Louis Addeo-Weiss

“Is this the end of the beginning? Or the beginning of the end? Losing control or are you winning? Is your life real or just pretend?” The opening lyrics from heavy metal forebearers Black Sabbath’s “End of the Beginning” can be made applicable to the fortunes of your favorite player’s respective peak, or your hometown club’s window to win. The 2023 Marlins took us on a long, strange trip en route to 84 wins and a surprise playoff appearance. Their achievements came in spite of being outscored on the season by a record 57 runs. Their behavior during this ensuing offseason reeks of an organization not believing in the validity of the recent transpiring events. Within two weeks of their elimination from the National League Wild Card Series, pioneering GM Kim Ng and the organization mutually parted ways. Ng was reportedly offered an opportunity to stay for 2024, but she would not be receiving her intended promotion to president of baseball operations. Rather, owner Bruce Sherman intended on searching elsewhere for a POBO to leapfrog her on the chain of command. No less than a month later, on November 6, Miami was again in the news, announcing their hiring of then-Rays GM Peter Bendix in the role Ng had aspired to take on. The plucking of a Tampa Bay brainiac to lead baseball ops —Andrew Friedman (Dodgers, 2014) Chaim Bloom (Red Sox, 2019), and James Click (Astros, 2020) —has been something of a trend across Major League Baseball, culminating in championships for several clubs. “Peter is an established industry leader with an extensive skillset and deep experience that will continue the momentum we have made on the Major League level," Sherman said in the initial press release. And then, the offseason rolled on, and Bendix instead brought that "momentum" to a halt. OF/DH Jorge Soler opted out of the final year of his three-year pact. The Marlins declined to issue Soler a qualifying offer. "They haven’t ruled out bringing him back if he settles for a low-money deal," reports Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. "But that’s considered unlikely." Eleven days into his Miami tenure, Bendix struck his first deal, acquiring utilityman Vidal Bruján and RHP Calvin Faucher in a five-player trade with his former employer, the Rays. December would see Bendix acquire reliever Kaleb Ort off waivers from Boston, as well as Christian Bethancourt—maybe the most significant on-field addition this offseason—to assume catching duties in 2024. The team continued their front office makeover as well with the additions of erstwhile Giants manager Gabe Kapler as assistant GM and Rachel Balkovec to serve as director of player development. Late January saw the appointing of Driveline’s Brandon Mann to a newly created “Pitcher Strategist” position. However, meaningful on-field moves continued to elude the Marlins. The incumbent roster shows some promise. Two-time reigning champion Luis Arraez stands alone as the best pure hitter in the game. MLB The Show cover athlete Jazz Chisholm Jr. combines raw ability with the flash and flare that has the potential to draw new, young fans a sport whose primary consumers are at or near middle age. Eury Pérez gave the Marlins and all of MLB a glimpse at one of the sport’s potential future aces in 2023. Braxton Garrett cemented his status in the club’s rotation last season, while Jesús Luzardo’s number-one quality stuff and corresponding 124 ERA+ since 2022 tell us he may soon contend for an NL Cy Young. The club also acquired slugger Jake Burger from the White Sox at least year’s trade deadline and he immediately demonstrated a more well-rounded offensive approach once the change of scenery took effect. And yet, none of them are locked up to extensions to keep them in Miami long term. Arraez has gone on the record as stating he is “open” to an extension with the club, but there's been nothing to indicate that the Marlins have evened approached him with a legitimate offer. With this overall lack of action to augment the roster and lack of commitment in current core players (with the exception of Sandy Alcantara), it isn't irrational to forecast that a rebuild may already be in its embryonic stages. There is also the issue of manager Skip Schumaker’s contract status. The reigning NL Manager of the Year has no guarantees beyond the 2024 season, and with Ng no longer with the organization, this suggests that Schumaker may be a goner as well. Should he be fired or leave on his own volition, the search for a replacement could be a short one given Gabe Kapler’s prior experience with Philadelphia and San Francisco. Bendix may be enticed by the opportunity to firmly put his stamp on the organization and bring in a manager of his choosing. Barring a truly non-competitive campaign, Schumaker probably wouldn't have to look far to make a lateral move to another dugout. The St. Louis Cardinals, with whom Schumaker spent the first eight seasons of his playing career, employed him as their bench coach under then-first year manager Oliver Marmol. Following a 2022 season that saw Marmol win 93 games capped off by an NL Central title, the Cardinals regressed to that of a 71-win team, their lowest winning percentage since 1995. Given the club’s penchant for playing consistently winning baseball, another season mirroring 2023 could spell Marmol’s demise in the dugout and leave a vacancy. Assessing the Marlins through a cold, objective lens, regression to the mean is to be expected in 2024. Their .702 winning percentage in one-run games is unsustainable. By sheer runs scored and runs allowed, they had a pythagorean win-loss record of merely 75-87. No MLB team had a larger discrepancy between their real-life and underlying results. Miami’s farm system is thin on near-term reinforcements. The system ranks 26th and 29th out of 30, according to FanGraphs and Bleacher Report, respectively, highlighted by Noble Meyer who's still multiple years away from debuting in the majors. Recent $1.4M amateur signing Luis Cova (not yet 17 years old) is even further away. Mimicking the polarizing tanking practices enacted by organizations such as the Cubs, Astros, Orioles or even the late-2010s Marlins doesn't appear to be on the table, but a gradual restock of the farm system through trading marquee players—reshuffling the deck to bring it in full alignment with Bendix's vision—could be coming in the not-so-distant future. That'd be a disorienting tune to hear for long-suffering Fish fans who thought a new window of relevance had just opened for them.

We've reached the dawn of 2024, and as die-hard-baseball fans do their best Rogers Hornsby ahead of Spring Training, we mark the passage of time with the announcement of the next class of National Baseball Hall of Fame inductees. Baseball traditionalists and new-age analytics apologists once again lock horns in debating why "Player X" is more deserving than "Player Y." The Hall of Fame also forces us to confront our own moral conscious, as we assess players, not only on the merits of their on-field performance, but for their off-field transgressions. We are ultimately evaluating human beings and considering whether or not to bestow baseball's highest honor upon them. Before giving you my ballot, here are the rules and requirements for Hall of Fame eligible players, outlined per the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA). To clarify, I do not belong to said organization and don't have a say in the official voting process. May Vote for in the FutureManny Ramírez—Undeniable is the sentiment of Manny Ramírez as one of the best right-handed hitters who ever lived. Look no further than a career .312/.411/.585/.996 slash line over 2,302 games and parts of 19 seasons. His career 154 OPS+ sits in the company of the game's immortals; Willie Mays (155), Hank Aaron (155), Joe DiMaggio (155), and Frank Robinson (154). However, the elephant in the room with Man-Ram is flunking PED tests in 2009 and 2011. While I've been unyielding in my support for Barry Bonds belonging in Cooperstown, the presence of failed tests in conjunction with a sudden retirement following being popped a second time, I reside myself to leaving Manny off for the time being.Álex Rodríguez—What can be said about Manny Ramírez can be said about Álex Rodríguez in a scroll long enough to span the Great Wall of China. A-Rod was something of a baseball super villain. Normally, the fuel to the fire of hatred that surrounds these players is the transgressions that accompany their on-field brilliance, and A-Rod fits this narrative to a tee. Did you know his 344 home runs in games at shortstop trail all-time leader, Cal Ripken Jr., by just one, with A-Rod getting there in 1,033 fewer games (1,264) than Ripken (2,297)? This while winning a batting title and two Gold Gloves all before turning 29. But when you on multiple occasions before receiving a 211-game suspension (eventually reduced to 162 games), creating one of the sport's biggest media-frenzy scandals, I'll again allow father time to amend my bitterness. With these in mind, I present to you my Hall of Fame ballot: 3B Adrián BeltréJAWS: 4th among third basemen 93.5 career WAR | 48.7 7yr-peak WAR | 71.1 JAWS | 5.2 WAR/162Average HOF 3B (out of 16): 68.4 career WAR | 43.1 7yr-peak WAR | 55.8 JAWS | 5.1 WAR/162 The slam-dunk of the bunch on this year's ballot, Adrián Beltré's case is so well-defined that we won't spend too much time ruminating on the brilliance of his play. Here are just a few numbers to briefly illustrate one of baseball's most enduring characters and players. 