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Everything posted by Louis Addeo-Weiss
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As the fans of Philadelphia awaited the start of yet another exciting sport's season, with their Eagles set for a 4:25 ET kickoff, Ranger Suarez gave them another reminder to keep tabs on the Phillies down the stretch and their quest to get back to the World Series. In the words of Yogi Berra and particularly applicable to the 2023 Marlins, "it ain't over 'til it's over." Sunday's 5-4 come-from-behind victory against the Phillies was yet another reminder of their resiliency. With the win, Miami now improves to 74-69, including an MLB-best 30-12 in one-run games. "Ballsy, gutsy, all of those types of words and adjectives," said Skip Schumaker when reflecting on Sunday's win. Three days after Ryan Pepiot vied for a bid at perfection, Suarez kept a zero in the Marlins hit column entering the 7th inning, authoring a career-high 10 strikeouts against 3 walks in the process. Run support would come quickly for Suarez, as the Phillies needed just two pitches to tag a two-spot on opener Steven Okert. Kyle Schwarber would send Okert's first offering into center field for a base hit before Trea Turner continued his torrid run of hitting with a two-run homer into the Philadelphia bullpen. The aforementioned Schwarber, who, himself, homered in Saturday's Phillies victory, made it two in two days when he sent his 43rd long ball of the season deep into the right field seats of Citizens Bank Park. In the top of the seventh, a Jake Burger flyout brought Suarez within 8 outs of the no-hitter. But then, Bryan De La Cruz worked a 4-pitch walk before recently-recalled Dane Myers took advantage of a Suarez changeup that caught just enough of the plate to be hit over the head of center fielder Brandon Marsh for Miami's first hit. One batter later, Yuli Gurriel would double home a pair to cut the Philadelphia lead to 1. Dating back to August 14, Gurriel had just one extra-base hit in last 30 plate appearances prior to that hit. From one struggling Marlin to another, Nick Fortes, himself without a hit in September, singled home Gurriel to tie the score at 3-3. One inning later, Miami would pull ahead when De La Cruz's 19th HR of the season give the Fish their fourth and fifth runs of the afternoon. With two hits Sunday, De La Cruz now owns an .867 OPS in nine September contests. But the Phillies are not affectionately referred to as the "Fightin' Phils" without reason. Come the bottom of the 8th, a rare Andrew Nardi booboo-outing saw him issue a pair of walks and a run-scoring double to Nick Castellanos to cut the Marlins lead down to 1. Schumaker would then turn to the hot hand, closer Tanner Scott, who immediately made quick work of Edmundo Sosa, striking him out on three pitches. As he did to end the ballgame Friday, Scott set Kyle Schwarber down on strikes, ending the 8th inning with Miami clinging to a one-run lead. But while he ended the bottom of the 8th with a flourish, Scott immediately ran into trouble entering the bottom of the 9th, as a Trea Turner hit-by-pitch and walk to Bryce Harper gave the Phillies first and second, no outs. Alec Bohm would ground into 6-4-3 double play to push Turner to third before Bryson Stott went down on strikes to lock down the Miami win. Of Note Sunday saw Suarez become just the fourth starting pitcher this season to strike out 10 or more Marlins, joining Spencer Strider, George Kirby and Shohei Ohtani. Scott's strikeout of Schwarber to end the 8th set a new single-season record for strikeouts by a Marlins left-handed reliever at 91, breaking his previous record of 90, set back in 2022. Looking Ahead From one playoff hopeful club to another, the Marlins will head from Philadelphia to Milwaukee as they get to set to commence a four-game series against the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers. Game 1 starter Jesús Luzardo will look to keep the good times rolling. In his last three outings dating back to August 30, Luzardo has allowed just 2 runs over his last 18 innings pitched. Monday's first pitch is slated for 7:40 EST from American Family Field. Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images
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Sandy Alcantara may be the only pitcher in modern baseball who could allow 4-runs, 9-hits, and still easily give you 8 innings in under 100 pitches. Well, 94 pitches later, he did just that, and in a game that featured 5 total errors—two of which were his own doing—it was enough. The Marlins wrapped up a sweep of the Nationals to collect their first 70-win season since 2017. "Our pitching is why we won these four games this weekend," noted manager Skip Schumaker. It would take all of three pitches to get the Miami bats going, as Luis Arraez sent a Josiah Gray fastball into the Washington bullpen to give the Marlins a quick 1-0 lead. Miami coaxed a 32-pitch inning out of Gray, thanks in large part to their three walks in the opening frame that produced an additional two runs. The Marlins plated first-inning runs in each of the four games of this series. And with their