their roster in the previous offseason. And while other Marlins relievers like Anthony Bender and Andrew Nardi have shown upside in their own right, Scott appeals more to teams given what the short-term commitment will cost them in prospect capital. This trade deadline is shaping up to be a seller's market with many clubs willing to part with minor leaguers for immediate upgrades who can aid them in tight postseason races. However, for the Marlins to come out of it feeling enthusiastic about the future, these star-caliber veterans will have to recapture their past greatness, boosting their market value accordingly. View full article

Luzardo labors again, bats fight back, but Ozuna has last laugh to take the series. It's the Marlins' fifth consecutive series loss. MIAMI, FL—If the 2024 Marlins were to write the first page of their resiliency arc, loanDepot park on Sunday would have made a great backdrop for the opening scene. Having overcome a four-run deficit earlier in the contest against arguably the most well-rounded team in the majors, the Atlanta Braves, the mood for Marlins fans, who were so often dealt losing blows early on in 2024, had to have been a cocktail of rare excitement and anxiety. Andrew Nardi, victim to an ERA north of 14 through his first 8 games pitched, looked more like last year's model, striking out the side in the top of the eighth, bridging the gap to Tanner Scott and his 1.35 ERA. As we have learned, trust in the small sample size and be doomed to fail. Scott, while one of the best relievers in baseball last season, had writing on the wall suggesting regression by way of a 5.50 FIP thanks to a bloated 27.3% BB rate entering the game Sunday. Clinging to a 7-6 lead, and after allowing a leadoff single to Ronald Acuña Jr., Scott buckled down to retire the next two hitters before issuing a 4-pitch walk to Matt Olson. The only person standing between Scott and the Marlins first series win of the season: arguably the sport's hottest hitter at the moment, Marcell Ozuna. Having hits in each of his previous 12 games entering play, and with two already on the afternoon, Ozuna worked the count 1-2 before a Scott slider that crossed below the knees was crushed some 409 feet into the AutoNation Alley in left-center field. With the Marlins on the brink of victory, what was once a small lead had evaporated into the ammonia of an eventual 9-7 loss. "(Ozuna) can hit it with the best of him," noted Scott. "I got two strikes on him and couldn't execute my pitch...I threw it in his honey hole." Still plagued by early-season inconsistencies, Jesús Luzardo gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings, leaving him with an ERA of 7.65 through 4 starts. After retiring the Braves in order in the top of the first, back-to-back hits by Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna materialized into Atlanta's first run of the day after an Adam Duvall sacrifice fly in the second. Contrary to the fruits bore in the first 15 games of the season, the fight and comeback spirit of the 2023 club seemed alive and well Sunday. In the bottom of the second, Bryan De La Cruz tied the score at 1-1 on the strength of his second home run of the young season. Two-spots from Atlanta in both the third and fourth gave them a commanding 5-1 lead, with one of those runs coming at the hands of the aforementioned Duvall, who hit his 11th career home run against Miami. While Luzardo was anything but sharp in his latest effort, the same could be said for Charlie Morton, who Miami tagged for 6 runs in his 5 ⅔ innings of work. Trailing 5-1 in the bottom half of the 4th, Miami inched closer on the heels of run-scoring hits from Jazz Chisholm Jr. and De La Cruz. In the following inning, Vidal Bruján, a non-factor at the plate by way of his .056 batting average, delivered his first extra-base hit as a Marlin that turned into the fourth Miami run, though he would later depart the game after he appeared to limp upon reaching second base. Bruján would be evaluated for a right knee injury upon leaving the game. The coup-de-gras of the Marlins' comeback, though, came in the bottom of the sixth when, after a Jesús Sánchez game-tying RBI single knocked Morton from the game, Nick Gordon continued his flare for the Sunday dramatic, hitting his third home run of the year to put the Fish ahead 7-5. In keeping with the back-and-forth nature of this contest, Atlanta would scratch across another run in the seventh to cut the deficit to one, where it would stay until Ozuna's blast in the top of the ninth. Miami, now 3-13, have been outscored 95 to 60 (-35 run differential) as they enter mid-April. Looking Ahead The Marlins will celebrate the 77th anniversary of Jackie Robinson's debut on Monday when they host Robinson's old rival, the San Francisco Giants. Since 2021, the Fish are 9-11 against San Francisco, falling 7-5 in their last meeting on 5/21/23. A.J. Puk (0-3, 5.91 ERA) is scheduled to start the series opener for Miami. First pitch from loanDepot park is slated for 6:40 EST. Of Note - Jake Burger exited Sunday's game with left oblique discomfort. Burger spent time on the IL in 2023 for the same issue while a member of the White Sox. - Sunday marked Miami's third loss of the season in a game in which they hit 2 or more home runs, tied for the most in the majors. View full article

The question of Edward Cabrera has never been one of whether his stuff will hold up, but if he can harness it. This could be his final chance to change the narrative and establish himself as a major league starter. Now more than ever, the quality of stuff across baseball is mesmerizing. The sport is rife with young hurlers whose blazing fastballs and wipeout secondary pitches seemingly give them the potential to become future stars on big league mounds. Alas, so few of them distinguish themselves as such, and from there, it's difficult to sustain excellence from one year to the next. For every Justin Verlander, there are another fifty hard-throwing MLB pitchers who wind up with unremarkable careers due to a combination of injuries and inability to hone their craft (both mechanically and tactically). For years, it's been easy to imagine Edward Cabrera ascending to an elite level. The 6'5" Marlins right-hander possesses the necessary stuff, a deep pitch mix with complementary weapons. In spurts, it has looked he is putting it all together, if not in the mold of Verlander 2.0, then maybe Sandy Alcantara lite? In 21 starts between 2021-22, Cabrera proved adept at preventing runs relative to his peers, boasting a 110 ERA+ (3.77 ERA) over those accompanying 98 innings pitched while also striking more than a batter an inning (9.5 K/9). It was, however, the command that failed him, as evidenced by a 4.8 BB/9. Of the 330 pitchers to throw at least 90 innings in this span, Cabrera ranked in the 4th percentile in that department. Reliever Tanner Scott, who became Cabrera's teammate in 2022, boasted the worst such rate at 6.4 BB/9. Thanks to this and a 1.5 HR/9, Cabrera had a 5.14 