Louis Addeo-Weiss

JUPITER, FL—Before venturing home to Miami ahead of their 32nd season of play, the Miami Marlins would host the New York Mets for one final Grapefruit League tune-up at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium. Darren McCaughan, acquired from Seattle over the offseason, tossed three perfect innings for Miami, registering 3 strikeouts in the process against the Mets B-team. The 28-year-old Long Beach native is set to open the year in Triple-A Jacksonville. Miami plated the game's first run thanks to a Luis Arraez 3rd-inning, RBI single. Arraez concluded the spring hitting .386, driving in 4. The Marlins touched up Tylor Megill for 3 runs over 5 innings in his final outing, with the club's second and third runs coming on a two-run single from newly acquired INF/OF Nick Gordon. Sunday, too, brought with it some bonus bits of feel-good vibes for Sixto Sánchez. After learning he made the Opening Day roster on Friday, Sánchez tossed 2 scoreless innings in Miami's 5-1 victory. In 9 innings spread across 6 appearances this spring, the right-hander held the opposition scoreless, striking out 8. Of initial concern, reliever Andrew Nardi's fastball velocity was down, averaging just 91 mph on the day. In 2023, Nardi's four-seamer averaged 94.6. Nardi's slider (-2.1 mph) and split-change (-1.9) were noticeably down from the previous year as well. Speaking postgame, Nardi called it "nothing to worry about," further stating it was "just one of those days." Of Note - Miami concludes their 2024 Grapefruit League slate having finished at or below .500 for the third straight spring (7-7 in 2022, 7-16 in 2023 and 10-12-5 in 2024). - Updated spring training stats for individual Marlins players are available here. - The Marlins will play an intrasquad at loanDepot Park on Tuesday. Edward Cabrera (shoulder stiffness) is set to appear in it. Looking Ahead The Marlins' next time taking the field will be under the bright lights of loanDepot park when they square off against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Opening Day, Thursday, March 28. Jesús Luzardo, coming off a strong 2023 season that saw him strike out 208 hitters over 178 ⅔ innings pitched, will make his first career Opening Day start. Pittsburgh will counter with Mitch Keller. An NL All-Star in 2023, Keller won 13 games while tossing 194 ⅓ innings, helping him net a five-year/$77M extension at the outset of spring training. First pitch is slated 4:10 EST.

JUPITER, FL—While the morning clouds and accompanying rain came and went in Jupiter, an air of gloom lingered around the Marlins throughout Sunday afternoon. Before throwing his first pitch in what was set to be his 3rd Grapefruit League outing, Edward Cabrera was removed with an apparent injury. The soon-to-be 26-year-old had just commenced his warm-up pitches when team trainer Rick Lembo and manager Skip Schumaker made their way out to the mound. The Marlins described the issue as right shoulder tightness. "It started tightening up in the bullpen, and when I went out there, it still felt tight," noted Cabrera. Though the question of whether he'll make his next start is yet to be answered, Cabrera noted feeling better once coming into the clubhouse to do some stretching drills. "It's early March and he wanted to stay out there, but it didn't make sense for me to have him push through for a couple of innings in spring training," said Skip Schumaker. In 5 innings this spring, Cabrera had not allowed an earned run and was slated for approximately 65 pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals. In his absence, the pair of Devin Smeltzer and Matt Andriese—both non-roster invitees this spring—combined to give the Marlins 3 ⅔ innings of 6-run ball, allowing 8 hits while walking 4 in Miami's 12-8 loss to the Cardinals that took 3 hours and 24 minutes to complete. On the day, Marlins pitchers combined to issue 12 walks, all coming at the hands of 6 relievers, who each walked a pair of hitters. INF Thomas Saggese, the 5th-ranked Cardinals prospect, showed off why he may soon turn heads at the big league level, going 4-for-4 with 6 RBI. In 23 at-bats this spring, the 21-year-old Saggese has hit .391 with 9 RBI. On the other side of the coin, the Marlins bore the fruits of another multi-hit day for Luis Arraez, as well as Josh Bell, who walloped his first home run of the spring with a two-run shot in the 3rd. 75d57042-350296d0-234184b0-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 In another feel-good story during an otherwise dread of an afternoon, Sunday also marked the return of Troy Johnston. Johnston, who injured his ankle in a game against the Phillies on March 1, went 1-4 with a BB, 2 RBI, and 2 K's in the loss. Looking Ahead Miami will head north to Port St. Lucie to square off against their division rival New York Mets. Trevor Rogers will make his second start of the spring, as he looks to build off the 2 scoreless innings he put forth against Houston on March 5.

WEST PALM BEACH, FL—Miami Marlins fans salivating for the opportunity to enjoy 18 innings of spring training baseball on Sunday have to make alternate arrangements. Not one, but both split-squad contests that the Marlins had been scheduled to play were called off due to rain. Miami's 1:05 ET matchup versus the St. Louis Cardinals at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium was canceled shortly after its planned start time. A.J. Puk, slated to make his second spring start in that contest, was then announced as the starter in the then-still-on game against the Nationals at CACTI Ballpark of the Palm Beaches (taking priority over NRI Yonny Chirinos). Manager Skip Schumaker and pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. were going to make the trip from Jupiter to West Palm Beach for Puk's start. Alas, precipitation caused problems there as well. Neither of these games will be made up at a later date. Weather permitting, the Marlins hope to play 20 more Grapefruit League exhibitions in the coming weeks. They've posted a 2-3-3 record through the first eight contests. Looking Ahead Miami is expected to be back in action Monday when they'll host the New York Yankees in Jupiter at 6:40 ET. Puk will get the starting nod and be relieved by Edward Cabrera, who was originally lined up to start. Be sure to follow along here at Fish On First for all future updates.

JUPITER, FL—After emerging victorious in their Grapefruit League opener against St. Louis on Saturday, the Marlins returned to Roger Dean, this time as the home team, falling 6-3 in their inaugural meeting against their division rival Washington Nationals. Making his spring debut, Jesús Luzardo looked to be in mid-season form, tossing two perfect innings, striking out 3. Luzardo, who led the club with 208 punchouts in 2023, consistently sat 95-97 mph with his fastball. "My main goal was to go out there and fill it (the strike zone) up," said Luzardo. Noted to be working on refining his changeup in 2024, Luzardo, 26, threw 6 said pitches (all for strikes), inducing 3 outs in the process. 067b3d69-58d4350f-3dd92699-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 Opposing him, MacKenzie Gore, though allowing a run via a Christian Bethancourt 2nd inning RBI single, held his own in his spring debut, striking out 4 in his 2 innings of work. Miami would plate their second run in the bottom of the 3rd by way of another newcomer, utility man Nick Gordon, who singled home Luis Arraez. Arraez, the defending NL batting champ, went 0-for-2 with a strikeout in his spring debut, reaching on a fielder's choice in his second at-bat. In what felt like a preview of what's to come in the nation's capital, outfielder James Wood, the centerpiece in the trade that sent Juan Soto to San Diego at the 2022 trade deadline, authored his second home run in as many days with a two-run shot that evened the score in the 4th. In his first two spring contests, Wood has OPS'd a 2.100 clip. Old friend Lewin Díaz delivered a payback blow to his former employer when he crushed a two-run homer of his own off recently acquired Calvin Faucher in the top of the 6th. Known as an all-field, no-hit first baseman whilst in Miami (plus-16 DRS, 1.2 dWAR), Díaz hit just .181/.227/.340 in 343 plate appearances between 2020-22. Though Miami would tack on a third run in the 8th following a Marty Costes sacrifice fly that scored Troy Johnston (3-for-3 on Sunday), Washington's parade of relievers limited the damage to close out the win. Reflecting on Johnston, who hit 26 home runs and stole 20 bases between AA and AAA last season, manager Skip Schumaker spoke glowingly of the 26-year old. "He's hitting lefties, righties, he's running the bases well. He's looking like a big leaguer." Of Note Sunday marked the return to the mound for reliever Anthony Bender, who authored a scoreless 3rd inning that saw him strike out third baseman Trey Lispcomb. Missing all of 2023 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery at the end of the 2022 season, Bender owns a career 2.90 ERA in 82 games pitched. Speaking to the media pre-game, manager Skip Schumaker noted the club expects recently signed Tim Anderson to see game action in the coming days. NRI Trey Mancini's slow start to spring continued, going 0-2 with 2 more K's. He's struck out in all 4 plate appearances to begin Grapefruit League play. Looking Ahead The Marlins will return to action at Roger Dean Stadium Monday where they'll again match up against their facility roommates, the St. Louis Cardinals, at 1:10 ET. Eury Pérez is slated to start for Miami. After serving as the home team in their first meeting on February 24, Miami will assume home field, as they did Sunday.