93.5 rWAR (3rd all-time among 3B), 3,166 hits (18th all-time), 477 home runs (31st), 200 defensive runs saved (t-1st), 168 total zone fielding runs (13th), 27 dWAR (15th). Not since Derek Jeter in 2020 has a player ever felt as much a lock as Beltré does in 2024. CF Carlos BeltránJAWS: 9th among center fielders 70.1 career WAR | 44.4 7yr-peak WAR | 57.2 JAWS | 4.4 WAR/162Average HOF CF (out of 19): 71.6 career WAR | 44.7 7yr-peak WAR | 58.1 JAWS | 5.4 WAR/162 Now that Beltrán got the Robert Alomar treatment for his ties to the 2017 Houston Astros sign-stealing scandal, let the numbers do the talking in rightfully enshrining him in Cooperstown. A quick bit of trivia—here are the five players in MLB history with >400 HR, >300 SB: Barry Bonds, Álex Rodríguez, Willie Mays, Andre Dawson, and Carlos Beltrán. On numbers alone, all of these names have Hall of Fame pedigrees. The separator for Beltrán, though, is his postseason pedigree. In 65 career playoff contests, Beltrán hit .307/.412/.609/1.021 with home runs and 11 stolen bases. Outside of all of this, the native of Puerto Rico ought to be elected in the context of his center field comrades, as his 70.1 rWAR ranks 8th all-time amongst players at the position, higher than the likes of Duke Snider, Dawson, and Kirby Puckett, just to name a few of already-elected players. CF Andruw JonesJAWS: 11th among center fielders 62.7 career WAR | 46.4 7yr-peak WAR | 54.6 JAWS | 4.6 WAR/162Average HOF CF (out of 19): 71.6 career WAR | 44.7 7yr-peak WAR | 58.1 JAWS | 5.4 WAR/162 If I told you that one player saved 253 runs with his defense while also hitting 434 home runs, wouldn't you think him to already be in the Hall of Fame? Alas, this is the case for Andruw Jones, who played more 17,000 innings at one baseball's premier defensive positions, and he played it better than anyone before or after him has. Between 1997-2007, Jones hit 363 home runs while saving 238 runs on the other side of the ball, amassing 60.9 rWAR in the process. Unfortunately, for Jones and the millions he awed in that decade of brilliance, his final five seasons would see him regress to the tune of a 95 OPS+ hitter whose still-modest power (.424 SLG) wasn't enough to excuse injuries and a precipitous decline in defense. From 2008-12, Jones put together just 1.7 rWAR, and his .254 career batting average upon his retirement has led some to hold off in casting their support for him. If someone like Harmon Killebrew, a career .256 hitter, is only in Cooperstown due to his 573 home runs—a mark surpassed by 11 different players—and the guy who saved more runs than any other outfielder in history can't get in, that seems to set a bit of a double standard. And when you assess his career as a whole, Jones and the aforementioned Adrián Beltré are the only two players in baseball history with 400-plus home runs and 200-plus fielding runs, an illustrator of multi-faceted baseball mastery and longevity. And with ballot more vacant of PED-associated players, Jones, after garnering 58.1% in 2023, may finally get the call that's long eluded him. C/1B Joe MauerJAWS: 7th among catchers 55.2 career WAR | 39.0 7yr-peak WAR | 47.1 JAWS | 4.8 WAR/162Average HOF C (out of 16): 53.6 career WAR | 34.7 7yr-peak WAR | 44.2 JAWS | 4.7 WAR/162 Johnny Bench is the consensus best catcher in baseball history. Mike Piazza is the best offensive catcher in baseball history. Joe Mauer was arguably the best pure hitter to don the "tools of ignorance." Among 133 catchers in baseball history to catch at least 850 games, Mauer's .889 OPS in these contests ranks third best all-time, trailing only the prior-referenced Piazza (.942) and Mickey Cochrane (.894), who took his last breath 21 years before Mauer's birth. Even if you solely credit Mauer with the 39 WAR he accrued as a catcher, he'd still sneak inside the top-30 all-time among backstops. In that span from 2004-2012, Mauer collected an AL MVP (2009), 3 consecutive Gold Gloves, and became the only catcher in MLB history to collect 3 batting titles. While his first season as a full-time first baseman in 2013 merited 5.5 wins of value, Mauer (to a much-lesser extent than Jones) regressed from being Bench-like as a catcher to James Loney over his final five seasons (105 OPS+ to Loney's career 104). Maybe a more favorable comparison to draw to Mauer is another first-year eligible player in 2024, David Wright. Like Mauer, Wright had a lot of the potential value and Hall of Fame surety taken from him due to injuries and ensuing degradation, though Mauer's torrid start to his career in conjunction with what we'll label a modest decline in performance culminated in 55.2 WAR and 2,123 hits, which feels sufficient enough for a plaque in Cooperstown. 1B Todd HeltonJAWS: 15th among first basemen 61.8 career WAR | 46.6 7yr-peak WAR | 54.2 JAWS | 4.5 WAR/162Average HOF 1B (out of 24): 65.0 career WAR | 41.8 7yr-peak WAR | 53.4 JAWS | 4.8 WAR/162 From a player in Mauer whose status as "borderline" would feel merited given what we as viewers were deprived of, Todd Helton presents a case that further screams "Hall of Famer" the more you peruse his Baseball-Reference page. You can make a case that the election of Helton's former Colorado teammate, Larry Walker, helped break down the Coors Field bias. Since 1945, Helton's .316 career batting average is 9th best all-time among hitters with a minimum of 5,000 plate appearances. Helton never won an MVP award, but perhaps he should have? In 2000, Helton led all MLB players in doubles (59), RBI (147), average (.372), slugging percentage (.698), OPS (1.162), and joined the elusive 400-total bases club, the first of two times he'd do so. Despite also leading the league in sabermetric stats such as WAR (8.9), WPA (9.0), and Base-Out Wins Added (7.6), Helton would somehow finish just 5th in an NL MVP that ultimately went to an NL West rival and player with a strong Hall of Fame case of his own, Jeff Kent. Circling back to the Coors argument, while Helton was a noticeably inferior hitter away from the Rocky Mountains (.855 OPS on the road compared to 1.048 at home), his road OPS still sits above 113 position players already in the Hall. Falling oh-so-close to the necessary 75-percent needed to earn induction in 2023 (72.2%), 2024 should be the year that Helton finally gets the call to the Hall. 2B Chase UtleyJAWS: 12th among second basemen 64.5 career WAR | 49.3 7yr-peak WAR | 56.9 JAWS | 5.4 WAR/162Average HOF 2B (out of 20): 69.6 career WAR | 44.4 7yr-peak WAR | 57.0 JAWS | 5.1 WAR/162https://fishonfirst.com/non-marlins/chase-utley-hall-of-fame-case/If you follow along with us here at Fish On First, you'll know I recently did a profile on Utley's career, asserting why I feel he's a more-than-deserving Hall of Famer. On the merits of WAR alone, his total of 64.5 has him as the 15th best second baseman in baseball history. Among the more well-rounded players in recent memory, there simply didn't seem to be a thing that Chase Utley failed to do well. He hit the 5th-most home runs of any 2B in MLB history (252), stole bases more often than anyone in MLB history with at least 175 attempts (87.5%) and accrued the 6th most runs from fielding according to Rfield among 2B (131). Sure, the counting stats—particularly the 1,885 career hits—the fact that he never never won an MVP, and the slide that took out Mets shortstop Ruben Tejada may rub some the wrong way. However, when you have not only the best player on a Phillies club that won five consecutive division titles, two pennants and a World Series (where he had a career 1.046 OPS), there's no denying that Chase Utley's career has Hall of Fame written all over it. RF Bobby Abreu JAWS: 21st among right fielders 60.2 career WAR | 41.6 7yr-peak WAR | 50.9 JAWS | 4.0 WAR/162Average HOF RF (out of 28): 71.1 career WAR | 42.4 7yr-peak WAR | 56.7 JAWS | 5.1 WAR/162 After hanging on by mere threads in his first three years of eligibility, Bobby Abreu nearly doubled the 8.6% he received in 2022 when he appeared on 15.4% of ballots the following year. And though I don't expect 2024 to be the year we see him finally get in, a continued ascent would too prove encouraging. But what exactly is sparking the gradual Bobby Abreu love affair? Generally speaking, we tend to put power and speed in different buckets of premium baseball skills. Abreu had both in spades. Power-Speed, a Bill James-derived metric that sets out to find the "harmonic mean" between home runs and stolen bases, is very pro-Abreu in its applications. His 334.88 P-S has him 14th all-time, ahead of fellow Hall of Famers Reggie Jackson, Paul Molitor, Ryne Sandberg, Frank Robinson, and Larry Walker, to name a few. Even rarer air is the 275 HR/400 SB/.395 OBP club. That club only includes 3 names: Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson, and, yep, you guessed it, Bobby Abreu. During his peak from 1998-2005, only four players, all of whom were mentioned above, were worth more than Abreu's 45.2 WAR, according to Baseball-Reference. Sure, his career WAR of 60.2 is below the mean for HOF right fielders, but given a vast majority of Abreu's competition likely played as "enhanced" version of themselves, whose to say how much more valuable he would have appeared had the playing field been more on the