FIP in this span. The wide gap between that and his ERA suggested his good outcomes were rooted in luck and potential regression awaited him should these kinks not be ironed out. In 2023, Cabrera gave the Marlins 99 ⅔ innings. He set career bests in K's (118), HR/9 (1.0), and K/9 (10.7). His 4.43 FIP closely aligned with his 4.24 ERA (106 ERA+). However, his 6.0 BB/9 ranked 140th among the 141 pitchers to throw at least 90 innings, trailing only Michael Kopech of the White Sox (6.3). For this, Cabrera ranked in the 1st percentile in BB rate and was demoted to Triple-A for a brief period. What makes Cabrera's scant control particularly frustrating is that when he is throwing strikes, offensive output against him has been anemic, as evidenced by a .215 opponent batting average last season. This intersection of wildness and sparse batted ball damage puts Cabrera in the strangest of elite company. Only 18 times has a pitcher faced at least 400 hitters in a season while allowing a BB/9 of at least 6.0 and an opponent average of .215 or lower. Some of the names to do so include Nolan Ryan (3x), Randy Johnson (2x), Bob Turley (2x), Sam McDowell (1x), Herb Score (2x) and Mitch Williams (2x). A few days shy of his 26th birthday, the right-hander's body of work to this point suggests he can still eventually make that above-noted climb to elite starter status. Cabrera's encore performance has been delayed by a right shoulder impingement, but his 2024 Marlins debut is fast approaching. In his most recent rehab start on Wednesday, he authored 5 ⅔ strong innings against Triple-A competition. Control continues to be the critical question, though, as he issued eight free passes in 12 ⅔ total frames of rehab work (5.7 BB/9). A silver lining to the Marlins' abysmal 1-11 start to the season is they can afford to be patient with Cabrera. With Sandy Alcantara and Eury Pérez both on the shelf this year, there are fewer internal candidates to squeeze him out of the starting rotation. The pressure on the organization to stay in the postseason hunt is not as intense as it was a year ago. The conditions are apt for a Cabrera breakout. View full article

Ten games, ten runs and one rain delay later, the Marlins finally held on to collect their first win of the 2024 season. The last time the Miami Marlins won a regular season game, they celebrated on the infield of PNC Park after clinching an NL Wild Card spot on September 30, 2023. That was 190 days ago. Even after storming out to a 6-0 lead in the top of the first on the strength of Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Nick Gordon three-run home runs, any suspicion felt by fans and followers of a club off to a franchise-worst 0-9 start was understandably merited. Fortunately, for Miami's sake, Max Meyer did everything to quell the doubters. En route to his first career Major League win, and making just his fourth career appearance, Meyer held the Cardinals to just 1 run and 3 hits over 6 innings, also collecting his first quality start in the process as the Marlins finally secured their first win of the season, beating the Cardinals, 10-3. Meyer opened the afternoon retiring the first 13 hitters in order before a Nolan Gorman home run that fell out of the glove of center fielder Chisholm snapped the skid. Meyer also became the club's first starter to reach the 6-inning mark in 2024. In two starts for the team this season, the 25-year-old boasts a 2.45 ERA, limiting opponents to a measly .132 batting average. "Max was the real story today," noted manager Skip Schumaker. "He just has a ninth-inning mentality for a starter...and he has a real bright future with this ballclub." Speaking on the team finally snapping the season-opening skid, Schumaker, visibly relieved, noted it "nice to finally give those guys in there something to smile about." Though he allowed 7 runs through his first two innings of work, St. Louis' Kyle Gibson still managed to deliver 6 innings to his hometown club. Since debuting in 2013, Gibson's 8 outings of at least 5 innings pitched and 7 runs allowed are tied with teammate Lance Lynn for the most among active pitchers. After setting a new-season high with their 8th run of the day in the seventh, Miami added a two-spot in the top of the 8th to secure their first double-digit scoring game of the season, with the club's tenth run scoring on a Jake Burger sacrifice fly that wrapped up a two-home run, four-RBI welcome home weekend for the St. Louis native. Holding a commanding 9-run lead entering the bottom of the ninth, the rain that had commenced the inning prior intensified to the point that tarps were drawn, resulting in a one-hour rain delay. Miami's first win which had so long eluded them, would have to wait. Once the tarp came off and the field was deemed suitable for play at 5:20 ET, Matt Andriese—working in his first big league game since 9/27/21—worked around Gorman's second home run of the day as Miami wrapped up a 10-3 victory to exit St. Louis winless no more. 1.mp4 Looking Ahead From the Midwest to the Big Apple, Miami will travel to the Bronx to begin a series against the AL East-leading New York Yankees (8-2). In what was originally set to be a 2:05 EST start, the game was pushed back to 6:05 in response to Monday's solar eclipse. Game 1 will see a matchup of southpaws, as Jesús Luzardo (0-1, 4.35 ERA) will look for redemption against a Yankees team that accounted for Luzardo's worst outing of the 2023 season. In just 3.1 innings on August 11, the Bronx Bombers tagged Luzardo for 9 hits and 7 runs, resulting in a season-worst 15 game score. New York will counter with 2022 AL All-Star Nestor Cortes (0-1, 6.30 ERA). Of Note - Meyer's 64 game score Sunday registered as the best such mark from a Marlins starter thus far in 2024, beating out Luzardo's mark of 61 set back on Opening Day. - With his 4-hit day in the victory, Luis Arraez's 14 such games since debuting in 2019 are fourth-most in baseball in baseball in that span. - News broke midgame of the Marlins' decision this past offseason to void the 2025 club option for Skip Schumaker. The reigning NL Manager of the Year, Schumaker is set to become a free agent at the end of the 2024 season. View full article