ace on the mound, the Marlins had to feel pretty good about their chances. Alas, Washington would quickly respond in the bottom half when Lane Thomas hit his 6th home run against Miami this season. The two pitchers would get into a grove soon after, with Gray working three ensuing scoreless innings before departing, while Alcantara resorting to his efficient ways, completed the first four innings of work on just 43 pitches. As has been the case for him all season, though, Alcantara's undoing came in a single inning. Today's antagonist, the bottom of 5th, saw Alcantara not only cough up the lead, but trade it with Washington. Leadoff hitter Ildemaro Vargas would reach at the hands of Alcantara's first of two errors on the day before Dominic Smith—who homered in Saturday's 11-5 Washington loss—doubled to score Vargas to make it a 3-2 ballgame. The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner's 5 errors are the most by any pitcher in 2023. Following a Jacob Young single to tie the score at 3, re-enter Lane Thomas, who would single home Young to put the Nationals ahead. The Marlins would quickly fire back in the top of the 6th when Joey Wendle showed the aforementioned Vargas what the wrong side of an error looks like after a ground ball went under the third baseman's legs. Though the Nationals would threaten in the bottom half following an errant throw on a pickoff attempt by Alcantara, the Marlins ace would work through this and additional trouble in the 7th en route to completing 8 innings for the sixth time this season. Following singles from Arraez and Jake Burger, a Jazz Chisholm Jr. ground ball would be thrown away by CJ Abrams, allowing Arraez to score the go-ahead run. Chisholm would add his 18th stolen base of the season to set up a Bryan De La Cruz run-scoring single to give Miami some needed 9th inning insurance. Of Note With the win, the Fish conclude the year 11-2 against their NL East rivals. Since the start of 2022, Miami is a combined 26-6 against the Washington. Following the win, Miami sat half a game out of an NL Wild Card spot.Sunday marked Sandy Alcantara's 30th career outing of eight-plus innings pitched, easily the most of any pitcher since he joined the Marlins rotation in 2018. Thomas' 6 home runs against the Marlins in 2023 make him just the second player in Expos/Nationals history with 6 or more long balls against Miami in a single season. Only Bryce Harper, who hit 7 in his first NL MVP year in 2015, hit more. September sequel? Following a September 2022 that saw him hit .375 with an 1.142 OPS, Bryan De La Cruz has begun September 2023 with 6 hits in the month's first 3 games. Looking Ahead Miami will have the day off from play Monday as they head home to commence their toughest slate of games this season. The club will resume play Tuesday when they welcome the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers for a three-game series. Jesús Luzardo (9-8, 3.62 ERA) will take the ball for Miami in the series opener. In 3 career appearances against L.A., the hard-throwing lefty owns a 3.68 ERA. Future Hall of Famer and NL Cy Young candidate Clayton Kershaw (12-4, 2.48 ERA) is slated to take the ball for the Dodgers. In 14 career outings against Miami, the three-time Cy Young Award winner has a 2.68 ERA, while limiting hitters to a .193 batting average against. Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
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When the Marlins went into the All-Star break on July 9th, they were flying (or swimming) higher than they had in a good while. At 53-39, the team sat firmly in 2nd place in the NL East while maintaining the top NL Wild Card spot. In the 38 games that followed, Miami sank to what felt like 20,000 leagues under the sea, going on a dismal 12-26 run entering play Sunday, regressing to that of a .500 team at 65-65. When the club then has to use a bullpen game in their attempts to remain above .500, it truly shows a team currently running on fumes. Fortunately, this edition of the Marlins bullpen game went in their favor, with Miami taking the series finale against the recently fun-to-watch Nationals, 2-1, keeping the team a game above-.500 at 66-65. Opener JT Chargois would start the contest for the Fish, working a scoreless 1st before handing the ball off to Bryan Hoeing. Having made 7 starts previously this season, Hoeing proved a worthy option to give the Marlins much-needed length, and he did just that, striking out 5 in 4 innings of 1-run ball. The right-hander would start the 6th inning before exiting after a Joey Meneses come backer hit off his left foot, though manager Skip Schumaker confirmed Steven Okert was set to face to Smith for the left-on-left matchup. "It was huge...To have Hoeing go four was huge. It really set us up," noted Schumaker. Hoeing's only real adversity came in a top of 3rd that saw the Nationals have runners on 2nd and 3rd with no outs. For his and Miami's sake, the damage would be limited to Washington's one and only run coming on a Dominic Smith RBI groundout. The Nationals lead would be short-lived, however, as Jorge Soler launched his 35th home run into the Auto Nation