level. Despite this, there still sat an 8-year period where he was among the game's best all-around players, and that sustained high-level play, in conjunction with the fact that the latter half of his career still produced a .374 OBP in a 4,400 plate appearance sample, is good enough for me. RP Billy WagnerJAWS: 6th among relief pitchers 27.7 career WAR | 19.8 7yr-peak WAR | 23.7 JAWS | 24.9 R-JAWS | 2.2 WAR/162Average HOF RP (out of 8): 39.1 career WAR | 26.0 7yr-peak WAR | 32.5 JAWS | 29.7 R-JAWS | 2.5 WAR/162 WAR apologists will take one look at Wagner's 27.7 WAR and immediately shun the notion of him as to having a legitimate Hall of Fame case. Are there reservations about electing a guy who threw less than 1,000 innings? Sure, and the my pro-WAR leanings also make this pick a bit begrudged, but Wagner's dominance, at least to me, transcends the metric. Knowing the cumulative nature of the metric, though, and given relievers don't necessarily accrue enough volume to amass high WAR totals, Wagner's case takes shape when you assess how historically great he was at preventing runs. Among pitchers to throw at least 900 innings, only Mariano Rivera's 205 adjusted ERA+ is higher than Wagner's 187, thanks to a career 2.31 ERA. As much as fans have marveled at the likes of Ichiro Suzuki and Luis Arraez for their playing out of an older, long-lost era of baseball, Wagner ought to be celebrated for the groundbreaking nature at which he went about facing hitters. Before his debut in 1995, no reliever with at least 750 innings pitched had a K/9 higher than 9. In his 903 innings, Wagner struck out an unheard of 11.9 batters per 9. The last decade-plus has seen the likes of Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel, and Kenley Jansen, relief pitchers who put batters away doing their best Billy Wagner impersonation. These four names all share the record with 6 seasons of at least 50 innings pitched, sub-2.50 ERA, and >10 K/9, and given his 68% of support in 2023, 2024 could see Wagner further embrace trailblazer status. OF/3B Gary Sheffield JAWS: 24th among right fielders 60.5 career WAR | 38.0 7yr-peak WAR | 49.3 JAWS | 3.8 WAR/162Average HOF RF (out of 28): 71.1 career WAR | 42.4 7yr-peak WAR | 56.7 JAWS | 5.1 WAR/162Given this is a Marlins-first blog, and given this is his tenth and final year of eligibility, I felt it appropriate to leave Sheffield for last. Sure, Sheffield was named in the Mitchell Report, but I can forgive a guy who ultimately opened up about his unintentional use of PEDs. Mark McGwire may not get into Cooperstown, but him admitting his transgression ultimately opened the door for him to work in baseball as a coach, so revisionist history suggests Sheffield's transparency ought to be rewarded. If you want to take him at his word, prior to using a banned substance following the 2002 season, Sheffield had already hit .296/.399/.520/.919, and smashed 340 home runs. In the seven seasons following that, he hit .284/.380/.502/.882, good enough to be 30-percent better than the league-average hitter. While his defensive metrics leave a lot to be desired—minus-195 Rfield, -27.7 dWAR—Sheffield's 80.7 oWAR is in the tier of Frank Thomas (80.4). Lost too is Sheffield's performance on the basepaths, as he swiped 253 bags and ranks 13th all-time in Power-Speed. That consistently high volume of offensive performance, as well as that famous and often-imitated bat wiggle responsible for 509 home runs, stick out most when I think of Sheffield. The BBWAA is set to announce the inductees of the 2024 class on January 23. Photo by Andrew Dieb/Icon Sportswire

After coming out of the gate slow in his first year with the Marlins in 2022, Jorge Soler returned to form in 2023. He slugged 36 home runs en route to his first career All-Star selection, leading Miami to their first full-season playoff berth since 2003. As was to be expected, Soler opted out of the final season of his three-year, $36M contract with his sights set on another payday a la free agency. Unquestionably, the 2024 Marlins lineup would look better with Soler than without him, but should he really be their primary DH target this offseason? I'd posit that Teoscar Hernández is the more attractive option for said role, and there are several good reasons as to why. Consider the three-year sample encompassing the 2021 through 2023 seasons: Teoscar Hernández vs. Jorge Soler head-to-head stats comparison | StatheadThe first number of note, Hernández's 8.6 WAR in this period dwarfs Soler's 2.1. The latter took 320 fewer plate appearances from 2021-2023, but that gap in value largely comes from quality of performance. For context, only one player in MLB history has managed to accrue at least 6 WAR—the approximate gap between Hernández and Soler—in a season of fewer than 320 plate appearances. His name was Josh Gibson, the legendary Negro Leagues catcher who accounted for 6.3 wins across just 302 tracked plate appearances for the 1943 Homestead Grays. Soler had stretches of excellence. He posted an .882 OPS with Atlanta following a 2021 trade deadline deal and earned MVP honors in the ensuing World Series. This past year, he erupted for double-digit home runs in the months of May and August. Outside of that, though, he was unremarkable. As for Hernández, he made his first—and to this point, only—All-Star team in 2021, representing the Blue Jays after hitting .296/.346/.524 with 32 HR, 116 RBI, and even swiping a career-best 12 bases. Hernández's 131 OPS+ ranked 10th among 42 outfielders that season who qualified for the batting title. After posting a similarly impressive 2022 (finishing 28-percent better than the league average hitter), Toronto flipped Hernández to the Mariners in a swap that included reliever Erik Swanson. Even in a down 2023, he had a 106 OPS+ in 160 games during his age-30 season. Beyond the bat, Hernández displays a stronger albeit still below-average defensive profile. Per Baseball-Reference, he has accounted for negative-3 runs from fielding since 2021, while Soler has been worth negative-17. Hernández logged more than twice as many defensive innings over that span. Soler started only 31 games in the outfield in 2023, in part to cede opportunities to superior defenders and also to manage his recurring back issues. Being passable with the glove is meaningful for the Marlins. Their projected starting left fielder, Bryan De La Cruz, was roughly replacement level last year and their projected starting right fielder, Jesús Sánchez, struggles against lefty pitching. There figure to be at-bats available at both outfield corners. One more factor to consider when choosing between these two bats is durability. Between 2021-2023, Hernández appeared in 484 of his team's 536 games (89.7%); Soler managed to see playing time in just 358 games in this span (74%). Wouldn't you rather take the player with superior recent production (121 OPS+ to 109 OPS+) when there's also more certainty that said player will be available on the field? Despite Soler's shortcomings, he'd still provide a considerable positive impact while likely being the cheaper option of the two. The Marlins are familiar with him on a personal level and know he won't be intimidated by playing home games in a ballpark that notoriously suppresses power-hitting. As of Wednesday morning, the Marlins are one of five MLB teams who haven't inked a major league free agent yet. Fans are understandably angsty. That sentiment would instantly change if they did what it takes to secure the services of Hernández or Soler. Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images

Growing up in South Florida, my formative memories in the late-oughts/early 2010s as a then-Florida Marlins fan were that of the Philadelphia Phillies being an absolute powerhouse. From a period of 2007-2011, the club captured five consecutive NL East crowns, won consecutive pennants in 2008 and 2009, as well as the 2008 World Series. Simply put, adolescent me hated the Phillies with a fervor. With the passage of time, though, I'm able to digest that era through a more objective lens. Those great Phillies teams, constructed with the help of Pat Gillick and Ruben Amaro Jr., were rife with marquee players of the likes of Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels, Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth. Then came future Hall of Famer Roy Halladay, diverting even more of my attention towards them. However, Halladay's plaque shouldn't stand as the lone Cooperstown acknowledgement of that special group. One piece of their winning core always seemed to stick out more than the rest: second baseman Chase Utley. He's a polarizing player. Sabermetricians are rather pro-Utley. On the other end of the spectrum, traditionalists can and will find their fair share of reasons as to why his career appears insufficient. I feel Utley has among the more compelling Hall of Fame cases in recent memory. At His Peak When Utley was at his best, not only was he among the best players in baseball—let alone his own team—but among the greatest second basemen the game had yet seen. Between 2005-2010, the Pasadena native put up 45.5 WAR, according to Baseball-Reference. Among all players in this stretch, only Albert Pujols (52.1) proved more valuable than Utley. Peak Utley outperformed the likes of Álex Rodríguez (38.3), Joe Mauer (31.8), David Wright (30.0) Matt Holliday (29.2), Ádrian Beltré (29.0), and