Here's how the newest Miami Marlin could potentially fit into their short-term plans. Tuesday saw the Miami Marlins already in transaction mode, as the club acquired INF Emmanuel Rivera from the Arizona Diamondbacks for cash considerations, designating FOF #7 prospect Jacob Amaya for assignment in the process. With infield prospect Blaze Alexander making the club out of spring training, Christian Walker entrenched at first base and offseason acquisition Eugenio Suárez assuming primary duties at third base, Rivera became expendable for the defending National League champions, so he was recently being DFA'd himself ahead of Opening Day. In 217 games across parts of three seasons, Rivera owns a .247/.304/.380/.684 slash line (89 OPS+), with his best stretch of offensive play coming in his 39-game audition upon being traded to Arizona from Kansas City in 2022. In that time, Rivera hit just .227, but his 6 home runs and 8 doubles made up for what his batting average would suggest, as evidenced by a 104 OPS+. A major thorn in Rivera's cap thus far in his big league career is his noticeably superior numbers against left-handed pitching. In 249 career plate appearances against southpaws, Rivera owns a .739 OPS, 83 points higher than his .656 mark against righties. Through their first 6 games of play, the Marlins have a collective .545 OPS against lefties (ranking 25th among MLB teams). 1.mp4 And though Miami would welcome the prospect of more offensive production in line with 2022 Rivera, where he appears best equipped to help the club is with the leather. While he has 94 big league innings under his belt at first base, the vast majority of Rivera’s defensive experience—and, for that matter, acumen— comes from his time spent at third. In 1,394 innings logged at the hot corner, Rivera has graded out as plus-nine defensive runs saved (DRS) and plus-eight total zone runs (Rtot). Possessing the ability to man both infield corners, Rivera looks to potentially occupy a role similar of the recently traded Jon Berti. Berti—who put up 7.7 bWAR in parts of 5 seasons with Miami—saw time at six defensive positions, leading the NL with 41 stolen bases in 2022. On March 27, the eve of Opening Day, the Marlins traded their utilityman to the New York Yankees in exchange for OF John Cruz in a three-team deal with Tampa Bay that also saw Miami acquire OF Shane Sasaki. Rivera's presence will help to provide some defensive stability to a starting infield that features four suspect defenders: first baseman Josh Bell has amassed minus-33 defensive runs saved at the position and has graded out as below-average in each of his 8 seasons played; Luis Arraez is generally viewed as a bat-first player at second base; newly-minted shortstop Tim Anderson posted the worst DRS among infielders in 2023 (minus-16); and Jake Burger, like Bell, has consistently graded out as below-average. Rivera would allot Burger the opportunity to see more time at first base, a position he's already appeared in 3 games at in 2024, and relegate Bell to the lion's share of DH duties. Speaking to the media before Tuesday's 3-1 loss to the Angels—which saw the team fall to 0-6 for the first time in franchise history—manager Skip Schumaker said he expects Rivera to see time across the infield upon joining the club. Not yet eligible for arbitration, Rivera is inexpensive for the Fish in 2024 and potentially under club control through the 2027 season if his production continues to merit an active roster spot. View full article

The bats erupted early and returned late, but some costly defensive miscues and continued lack of command saw Miami drop fourth straight. It's their worst start to a season in nearly a quarter-century. MIAMI, FL—Looking to avoid their first 0-4 start to the season since 2001, the Miami Marlins would need Trevor Rogers—making his first start in nearly 12 months—to give their already-labored pitching staff a slight reprieve. From the outset, it seemed as if the former All-Star would make good on this, retiring the Pirates in order on 11 pitches in the top of the first. Adding onto this honeymoon phase of a start, each of the first five Marlins hitters reached base safely against Pittsburgh's Bailey Falter, punctuated by Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s fourth career grand slam. Miami's first home run of the season snapped a 30-inning homerless streak to begin the season. Come the second inning, though, things for Rogers and Co. would quickly spiral out of control. After a Jake Suwinski one-out, infield single, Miami left fielder Bryan De La Cruz made a pair of costly defensive miscues, the second of which resulted in a two-run triple for Alika Williams. Rogers wound up throwing 38 pitches and surrendering 3 runs in that second inning, bringing his pitch count to 49 at a time when the Marlins could all but afford to have him not give them length. "The adrenaline was definitely pumping in that first inning," said Rogers. "You take away some of the unlucky things that happened, the walks...it puts me in a really good spot." Fortunately, and despite giving up a fourth run on the day in the top of the fourth, Rogers powered through 5 innings of what can best be deemed as "wildly sufficient," walking 4 and striking out 6. "Besides that second inning, I thought Trevor looked really good," noted manager Skip Schumaker. Encouraging, too, was Rogers' fastball, which experienced a slight dip in velocity in his last Grapefruit League outing, sitting 89-92 mph. On Sunday, Rogers' four-seam fastball consistently sat 92-94, even reaching 95 a few times early. Clinging to a one-run lead in the bottom of the fourth, Avisaíl García, the subject of choruses of boos in the season's opening weekend, tattooed a first-pitch splitter 421 feet over the right-center field wall for his first home run of the season. García's blast marked his first long ball since April 26 of last year when he took Atlanta's Bryce Elder deep. Recently recalled and making his debut Sunday, Vladimir Gutierrez worked in a fashion similar to Rogers, authoring a brisk 1-2-3 top of the sixth before trouble struck him in his second inning of work. That trouble would be fully realized when, in the bottom of the seventh, Rowdy Tellez—who was 0-for-3 with 3 strikeouts to that point in the afternoon—picked the perfect time to deliver his first Pirates home run, as his three-run blast gave Pittsburgh a 7-6 lead, one they would hold heading into the bottom of the 9th. After Garcia struck out to begin the inning, Nick Gordon—pinch-hitting for another Nick, Fortes—reinvigorated Marlins fans with a fleeting sense of hope when he hit his second-career pinch-hit home run (previously 5/2/23 v. CHW), a solo shot against Pittsburgh closer David Bednar to even the score at 7-7. But before Marlins fans could even pontificate on the notion of what a win in 2024 would feel like, Tanner Scott fell victim to some horrendous hybrid of Pirates small ball and substandard infield defense as the game entered extras. The Pirates would plate a pair of runs en route to securing 9-7 victory and four-game sweep to begin the regular season 4-0. 1.mp4 Now 0-4 to begin the season for the first time in twenty-three years, the Marlins have allowed 31 runs in that stretch, tied for the worst such mark to begin a season in franchise history (1998, 2003). "It's definitely frustrating, especially when you're up 5-0," noted Schumaker. "Our bullpen is absolutely gassed, there's guys in different roles, and I don't know what those roles are, but lately, we're just trying to get through games, which is not how you want to utilize your bullpen, but we'll get there." Of Note - Early rotation woes: Through their first 4 games of the season, Marlins starters have pitched to a collective 7.31 ERA (13 ER in 16 IP). - Miami's 26 walks allowed are the most through their first 4 games to open a season in franchise history. Looking Ahead Miami will try for a fifth time to pick up their first victory of the season on Monday. Max Meyer will make his first Major League appearance since July 2022 when he takes the hill for Monday's series opener against the Angels. Currently ranked as the club's #3 prospect, per MLB.com, Meyer missed all of 2023 after recovering from Tommy John surgery. Opposing him, Chase Silseth (4-1, 3.96 ERA in 2023), will toe the rubber for Los Angeles. First pitch from loanDepot park is slated for 6:40 EST. View full article