When watching or listening to a baseball game broadcast, "announcers discussing certain pitch types" might as well be a free space on your bingo board. You'll inevitably hear "Player A's best pitch is..." or "his bread-and-butter offering" to segue from one plate appearance to the next. The Miami Marlins were led to the 2023 postseason by their pitching staff, whose collective 17.5 fWAR ranked eighth in the majors. Let's examine a handful of intriguing individual pitch types belonging to members of that staff and explain why they ought to be ones to watch for during the 2024 season. Note: The metric we'll most commonly cite, Pitching Run Value, is defined according to Baseball Savant as, "the run impact of an event based on the runners on base, outs, ball and strike count." Other factors that were considered when putting this piece together included plate appearances (PA), batting average and expected batting average (BA and xBA), slugging percentage and expected slugging percentage (SLG and xSLG) and hard-hit rate (Hard Hit%), to name a few. Just Missed Max Meyer's slider: Tommy John surgery midway through 2022 leaves Meyer's slider as one built more on reputation at the prep and lower levels, With all of just six innings to show in his first taste of the big leagues, Meyer whirled off 41 sliders, briefly showcasing the pitch's potential (.154 xBA, 50 K%). Leaving him off was an easy decision entering this year. However, a healthy Meyer in 2024 could show us why that pitch received a 70-future grade on FanGraphs and why the outlet continues to rank him as Miami's top overall prospect. Sandy Alcantara's sinker: Were it not for the fact that Alcantara is set to miss all of 2024 as he recovers from Tommy John, Alcantara's sinker most definitely would have made an appearance on this list. For now, though, we'll include this little blurb highlighting a pitch that authored a positive-14 run value, sixth among all sinkerballers. Jesús Luzardo's slider: On the surface, a negative-4 run value would suggest Luzardo's slider was a liability in his repertoire, but there's enough here (at least for my sake) to propose it was much better. A .233 average, while respectable on its own merits, proved Luzardo a victim of poor luck considering his xBA of .170 and .288 xSLG. Among the 18 hurlers to have at least 200 PA ending in sliders, only Spencer Strider's .162 xBA proved lower. Notable too was the 52.7% K-rate "Zeus" generated on the pitch, tops among pitchers with at least 100 PA ending on sliders. The List Jesús Luzardo's four-seam fastball Kicking off the list with some heat, we have Luzardo and his primary offering. While Sandy Alcantara's four-seamer is thrown harder (98.0 mph to Luzardo's 96.7 mph), it is Luzardo's that earns the nod here, as he possesses the rotation's best fastball. Registering a plus-16 run value, by far the best such pitch on the 2023 club and tied with 2021 Trevor Rogers for most run value by a Marlins four-seamer since the metric's introduction in 2019, hitters fared to the tune of a .230 average and .381 slugging percentage against Luzardo's heater. While grading out highly, Luzardo's fastball is here in large part due to his prolific use of the pitch—his 1,375 four-seamers were 18th-most in all of baseball in 2023. On a rate basis, pitchers such as Andrew Nardi and Tanner Scott (1.6 RV/100) and Huascar Brazoban (1.3) threw the pitch more efficiently than Luzardo (1.2), and much of the batted ball data (.267 xBA, .478 xSLG) all point to signs of potential regression should the underlying and surface-level numbers meet somewhere in the middle. How hitters fare against Luzardo—the presumed Marlins Opening Day starter—and his blazing fastball will be something that will come to define his continued success in 2024. Edward Cabrera's changeup "A year ago, the other Baltimore Orioles took to calling them Cy Young, Cy Old, Cy Present, and Cy Future. That, perhaps, is because the only thing that Mike Flanagan, Jim Palmer, Steve Stone, and Scott McGregor have in common is their uncommon excellence on a pitcher's mound." This, from a 1981 piece by famed Washington Post columnist Thomas Boswell, feels loosely applicable to the current-look Marlins and their core of young, phenom-esque pitchers: Cy Young—Edward Cabrera Cy Old—Sandy Alcantara Cy Present—Jesús Luzardo Cy Future—Eury Pérez Though the first 200-or-so innings of his big league career have been ravaged by command problems (1st percentile in BB%. 2023) and sheer putaway stuff (6.6 H/9, 10.1 K/9), Cabrera has all of the makings of the potential league's best pitcher. As Luzardo's fastball does, Cabrera's changeup ranks in the 95th percentile in offspeed run value, posting a plus-9 mark in 2023. Among 58 pitchers to complete at least 100 PA on the pitch, Cabrera ranked 9th in RV/100, 1.6, while the .171 xBA ranked 7th. The aurora in Cabrera's changeup comes mostly with how hard he throws it, as evidenced by an average velocity of 92.9 mph (third among 224 changeup pitchers). While I won't rush to call it the best single pitch on this Marlins club, given how the numbers under the hood suggest it could be even better, Cabrera finally putting things together will largely depend on him continuing to befuddle hitters with his potent offspeed. Braxton Garrett's cutter TVpyZ1lfVjBZQUhRPT1fQVZNQUJWRlFYMVlBQzFOV1VRQUFBUThIQUZsUVZnTUFCMVlEQjFKV0NBQlNCMU1F.mp4 While his slider may be the superior pitch by what most metrics would indicate, Garrett's cutter earns the mention here. After he cameoed the pitch a handful of times in 2022, Garrett made regular use of the pitch last season, throwing it 17.7 percent of the time. His efforts in increased usage were awarded by way of a plus-7 run value, making it a top-20 pitch on those merits alone. It earns mention here, though, due to signs pointing to that perceived effectiveness dissipating. "It was intriguing when he added it last season, but I don't see what's remarkable about it given the pedestrian results," noted Fish On First founder Ely Sussman. While the league hit just .243 on his cutter, the 48.9-percent hard-hit rate—second-highest among 43 pitchers with at least 100 PA ending on the pitch—gives hitters an xBA of .315 (40th of 43) and xSLG and xwOBA of .573 and .383 (both 41st). While he may employ some of the game's best command, Garrett will have to resemble something akin to Greg Maddux to get away with his frequent cutter usage if he wishes to continue to succeed in getting hitters out. Tanner Scott's slider The first five-plus seasons of Tanner Scott's career made you feel for the guy. Among the 128 relievers to throw at least 200 innings between 2017-2022, Scott's 0.7 ERA-to-FIP variance ranked fifth-worst. His first season in Miami was no exception, as evidenced by his 3.67 FIP and 12.9 K/9 next to his 4.31 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. Then, in 2023, he put it all together, authoring maybe the best-pitched season by a reliever in Marlins history, posting a 2.31 ERA, and setting the single-season club record for strikeouts by a reliever (104). Suffice it to say Scott couldn't have done so without the use of his slider, a pitch that registered a plus-16 run value. Among NL pitchers to have at least 100 PA end on the pitch, only Cincinnati's Alexis Díaz and Lucas Sims registered a higher RV/9 than Scott's 2.5. Like Cabrera's changeup, the results against Scott's primary offering were anemic. Hitters hit a paltry .173 with a .237 SLG, with no luck to speak of, as the underlying metrics would suggest (.180 xBA, .229 xSLG). While Luzardo may have thrown the better slider in terms of generating whiffs (51.8% to Scott's 40.3%), Scott being a two-pitch pitcher means the lack of an elite offering off his fastball could signal disaster for him moving forward, making it evermore paramount he continues to mow hitters down with it. A.J. Puk's sweeper "A zero run value? Why is it on this list?!?" Sure, this isn't akin to most other pitches on this list, but what if I told you there's more than meets the eye about Puk's sweeper? While hitters hit .241, we see by way of a 19% hard-hit rate and .237 xwOBA bad luck intertwined with the randomness of baseball. Of the 55 hurlers to complete at least 50 PA with this pitch, Puk accounted for the sixth-lowest hard-hit rate, while posting the 14th-best whiff rate, all while it was the second most-frequented pitch in his arsenal. Given the peripherals and the fact that Miami is slated to stretch him out as a starter in Spring Training, how Puk utilizes the sweeper in 2024 will provide a fascinating insight into his evolution as a pitcher. Eury Pérez's curveball If Eury Pérez showed us anything in his 91-inning introduction to the Majors last season, it is that he throws not one, not two, not three, but possibly four plus-pitches. By run value, his four-seam, slider, curveball, and changeup were all net-positives, with none of those proving more valuable than his slider (+9), but our pick is the 20-year-old's curveball. There were 173 pitchers in 2023 who completed at least 25 PA with curveballs. By several metrics within the confines of this query, Pérez's curveball is a bonafide-top 10 offering of its kind. Hitters hit .098 (fourth-lowest), posted an xBA of .122 (seventh-lowest), slugged .171 (seventh-lowest), and whiffed 54.3 percent of the time (second-lowest). It's also worth noting the consistently weak contact he generates on the pitch, as batted balls averaged just 79.5 mph off Pérez's curve. This, as well as Pérez's aforementioned slider, explains why his breaking ball run value ranks in the 95th percentile. In a year where the team is set to be Alcantara-less, Eury is poised to be the pitcher we all ought to fawn over the most.