Carlos Beltrán (27.8), all of whom have compelling cases of their own. How did Utley usurp all of these superstar players? He separated himself thanks to the well-rounded nature of his game, accumulating value by being adept at each skill that one and many a contemporary of his may have lacked. From 2005-2010, Utley hit 162 home runs, a modest 18th in that stretch, but still nearly as many as Vladimir Guerrero (163), Manny Ramirez (165), Jim Thome (166), and the aforementioned Holliday (166). However, none of them played their respective defensive positions to the degree of Utley, whose 119 defensive runs saved led all of baseball over this span. Defense is only one piece of the puzzle, though one that largely gets underrated when assessing the worth of players past and present. https://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/mp4/2019/05/28/1435549/1559067381225/asset_2500K.mp4Let us shift the conversation back to the batter's box. While Utley only hit 162 homers throughout this six-season peak, the combination of his ability to hit for doubles power (216 2B), better-than-average eye (10.2 BB%), and knack for hit by pitches (117) helped him total 170 batting runs (Rbat). For context, that's seven more than teammate Ryan Howard, who hit 89 more home runs than Utley (and more than any other MLB player). This leads us to another underappreciated aspect of his game: baserunning. Utley's 90 stolen bases in this stretch came in just 102 attempts. The 28th-highest total in the league was enough to rank eighth-best in Runs from Baserunning (Rbaser) thanks to a success rate of 88.06%. Using the metric WAR7, which accounts for a player's seven best seasons, Utley's 49.3 puts him ninth all-time among second basemen. That's better than Hall of Famers Ryne Sandberg, Joe Gordon, Frankie Frisch, Roberto Alomar, Craig Biggio, Billy Herman, Nellie Fox, Bobby Doerr, Tony Lazzeri, Johnny Evers, Red Schoendienst, Bid McPhee, Bill Mazeroski, and Miller Huggins. "Where It Matters Most"It's one thing to be the best player on your team, but to be the best player on a team that won five consecutive division titles is this to the second power. To many, what players do in the regular season—while important—pales in comparison to what they do on the big stages of postseason play. Among players with at least 50 career postseason games, Utley's .364 on-base percentage ranks inside the top 25 all-time. In 15 career World Series games, though only hitting .200, he managed to slug .689 with a 1.046 OPS. In the 2009 WS that saw his Phillies fall to the Yankees in six games, Utley slashed a combined .286/.400/1.048/1.448 with 5 HR, 8 RBI, and 1 SB. DrawbacksAs great as peak Utley was, his case for Cooperstown is not as slam-dunk as one would like. Maybe the biggest statistical roadblock impeding Utley's path is his pedestrian hit total of 1,885. Purists would say, "You can't have less than 2,000 hits and somehow be in the Hall of Fame." Excluding Negro League players given the scant game log data, we see that of the 168 primary big league position players in the Hall, only 30 of them had fewer hits than Utley. There's also the lack of accolades sitting on Utley's mantle. He was only a six-time All-Star, and despite his monstrous peak, Utley never won an MVP award. In his best season by WAR, a nine-win season in 2008 that stands among the 25 most valuable by a second baseman, Utley finished 14th in NL MVP voting. He never placed higher than seventh in any of the years he received votes. Utley never won a Gold Glove, either. In that aforementioned 2008 season during which he led all big league defenders with 3.5 dWAR and 31 defensive runs saved, the Reds' Brandon Phillips received the award over him. Shifting to baseball's notoriously vague "character clause," an assessment of Utley's career is simply incomplete without mentioning the infamous slide in Game 2 of the 2015 NLDS that took out Mets shortstop Ruben Tejada. The shortstop suffered a fractured fibula as a result. Utley would in turn be suspended for the following two games of the series, a suspension he appealed and ultimately had dropped the following year. MLB later implemented a rule ahead of the 2016 season outlining that "slides on potential double plays will require runners to make a bona fide attempt to reach and remain on the base." For many, this dirty slide was enough to dub Utley a "bad guy" who doesn't represent the principles of the Hall of Fame. I deem it more as a blip on the résumé of a sterling career from an individual who's otherwise beloved across the sport. Total Body of Work For his career, Utley amassed 64.5 rWAR/61.6 fWAR. Per Baseball-Reference, this puts him 12th all-time among second basemen. There are 10 second basemen below him who are in the Hall of Fame. By dWAR (defensive wins above replacement), Utley's 17.3 has him 11th at the position. When referring back to DRS, a metric introduced in 2003, only Mark Ellis has saved more runs at the position than Utley's 123. It's not all that dissimilar from Adrián Beltré, who is seen as a first-ballot lock thanks in part to his incredible glovework at third base. Another name on the ballot whose case bares a resemblance to Utley's, Andruw Jones, has a reputation built on a combination of offense (111 OPS+ to Utley's 117), speed (152 SB to Utley's 154), and defense (24.4 to 17.3 dWAR). Referring back to another old-school metric, RBI, we see that Utley is one of just eight 2B with at least four seasons of 100 or more runs driven in. Five of those eight players are in the Hall, the exceptions being Jeff Kent and Robinson Canó (likely be held out due to multiple failed PED tests). We talked earlier about Utley's efficiencies as a base-stealer. His 87.5% success rate is the best all-time among hitters with at least 175 stolen base attempts, having stolen 154 bases to just 22 caught stealings. And if all of this hasn't proved convincing enough yet, I'll leave you with this. Can you name the seven players in Major League history with at least 250 home runs, 100 fielding runs, and 150 steals? Answer: Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, Mike Schmidt, Carl Yastrzemski, Mookie Betts, Andruw Jones, and, yep, you guessed it, Chase Utley. Photo by Jason Arnold/Getty Images

This Miami Marlins offseason began with a jolt when GM Kim Ng exited the organization, replaced by longtime Tampa Bay Rays executive Peter Bendix. Outside of that, it's frankly been a boring ride—aside from arranging a trade with his former co-workers and inking a few minor league deals, Bendix is moving slowly. The Marlins still have work to do if they want to prove 2023 wasn't merely an aberration because their existing roster simply isn't going to cut it. We headed into this offseason understanding that the Marlins will not pony up the record-breaking dollars required to sign the likes of baseball's unicorn, Shohei Ohtani, or Japan's latest pitching sensation, Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Even the free agent tiers directly below them are too inefficient for this club to seriously bid on. Keeping it realistic, here are a handful of hypothetical signings and trade acquisitions that you may have been overlooking. SP José Quintana (New York Mets)Notable 2023 Statistics (age-34 season): 3.57 ERA (118 ERA+), 3.52 FIP, 0.6 HR/9, 1.3 rWAR Kicking off this thought experiment with a potential trade, the Marlins would have to look within their division to make this one work, but there are many reasons why José Quintana may be worth the time invested. After a period in the mid-2010's where he was among the more unheralded pitchers in the sport, Quintana experienced a three-year lull from 2019-21 that had many questioning how much longer he'd continue to pitch big league innings. His 5.13 ERA ranked 9th-worst among the 100 pitchers to throw at least 240 innings in that span. He cycled through three different uniforms during those three seasons. A glimmer of hope shining through an otherwise bad ERA was the accompanying 3.99 FIP, a mark that indicated him being closer to the middle of the pack in terms of quality. Quintana turned the corner in 2022 with 165-plus innings of a career-best 2.93 ERA and 137 ERA+ between Pittsburgh and St. Louis. The Mets committed two years to him before the 2023 season. A stress fracture in his rib cage limited him to just 13 starts and 75 ⅔ innings in 2023, but when healthy, Quintana proved his 2022 renaissance wasn't merely a flash in the pan. Continuing with his trend of suppressing the long ball, Quintana surrendered just five home runs in his 75-plus innings, good enough for a HR/9 of 0.6. In fact, no pitcher among the 85 to throw at least 240 innings since the start of 2022 has limited the long ball to the degree of Quintana. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/29/51ca843f-0338e533-cbbcaf13-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Quintana's $13M salary for 2024 is right in line with the likes of recently signed starters Kenta Maeda (2/$24M), Kyle Gibson (1/$10M) and Lance Lynn (1/$12M). The Marlins shouldn't have an issue coming up with the modest trade capital needed to swing a deal—the question is whether the Mets are willing to part with him given their own rotation depth concerns. Quintana's presence wouldn't completely replace that of the injured Sandy Alcantara, but it could very well fill a majority of the void. RP Robert Stephenson (Free Agent) Notable 2023 Statistics (age-30 season): 5.2 H/9, 0.879 WHIP, 13.2 K/9 All roads seem to have led Robert Stephenson to the role of reliever. His brief 22-start tenure as a starting pitcher with the Reds between 2016-18 was anything but remarkable. In 105 ⅔ innings, Stephenson pitched to a 4.77 ERA and lousy 1.61 WHIP. Things would start to look up in 2019 when he struck out 81 over 64 ⅔ frames in his first full-go out of the bullpen, but inconsistencies between 2020-22 undid much of that progress. Things did not start any easier for him in 2023 either, pitching to a 5.14 ERA in 14 innings out of the gate with Pittsburgh. That was before the Rays acquired Stephenson on June 2. From that point onward, Stephenson's 14.09 K/9 ranked fifth-highest amongst all big league relievers, as did his .194 BABIP. Stephenson already lays claim to one of the game's elite cut-fastballs. Whether he sustains this elite level of performance given his somewhat concerning 14.3% HR/FB-rate remains to be seen, but he could make for an uncomfortable at-bat out of the Marlins bullpen in 2024. His dominance against right-handed batters is especially enticing for a relief corps that leaned too heavily on southpaws this season. With MLB Trade Rumors projecting a contract in the ballpark of four years/$36M, Miami ought to be aggressive should they wish to land his services, but hey, maybe the Peter Bendix connection works in their favor here. OF Austin Meadows (Free Agent) Notable 2023 Statistics (age-28 season): 6 G, 21 PA, .238 BA, -0.2 rWAR When Rick Ankiel burst onto the scene as a left-handed pitcher for the St. Louis Cardinals in 1999, scouts and fans alike were drawn to his mid-90's fastball and knee-buckling curveball. Following a disastrous playoff blow-up against the Atlanta Braves in 2000, stardom and all the accompanying glitter began to slip and rust right before Ankiel's eyes, as the anxiety-induced yips almost forced a premature adieu to the game he loved. To a similar, more contemporary case, we have Austin Meadows, whose once-promising career has been burdened by the grips of mental health strife. Meadows posted a 125 OPS+ over 1334 PA for the Rays from 2019-21, receiving top-20 MVP votes in both '19 and '21. In that span, he was one of just 19 players with multiple seasons of at least 59 extra-base hits. The Detroit Tigers got just 42 games and 168 PA out of him over the next two seasons. With such scant volume of playing time to work off of, why and how would Meadows make sense for Miami? Beyond the mere potential feel-good nature of a Meadows re-blossoming, age matters here. Only turning 29 next May 3, this ought to suggest there's still plenty of good baseball left in that bat of his. And when he was on the field for Detroit—though the presence of his power was absent—Meadows' batted ball data wasn't far off from his usual norms. He still walked 9.5-percent of the time in comparison to his 9.2-percent mark from 2018-21, as too did his line-drive (25.2-to-25.6%) and hard-hit rates (42.3-to-41.4%) land within his usual range. Dare we note that there's another Bendix connection here? UTIL Christopher Morel (Chicago Cubs)Notable 2023 Statistics (age-24 season): 26 HR, 50.4 HardHit%, 31% K-rate, -4 Rfield Christopher Morel feels like a Javier Báez-lite at the plate: you get a lot of swing-and-miss, light-tower power, and flare. Morel also provides positional flexibility similar to the ex-Cubs star. The key distinction is that Báez proved an advanced defender at multiple infield positions, while Morel's issue manifests in the fact that he's not actually good anywhere. In parts of 83 games played in the outfield, Morel has worth minus-18 runs via total zone and minus-10 defensive runs saved. Pro-rate this production over a full season and Morel would be among MLB's biggest liabilities there. Morel's 282 innings between shortstop and third base have proven similarly disappointing, boasting minus-4 and minus-1 DRS totals, respectively. The one position anomalous to all of these, second base, is occupied on the Marlins by defending NL batting champion Luis Arraez. That being said, should the Marlins lose out in their bid to re-sign Jorge Soler, Morel could easily slot in at DH and play elsewhere only when his teammates are unavailable to do so. The 24-year-old isn't even arbitration eligible yet and would be under club control through at least 2028. 1B/DH Carlos Santana (Free Agent)Notable 2023 Statistics (age-37 season): 23 HR, 10.5% BB-rate, 16.8% K-rate, 2.7 rWAR It's one thing to be considered a very good player. It's another to be considered both very good and often forgotten. Here's a quick trivia nugget for you; who are the only active players with at least 300 homers, 1,200 walks, and fewer than 1,500 strikeouts? Answer: Carlos Santana...and that's it. Not Hall of Fame-caliber, but that's quite a distinction for the Dominican switch-hitter to hang his hat on. Santana's knack for above-average power, astute plate discipline and lower-than-normal strikeout rates have always made him a fascinating player to watch, despite never being in that upper echelon of marquee names in the sport. Even as his mid-30's have seen his overall offensive numbers succumb to decline (94 Rbat, 94 OPS+ since 2020), Santana has still struck out just 16.5-percent of the time while walking a nearly equal 13.2-percent of his plate appearances. All of this while still posting a respective .161 ISO over that stretch. If the Marlins can't pry Morel from Chicago, Santana could slot right in with Josh Bell to create a formidable 1B/DH duo. Photo by Mike Carlson/MLB Photos

Relive all of the ups and downs of the 2023 Miami Marlins with our Fish On First Season Review, containing detailed articles about a wide variety of players. The FOF staff analyzes the individual impact that each of them had and what it means for their future with the organization. This installment focuses on reliever Steven Okert. 2023 TimelineMarch 22—reported to be dealing with adductor issueMarch 30—placed on 15-day IL with left abductor strainApril 7—commenced rehab assignment at Triple-A JacksonvilleApril 21—activated from 15-day ILJuly 16—served as "opener" in first professional start since 2019Notable 2023 Statistics: 4.45 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 1.4 HR/9, 11.2 K/9 in 58.2 IP (age-31 season) Take a look at Steven Okert's two-year stretch from 2021-2022: 2.89 ERA (145 ERA+), 10.6 K/9 in 87.1 IP. Pretty good on the surface, right? But what was brewing beneath the surface during that period? A less convincing 4.35 FIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 1.2 HR/9. Okert's initial success on the heels of signing a minor league deal with the Marlins seemed somewhat fluky. His luck dried up during the second half of 2023. This isn't to say that Okert's most recent season was all bad. In some respects, the baseball gods overcorrected. He posted a career-best 11.2 K/9 while shouldering the largest workload of his big league career (58.2 IP). He lowered his BB/9 to a more respectable 3.7 figure. For the first time since 2017, his ERA (4.45) was higher than his FIP (4.09). Okert already had some trouble preventing the long ball. Among the 147 relievers to throw at least 85 innings between 2021-22, his 1.2 HR/9 ranked 114th. The difference in 2023 was he allowed them at inconvenient times. Five of the nine came with runners on base and three directly gave opponents the lead. Okert's frisbee-slider remained effective (plus-7 run value, 34 K%). However, that was entirely negated by the vulnerability of his four-seam fastball (minus-8 RV). Opponents essentially turned into 2023 Jake Burger against Okert's fastball, hitting .289 with a .518 SLG in the 96 plate appearances ending on that pitch. Most of Okert's struggles occurred following the All-Star break. The majority of his appearances down the stretch came in the sixth inning or earlier as Skip Schumaker shied away from giving him too much influence on a game's outcome. Waiver claim Matt Moore vaulted past him in the lefty reliever pecking order during the season's closing weeks. Okert made his first-ever postseason appearance in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series (1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K). Looking AheadOkert is set for arbitration for the first time ahead of the 2024 season. MLB Trade Rumors estimates that his pay will increase to approximately $1.2M if tendered a contract. Even with Moore becoming a free agent, the Marlins are well-stocked with left-handed bullpen options between Okert, Tanner Scott, Andrew Nardi, and A.J. Puk. That's without mentioning Trevor Rogers or Ryan Weathers, who theoretically could transition to the 'pen if unable to win starting rotation spots. Important to note, Okert is out of minor league options. It's up to Peter Bendix and his front office to render a verdict on whether he's a true asset to the club moving forward or a superfluous depth arm to be used as a trade chip. Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images