In their final contest before the games count for real, the Marlins took care of business against their division rivals. JUPITER, FL—Before venturing home to Miami ahead of their 32nd season of play, the Miami Marlins would host the New York Mets for one final Grapefruit League tune-up at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium. Darren McCaughan, acquired from Seattle over the offseason, tossed three perfect innings for Miami, registering 3 strikeouts in the process against the Mets B-team. The 28-year-old Long Beach native is set to open the year in Triple-A Jacksonville. Miami plated the game's first run thanks to a Luis Arraez 3rd-inning, RBI single. Arraez concluded the spring hitting .386, driving in 4. The Marlins touched up Tylor Megill for 3 runs over 5 innings in his final outing, with the club's second and third runs coming on a two-run single from newly acquired INF/OF Nick Gordon. Sunday, too, brought with it some bonus bits of feel-good vibes for Sixto Sánchez. After learning he made the Opening Day roster on Friday, Sánchez tossed 2 scoreless innings in Miami's 5-1 victory. In 9 innings spread across 6 appearances this spring, the right-hander held the opposition scoreless, striking out 8. Of initial concern, reliever Andrew Nardi's fastball velocity was down, averaging just 91 mph on the day. In 2023, Nardi's four-seamer averaged 94.6. Nardi's slider (-2.1 mph) and split-change (-1.9) were noticeably down from the previous year as well. Speaking postgame, Nardi called it "nothing to worry about," further stating it was "just one of those days." Of Note - Miami concludes their 2024 Grapefruit League slate having finished at or below .500 for the third straight spring (7-7 in 2022, 7-16 in 2023 and 10-12-5 in 2024). - Updated spring training stats for individual Marlins players are available here. - The Marlins will play an intrasquad at loanDepot Park on Tuesday. Edward Cabrera (shoulder stiffness) is set to appear in it. Looking Ahead The Marlins' next time taking the field will be under the bright lights of loanDepot park when they square off against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Opening Day, Thursday, March 28. Jesús Luzardo, coming off a strong 2023 season that saw him strike out 208 hitters over 178 ⅔ innings pitched, will make his first career Opening Day start. Pittsburgh will counter with Mitch Keller. An NL All-Star in 2023, Keller won 13 games while tossing 194 ⅓ innings, helping him net a five-year/$77M extension at the outset of spring training. First pitch is slated 4:10 EST. View full article

Edward Cabrera exited before throwing a pitch in his 3rd outing scheduled of the spring, but a troupe of hurlers kept with his wild ways in the loss. JUPITER, FL—While the morning clouds and accompanying rain came and went in Jupiter, an air of gloom lingered around the Marlins throughout Sunday afternoon. Before throwing his first pitch in what was set to be his 3rd Grapefruit League outing, Edward Cabrera was removed with an apparent injury. The soon-to-be 26-year-old had just commenced his warm-up pitches when team trainer Rick Lembo and manager Skip Schumaker made their way out to the mound. The Marlins described the issue as right shoulder tightness. "It started tightening up in the bullpen, and when I went out there, it still felt tight," noted Cabrera. Though the question of whether he'll make his next start is yet to be answered, Cabrera noted feeling better once coming into the clubhouse to do some stretching drills. "It's early March and he wanted to stay out there, but it didn't make sense for me to have him push through for a couple of innings in spring training," said Skip Schumaker. In 5 innings this spring, Cabrera had not allowed an earned run and was slated for approximately 65 pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals. In his absence, the pair of Devin Smeltzer and Matt Andriese—both non-roster invitees this spring—combined to give the Marlins 3 ⅔ innings of 6-run ball, allowing 8 hits while walking 4 in Miami's 12-8 loss to the Cardinals that took 3 hours and 24 minutes to complete. On the day, Marlins pitchers combined to issue 12 walks, all coming at the hands of 6 relievers, who each walked a pair of hitters. INF Thomas Saggese, the 5th-ranked Cardinals prospect, showed off why he may soon turn heads at the big league level, going 4-for-4 with 6 RBI. In 23 at-bats this spring, the 21-year-old Saggese has hit .391 with 9 RBI. On the other side of the coin, the Marlins bore the fruits of another multi-hit day for Luis Arraez, as well as Josh Bell, who walloped his first home run of the spring with a two-run shot in the 3rd. 75d57042-350296d0-234184b0-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 In another feel-good story during an otherwise dread of an afternoon, Sunday also marked the return of Troy Johnston. Johnston, who injured his ankle in a game against the Phillies on March 1, went 1-4 with a BB, 2 RBI, and 2 K's in the loss. Looking Ahead Miami will head north to Port St. Lucie to square off against their division rival New York Mets. Trevor Rogers will make his second start of the spring, as he looks to build off the 2 scoreless innings he put forth against Houston on March 5. View full article

A mere half-hour following the cancellation of the club's matchup against the Cardinals in Jupiter, inclement weather reared its ugly head in West Palm Beach, taking with it the Marlins' scheduled meeting with the Nationals. WEST PALM BEACH, FL—Miami Marlins fans salivating for the opportunity to enjoy 18 innings of spring training baseball on Sunday have to make alternate arrangements. Not one, but both split-squad contests that the Marlins had been scheduled to play were called off due to rain. Miami's 1:05 ET matchup versus the St. Louis Cardinals at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium was canceled shortly after its planned start time. A.J. Puk, slated to make his second spring start in that contest, was then announced as the starter in the then-still-on game against the Nationals at CACTI Ballpark of the Palm Beaches (taking priority over NRI Yonny Chirinos). Manager Skip Schumaker and pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. were going to make the trip from Jupiter to West Palm Beach for Puk's start. Alas, precipitation caused problems there as well. Neither of these games will be made up at a later date. Weather permitting, the Marlins hope to play 20 more Grapefruit League exhibitions in the coming weeks. They've posted a 2-3-3 record through the first eight contests. Looking Ahead Miami is expected to be back in action Monday when they'll host the New York Yankees in Jupiter at 6:40 ET. Puk will get the starting nod and be relieved by Edward Cabrera, who was originally lined up to start. Be sure to follow along here at Fish On First for all future updates. View full article