We're nearing the pitchers and catchers report date, marking the commencement of Spring Training. The familiar sounds of ball popping mitt and bat meeting ball will soon signal baseball's emergence from its winter slumber as the National Pastime readies itself for another year of play. For Marlins fans, though, they are straining to generate enthusiasm following an offseason of relative inactivity. Beyond the front office restructuring, Miami sits here in early February still the only club yet to sign a player to a guaranteed Major League deal. Such behavior in the wake of the team's first full-season playoff appearance since their World Series-winning 2003 has largely washed away the optimism that 2023 wrought. We noted recently what this approach (or lack thereof) may signal for the club's fortunes, but this shouldn't preclude discussion about how Miami could go about salvaging what has become of the current organization. Peter Bendix inherited a Major League club with an ill-defined core complimented by a minor league system with little in the way of reinforcements. Waiver-wire pickups won't suffice. Bendix has raved about the quality and depth of the Marlins' pitching. Let's see him use it to alleviate their concerns at other positions. Note: The viability of these hypothetical transactions were assessed using the Baseball Trade Values trade simulator. Miami Marlins trade SP Edward Cabrera to the St. Louis Cardinals for 2B Thomas Saggese We begin with a potential trade where the Marlins may be getting less than what they're parting with, though a move such as this potentially addresses more needs than just one. Even without former NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara contributing in 2024 following Tommy John surgery, Miami still has an influx of young, controllable starting pitching, of which they could parlay for future impact position players. Acquired in the deal that saw Jordan Montgomery head to Texas, Saggese—St. Louis' fourth-ranked prospect, according to Baseball Prospectus—hit .331 with a .662 SLG in 33 G for AA Springfield before earning the call to AAA for a 13-game cup of coffee to end a 2023 that saw him slash a combined .306/.374/.530/.904 in just his age-21 season. Though primarily a second baseman, Saggese also has seen time at short (37 GS), third (93 GS), and first (1 GS), which, when complimented with his uptick in power by way of his 26 home runs last season could make him a valuable big leaguer in due time. Current 2B Luis Arraez has made it known that he is open to a potential long-term extension. Nothing is reportedly close to materializing on that front, however, so Saggese would serve as a worthy heir to the position should Arraez not be long for South Florida. As for Cabrera, he has shown an aptitude for putting hitters away (10.1 K/9)—a trait that Cardinals POBO John Mozeliak has said the club is searching for—and limiting hits (6.6 H/9). He also excels at allowing free passes (5.4 BB/9), thus his 1.34 WHIP and 4.78 FIP suggest room for improvement. Given St. Louis' recent success with re-tuning starting pitchers (see Miles Mikolas and the aforementioned Montgomery), who is to say Cabrera couldn't follow in those their footsteps and turn into the ace his stuff suggests he can be? Though Saggese's strong season and accompanying track record (.298/.369/.508/.878) could make him a tough piece to part with, Cabrera's five years of club control may be the sales pitch needed to consummate this deal. Miami Marlins trade SP Max Meyer to the San Francisco Giants for OF Rayner Arias On the surface, this trade seems a bit of a stretch: a former college-level pitcher already with big-league experience being swapped for a 17-year-old with all of just 16 games in professional ball. This presents both high-risk and high-upside potential. Meyer, Miami's third-ranked prospect even after undergoing Tommy John in the second half of the 2022 season, got a brief taste of big league hitters via a 6-inning cameo that season and remains under club control through 2028. Pairing a mid-90s fastball with a 60-grade slider, Meyer is merely a changeup away from solidifying his place in a big-league rotation. For a Giants starting rotation projected 17th in SP WAR, per FanGraphs, the addition of Meyer, who will most certainly see his innings capped as works his way back from surgery, could provide a nice bridge to the likes of recently-signed Jordan Hicks, who the team plans to stretch out as a starter after spending his first five seasons in the bullpen. Though an injury limited his pro debut to just 16 games, Rayner Arias—already the club's fifth-ranked prospect—showed why he may be the next big star no one is talking about. In 76 plate appearances in the Dominican Summer League, the teenager hit like 1941 Ted Williams, slashing an absurd .414/.539/.793, hitting 4 home runs while also swiping 4 bases, totaling a 230 wRC+. Impressive, too, was his plate discipline, as Arias walked more times (15) than he struck out (11). Expected to be healthy at the outset of spring training, a longer run of games in his eventual stateside debut could see his stock continue to rise as he refines his still-raw game, so trading him now may be out of the Giants' plans. All of this being said, given the club's top pitching prospect, Kyle Harrison, appears ready to jump into a full-time big league role, Meyer would keep San Francisco's minor league pipeline going, while allowing for impact at the highest level in short order. Miami Marlins trade RP Anthony Bender to the Chicago Cubs for 3B James Triantos If you've picked up on a trend here, points for you and your intuitive nature. If not, the Miami Marlins have very little in the way of position players worth dealing for prospects, thus here we see a third pitcher being dealt in hopes of strengthening the sport's 27th-ranked farm system. Bender, like the aforementioned Meyer, missed all of 2023 after undergoing Tommy John, though when healthy, proved one of the sport's more effective late-inning arms. Between 2021-22, Bender was among the 25 relievers to toss at least 80 innings with an ERA+ of 140 or better while allowing fewer than 7 H/9. His 0.9 HR/9 ranked 6th-best among that list of hurlers. Recently declaring himself "healthy" ahead of camp, Bender should slide back into Miami's bullpen in 2024, where he'll remain under club control through 2027. Ranked just outside of the Cubs' top-10 prospects list at Baseball America following the 2023 season, Triantos, after seeing extended time at 3rd base in 2022, flaunted his positional versatility, moonlighting at second, short, left, and even center field, hitting a modest .287/.364/.391/.755 in the process. Though power doesn't appear a major asset currently (30-grade game, 45-grade raw), Triantos has been an above-average minor league bat, posting wRC+'s of 143, 102, and 115, respectively. Though his 6'1", 195-pound build projects him more as a 2B long term, should he stick at 3B, conservatively assuming he arrives in 2025, Miami could use this as leverage to move another bat recently acquired from the Windy City, Jake Burger, across the diamond to 1st. In 2023, Burger finished in both the 40th and 3rd percentiles respectively in arm strength and outs above average (OAA).