Relive all of the ups and downs of the 2023 Miami Marlins with our Fish On First Season Review, containing detailed articles about a wide variety of players. The FOF staff analyzes the individual impact that each of them had and what it means for their future with the organization. This installment focuses on utility player Jon Berti. 2023 TimelineAugust 21—Sets new career high with 103 games playedSeptember 24—Collects second career multi-HR gameSeptember 27—Homers in 4-2 win over New York to secure Miami's first winning record in a full-length season since 2009Notable 2023 stats: 133 G, 7 HR, 16 SB, 103 OPS+, 5 DRS, 2.5 rWAR (age-33 season) Since arriving to the Marlins organization on a modest minor league deal, Jon Berti has been a quality contributor. It seemed as though he was achieving peak performance in 2022 when he led the majors with 41 stolen bases. You could make the case that Berti's 2023 campaign was even better. He replicated his previous year's production in terms of wins above replacement, but also played 31 additional games. That increased volume helped Berti set new career highs in hits (114), home runs (7), RBI (33), total bases (157), and adjusted OPS+ (103). Berti produced 11 of Miami's go-ahead RBI in 2023, including four in the eighth inning or later, highlighted by a walk-off single to beat the Pirates on June 24. Berti completed the regular season on a high note by recording multiple hits in six of his last 10 games. Despite MLB's implementation of bigger bases and restrictions on pickoff attempts in 2023, Berti's stolen base total fell from 41 to just 16. Opportunities to steal were abundant, yet he didn't run nearly as often, and when he did, his success rate plummeted (career-worst six times caught stealing). It's not as if Berti's athleticism eroded. He only saw a marginal drop in average sprint speed, from 29.6 to 29.3 ft/sec, still putting him in the 95th percentile. Manager Skip Schumaker did note on several occasions that Berti had been dealing with general soreness. Also worth mentioning, this was Schumaker's first year on the job. Under his direction, the Marlins roster as a whole was less inclined to run than they had been with Don Mattingly in charge. Jon Berti’s 2022 and 2023 Statcast percentile rankings | Baseball SavantBerti's solid counting stats at the plate still came with some warts. He posted a career-low 85.4 mph average exit velocity, ranking in the second percentile among big league hitters. Normally a relatively patient hitter, Berti also saw a significant year-over-year drop to his walk rate, from 10.4 to 6.8 percent (77th to 30th percentile). On the other side of the ball, Berti saw time at five defensive positions. That included 52 starts at shortstop, more than doubling his previous career total there. He posted positive total zone runs at SS (+3), 3B (+2) and LF (+3). For the year, his efforts with the glove netted him a respectable six total zone fielding runs, five outs above average (OAA), and five defensive runs saved. Only Joey Wendle accrued more value by way of DRS among Marlins position players than Berti did in 2023. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/06/6d3a8f57-6dd03482-408618f5-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Looking AheadWhile it's not out of the realm of possibility for Berti to replicate his 2023 production in 2024, regression seems the safer bet. Consider the larger sample of his career, the fact that he'll be 34 years old, as well as the uncharacteristically high .349 batting average on balls in play he benefited from this past summer. The Marlins should proceed as if he'll be a versatile bench piece rather than a consistent starter at any particular spot. On Monday, the Marlins exercised Berti's 2024 team option at $3.625M, good value for a Swiss army knife-type like him. Photo by Jesus Sanchez/Fish On First

Relive all of the ups and downs of the 2023 Miami Marlins with our Fish On First Season Review, containing detailed articles about a wide variety of players. The FOF staff analyzes the individual impact that each of them had and what it means for their future with the organization. This installment focuses on utility man Garrett Hampson. 2023 TimelineMarch 26—optioned to AAA Jacksonville after hitting .158 in spring trainingApril 4—recalled from AAAJune 26—optioned to AAAJuly 5—recalled from AAAAugust 2—optioned back to AAAAugust 23—recalled once again from AAANotable 2023 Statistics: .348 OBP, .726 OPS, 1.3 rWAR "Garrett Hampson is going to take an at-bat for the Marlins in a postseason game here in 2023." You would have been totally dismissive of that absurd statement had it been presented to you at the time of Hampson's signing, and for good reason. Hampson had just exhibited a four-year run of consistently poor offensive performance for the Colorado Rockies, posting a 68 OPS+ between 2019-2022. The occasional home run, stolen base and defensive versatility hadn't made enough of a case for the Rockies to tender him at season's end. They let him go. As Kim Ng had done multiple times before with the likes of Steven Okert and Anthony Bender, she made a shrewd minor league signing by bringing Hampson in ahead of 2023. The Marlins likely do not play in the postseason without him in the picture. Much of Hampson's improvement came from his production against fastballs. After hitting only .249 (172-for-690) on said offerings between 2019-22, Hampson skyrocketed to a .352 clip and slugged .520 against them as a Marlin. Offspeed pitches were a major deficiency for him, though. In 31 plate appearances ending on these pitches, Hampson hit a microscopic .032. That led to his overall output actually being better against same-handed pitching than it was against lefties, and it challenged manager Skip Schumaker to find the appropriate situations to deploy him considering the lack of conventional platoon splits. Hampson's plate approach was also solid. He drew walks in 9.1-percent of his plate appearances, nearly matching his career-best 9.3-percent mark from 2022. https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/6f085b38-fe32-47f1-a3e9-64ef3824e5ff.mp4Hampson started games at six different positions (2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF and RF). Grading out as an average defender (-1 DRS, -1 Rfield, and 0.0 dWAR), this kind of versatility proves immensely valuable for any club. https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/07e43c0a-082b-4a45-bc80-c86bf894e728.mp4Hampson's baserunning—arguably his best tool whilst in Colorado—remained elite, rating in the 98th percentile in average sprint speed. Strangely, he only attempted five steals in 117 stolen base opportunities, per Baseball-Reference, succeeding all five times. Looking AheadWas Hampson's 2023 campaign too good to be true? Well, his expected weighted on-base average was .295, virtually identical to his career wOBA (.294). He over-performed by 28 points in that respect, which will be hard to replicate. His 2024 projections will inevitably call for some regression. Worth noting too, unlike this past season, he'll be out of minor league options moving forward, so the Marlins won't be able to demote him to Jacksonville unless he clears waivers. Hampson is arbitration-eligible, having yet to accrue enough service time to hit free agency. Unlike the Rockies a year ago, the Marlins ought to be eager to tender him a contract. Look for him to suit up with Miami next year, continuing to plug whichever positional needs present themselves. Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images

Relive all of the ups and downs of the 2023 Miami Marlins with our Fish On First Season Review, containing detailed articles about a wide variety of players. The FOF staff analyzes the individual impact that each of them had and what it means for their future with the organization. This installment focuses on infielder Luis Arraez. 2023 TimelineJanuary 20—traded from Minnesota Twins to Miami Marlins in exchange for Pablo López and prospects José Salas and Byron ChourioMarch 11-18—represented Venezuela in the World Baseball ClassicApril 12—went 4-for-5 in Philadelphia en route to authoring the first cycle in Marlins historyJune 25—entered play hitting .401 ahead of his 73rd game of the seasonJuly 11—collected two hits and an RBI in MLB All-Star GameSeptember 15—recorded first career multi-HR game in 9-6 comeback victory against AtlantaSeptember 18—became first Marlin since Dee Strange-Gordon in 2015 to collect 200 hits in a seasonSeptember 19—sprained left ankle during pre-game infield practiceNotable 2023 statistics: .354 BA, 203 H, 5.5 K%, 133 OPS+, 4.9 rWAR In what was arguably the boldest trade of Kim Ng's tenure, the Marlins packaged Pablo López and a pair of prospects to the Twins for Luis Arraez. Although fresh off winning the AL batting title, the acquisition of Arraez was risky considering the immense value going the other way and some of the perceived limitations to his game. Fortunately, the deal paid dividends for both sides. Minnesota quickly locked up López long term, and he responded with a 234-strikeout regular season and two stellar postseason outings for a Twins team that won the AL Central. As for Miami, Arraez thrived under MLB's new shift restrictions, flirting with a .400 batting average deep into the summer and ultimately finishing at .354 to win his second consecutive batting title. Arraez is the first player since Josh Hamilton (.359 in 2010) to best a .350 batting average in a non-shortened season and he became the first player ever to win consecutive batting titles in both the American and National League. His new employer also made their first full-season playoff appearance since 2003, thanks in large part to the starring role