While Luzardo proved sharp in his spring debut, the Nationals provided a potential glimpse into the future in their comeback victory over Miami Sunday. JUPITER, FL—After emerging victorious in their Grapefruit League opener against St. Louis on Saturday, the Marlins returned to Roger Dean, this time as the home team, falling 6-3 in their inaugural meeting against their division rival Washington Nationals. Making his spring debut, Jesús Luzardo looked to be in mid-season form, tossing two perfect innings, striking out 3. Luzardo, who led the club with 208 punchouts in 2023, consistently sat 95-97 mph with his fastball. "My main goal was to go out there and fill it (the strike zone) up," said Luzardo. Noted to be working on refining his changeup in 2024, Luzardo, 26, threw 6 said pitches (all for strikes), inducing 3 outs in the process. 067b3d69-58d4350f-3dd92699-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 Opposing him, MacKenzie Gore, though allowing a run via a Christian Bethancourt 2nd inning RBI single, held his own in his spring debut, striking out 4 in his 2 innings of work. Miami would plate their second run in the bottom of the 3rd by way of another newcomer, utility man Nick Gordon, who singled home Luis Arraez. Arraez, the defending NL batting champ, went 0-for-2 with a strikeout in his spring debut, reaching on a fielder's choice in his second at-bat. In what felt like a preview of what's to come in the nation's capital, outfielder James Wood, the centerpiece in the trade that sent Juan Soto to San Diego at the 2022 trade deadline, authored his second home run in as many days with a two-run shot that evened the score in the 4th. In his first two spring contests, Wood has OPS'd a 2.100 clip. Old friend Lewin Díaz delivered a payback blow to his former employer when he crushed a two-run homer of his own off recently acquired Calvin Faucher in the top of the 6th. Known as an all-field, no-hit first baseman whilst in Miami (plus-16 DRS, 1.2 dWAR), Díaz hit just .181/.227/.340 in 343 plate appearances between 2020-22. Though Miami would tack on a third run in the 8th following a Marty Costes sacrifice fly that scored Troy Johnston (3-for-3 on Sunday), Washington's parade of relievers limited the damage to close out the win. Reflecting on Johnston, who hit 26 home runs and stole 20 bases between AA and AAA last season, manager Skip Schumaker spoke glowingly of the 26-year old. "He's hitting lefties, righties, he's running the bases well. He's looking like a big leaguer." Of Note Sunday marked the return to the mound for reliever Anthony Bender, who authored a scoreless 3rd inning that saw him strike out third baseman Trey Lispcomb. Missing all of 2023 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery at the end of the 2022 season, Bender owns a career 2.90 ERA in 82 games pitched. Speaking to the media pre-game, manager Skip Schumaker noted the club expects recently signed Tim Anderson to see game action in the coming days. NRI Trey Mancini's slow start to spring continued, going 0-2 with 2 more K's. He's struck out in all 4 plate appearances to begin Grapefruit League play. Looking Ahead The Marlins will return to action at Roger Dean Stadium Monday where they'll again match up against their facility roommates, the St. Louis Cardinals, at 1:10 ET. Eury Pérez is slated to start for Miami. After serving as the home team in their first meeting on February 24, Miami will assume home field, as they did Sunday. View full article

From the good, the bad, and the potentially concerning, we're going to look at notable individual pitch types by members of the 2023 club and explain why they ought to be ones to watch for during the 2024 season. When watching or listening to a baseball game broadcast, "announcers discussing certain pitch types" might as well be a free space on your bingo board. You'll inevitably hear "Player A's best pitch is..." or "his bread-and-butter offering" to segue from one plate appearance to the next. The Miami Marlins were led to the 2023 postseason by their pitching staff, whose collective 17.5 fWAR ranked eighth in the majors. Let's examine a handful of intriguing individual pitch types belonging to members of that staff and explain why they ought to be ones to watch for during the 2024 season. Note: The metric we'll most commonly cite, Pitching Run Value, is defined according to Baseball Savant as, "the run impact of an event based on the runners on base, outs, ball and strike count." Other factors that were considered when putting this piece together included plate appearances (PA), batting average and expected batting average (BA and xBA), slugging percentage and expected slugging percentage (SLG and xSLG) and hard-hit rate (Hard Hit%), to name a few. Just Missed Max Meyer's slider: Tommy John surgery midway through 2022 leaves Meyer's slider as one built more on reputation at the prep and lower levels, With all of just six innings to show in his first taste of the big leagues, Meyer whirled off 41 sliders, briefly showcasing the pitch's potential (.154 xBA, 50 K%). Leaving him off was an easy decision entering this year. However, a healthy Meyer in 2024 could show us why that pitch received a 70-future grade on FanGraphs and why the outlet continues to rank him as Miami's top overall prospect. Sandy Alcantara's sinker: Were it not for the fact that Alcantara is set to miss all of 2024 as he recovers from Tommy John, Alcantara's sinker most definitely would have made an appearance on this list. For now, though, we'll include this little blurb highlighting a pitch that authored a positive-14 run value, sixth among all sinkerballers. Jesús Luzardo's slider: On the surface, a negative-4 run value would suggest Luzardo's slider was a liability in his repertoire, but there's enough here (at least for my sake) to propose it was much better. A .233 average, while respectable on its own merits, proved Luzardo a victim of poor luck considering his xBA of .170 and .288 xSLG. Among the 18 hurlers to have at least 200 PA ending in sliders, only Spencer Strider's .162 xBA proved lower. Notable too was the 52.7% K-rate "Zeus" generated on the pitch, tops among pitchers with at least 100 PA ending on sliders. The List Jesús Luzardo's four-seam fastball Kicking off the list with some heat, we have Luzardo and his primary offering. While Sandy Alcantara's four-seamer is thrown harder (98.0 mph to Luzardo's 96.7 mph), it is Luzardo's that earns the nod here, as he possesses the rotation's best fastball. Registering a plus-16 