How Miami's top trade chips are hurting franchise's present and future

In 2024, the Miami Marlins are enduring what has the makings to be a franchise-worst season. The real games began just three weeks ago and Miami's playoff odds have cratered to the low single digits. I'll do my best to abstain from harping on the team's collective incompetence.

The next phase of the discourse ought to be how the Marlins can revamp their organization to eventually contend consistently. In speaking to Craig Mish of the Miami Herald, president of baseball operations Peter Bendix was blunt about using the rest of this season to observe young players "step up and show that they can be a part of our future."

Regular playing time for those young players could be created via trades. Jesús Luzardo, Luis Arraez, and Tanner Scott—all marquee contributors to an 84-win club that secured an NL Wild Card berth in 2023—could potentially find themselves playing meaningful games for competitive clubs as the season trudges along. Bendix will aim to exchange them for talented assets who have lower salaries and more years of club control remaining. 

The problem present here is that the poor early-season performance of those players may greatly affect the potential return coming Miami's way. A selling spree can't transform one of the sport's worst farm systems into a rich pipeline unless aspiring playoff clubs are fully convinced that these acquisitions would change their fortunes for the better.

The aforementioned Luzardo, a power left-handed starter who won't hit free agency until after the 2026 season, presents arguably the best bite at the apple of a prospect haul come trade season. Among the 69 pitchers to throw at least 250 innings between 2022 and 2023, Luzardo posted the 6th-best K/9 (10.58) thanks to a fastball that averaged 96.7 mph over that stretch. He was no slouch in the run-prevention game either, as evidenced by his 3.48 ERA (125 ERA+).

Here in 2024, Luzardo has been far from the steady force he was the previous two seasons, amassing a 7.65 ERA, ranking 82nd among 83 qualified pitchers through April 17. While FIP (5.85) and xFIP (4.44) propose that positive regression is pending, the similarities between Luzardo's pre-breakout 2021 and 2024 Statcast data are worrisome. For those unfamiliar, upon being acquired from Oakland in the Starling Marte trade, Luzardo—the owner of a 6.87 ERA in 13 appearances with the A's—initially failed for his boyhood club, posting a 6.44 ERA in 12 starts, with the latter being the worst among MLB pitchers from August onward (min. 55 IP).

If Luzardo keeps on the path he has carved out for himself in the early going, the Marlins could find themselves in a situation mirroring the one faced by the 2011 Colorado Rockies when trying to trade staff ace Ubaldo Jiménez. 

Pitching to a 3.47 ERA and 3.36 FIP in what seems like a now-unfathomable 218 innings in 2009, Jiménez kicked it into third gear in 2010, riding his 100-mph fastball to a 19-win, 2.88 ERA season. He tossed a no-hitter, started for the NL in the All-Star Game, and ultimately finished third in Cy Young voting. His 161 ERA+ still ranks third all-time among Rockies pitchers to qualify for the ERA title.  

Jiménez dropped up considerably in 2011, sporting a 4.46 ERA through his first 21 starts. Seeing as his peripherals suggested some bad luck on his part (3.58 FIP, 8.6 K/9), Colorado still found a buyer at that year's trade deadline. The Cleveland Guardians acquired him for a package of players that included Joe Gardner, Matt McBride, Alex White, and a PTBNL who would turn out to be Drew Pomeranz. That foursome would combine for -2.1 bWAR, with Gardner never making it past Double-A.

Likewise, the case for trading Luis Arraez is a murky one. While the reigning NL batting champ was recently on record as saying he was open to an extension with the club, after a 4-15 start to 2024, who is to say whether Arraez's feelings have shifted? 

Beyond personal feelings, what kind of player are you getting at this stage?

Through 19 games this season, Arraez has hit .276/.353/.342/.695 with a lack of power by way of slug, hard-hit rates, and barrels that make for a limited though still singular offensive profile. 

While retaining his preternatural knack for not striking out—his outstanding 10.5 K% through April 17 actually being a career-worst—his once serviceable glove at second base has regressed to the suspect status that plagued it upon his trade to Miami. Arraez's minus-7 defensive runs saved currently rank worst among all position players, and his -7 Outs Above Average place him in the first percentile.  

Arraez, 27, is eligible for free agency after the 2025 campaign.

After toiling for years as a high-strikeout and high-traffic reliever, Tanner Scott put it all together as a Marlin in 2023, posting a 2.31 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 78 innings. Scott even retained his status as a FIP-friendly reliever, as his mark of 2.17 suggested even the slightest of bad luck still came his way thanks, in large part, to cutting his walk rate from 15.9 to 7.8%.

Come 2024, though, and it seems more of the old Tanner Scott has been of service to the Marlins. Through 8 ⅔ innings pitched and 44 batters faced, Scott has already walked 12 to the tune of a 27.3% walk rate. If he pitched like the sound of a Revolver-era Beatles cut in 2023, then 2024 has played out like his own Revolution 9 to this point. 

And while there is such thing as the concept of small sample size and eventual regression to career means, given Scott's rather erratic track record, we have a case of the bad outweighing the good.

Of note, too, is Scott's impending free agency, as he will hit the open market after the 2024 season. Trading him at this year's deadline will likely be for cents on the dollar of what Miami could have fetched had they decided to unload their roster in the previous offseason. And while other Marlins relievers like Anthony Bender and Andrew Nardi have shown upside in their own right, Scott appeals more to teams given what the short-term commitment will cost them in prospect capital.

This trade deadline is shaping up to be a seller's market with many clubs willing to part with minor leaguers for immediate upgrades who can aid them in tight postseason races. However, for the Marlins to come out of it feeling enthusiastic about the future, these star-caliber veterans will have to recapture their past greatness, boosting their market value accordingly.