Arraez played. No particular pitch type disarms him. On fastballs, Arraez hit .353. On breaking pitches, he hit .359. On offspeed offerings, he hit .351. Whatever you throw him, turn around and get familiar with watching the ball sail into the outfield grass. It's no wonder he became just the 22nd player since 1901 with at least three five-hit games in a single season. Luis Arraez's production by pitch group | Baseball SavantArraez's strikeout avoidance makes him a unicorn in today's game. He became the first player since Plácido Polanco in 2007 to be K'd fewer than 35 times in a season of 600-plus plate appearances. Getting ahead in the count against him was hardly an advantage for opposing pitchers. With an average exit velocity of just 88.3 mph, Arraez ranked in the 29th percentile among qualified big leaguers, according to Baseball Savant. However, in an ode to dead ball martyr Wee Willie Keeler, Arraez "hit 'em where they ain't" to set up and drive in Marlins runs. His average launch angle dropped year-over-year (from 12.9 to 11.5 degrees) and he exploited the middle of the field. Arraez also tallied a career-best 10 home runs. Since 1951, there have only been five qualified seasons where a hitter hit .350 or better, homered at least 10 times, and struck out less than 35 times: Stan Musial (1957), George Brett (1980), Tony Gwynn (1994, 1997), and Arraez in 2023. Despite living in an entirely different generation, Arraez feels like a hitter in the mold of these men. Marlins fans were enamored with his throwback style. Looking Ahead As the Twins did with Pablo López, it is without debate that incoming Marlins front office leadership ought to extend Luis Arraez and ensure he remains in Miami for the long haul. On a roster that feels primed for a shakeup this offseason, one of the few certainties lies in the fact that Miami can pencil Arraez in as their starting second baseman for 2024. Photo by Danis Sosa/Fish On First

It goes without saying the 2023 season brought with it many surprises for the Miami Marlins: late-game comebacks, a near-historic record in one-run games, an 8-game skid following the All-Star break, culminating in an improbable playoff berth. It was a rollercoaster in the most literal sense of the word. Looking ahead to 2024, expectations have been raised. Miami has never reached the postseason in consecutive years. Assuming that GM Kim Ng remains in place and owner Bruce Sherman approves of increased investment in the major league roster, it's not unreasonable to dream about. However, any path that leads back to October hinges on outside reinforcements (being outscored by 57 runs is not a sustainable model). Here are some free agent names who could help the 2024 club in one way or another, while also not breaking the bank. SP Seth Lugo Notable 2023 Stats: 3.57 ERA (115 ERA+), 2.2 BB/9, 5.63 IP/GS The news that staff ace and reigning NL Cy Young Sandy Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery leaves the Marlins with little choice but to make moves to augment their 2024 starting rotation. The addition of Seth Lugo could be a sleeper hit move to fill some of the 200-plus inning gap created by Alcantara's absence. After spending the first five seasons of his career playing the Ross Stripling role of bouncing between the bullpen and starting rotation, the Mets entrenched Lugo firmly into their bullpen heading into 2021. Over the next two years, Lugo authored 111 ⅓ innings of 3.56 ERA ball (111 ERA+), while also striking out more than a batter per inning (10 K/9). Upon joining the Padres for the 2023 season, the right-hander saw himself return to the starting rotation, posting a Xerox-like 3.57 ERA, this time over a career-best 146 ⅓ frames. He finished the campaign on a high note, coming up just one out shy of shutting out the Giants on Sept. 26. Lugo's success could largely be attributed to the leaps he took with his sinker, posting a run value of plus-11 after being worth minus-4 runs each of the last two seasons. Lugo declining his $7.5M player option for 2024 and re-entering free agency appears to be a formality. OF/1B Mark Canha Notable 2023 Stats: .355 OBP, 15.6 K%, 2.2 rWAR None of what Mark Canha does "wows" you, but his consistency deserves some praise. Canha has a .364 OBP since the start of 2018. During the last two seasons (mostly with the Mets), he posted a solid .259/.359/.395 slash line (114 OPS+). Even better was the fact that Canha accompanied his patient approach (9.5 BB%) with a lower-than-league-average K% (17.6). A move to Milwaukee at the trade deadline saw Canha rediscover some of that lost power, as evidenced by a 75-point rise in his OPS. While the Marlins got similar surface-level production out of Bryan De La Cruz in 2023 (.411 SLG, .715 OPS), the difference is evident when comparing the two defensively. De La Cruz accrued -8 defensive runs saved (DRS) between all three outfield positions, and his -7 OAA (Outs Above Average) ranked 215th out of 263 potential fielders. Canha, on the other hand, proved closer to the middle (-1 OAA, 152nd) with bonus points for him also possessing the ability to moonlight at first base in a pinch. Canha, who turns 35 in February, has a $11.5M club option for next season. Even if the Brewers pick that up, he could be a trade target for Miami. C Austin Hedges Notable 2023 Stats: 99th percentile in Fielding Run Value, 98th percentile in Framing, 11 DRS If there were ever a catcher to supplant Jeff Mathis in today's game, it may be Austin Hedges. Simply put, he cannot hit. Hedges owns a career .568 OPS in 2,213 plate appearances, good enough for -3.4 oWAR. Among the 266 hitters with at least 2,000 PA since 2015, Hedges's adjusted 55 OPS+ is by far the worst in the majors. The 122-point gap between Hedges and the number 1 hitter in that span, Mike Trout (177), is the same as the difference between Rickey Henderson (127) and hitter Greg Maddux (5). So, why do we have him here? As undoubtedly bad as he has been offensively, he has been the exact opposite and then some defensively. Since debuting in 2015, Hedges' 86 defensive runs saved are the most among all catchers and sixth-most among all players in the sport. Only Tyler Flowers (70) and Yasmani Grandal (62) added more strikes to their respective pitching staff in that span than Hedges (61), and only Caleb Joseph saved more runs (15) than him (14), per Fielding Bible's Adjusted ER Saved metric. While the aforementioned Grandal (another free agent) provides more potential upside at the plate, Hedges has managed to sustain his high-level caliber of defense longer. Couple that with a Marlins organization that could very well move on from Jacob Stallings, and the fact that Hedges will come dirt cheap, a potential tandem of Hedges and Nick Fortes could give the 2024 Fish a brick wall behind home plate. Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Braxton Garrett has been the Marlins' most consistent starter here in 2023, but there's an element of his deep pitch mix that continues to hinder his success. In an era where more eyes are centered on the radar gun than ever before, Garrett's low-90s fastball velocity is an outlier. He ranks only in the eighth percentile among MLB pitchers in that category. However, he has demonstrated more than enough craft and guile to overcome his "lack of stuff" en route to accruing 3.9 Baseball-Reference WAR, improbably leading the Marlins rotation and ascending to sixth-best among all NL pitchers. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-06/22/8c8c277a-9ec5a988-6144f4e9-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Garrett's ability to control the strike zone has been crucial. His 1.56 BB/9 is fourth-lowest in the majors (min. 150 IP). He's had 11 walk-less starts this season, which keeps him efficient and mitigates the damage wrought by hard-hit balls. The variety of Garrett's pitch types makes him unpredictable for opponents. His sinker, slider and cutter have been worth 25 runs better than average collectively, per Baseball Savant. Garrett's 2023 run value by pitch type | Baseball SavantIf there is a crux to the former first-round pick's pitch arsenal, it's his curveball. Scouts lauded it as Garrett matriculated through the Marlins farm system and it proved to be the most serviceable offering in his debut cameo in 2020. But it didn't contribute much to out-getting in the two seasons to follow: 2021: -3 RV, .444 BA, .722 SLG2022: -1 RV, .381 BA, .619 SLGThe old saying "third time's the charm" didn't apply in this case, unfortunately. Hitters have torched Garrett's curveball this season to the tune of a .515 batting average, an absurdly high 1.091 SLG, and a minus-9 run value. Of the six pitches that he features, the curveball is also routinely hit the hardest, averaging 93.4 miles per hour off the bat, empowering his opposition to square it up with the regularity of Yandy Díaz or J.D. Martinez. Here's where Garrett ranks in 2023 among the 171 pitchers to have at least 25 plate appearances conclude with a curveball. -9 run value: 168th-4.4 RV/100: 171st.515 BA: 171st1.091 SLG: 171st60% Hard Hit: 171stLowest curveball run value among MLB pitchers in 2023 | Baseball SavantWhile there is intangible value to having a "show pitch" that upsets hitters' timing, anything that generates outputs akin to a player whose attributes are turned up to 99 in MLB The Show is a net negative. Hypothetically, what would happen to Garrett if he took the curveball out of the equation entirely? Despite throwing the pitch only 8.5 percent of the time, it has yielded five of his 18 home runs. Stripping those from the record would drop his 2023 HR/9 rate from 1.04 to 0.75, a mark that would rank third among the 56 pitchers to throw at least 150 innings. While there is no shame in allowing homers to Rafael Devers and Marcell Ozuna—as Garrett has with his curveball in 2023—it's not as easy to excuse against the likes of Jurickson Profar and...Carter Kieboom? https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/694f77fe-7f52-4ebe-99c4-8dbd6cf0b44e.mp4Garrett rides into the final week of the 2023 NL Wild Card race on a hot streak, having allowed only two earned runs in his last four starts. One of the keys to his success? Nobody has recorded a hit against his curveball during that span. Replacing Garrett's curveballs with merely average pitches could conceivably elevate him from a rock-solid mid-3.00's ERA arm to an All-Star-caliber sub-3.00 ERA contract extension candidate. In the meantime, Garrett has remained loyal to his curve by using it in all 30 of his appearances this season. That hasn't stopped the Marlins from going 21-9 (.700 W%) in those contests. It'll be fascinating to observe whether he continues to trust it with so much at stake for the Fish. Photo by Jesus Sanchez/Fish On First