run value, by far the best such pitch on the 2023 club and tied with 2021 Trevor Rogers for most run value by a Marlins four-seamer since the metric's introduction in 2019, hitters fared to the tune of a .230 average and .381 slugging percentage against Luzardo's heater. While grading out highly, Luzardo's fastball is here in large part due to his prolific use of the pitch—his 1,375 four-seamers were 18th-most in all of baseball in 2023. On a rate basis, pitchers such as Andrew Nardi and Tanner Scott (1.6 RV/100) and Huascar Brazoban (1.3) threw the pitch more efficiently than Luzardo (1.2), and much of the batted ball data (.267 xBA, .478 xSLG) all point to signs of potential regression should the underlying and surface-level numbers meet somewhere in the middle. How hitters fare against Luzardo—the presumed Marlins Opening Day starter—and his blazing fastball will be something that will come to define his continued success in 2024. Edward Cabrera's changeup "A year ago, the other Baltimore Orioles took to calling them Cy Young, Cy Old, Cy Present, and Cy Future. That, perhaps, is because the only thing that Mike Flanagan, Jim Palmer, Steve Stone, and Scott McGregor have in common is their uncommon excellence on a pitcher's mound." This, from a 1981 piece by famed Washington Post columnist Thomas Boswell, feels loosely applicable to the current-look Marlins and their core of young, phenom-esque pitchers: Cy Young—Edward Cabrera Cy Old—Sandy Alcantara Cy Present—Jesús Luzardo Cy Future—Eury Pérez Though the first 200-or-so innings of his big league career have been ravaged by command problems (1st percentile in BB%. 2023) and sheer putaway stuff (6.6 H/9, 10.1 K/9), Cabrera has all of the makings of the potential league's best pitcher. As Luzardo's fastball does, Cabrera's changeup ranks in the 95th percentile in offspeed run value, posting a plus-9 mark in 2023. Among 58 pitchers to complete at least 100 PA on the pitch, Cabrera ranked 9th in RV/100, 1.6, while the .171 xBA ranked 7th. The aurora in Cabrera's changeup comes mostly with how hard he throws it, as evidenced by an average velocity of 92.9 mph (third among 224 changeup pitchers). While I won't rush to call it the best single pitch on this Marlins club, given how the numbers under the hood suggest it could be even better, Cabrera finally putting things together will largely depend on him continuing to befuddle hitters with his potent offspeed. Braxton Garrett's cutter TVpyZ1lfVjBZQUhRPT1fQVZNQUJWRlFYMVlBQzFOV1VRQUFBUThIQUZsUVZnTUFCMVlEQjFKV0NBQlNCMU1F.mp4 While his slider may be the superior pitch by what most metrics would indicate, Garrett's cutter earns the mention here. After he cameoed the pitch a handful of times in 2022, Garrett made regular use of the pitch last season, throwing it 17.7 percent of the time. His efforts in increased usage were awarded by way of a plus-7 run value, making it a top-20 pitch on those merits alone. It earns mention here, though, due to signs pointing to that perceived effectiveness dissipating. "It was intriguing when he added it last season, but I don't see what's remarkable about it given the pedestrian results," noted Fish On First founder Ely Sussman. While the league hit just .243 on his cutter, the 48.9-percent hard-hit rate—second-highest among 43 pitchers with at least 100 PA ending on the pitch—gives hitters an xBA of .315 (40th of 43) and xSLG and xwOBA of .573 and .383 (both 41st). While he may employ some of the game's best command, Garrett will have to resemble something akin to Greg Maddux to get away with his frequent cutter usage if he wishes to continue to succeed in getting hitters out. Tanner Scott's slider The first five-plus seasons of Tanner Scott's career made you feel for the guy. Among the 128 relievers to throw at least 200 innings between 2017-2022, Scott's 0.7 ERA-to-FIP variance ranked fifth-worst. His first season in Miami was no exception, as evidenced by his 3.67 FIP and 12.9 K/9 next to his 4.31 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. Then, in 2023, he put it all together, authoring maybe the best-pitched season by a reliever in Marlins history, posting a 2.31 ERA, and setting the single-season club record for strikeouts by a reliever (104). Suffice it to say Scott couldn't have done so without the use of his slider, a pitch that registered a plus-16 run value. Among NL pitchers to have at least 100 PA end on the pitch, only Cincinnati's Alexis Díaz and Lucas Sims registered a higher RV/9 than Scott's 2.5. Like Cabrera's changeup, the results against Scott's primary offering were anemic. Hitters hit a paltry .173 with a .237 SLG, with no luck to speak of, as the underlying metrics would suggest (.180 xBA, .229 xSLG). While Luzardo may have thrown the better slider in terms of generating whiffs (51.8% to Scott's 40.3%), Scott being a two-pitch pitcher means the lack of an elite offering off his fastball could signal disaster for him moving forward, making it evermore paramount he continues to mow hitters down with it. A.J. Puk's sweeper "A zero run value? Why is it on this list?!?" Sure, this isn't akin to most other pitches on this list, but what if I told you there's more than meets the eye about Puk's sweeper? While hitters hit .241, we see by way of a 19% hard-hit rate and .237 xwOBA bad luck intertwined with the randomness of baseball. Of the 55 hurlers to complete at least 50 PA with this pitch, Puk accounted for the sixth-lowest hard-hit rate, while posting the 14th-best whiff rate, all while it was the second most-frequented pitch in his arsenal. Given the peripherals and the fact that Miami is slated to stretch him out as a starter in Spring Training, how Puk utilizes the sweeper in 2024 will provide a fascinating insight into his evolution as a pitcher. Eury Pérez's curveball If Eury Pérez showed us anything in his 91-inning introduction to the Majors last season, it is that he throws not one, not two, not three, but possibly four plus-pitches. By run value, his four-seam, slider, curveball, and changeup were all net-positives, with none of those proving more valuable than his slider (+9), but our pick is the 20-year-old's curveball. There were 173 pitchers in 2023 who completed at least 25 PA with curveballs. By several metrics within the confines of this query, Pérez's curveball is a bonafide-top 10 offering of its kind. Hitters hit .098 (fourth-lowest), posted an xBA of .122 (seventh-lowest), slugged .171 (seventh-lowest), and whiffed 54.3 percent of the time (second-lowest). It's also worth noting the consistently weak contact he generates on the pitch, as batted balls averaged just 79.5 mph off Pérez's curve. This, as well as Pérez's aforementioned slider, explains why his breaking ball run value ranks in the 95th percentile. In a year where the team is set to be Alcantara-less, Eury is poised to be the pitcher we all ought to fawn over the most. View full article