“Is this the end of the beginning? Or the beginning of the end? Losing control or are you winning? Is your life real or just pretend?” The opening lyrics from heavy metal forebearers Black Sabbath’s “End of the Beginning” can be made applicable to the fortunes of your favorite player’s respective peak, or your hometown club’s window to win. The 2023 Marlins took us on a long, strange trip en route to 84 wins and a surprise playoff appearance. Their achievements came in spite of being outscored on the season by a record 57 runs. Their behavior during this ensuing offseason reeks of an organization not believing in the validity of the recent transpiring events. Within two weeks of their elimination from the National League Wild Card Series, pioneering GM Kim Ng and the organization mutually parted ways. Ng was reportedly offered an opportunity to stay for 2024, but she would not be receiving her intended promotion to president of baseball operations. Rather, owner Bruce Sherman intended on searching elsewhere for a POBO to leapfrog her on the chain of command. No less than a month later, on November 6, Miami was again in the news, announcing their hiring of then-Rays GM Peter Bendix in the role Ng had aspired to take on. The plucking of a Tampa Bay brainiac to lead baseball ops —Andrew Friedman (Dodgers, 2014) Chaim Bloom (Red Sox, 2019), and James Click (Astros, 2020) —has been something of a trend across Major League Baseball, culminating in championships for several clubs. “Peter is an established industry leader with an extensive skillset and deep experience that will continue the momentum we have made on the Major League level," Sherman said in the initial press release. And then, the offseason rolled on, and Bendix instead brought that "momentum" to a halt. OF/DH Jorge Soler opted out of the final year of his three-year pact. The Marlins declined to issue Soler a qualifying offer. "They haven’t ruled out bringing him back if he settles for a low-money deal," reports Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. "But that’s considered unlikely." Eleven days into his Miami tenure, Bendix struck his first deal, acquiring utilityman Vidal Bruján and RHP Calvin Faucher in a five-player trade with his former employer, the Rays. December would see Bendix acquire reliever Kaleb Ort off waivers from Boston, as well as Christian Bethancourt—maybe the most significant on-field addition this offseason—to assume catching duties in 2024. The team continued their front office makeover as well with the additions of erstwhile Giants manager Gabe Kapler as assistant GM and Rachel Balkovec to serve as director of player development. Late January saw the appointing of Driveline’s Brandon Mann to a newly created “Pitcher Strategist” position. However, meaningful on-field moves continued to elude the Marlins. The incumbent roster shows some promise. Two-time reigning champion Luis Arraez stands alone as the best pure hitter in the game. MLB The Show cover athlete Jazz Chisholm Jr. combines raw ability with the flash and flare that has the potential to draw new, young fans a sport whose primary consumers are at or near middle age. Eury Pérez gave the Marlins and all of MLB a glimpse at one of the sport’s potential future aces in 2023. Braxton Garrett cemented his status in the club’s rotation last season, while Jesús Luzardo’s number-one quality stuff and corresponding 124 ERA+ since 2022 tell us he may soon contend for an NL Cy Young. The club also acquired slugger Jake Burger from the White Sox at least year’s trade deadline and he immediately demonstrated a more well-rounded offensive approach once the change of scenery took effect. And yet, none of them are locked up to extensions to keep them in Miami long term. Arraez has gone on the record as stating he is “open” to an extension with the club, but there's been nothing to indicate that the Marlins have evened approached him with a legitimate offer. With this overall lack of action to augment the roster and lack of commitment in current core players (with the exception of Sandy Alcantara), it isn't irrational to forecast that a rebuild may already be in its embryonic stages. There is also the issue of manager Skip Schumaker’s contract status. The reigning NL Manager of the Year has no guarantees beyond the 2024 season, and with Ng no longer with the organization, this suggests that Schumaker may be a goner as well. Should he be fired or leave on his own volition, the search for a replacement could be a short one given Gabe Kapler’s prior experience with Philadelphia and San Francisco. Bendix may be enticed by the opportunity to firmly put his stamp on the organization and bring in a manager of his choosing. Barring a truly non-competitive campaign, Schumaker probably wouldn't have to look far to make a lateral move to another dugout. The St. Louis Cardinals, with whom Schumaker spent the first eight seasons of his playing career, employed him as their bench coach under then-first year manager Oliver Marmol. Following a 2022 season that saw Marmol win 93 games capped off by an NL Central title, the Cardinals regressed to that of a 71-win team, their lowest winning percentage since 1995. Given the club’s penchant for playing consistently winning baseball, another season mirroring 2023 could spell Marmol’s demise in the dugout and leave a vacancy. Assessing the Marlins through a cold, objective lens, regression to the mean is to be expected in 2024. Their .702 winning percentage in one-run games is unsustainable. By sheer runs scored and runs allowed, they had a pythagorean win-loss record of merely 75-87. No MLB team had a larger discrepancy between their real-life and underlying results. Miami’s farm system is thin on near-term reinforcements. The system ranks 26th and 29th out of 30, according to FanGraphs and Bleacher Report, respectively, highlighted by Noble Meyer who's still multiple years away from debuting in the majors. Recent $1.4M amateur signing Luis Cova (not yet 17 years old) is even further away. Mimicking the polarizing tanking practices enacted by organizations such as the Cubs, Astros, Orioles or even the late-2010s Marlins doesn't appear to be on the table, but a gradual restock of the farm system through trading marquee players—reshuffling the deck to bring it in full alignment with Bendix's vision—could be coming in the not-so-distant future. That'd be a disorienting tune to hear for long-suffering Fish fans who thought a new window of relevance had just opened for them.

We've reached the dawn of 2024, and as die-hard-baseball fans do their best Rogers Hornsby ahead of Spring Training, we mark the passage of time with the announcement of the next class of National Baseball Hall of Fame inductees. Baseball traditionalists and new-age analytics apologists once again lock horns in debating why "Player X" is more deserving than "Player Y." The Hall of Fame also forces us to confront our own moral conscious, as we assess players, not only on the merits of their on-field performance, but for their off-field transgressions. We are ultimately evaluating human beings and considering whether or not to bestow baseball's highest honor upon them. Before giving you my ballot, here are the rules and requirements for Hall of Fame eligible players, outlined per the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA). To clarify, I do not belong to said organization and don't have a say in the official voting process. May Vote for in the FutureManny Ramírez—Undeniable is the sentiment of Manny Ramírez as one of the best right-handed hitters who ever lived. Look no further than a career .312/.411/.585/.996 slash line over 2,302 games and parts of 19 seasons. His career 154 OPS+ sits in the company of the game's immortals; Willie Mays (155), Hank Aaron (155), Joe DiMaggio (155), and Frank Robinson (154). However, the elephant in the room with Man-Ram is flunking PED tests in 2009 and 2011. While I've been unyielding in my support for Barry Bonds belonging in Cooperstown, the presence of failed tests in conjunction with a sudden retirement following being popped a second time, I reside myself to leaving Manny off for the time being.Álex Rodríguez—What can be said about Manny Ramírez can be said about Álex Rodríguez in a scroll long enough to span the Great Wall of China. A-Rod was something of a baseball super villain. Normally, the fuel to the fire of hatred that surrounds these players is the transgressions that accompany their on-field brilliance, and A-Rod fits this narrative to a tee. Did you know his 344 home runs in games at shortstop trail all-time leader, Cal Ripken Jr., by just one, with A-Rod getting there in 1,033 fewer games (1,264) than Ripken (2,297)? This while winning a batting title and two Gold Gloves all before turning 29. But when you on multiple occasions before receiving a 211-game suspension (eventually reduced to 162 games), creating one of the sport's biggest media-frenzy scandals, I'll again allow father time to amend my bitterness. With these in mind, I present to you my Hall of Fame ballot: 3B Adrián BeltréJAWS: 4th among third basemen 93.5 career WAR | 48.7 7yr-peak WAR | 71.1 JAWS | 5.2 WAR/162Average HOF 3B (out of 16): 68.4 career WAR | 43.1 7yr-peak WAR | 55.8 JAWS | 5.1 WAR/162 The slam-dunk of the bunch on this year's ballot, Adrián Beltré's case is so well-defined that we won't spend too much time ruminating on the brilliance of his play. Here are just a few numbers to briefly illustrate one of baseball's most enduring characters and players. 