Are the Marlins focusing on the wrong DH?

After coming out of the gate slow in his first year with the Marlins in 2022, Jorge Soler returned to form in 2023. He slugged 36 home runs en route to his first career All-Star selection, leading Miami to their first full-season playoff berth since 2003. As was to be expected, Soler opted out of the final season of his three-year, $36M contract with his sights set on another payday a la free agency.

Unquestionably, the 2024 Marlins lineup would look better with Soler than without him, but should he really be their primary DH target this offseason?

I'd posit that Teoscar Hernández is the more attractive option for said role, and there are several good reasons as to why.

Consider the three-year sample encompassing the 2021 through 2023 seasons:

The first number of note, Hernández's 8.6 WAR in this period dwarfs Soler's 2.1. The latter took 320 fewer plate appearances from 2021-2023, but that gap in value largely comes from quality of performance. For context, only one player in MLB history has managed to accrue at least 6 WAR—the approximate gap between Hernández and Soler—in a season of fewer than 320 plate appearances. His name was Josh Gibson, the legendary Negro Leagues catcher who accounted for 6.3 wins across just 302 tracked plate appearances for the 1943 Homestead Grays.

Soler had stretches of excellence. He posted an .882 OPS with Atlanta following a 2021 trade deadline deal and earned MVP honors in the ensuing World Series. This past year, he erupted for double-digit home runs in the months of May and August. Outside of that, though, he was unremarkable.

As for Hernández, he made his first—and to this point, only—All-Star team in 2021, representing the Blue Jays after hitting .296/.346/.524 with 32 HR, 116 RBI, and even swiping a career-best 12 bases. Hernández's 131 OPS+ ranked 10th among 42 outfielders that season who qualified for the batting title.

After posting a similarly impressive 2022 (finishing 28-percent better than the league average hitter), Toronto flipped Hernández to the Mariners in a swap that included reliever Erik Swanson. Even in a down 2023, he had a 106 OPS+ in 160 games during his age-30 season.

Beyond the bat, Hernández displays a stronger albeit still below-average defensive profile. Per Baseball-Reference, he has accounted for negative-3 runs from fielding since 2021, while Soler has been worth negative-17. Hernández logged more than twice as many defensive innings over that span. Soler started only 31 games in the outfield in 2023, in part to cede opportunities to superior defenders and also to manage his recurring back issues.

Being passable with the glove is meaningful for the Marlins. Their projected starting left fielder, Bryan De La Cruz, was roughly replacement level last year and their projected starting right fielder, Jesús Sánchez, struggles against lefty pitching. There figure to be at-bats available at both outfield corners.

One more factor to consider when choosing between these two bats is durability. Between 2021-2023, Hernández appeared in 484 of his team's 536 games (89.7%); Soler managed to see playing time in just 358 games in this span (74%). Wouldn't you rather take the player with superior recent production (121 OPS+ to 109 OPS+) when there's also more certainty that said player will be available on the field?

Despite Soler's shortcomings, he'd still provide a considerable positive impact while likely being the cheaper option of the two. The Marlins are familiar with him on a personal level and know he won't be intimidated by playing home games in a ballpark that notoriously suppresses power-hitting.

As of Wednesday morning, the Marlins are one of five MLB teams who haven't inked a major league free agent yet. Fans are understandably angsty. That sentiment would instantly change if they did what it takes to secure the services of Hernández or Soler.

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