Here, we'll explore several straight-up deals the Fish could make in hopes of addressing current and future needs across their major and minor league rosters. We're nearing the pitchers and catchers report date, marking the commencement of Spring Training. The familiar sounds of ball popping mitt and bat meeting ball will soon signal baseball's emergence from its winter slumber as the National Pastime readies itself for another year of play. For Marlins fans, though, they are straining to generate enthusiasm following an offseason of relative inactivity. Beyond the front office restructuring, Miami sits here in early February still the only club yet to sign a player to a guaranteed Major League deal. Such behavior in the wake of the team's first full-season playoff appearance since their World Series-winning 2003 has largely washed away the optimism that 2023 wrought. We noted recently what this approach (or lack thereof) may signal for the club's fortunes, but this shouldn't preclude discussion about how Miami could go about salvaging what has become of the current organization. Peter Bendix inherited a Major League club with an ill-defined core complimented by a minor league system with little in the way of reinforcements. Waiver-wire pickups won't suffice. Bendix has raved about the quality and depth of the Marlins' pitching. Let's see him use it to alleviate their concerns at other positions. Note: The viability of these hypothetical transactions were assessed using the Baseball Trade Values trade simulator. Miami Marlins trade SP Edward Cabrera to the St. Louis Cardinals for 2B Thomas Saggese We begin with a potential trade where the Marlins may be getting less than what they're parting with, though a move such as this potentially addresses more needs than just one. Even without former NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara contributing in 2024 following Tommy John surgery, Miami still has an influx of young, controllable starting pitching, of which they could parlay for future impact position players. Acquired in the deal that saw Jordan Montgomery head to Texas, Saggese—St. Louis' fourth-ranked prospect, according to Baseball Prospectus—hit .331 with a .662 SLG in 33 G for AA Springfield before earning the call to AAA for a 13-game cup of coffee to end a 2023 that saw him slash a combined .306/.374/.530/.904 in just his age-21 season. Though primarily a second baseman, Saggese also has seen time at short (37 GS), third (93 GS), and first (1 GS), which, when complimented with his uptick in power by way of his 26 home runs last season could make him a valuable big leaguer in due time. Current 2B Luis Arraez has made it known that he is open to a potential long-term extension. Nothing is reportedly close to materializing on that front, however, so Saggese would serve as a worthy heir to the position should Arraez not be long for South Florida. As for Cabrera, he has shown an aptitude for putting hitters away (10.1 K/9)—a trait that Cardinals POBO John Mozeliak has said the club is searching for—and limiting hits (6.6 H/9). He also excels at allowing free passes (5.4 BB/9), thus his 1.34 WHIP and 4.78 FIP suggest room for improvement. Given St. Louis' recent success with re-tuning starting pitchers (see Miles Mikolas and the aforementioned Montgomery), who is to say Cabrera couldn't follow in those their footsteps and turn into the ace his stuff suggests he can be? Though Saggese's strong season and accompanying track record (.298/.369/.508/.878) could make him a tough piece to part with, Cabrera's five years of club control may be the sales pitch needed to consummate this deal. Miami Marlins trade SP Max Meyer to the San Francisco Giants for OF Rayner Arias On the surface, this trade seems a bit of a stretch: a former college-level pitcher already with big-league experience being swapped for a 17-year-old with all of just 16 games in professional ball. This presents both high-risk and high-upside potential. Meyer, Miami's third-ranked prospect even after undergoing Tommy John in the second half of the 2022 season, got a brief taste of big league hitters via a 6-inning cameo that season and remains under club control through 2028. Pairing a mid-90s fastball with a 60-grade slider, Meyer is merely a changeup away from solidifying his place in a big-league rotation. For a Giants starting rotation projected 17th in SP WAR, per FanGraphs, the addition of Meyer, who will most certainly see his innings capped as works his way back from surgery, could provide a nice bridge to the likes of recently-signed Jordan Hicks, who the team plans to stretch out as a starter after spending his first five seasons in the bullpen. Though an injury limited his pro debut to just 16 games, Rayner Arias—already the club's fifth-ranked prospect—showed why he may be the next big star no one is talking about. In 76 plate appearances in the Dominican Summer League, the teenager hit like 1941 Ted Williams, slashing an absurd .414/.539/.793, hitting 4 home runs while also swiping 4 bases, totaling a 230 wRC+. Impressive, too, was his plate discipline, as Arias walked more times (15) than he struck out (11). Expected to be healthy at the outset of spring training, a longer run of games in his eventual stateside debut could see his stock continue to rise as he refines his still-raw game, so trading him now may be out of the Giants' plans. All of this being said, given the club's top pitching prospect, Kyle Harrison, appears ready to jump into a full-time big league role, Meyer would keep San Francisco's minor league pipeline going, while allowing for impact at the highest level in short order. Miami Marlins trade RP Anthony Bender to the Chicago Cubs for 3B James Triantos If you've picked up on a trend here, points for you and your intuitive nature. If not, the Miami Marlins have very little in the way of position players worth dealing for prospects, thus here we see a third pitcher being dealt in hopes of strengthening the sport's 27th-ranked farm system. Bender, like the aforementioned Meyer, missed all of 2023 after undergoing Tommy John, though when healthy, proved one of the sport's more effective late-inning arms. Between 2021-22, Bender was among the 25 relievers to toss at least 80 innings with an ERA+ of 140 or better while allowing fewer than 7 H/9. His 0.9 HR/9 ranked 6th-best among that list of hurlers. Recently declaring himself "healthy" ahead of camp, Bender should slide back into Miami's bullpen in 2024, where he'll remain under club control through 2027. Ranked just outside of the Cubs' top-10 prospects list at Baseball America following the 2023 season, Triantos, after seeing extended time at 3rd base in 2022, flaunted his positional versatility, moonlighting at second, short, left, and even center field, hitting a modest .287/.364/.391/.755 in the process. Though power doesn't appear a major asset currently (30-grade game, 45-grade raw), Triantos has been an above-average minor league bat, posting wRC+'s of 143, 102, and 115, respectively. Though his 6'1", 195-pound build projects him more as a 2B long term, should he stick at 3B, conservatively assuming he arrives in 2025, Miami could use this as leverage to move another bat recently acquired from the Windy City, Jake Burger, across the diamond to 1st. In 2023, Burger finished in both the 40th and 3rd percentiles respectively in arm strength and outs above average (OAA). View full article