93.5 rWAR (3rd all-time among 3B), 3,166 hits (18th all-time), 477 home runs (31st), 200 defensive runs saved (t-1st), 168 total zone fielding runs (13th), 27 dWAR (15th). Not since Derek Jeter in 2020 has a player ever felt as much a lock as Beltré does in 2024. CF Carlos BeltránJAWS: 9th among center fielders 70.1 career WAR | 44.4 7yr-peak WAR | 57.2 JAWS | 4.4 WAR/162Average HOF CF (out of 19): 71.6 career WAR | 44.7 7yr-peak WAR | 58.1 JAWS | 5.4 WAR/162 Now that Beltrán got the Robert Alomar treatment for his ties to the 2017 Houston Astros sign-stealing scandal, let the numbers do the talking in rightfully enshrining him in Cooperstown. A quick bit of trivia—here are the five players in MLB history with >400 HR, >300 SB: Barry Bonds, Álex Rodríguez, Willie Mays, Andre Dawson, and Carlos Beltrán. On numbers alone, all of these names have Hall of Fame pedigrees. The separator for Beltrán, though, is his postseason pedigree. In 65 career playoff contests, Beltrán hit .307/.412/.609/1.021 with home runs and 11 stolen bases. Outside of all of this, the native of Puerto Rico ought to be elected in the context of his center field comrades, as his 70.1 rWAR ranks 8th all-time amongst players at the position, higher than the likes of Duke Snider, Dawson, and Kirby Puckett, just to name a few of already-elected players. CF Andruw JonesJAWS: 11th among center fielders 62.7 career WAR | 46.4 7yr-peak WAR | 54.6 JAWS | 4.6 WAR/162Average HOF CF (out of 19): 71.6 career WAR | 44.7 7yr-peak WAR | 58.1 JAWS | 5.4 WAR/162 If I told you that one player saved 253 runs with his defense while also hitting 434 home runs, wouldn't you think him to already be in the Hall of Fame? Alas, this is the case for Andruw Jones, who played more 17,000 innings at one baseball's premier defensive positions, and he played it better than anyone before or after him has. Between 1997-2007, Jones hit 363 home runs while saving 238 runs on the other side of the ball, amassing 60.9 rWAR in the process. Unfortunately, for Jones and the millions he awed in that decade of brilliance, his final five seasons would see him regress to the tune of a 95 OPS+ hitter whose still-modest power (.424 SLG) wasn't enough to excuse injuries and a precipitous decline in defense. From 2008-12, Jones put together just 1.7 rWAR, and his .254 career batting average upon his retirement has led some to hold off in casting their support for him. If someone like Harmon Killebrew, a career .256 hitter, is only in Cooperstown due to his 573 home runs—a mark surpassed by 11 different players—and the guy who saved more runs than any other outfielder in history can't get in, that seems to set a bit of a double standard. And when you assess his career as a whole, Jones and the aforementioned Adrián Beltré are the only two players in baseball history with 400-plus home runs and 200-plus fielding runs, an illustrator of multi-faceted baseball mastery and longevity. And with ballot more vacant of PED-associated players, Jones, after garnering 58.1% in 2023, may finally get the call that's long eluded him. C/1B Joe MauerJAWS: 7th among catchers 55.2 career WAR | 39.0 7yr-peak WAR | 47.1 JAWS | 4.8 WAR/162Average HOF C (out of 16): 53.6 career WAR | 34.7 7yr-peak WAR | 44.2 JAWS | 4.7 WAR/162 Johnny Bench is the consensus best catcher in baseball history. Mike Piazza is the best offensive catcher in baseball history. Joe Mauer was arguably the best pure hitter to don the "tools of ignorance." Among 133 catchers in baseball history to catch at least 850 games, Mauer's .889 OPS in these contests ranks third best all-time, trailing only the prior-referenced Piazza (.942) and Mickey Cochrane (.894), who took his last breath 21 years before Mauer's birth. Even if you solely credit Mauer with the 39 WAR he accrued as a catcher, he'd still sneak inside the top-30 all-time among backstops. In that span from 2004-2012, Mauer collected an AL MVP (2009), 3 consecutive Gold Gloves, and became the only catcher in MLB history to collect 3 batting titles. While his first season as a full-time first baseman in 2013 merited 5.5 wins of value, Mauer (to a much-lesser extent than Jones) regressed from being Bench-like as a catcher to James Loney over his final five seasons (105 OPS+ to Loney's career 104). Maybe a more favorable comparison to draw to Mauer is another first-year eligible player in 2024, David Wright. Like Mauer, Wright had a lot of the potential value and Hall of Fame surety taken from him due to injuries and ensuing degradation, though Mauer's torrid start to his career in conjunction with what we'll label a modest decline in performance culminated in 55.2 WAR and 2,123 hits, which feels sufficient enough for a plaque in Cooperstown. 1B Todd HeltonJAWS: 15th among first basemen 61.8 career WAR | 46.6 7yr-peak WAR | 54.2 JAWS | 4.5 WAR/162Average HOF 1B (out of 24): 65.0 career WAR | 41.8 7yr-peak WAR | 53.4 JAWS | 4.8 WAR/162 From a player in Mauer whose status as "borderline" would feel merited given what we as viewers were deprived of, Todd Helton presents a case that further screams "Hall of Famer" the more you peruse his Baseball-Reference page. You can make a case that the election of Helton's former Colorado teammate, Larry Walker, helped break down the Coors Field bias. Since 1945, Helton's .316 career batting average is 9th best all-time among hitters with a minimum of 5,000 plate appearances. Helton never won an MVP award, but perhaps he should have? In 2000, Helton led all MLB players in doubles (59), RBI (147), average (.372), slugging percentage (.698), OPS (1.162), and joined the elusive 400-total bases club, the first of two times he'd do so. Despite also leading the league in sabermetric stats such as WAR (8.9), WPA (9.0), and Base-Out Wins Added (7.6), Helton would somehow finish just 5th in an NL MVP that ultimately went to an NL West rival and player with a strong Hall of Fame case of his own, Jeff Kent. Circling back to the Coors argument, while Helton was a noticeably inferior hitter away from the Rocky Mountains (.855 OPS on the road compared to 1.048 at home), his road OPS still sits above 113 position players already in the Hall. Falling oh-so-close to the necessary 75-percent needed to earn induction in 2023 (72.2%), 2024 should be the year that Helton finally gets the call to the Hall. 2B Chase UtleyJAWS: 12th among second basemen 64.5 career WAR | 49.3 7yr-peak WAR | 56.9 JAWS | 5.4 WAR/162Average HOF 2B (out of 20): 69.6 career WAR | 44.4 7yr-peak WAR | 57.0 JAWS | 5.1 WAR/162https://fishonfirst.com/non-marlins/chase-utley-hall-of-fame-case/If you follow along with us here at Fish On First, you'll know I recently did a profile on Utley's career, asserting why I feel he's a more-than-deserving Hall of Famer. On the merits of WAR alone, his total of 64.5 has him as the 15th best second baseman in baseball history. Among the more well-rounded players in recent memory, there simply didn't seem to be a thing that Chase Utley failed to do well. He hit the 5th-most home runs of any 2B in MLB history (252), stole bases more often than anyone in MLB history with at least 175 attempts (87.5%) and accrued the 6th most runs from fielding according to Rfield among 2B (131). Sure, the counting stats—particularly the 1,885 career hits—the fact that he never never won an MVP, and the slide that took out Mets shortstop Ruben Tejada may rub some the wrong way. However, when you have not only the best player on a Phillies club that won five consecutive division titles, two pennants and a World Series (where he had a career 1.046 OPS), there's no denying that Chase Utley's career has Hall of Fame written all over it. RF Bobby Abreu JAWS: 21st among right fielders 60.2 career WAR | 41.6 7yr-peak WAR | 50.9 JAWS | 4.0 WAR/162Average HOF RF (out of 28): 71.1 career WAR | 42.4 7yr-peak WAR | 56.7 JAWS | 5.1 WAR/162 After hanging on by mere threads in his first three years of eligibility, Bobby Abreu nearly doubled the 8.6% he received in 2022 when he appeared on 15.4% of ballots the following year. And though I don't expect 2024 to be the year we see him finally get in, a continued ascent would too prove encouraging. But what exactly is sparking the gradual Bobby Abreu love affair? Generally speaking, we tend to put power and speed in different buckets of premium baseball skills. Abreu had both in spades. Power-Speed, a Bill James-derived metric that sets out to find the "harmonic mean" between home runs and stolen bases, is very pro-Abreu in its applications. His 334.88 P-S has him 14th all-time, ahead of fellow Hall of Famers Reggie Jackson, Paul Molitor, Ryne Sandberg, Frank Robinson, and Larry Walker, to name a few. Even rarer air is the 275 HR/400 SB/.395 OBP club. That club only includes 3 names: Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson, and, yep, you guessed it, Bobby Abreu. During his peak from 1998-2005, only four players, all of whom were mentioned above, were worth more than Abreu's 45.2 WAR, according to Baseball-Reference. Sure, his career WAR of 60.2 is below the mean for HOF right fielders, but given a vast majority of Abreu's competition likely played as "enhanced" version of themselves, whose to say how much more valuable he would have appeared had the playing field been more on the level. Despite this, there still sat an 8-year period where he was among the game's best all-around players, and that sustained high-level play, in conjunction with the fact that the latter half of his career still produced a .374 OBP in a 4,400 plate appearance sample, is good enough for me. RP Billy WagnerJAWS: 6th among relief pitchers 27.7 career WAR | 19.8 7yr-peak WAR | 23.7 JAWS | 24.9 R-JAWS | 2.2 WAR/162Average HOF RP (out of 8): 39.1 career WAR | 26.0 7yr-peak WAR | 32.5 JAWS | 29.7 R-JAWS | 2.5 WAR/162 WAR apologists will take one look at Wagner's 27.7 WAR and immediately shun the notion of him as to having a legitimate Hall of Fame case. Are there reservations about electing a guy who threw less than 1,000 innings? Sure, and the my pro-WAR leanings also make this pick a bit begrudged, but Wagner's dominance, at least to me, transcends the metric. Knowing the cumulative nature of the metric, though, and given relievers don't necessarily accrue enough volume to amass high WAR totals, Wagner's case takes shape when you assess how historically great he was at preventing runs. Among pitchers to throw at least 900 innings, only Mariano Rivera's 205 adjusted ERA+ is higher than Wagner's 187, thanks to a career 2.31 ERA. As much as fans have marveled at the likes of Ichiro Suzuki and Luis Arraez for their playing out of an older, long-lost era of baseball, Wagner ought to be celebrated for the groundbreaking nature at which he went about facing hitters. Before his debut in 1995, no reliever with at least 750 innings pitched had a K/9 higher than 9. In his 903 innings, Wagner struck out an unheard of 11.9 batters per 9. The last decade-plus has seen the likes of Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel, and Kenley Jansen, relief pitchers who put batters away doing their best Billy Wagner impersonation. These four names all share the record with 6 seasons of at least 50 innings pitched, sub-2.50 ERA, and >10 K/9, and given his 68% of support in 2023, 2024 could see Wagner further embrace trailblazer status. OF/3B Gary Sheffield JAWS: 24th among right fielders 60.5 career WAR | 38.0 7yr-peak WAR | 49.3 JAWS | 3.8 WAR/162Average HOF RF (out of 28): 71.1 career WAR | 42.4 7yr-peak WAR | 56.7 JAWS | 5.1 WAR/162Given this is a Marlins-first blog, and given this is his tenth and final year of eligibility, I felt it appropriate to leave Sheffield for last. Sure, Sheffield was named in the Mitchell Report, but I can forgive a guy who ultimately opened up about his unintentional use of PEDs. Mark McGwire may not get into Cooperstown, but him admitting his transgression ultimately opened the door for him to work in baseball as a coach, so revisionist history suggests Sheffield's transparency ought to be rewarded. If you want to take him at his word, prior to using a banned substance following the 2002 season, Sheffield had already hit .296/.399/.520/.919, and smashed 340 home runs. In the seven seasons following that, he hit .284/.380/.502/.882, good enough to be 30-percent better than the league-average hitter. While his defensive metrics leave a lot to be desired—minus-195 Rfield, -27.7 dWAR—Sheffield's 80.7 oWAR is in the tier of Frank Thomas (80.4). Lost too is Sheffield's performance on the basepaths, as he swiped 253 bags and ranks 13th all-time in Power-Speed. That consistently high volume of offensive performance, as well as that famous and often-imitated bat wiggle responsible for 509 home runs, stick out most when I think of Sheffield. The BBWAA is set to announce the inductees of the 2024 class on January 23. Photo by Andrew Dieb/Icon Sportswire

After coming out of the gate slow in his first year with the Marlins in 2022, Jorge Soler returned to form in 2023. He slugged 36 home runs en route to his first career All-Star selection, leading Miami to their first full-season playoff berth since 2003. As was to be expected, Soler opted out of the final season of his three-year, $36M contract with his sights set on another payday a la free agency. Unquestionably, the 2024 Marlins lineup would look better with Soler than without him, but should he really be their primary DH target this offseason? I'd posit that Teoscar Hernández is the more attractive option for said role, and there are several good reasons as to why. Consider the three-year sample encompassing the 2021 through 2023 seasons: Teoscar Hernández vs. Jorge Soler head-to-head stats comparison | StatheadThe first number of note, Hernández's 8.6 WAR in this period dwarfs Soler's 2.1. The latter took 320 fewer plate appearances from 2021-2023, but that gap in value largely comes from quality of performance. For context, only one player in MLB history has managed to accrue at least 6 WAR—the approximate gap between Hernández and Soler—in a season of fewer than 320 plate appearances. His name was Josh Gibson, the legendary Negro Leagues catcher who accounted for 6.3 wins across just 302 tracked plate appearances for the 1943 Homestead Grays. Soler had stretches of excellence. He posted an .882 OPS with Atlanta following a 2021 trade deadline deal and earned MVP honors in the ensuing World Series. This past year, he erupted for double-digit home runs in the months of May and August. Outside of that, though, he was unremarkable. As for Hernández, he made his first—and to this point, only—All-Star team in 2021, representing the Blue Jays after hitting .296/.346/.524 with 32 HR, 116 RBI, and even swiping a career-best 12 bases. Hernández's 131 OPS+ ranked 10th among 42 outfielders that season who qualified for the batting title. After posting a similarly impressive 2022 (finishing 28-percent better than the league average hitter), Toronto flipped Hernández to the Mariners in a swap that included reliever Erik Swanson. Even in a down 2023, he had a 106 OPS+ in 160 games during his age-30 season. Beyond the bat, Hernández displays a stronger albeit still below-average defensive profile. Per Baseball-Reference, he has accounted for negative-3 runs from fielding since 2021, while Soler has been worth negative-17. Hernández logged more than twice as many defensive innings over that span. Soler started only 31 games in the outfield in 2023, in part to cede opportunities to superior defenders and also to manage his recurring back issues. Being passable with the glove is meaningful for the Marlins. Their projected starting left fielder, Bryan De La Cruz, was roughly replacement level last year and their projected starting right fielder, Jesús Sánchez, struggles against lefty pitching. There figure to be at-bats available at both outfield corners. One more factor to consider when choosing between these two bats is durability. Between 2021-2023, Hernández appeared in 484 of his team's 536 games (89.7%); Soler managed to see playing time in just 358 games in this span (74%). Wouldn't you rather take the player with superior recent production (121 OPS+ to 109 OPS+) when there's also more certainty that said player will be available on the field? Despite Soler's shortcomings, he'd still provide a considerable positive impact while likely being the cheaper option of the two. The Marlins are familiar with him on a personal level and know he won't be intimidated by playing home games in a ballpark that notoriously suppresses power-hitting. As of Wednesday morning, the Marlins are one of five MLB teams who haven't inked a major league free agent yet. Fans are understandably angsty. That sentiment would instantly change if they did what it takes to secure the services of Hernández or Soler. Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images

Growing up in South Florida, my formative memories in the late-oughts/early 2010s as a then-Florida Marlins fan were that of the Philadelphia Phillies being an absolute powerhouse. From a period of 2007-2011, the club captured five consecutive NL East crowns, won consecutive pennants in 2008 and 2009, as well as the 2008 World Series. Simply put, adolescent me hated the Phillies with a fervor. With the passage of time, though, I'm able to digest that era through a more objective lens. Those great Phillies teams, constructed with the help of Pat Gillick and Ruben Amaro Jr., were rife with marquee players of the likes of Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels, Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth. Then came future Hall of Famer Roy Halladay, diverting even more of my attention towards them. However, Halladay's plaque shouldn't stand as the lone Cooperstown acknowledgement of that special group. One piece of their winning core always seemed to stick out more than the rest: second baseman Chase Utley. He's a polarizing player. Sabermetricians are rather pro-Utley. On the other end of the spectrum, traditionalists can and will find their fair share of reasons as to why his career appears insufficient. I feel Utley has among the more compelling Hall of Fame cases in recent memory. At His Peak When Utley was at his best, not only was he among the best players in baseball—let alone his own team—but among the greatest second basemen the game had yet seen. Between 2005-2010, the Pasadena native put up 45.5 WAR, according to Baseball-Reference. Among all players in this stretch, only