"Every game down the stretch is important." As sick as you may be of hearing that sentiment, it carries more meaning to the Miami Marlins with each passing day. Their 6-1 victory on Sunday clinched the series against the probable NL Central champion Milwaukee Brewers. Suffice to say winning any series is huge, but winning a series against a team after they erupted for 16 runs in their opening salvo on Friday and doing so in the midst of Wild Card chase ought to be especially satisfying for Marlins fans. Of the club's 17 hits on the afternoon, nine came at the expense of Milwaukee starter Freddy Peralta, matching a season-high setback on April 15. Edward Cabrera provided the club with another strong outing, allowing just one run over five-plus innings, striking five and walking two to pick up his seventh win of the season. The recent success of Cabrera, who spent time at AAA following a demotion earlier this year, serves as a much-needed shot in the arm for a club coping with the losses of reigning NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara and rookie phenom Eury Pérez. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-09/24/59130e11-12fdfb01-6e351e66-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4"We've talked about next man up for a majority of the year," said Skip Schumaker. "We've had a lot of injuries...It tests your depth, it tests your staff's belief in guys, and I think there's leadership in that clubhouse that allows us to get where we're at." One of those leaders in question, longest active tenured position player Jon Berti, proved a vital part of the Miami effort, swatting two home runs in the victory. Berti's second of the day came on the heels of a 13-pitch at-bat that saw him foul off seven different Julio Teheran offerings before going opposite field to secure the second multi-home run game of his career. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-09/24/8488c56c-5cddd2cf-4265b23c-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Josh Bell factored into the winning effort thanks to reaching base four times on the strength of three hits and his 11th home run since joining the Marlins. In 48 games since coming over from Cleveland, Bell has seen his season OPS go from .701 to .748. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-09/24/170105f6-168f3448-acddc103-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4The bullpen provided four scoreless innings of relief of Cabrera, highlighted by recently claimed Matt Moore bailing Cabrera out of a two-on, no-out jam in the top of the sixth. The apex of the Marlins bullpen performance Sunday came when Tanner Scott shut the door by recording his 99th, 100th and 101st strikeouts of the season. With six games to go and everything to lose, the Marlins will go through the Mets and Pirates in order to determine whether they will be playing playoff baseball here in 2023. Of Note Xavier Edwards, starting at 2B in place of Luis Arraez, collected his first career three-hit game in the victory.Miami's win, their 81st of the 2023 season, clinched their first full non-losing season since 2009. Finishing the home schedule with 46 wins, the 2023 Marlins finished tied with the 2001 and 2002 squads for third-most such victories in franchise history. Scott joins just Kyle Barraclough (2016) as the only other Marlins reliever to strike out 100 or more batters in a season (David Phelps collected 114 strikeouts in 2019, though 32 of those came across 5 starts). Looking Ahead Monday will make for the Marlins' last off-day before embarking on a six-game road trip to conclude the regular season. When play resumes Tuesday, Miami opens up in Citi Field to take on the New York Mets. Braxton Garrett (9-6, 3.53 ERA) will vie for his 10th win of the season in what could be his ultimate outing here in 2023. Garrett turned in six innings of one-run ball in his last outing against New York on Sept. 19 in Miami's only win of that series. The Mets will go finesse-on-finesse, as Joey Lucchesi (3-0, 2.88 ERA) is set to take the hill in Tuesday's 7:10 opener. Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images

Charlie Morton's 96-mph fastball hissed over the outside part of the plate in the bottom of the 3rd inning, but Jazz Chisholm Jr. saw to it that it would not make contact with Travis d'Arnaud's mitt. No less than 8 seconds later, when the ball landed in the right-center field grass some 417 feet from home plate, the eruption of the fans was akin to something that would have permeated the Colosseum Walls during the Ancient Olympic Games. Chisholm's missile would make for his second grand slam in as many days, as well as the second for a Marlins team that had hit none in their first 148 games to open the 2023 season, and it engorged their lead to 5-0. But if you thought that was bad, how about back-to-back 4-run innings in the 6th and 7th? Well, the Marlins did just that, and with some oomph behind them. After plating a run in the 5th after Morton issued four consecutive two-out walks, Jorge Soler—playing in his first game since returning from IL and having already reached base twice on the day—reminded his teammates and fans of what they had missed these past two weeks when he sent a long two-run home run into the left field seats to up the lead to 7. In the ensuing 4-run 7th, more power, this time Jake Burger's second home run in as many days, to give Miami a 14-0 lead, one they certainly would not relinquish, as they ran away with this one, 16-2, setting a season-high in runs scored. With the win, the Marlins secured their first series sweep against Atlanta since September 25-27, 2015, and reached the 78-win plateau for the first time since 2016. Miami outscored the Braves 36-13 in the weekend series. "Our swing decisions this series were exceptional. It just shows you our offense is clicking at the right time," Skip Schumaker said. Pending Sunday night's game between fellow NL Wild Card contenders the Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks, the Marlins find themselves tied for the third and final spot. Due to the tiebreakers they hold over those clubs, they control their own destiny over the two weeks that remain in the regular season. "We played hard, but we always do," said Chisholm, who added three walks to go with his grand slam. "Our team is there to fight, and we're going to go out and do there every single pitch...We just beat the number one team in baseball." Overshadowed by the offensive explosion Sunday afternoon was the outing put forth by Jesús Luzardo, who held Atlanta bats to just 4 hits over 6 scoreless innings, picking up 8 strikeouts in the process. Now up to 194 strikeouts on the season, Luzardo has a chance to join Al Leiter as the only left-handed pitchers in Marlins history to strike out 200 or more batters in a season. Of NoteBoth teams used position players on the mound to complete the game—Nicky Lopez for the Braves and Jacob Stallings for the Fish.With his second grand slam in as many days, Jazz Chisholm Jr. became the first player in Marlins history to do so in consecutive games. The 2023 Marlins joined the 1995 club as the only two in team history with multiple streaks of 10 or more runs scored. The 1995 club did so three separate times.Miami's 36 runs scored tied a club record for most runs in any three-game span set back in 2008.Nick Fortes, who added a home run in the victory, set a career-high with 4 hits. Sunday's win probability chart | Baseball SavantLooking AheadThe Marlins continue both their final homestand of the season and divisional play on Monday when they welcome the New York Mets to LoanDepot Park. Edward Cabrera (6-7, 4.52 ERA) is slated to make his first proper start since being recalled on September 6. In the two prior starts against New York this season, Cabrera, while allowing just 2 hits over 6 2/3 innings pitched, has walked 13 batters combined in those outings. The Mets will counter with rookie José Butto (1-2, 3.46 ERA). First pitch is slated for 6:40 EST. Photo courtesy of Miami Marlins