Rather than "continue the momentum" of 2023, new Marlins front office leadership has seemingly succumbed to gloomy near-term projections and opted for idleness. “Is this the end of the beginning? Or the beginning of the end? Losing control or are you winning? Is your life real or just pretend?” The opening lyrics from heavy metal forebearers Black Sabbath’s “End of the Beginning” can be made applicable to the fortunes of your favorite player’s respective peak, or your hometown club’s window to win. The 2023 Marlins took us on a long, strange trip en route to 84 wins and a surprise playoff appearance. Their achievements came in spite of being outscored on the season by a record 57 runs. Their behavior during this ensuing offseason reeks of an organization not believing in the validity of the recent transpiring events. Within two weeks of their elimination from the National League Wild Card Series, pioneering GM Kim Ng and the organization mutually parted ways. Ng was reportedly offered an opportunity to stay for 2024, but she would not be receiving her intended promotion to president of baseball operations. Rather, owner Bruce Sherman intended on searching elsewhere for a POBO to leapfrog her on the chain of command. No less than a month later, on November 6, Miami was again in the news, announcing their hiring of then-Rays GM Peter Bendix in the role Ng had aspired to take on. The plucking of a Tampa Bay brainiac to lead baseball ops —Andrew Friedman (Dodgers, 2014) Chaim Bloom (Red Sox, 2019), and James Click (Astros, 2020) —has been something of a trend across Major League Baseball, culminating in championships for several clubs. “Peter is an established industry leader with an extensive skillset and deep experience that will continue the momentum we have made on the Major League level," Sherman said in the initial press release. And then, the offseason rolled on, and Bendix instead brought that "momentum" to a halt. OF/DH Jorge Soler opted out of the final year of his three-year pact. The Marlins declined to issue Soler a qualifying offer. "They haven’t ruled out bringing him back if he settles for a low-money deal," reports Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. "But that’s considered unlikely." Eleven days into his Miami tenure, Bendix struck his first deal, acquiring utilityman Vidal Bruján and RHP Calvin Faucher in a five-player trade with his former employer, the Rays. December would see Bendix acquire reliever Kaleb Ort off waivers from Boston, as well as Christian Bethancourt—maybe the most significant on-field addition this offseason—to assume catching duties in 2024. The team continued their front office makeover as well with the additions of erstwhile Giants manager Gabe Kapler as assistant GM and Rachel Balkovec to serve as director of player development. Late January saw the appointing of Driveline’s Brandon Mann to a newly created “Pitcher Strategist” position. However, meaningful on-field moves continued to elude the Marlins. The incumbent roster shows some promise. Two-time reigning champion Luis Arraez stands alone as the best pure hitter in the game. MLB The Show cover athlete Jazz Chisholm Jr. combines raw ability with the flash and flare that has the potential to draw new, young fans a sport whose primary consumers are at or near middle age. Eury Pérez gave the Marlins and all of MLB a glimpse at one of the sport’s potential future aces in 2023. Braxton Garrett cemented his status in the club’s rotation last season, while Jesús Luzardo’s number-one quality stuff and corresponding 124 ERA+ since 2022 tell us he may soon contend for an NL Cy Young. The club also acquired slugger Jake Burger from the White Sox at least year’s trade deadline and he immediately demonstrated a more well-rounded offensive approach once the change of scenery took effect. And yet, none of them are locked up to extensions to keep them in Miami long term. Arraez has gone on the record as stating he is “open” to an extension with the club, but there's been nothing to indicate that the Marlins have evened approached him with a legitimate offer. With this overall lack of action to augment the roster and lack of commitment in current core players (with the exception of Sandy Alcantara), it isn't irrational to forecast that a rebuild may already be in its embryonic stages. There is also the issue of manager Skip Schumaker’s contract status. The reigning NL Manager of the Year has no guarantees beyond the 2024 season, and with Ng no longer with the organization, this suggests that Schumaker may be a goner as well. Should he be fired or leave on his own volition, the search for a replacement could be a short one given Gabe Kapler’s prior experience with Philadelphia and San Francisco. Bendix may be enticed by the opportunity to firmly put his stamp on the organization and bring in a manager of his choosing. Barring a truly non-competitive campaign, Schumaker probably wouldn't have to look far to make a lateral move to another dugout. The St. Louis Cardinals, with whom Schumaker spent the first eight seasons of his playing career, employed him as their bench coach under then-first year manager Oliver Marmol. Following a 2022 season that saw Marmol win 93 games capped off by an NL Central title, the Cardinals regressed to that of a 71-win team, their lowest winning percentage since 1995. Given the club’s penchant for playing consistently winning baseball, another season mirroring 2023 could spell Marmol’s demise in the dugout and leave a vacancy. Assessing the Marlins through a cold, objective lens, regression to the mean is to be expected in 2024. Their .702 winning percentage in one-run games is unsustainable. By sheer runs scored and runs allowed, they had a pythagorean win-loss record of merely 75-87. No MLB team had a larger discrepancy between their real-life and underlying results. Miami’s farm system is thin on near-term reinforcements. The system ranks 26th and 29th out of 30, according to FanGraphs and Bleacher Report, respectively, highlighted by Noble Meyer who's still multiple years away from debuting in the majors. Recent $1.4M amateur signing Luis Cova (not yet 17 years old) is even further away. Mimicking the polarizing tanking practices enacted by organizations such as the Cubs, Astros, Orioles or even the late-2010s Marlins doesn't appear to be on the table, but a gradual restock of the farm system through trading marquee players—reshuffling the deck to bring it in full alignment with Bendix's vision—could be coming in the not-so-distant future. That'd be a disorienting tune to hear for long-suffering Fish fans who thought a new window of relevance had just opened for them. View full article