Albert Pujols (52.1) proved more valuable than Utley. Peak Utley outperformed the likes of Álex Rodríguez (38.3), Joe Mauer (31.8), David Wright (30.0) Matt Holliday (29.2), Ádrian Beltré (29.0), and Carlos Beltrán (27.8), all of whom have compelling cases of their own. How did Utley usurp all of these superstar players? He separated himself thanks to the well-rounded nature of his game, accumulating value by being adept at each skill that one and many a contemporary of his may have lacked. From 2005-2010, Utley hit 162 home runs, a modest 18th in that stretch, but still nearly as many as Vladimir Guerrero (163), Manny Ramirez (165), Jim Thome (166), and the aforementioned Holliday (166). However, none of them played their respective defensive positions to the degree of Utley, whose 119 defensive runs saved led all of baseball over this span. Defense is only one piece of the puzzle, though one that largely gets underrated when assessing the worth of players past and present. https://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/mp4/2019/05/28/1435549/1559067381225/asset_2500K.mp4Let us shift the conversation back to the batter's box. While Utley only hit 162 homers throughout this six-season peak, the combination of his ability to hit for doubles power (216 2B), better-than-average eye (10.2 BB%), and knack for hit by pitches (117) helped him total 170 batting runs (Rbat). For context, that's seven more than teammate Ryan Howard, who hit 89 more home runs than Utley (and more than any other MLB player). This leads us to another underappreciated aspect of his game: baserunning. Utley's 90 stolen bases in this stretch came in just 102 attempts. The 28th-highest total in the league was enough to rank eighth-best in Runs from Baserunning (Rbaser) thanks to a success rate of 88.06%. Using the metric WAR7, which accounts for a player's seven best seasons, Utley's 49.3 puts him ninth all-time among second basemen. That's better than Hall of Famers Ryne Sandberg, Joe Gordon, Frankie Frisch, Roberto Alomar, Craig Biggio, Billy Herman, Nellie Fox, Bobby Doerr, Tony Lazzeri, Johnny Evers, Red Schoendienst, Bid McPhee, Bill Mazeroski, and Miller Huggins. "Where It Matters Most"It's one thing to be the best player on your team, but to be the best player on a team that won five consecutive division titles is this to the second power. To many, what players do in the regular season—while important—pales in comparison to what they do on the big stages of postseason play. Among players with at least 50 career postseason games, Utley's .364 on-base percentage ranks inside the top 25 all-time. In 15 career World Series games, though only hitting .200, he managed to slug .689 with a 1.046 OPS. In the 2009 WS that saw his Phillies fall to the Yankees in six games, Utley slashed a combined .286/.400/1.048/1.448 with 5 HR, 8 RBI, and 1 SB. DrawbacksAs great as peak Utley was, his case for Cooperstown is not as slam-dunk as one would like. Maybe the biggest statistical roadblock impeding Utley's path is his pedestrian hit total of 1,885. Purists would say, "You can't have less than 2,000 hits and somehow be in the Hall of Fame." Excluding Negro League players given the scant game log data, we see that of the 168 primary big league position players in the Hall, only 30 of them had fewer hits than Utley. There's also the lack of accolades sitting on Utley's mantle. He was only a six-time All-Star, and despite his monstrous peak, Utley never won an MVP award. In his best season by WAR, a nine-win season in 2008 that stands among the 25 most valuable by a second baseman, Utley finished 14th in NL MVP voting. He never placed higher than seventh in any of the years he received votes. Utley never won a Gold Glove, either. In that aforementioned 2008 season during which he led all big league defenders with 3.5 dWAR and 31 defensive runs saved, the Reds' Brandon Phillips received the award over him. Shifting to baseball's notoriously vague "character clause," an assessment of Utley's career is simply incomplete without mentioning the infamous slide in Game 2 of the 2015 NLDS that took out Mets shortstop Ruben Tejada. The shortstop suffered a fractured fibula as a result. Utley would in turn be suspended for the following two games of the series, a suspension he appealed and ultimately had dropped the following year. MLB later implemented a rule ahead of the 2016 season outlining that "slides on potential double plays will require runners to make a bona fide attempt to reach and remain on the base." For many, this dirty slide was enough to dub Utley a "bad guy" who doesn't represent the principles of the Hall of Fame. I deem it more as a blip on the résumé of a sterling career from an individual who's otherwise beloved across the sport. Total Body of Work For his career, Utley amassed 64.5 rWAR/61.6 fWAR. Per Baseball-Reference, this puts him 12th all-time among second basemen. There are 10 second basemen below him who are in the Hall of Fame. By dWAR (defensive wins above replacement), Utley's 17.3 has him 11th at the position. When referring back to DRS, a metric introduced in 2003, only Mark Ellis has saved more runs at the position than Utley's 123. It's not all that dissimilar from Adrián Beltré, who is seen as a first-ballot lock thanks in part to his incredible glovework at third base. Another name on the ballot whose case bares a resemblance to Utley's, Andruw Jones, has a reputation built on a combination of offense (111 OPS+ to Utley's 117), speed (152 SB to Utley's 154), and defense (24.4 to 17.3 dWAR). Referring back to another old-school metric, RBI, we see that Utley is one of just eight 2B with at least four seasons of 100 or more runs driven in. Five of those eight players are in the Hall, the exceptions being Jeff Kent and Robinson Canó (likely be held out due to multiple failed PED tests). We talked earlier about Utley's efficiencies as a base-stealer. His 87.5% success rate is the best all-time among hitters with at least 175 stolen base attempts, having stolen 154 bases to just 22 caught stealings. And if all of this hasn't proved convincing enough yet, I'll leave you with this. Can you name the seven players in Major League history with at least 250 home runs, 100 fielding runs, and 150 steals? Answer: Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, Mike Schmidt, Carl Yastrzemski, Mookie Betts, Andruw Jones, and, yep, you guessed it, Chase Utley. Photo by Jason Arnold/Getty Images

This Miami Marlins offseason began with a jolt when GM Kim Ng exited the organization, replaced by longtime Tampa Bay Rays executive Peter Bendix. Outside of that, it's frankly been a boring ride—aside from arranging a trade with his former co-workers and inking a few minor league deals, Bendix is moving slowly. The Marlins still have work to do if they want to prove 2023 wasn't merely an aberration because their existing roster simply isn't going to cut it. We headed into this offseason understanding that the Marlins will not pony up the record-breaking dollars required to sign the likes of baseball's unicorn, Shohei Ohtani, or Japan's latest pitching sensation, Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Even the free agent tiers directly below them are too inefficient for this club to seriously bid on. Keeping it realistic, here are a handful of hypothetical signings and trade acquisitions that you may have been overlooking. SP José Quintana (New York Mets)Notable 2023 Statistics (age-34 season): 3.57 ERA (118 ERA+), 3.52 FIP, 0.6 HR/9, 1.3 rWAR Kicking off this thought experiment with a potential trade, the Marlins would have to look within their division to make this one work, but there are many reasons why José Quintana may be worth the time invested. After a period in the mid-2010's where he was among the more unheralded pitchers in the sport, Quintana experienced a three-year lull from 2019-21 that had many questioning how much longer he'd continue to pitch big league innings. His 5.13 ERA ranked 9th-worst among the 100 pitchers to throw at least 240 innings in that span. He cycled through three different uniforms during those three seasons. A glimmer of hope shining through an otherwise bad ERA was the accompanying 3.99 FIP, a mark that indicated him being closer to the middle of the pack in terms of quality. Quintana turned the corner in 2022 with 165-plus innings of a career-best 2.93 ERA and 137 ERA+ between Pittsburgh and St. Louis. The Mets committed two years to him before the 2023 season. A stress fracture in his rib cage limited him to just 13 starts and 75 ⅔ innings in 2023, but when healthy, Quintana proved his 2022 renaissance wasn't merely a flash in the pan. Continuing with his trend of suppressing the long ball, Quintana surrendered just five home runs in his 75-plus innings, good enough for a HR/9 of 0.6. In fact, no pitcher among the 85 to throw at least 240 innings since the start of 2022 has limited the long ball to the degree of Quintana. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/29/51ca843f-0338e533-cbbcaf13-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Quintana's $13M salary for 2024 is right in line with the likes of recently signed starters Kenta Maeda (2/$24M), Kyle Gibson (1/$10M) and Lance Lynn (1/$12M). The Marlins shouldn't have an issue coming up with the modest trade capital needed to swing a deal—the question is whether the Mets are willing to part with him given their own rotation depth concerns. Quintana's presence wouldn't completely replace that of the injured Sandy Alcantara, but it could very well fill a majority of the void. RP Robert Stephenson (Free Agent) Notable 2023 Statistics (age-30 season): 5.2 H/9, 0.879 WHIP, 13.2 K/9 All roads seem to have led Robert Stephenson to the role of reliever. His brief 22-start tenure as a starting pitcher with the Reds between 2016-18 was anything but remarkable. In 105 ⅔ innings, Stephenson pitched to a 4.77 ERA and lousy 1.61 WHIP. Things would start to look up in 2019 when he struck out 81 over 64 ⅔ frames in his first full-go out of the bullpen, but inconsistencies between 2020-22 undid much of that progress. Things did not start any easier for him in 2023 either, pitching to a 5.14 ERA in 14 innings out of the gate with Pittsburgh. That was before the Rays acquired Stephenson on June 2. From that point onward, Stephenson's 14.09 K/9 ranked fifth-highest amongst all big league relievers, as did his .194 BABIP. Stephenson already lays claim to one of the game's elite cut-fastballs. Whether he sustains this elite level of performance given his somewhat concerning 14.3% HR/FB-rate remains to be seen, but he could make for an uncomfortable at-bat out of the Marlins bullpen in 2024. His dominance against right-handed batters is especially enticing for a relief corps that leaned too heavily on southpaws this season. With MLB Trade Rumors projecting a contract in the ballpark of four years/$36M, Miami ought to be aggressive should they wish to land his services, but hey, maybe the Peter Bendix connection works in their favor here. OF Austin Meadows (Free Agent) Notable 2023 Statistics (age-28 season): 6 G, 21 PA, .238 BA, -0.2 rWAR When Rick Ankiel burst onto the scene as a left-handed pitcher for the St. Louis Cardinals in 1999, scouts and fans alike were drawn to his mid-90's fastball and knee-buckling curveball. Following a disastrous playoff blow-up against the Atlanta Braves in 2000, stardom and all the accompanying glitter began to slip and rust right before Ankiel's eyes, as the anxiety-induced yips almost forced a premature adieu to the game he loved. To a similar, more contemporary case, we have Austin Meadows, whose once-promising career has been burdened by the grips of mental health strife. Meadows posted a 125 OPS+ over 1334 PA for the Rays from 2019-21, receiving top-20 MVP votes in both '19 and '21. In that span, he was one of just 19 players with multiple seasons of at least 59 extra-base hits. The Detroit Tigers got just 42 games and 168 PA out of him over the next two seasons. With such scant volume of playing time to work off of, why and how would Meadows make sense for Miami? Beyond the mere potential feel-good nature of a Meadows re-blossoming, age matters here. Only turning 29 next May 3, this ought to suggest there's still plenty of good baseball left in that bat of his. And when he was on the field for Detroit—though the presence of his power was absent—Meadows' batted ball data wasn't far off from his usual norms. He still walked 9.5-percent of the time in comparison to his 9.2-percent mark from 2018-21, as too did his line-drive (25.2-to-25.6%) and hard-hit rates (42.3-to-41.4%) land within his usual range. Dare we note that there's another Bendix connection here? UTIL Christopher Morel (Chicago Cubs)Notable 2023 Statistics (age-24 season): 26 HR, 50.4 HardHit%, 31% K-rate, -4 Rfield Christopher Morel feels like a Javier Báez-lite at the plate: you get a lot of swing-and-miss, light-tower power, and flare. Morel also provides positional flexibility similar to the ex-Cubs star. The key distinction is that Báez proved an advanced defender at multiple infield positions, while Morel's issue manifests in the fact that he's not actually good anywhere. In parts of 83 games played in the outfield, Morel has worth minus-18 runs via total zone and minus-10 defensive runs saved. Pro-rate this production over a full season and Morel would be among MLB's biggest liabilities there. Morel's 282 innings between shortstop and third base have proven similarly disappointing, boasting minus-4 and minus-1 DRS totals, respectively. The one position anomalous to all of these, second base, is occupied on the Marlins by defending NL batting champion Luis Arraez. That being said, should the Marlins lose out in their bid to re-sign Jorge Soler, Morel could easily slot in at DH and play elsewhere only when his teammates are unavailable to do so. The 24-year-old isn't even arbitration eligible yet and would be under club control through at least 2028. 1B/DH Carlos Santana (Free Agent)Notable 2023 Statistics (age-37 season): 23 HR, 10.5% BB-rate, 16.8% K-rate, 2.7 rWAR It's one thing to be considered a very good player. It's another to be considered both very good and often forgotten. Here's a quick trivia nugget for you; who are the only active players with at least 300 homers, 1,200 walks, and fewer than 1,500 strikeouts? Answer: Carlos Santana...and that's it. Not Hall of Fame-caliber, but that's quite a distinction for the Dominican switch-hitter to hang his hat on. Santana's knack for above-average power, astute plate discipline and lower-than-normal strikeout rates have always made him a fascinating player to watch, despite never being in that upper echelon of marquee names in the sport. Even as his mid-30's have seen his overall offensive numbers succumb to decline (94 Rbat, 94 OPS+ since 2020), Santana has still struck out just 16.5-percent of the time while walking a nearly equal 13.2-percent of his plate appearances. All of this while still posting a respective .161 ISO over that stretch. If the Marlins can't pry Morel from Chicago, Santana could slot right in with Josh Bell to create a formidable 1B/DH duo. Photo by Mike Carlson/MLB Photos

Relive all of the ups and downs of the 2023 Miami Marlins with our Fish On First Season Review, containing detailed articles about a wide variety of players. The FOF staff analyzes the individual impact that each of them had and what it means for their future with the organization. This installment focuses on reliever Steven Okert. 2023 TimelineMarch 22—reported to be dealing with adductor issueMarch 30—placed on 15-day IL with left abductor strainApril 7—commenced rehab assignment at Triple-A JacksonvilleApril 21—activated from 15-day ILJuly 16—served as "opener" in first professional start since 2019Notable 2023 Statistics: 4.45 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 1.4 HR/9, 11.2 K/9 in 58.2 IP (age-31 season) Take a look at Steven Okert's two-year stretch from 2021-2022: 2.89 ERA (145 ERA+), 10.6 K/9 in 87.1 IP. Pretty good on the surface, right? But what was brewing beneath the surface during that period? A less convincing 4.35 FIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 1.2 HR/9. Okert's initial success on the heels of signing a minor league deal with the Marlins seemed somewhat fluky. His luck dried up during the second half of 2023. This isn't to say that Okert's most recent season was all bad. In some respects, the baseball gods overcorrected. He posted a career-best 11.2 K/9 while shouldering the largest workload of his big league career (58.2 IP). He lowered his BB/9 to a more respectable 3.7 figure. For the first time since 2017, his ERA (4.45) was higher than his FIP (4.09). Okert already had some trouble preventing the long ball. Among the 147 relievers to throw at least 85 innings between 2021-22, his 1.2 HR/9 ranked 114th. The difference in 2023 was he allowed them at inconvenient times. Five of the nine came with runners on base and three directly gave opponents the lead. Okert's frisbee-slider remained effective (plus-7 run value, 34 K%). However, that was entirely negated by the vulnerability of his four-seam fastball (minus-8 RV). Opponents essentially turned into 2023 Jake Burger against Okert's fastball, hitting .289 with a .518 SLG in the 96 plate appearances ending on that pitch. Most of Okert's struggles occurred following the All-Star break. The majority of his appearances down the stretch came in the sixth inning or earlier as Skip Schumaker shied away from giving him too much influence on a game's outcome. Waiver claim Matt Moore vaulted past him in the lefty reliever pecking order during the season's closing weeks. Okert made his first-ever postseason appearance in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series (1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K). Looking AheadOkert is set for arbitration for the first time ahead of the 2024 season. MLB Trade Rumors estimates that his pay will increase to approximately $1.2M if tendered a contract. Even with Moore becoming a free agent, the Marlins are well-stocked with left-handed bullpen options between Okert, Tanner Scott, Andrew Nardi, and A.J. Puk. That's without mentioning Trevor Rogers or Ryan Weathers, who theoretically could transition to the 'pen if unable to win starting rotation spots. Important to note, Okert is out of minor league options. It's up to Peter Bendix and his front office to render a verdict on whether he's a true asset to the club moving forward or a superfluous depth arm to be used as a trade chip. Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images