Alley section of loanDepot Park to put Miami ahead 2-1. It was the 19th of his long balls that have given the Marlins a lead. Following the Soler blast, a pitcher's duel it would be. Miami would go just 2-for-19 the rest of the way, while the Nats would muster a mere 3 hits in their last 20 at-bats. Making for the only real blemish on his otherwise strong outing, Washington's Trevor Williams worked 7-innings of 5-hit ball, striking out 5. A.J. Puk would work around a 1st and 2nd two-out jam in the 7th before Andrew Nardi authored a perfect 8th. Since last blowing the save that ultimately cost him his closer's role on July 30, Puk has quietly been among the club's more consistent relievers, allowing just 1 run over 9.2 innings. Confirming speculation that arose following the news that recently acquired David Robertson was out as closer, left-hander Tanner Scott (inarguably Miami's best reliever all season) was tasked with the final three outs. And as has been the case in the second half, things would be anything but easy. After retiring pinch-hitter Alex Call to begin the frame, back-to-back singles from Keibert Ruiz and Ildemaro Vargas put the Nationals in position to force a bottom of the 9th. Jacob Young, up to bat in his first big league start, rolled over to third base on a Scott slider to force a 5-4-3 double play to seal the win for Miami. Of Note Jorge Soler's 35th home run Sunday made for just the 6th time in franchise history that a player had crossed that threshold in a single-season, joining Gary Sheffield (42 in 1996), Marcell Ozuna (37 in 2017), and Giancarlo Stanton, who did it three times from 2012-17. At 66-65, the 2023 Marlins are just the 14th team since 1901 to be above .500 through their first 131 games while posting a run differential of at least -40. Miami will enter play Tuesday having been outscored 526-574 (-48).Looking Ahead Following Monday's scheduled off-day, the Marlins will welcome the Tampa Bay Rays to Miami for a brief two-game set. Due to a recent shuffling of the rotation, Sandy Alcantara (6-11, 4.16 ERA) will face the Rays for the first time since throwing a complete game against them on July 26. That was originally set to be Jesús Luzardo's turn in the rotation, but he'll go Wednesday instead. Tampa Bay will counter Alcantara with Aaron Civale (6-3, 2.59 ERA) in what will be his first career appearance against Miami. First pitch from loanDepot Park is slated for 6:40 EST. Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images
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Fish pull off improbable 9th inning comeback to best the Yanks and take the series.In Sunday's series finale, the New York Yankees took a commanding 7-3 lead into the bottom of the 9th, three outs away from securing a series win in Miami. Then, they blew it. For the first eight innings, it was all Bombers. Gerrit Cole authored another chapter of a season that has seen him emerge as the favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K's. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/13/665f72b9-3e4edc26-938eea34-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Anthony Volpe continued his weekend torching of the Marlins, adding his 16th home run in what has already-been an impressive rookie campaign. Gleyber Torres reached base three more times and tied a career-high with a three stolen base afternoon. Even catcher Ben Rortvedt—hitting .107 entering play—got in on the action with his first long ball of the year. For Miami, Eury Pérez lasted just 4 innings in his second start since returning from minors, allowing 4 runs, and walking 2. In those two starts, Pérez has been tagged for a total of 8 runs in just 8.2 innings. Following him, Huascar Brazoban provided what could best be described as "ugly bulk," allowing 3 runs (all earned) over 2.2 innings, walking 4 in the process. The Yankees entered the final half inning with a 99-percent chance to win the game, per Baseball Savant. Here are the series of events, in order, that followed. Yuli Gurriel hits a lead off double—96% win probability, NYYJon Berti strikes out swinging—98% win probability, NYYNick Fortes singles to SS—96% win probability, NYYJazz Chisholm Jr. walks, Gurriel to 3rd, Fortes to 2nd—90% win probability, NYYJosh Bell reaches on a throwing error by pitcher Clay Holmes; Gurriel, Fortes score; 7-5 New York—80% win probability, NYYLuis Arraez triples to RF. Chisholm, Bell score. 7-7 tie—83% win probability, MIABryan De La Cruz walks—82% win probability, MIAJake Burger singles to CF. Arraez scores. Marlins win, 8-7."I wish we wouldn't have to wait for the 9th inning everytime, but a win's a win," said a smiling Skip Schumaker. The Marlins had done as they seemingly have all year long. With their backs against the wall, they rose to the opportunity, and came out on top. And for the both clubs, as trite as it may sound to those clinical readers of game recaps, if there was any game that serves as a team's season in a microcosm, this was certainly it. Of Note Marlins catchers allowed 5 stolen bases in a game for the eighteenth time in franchise history. This represents just their fourth win and first since 2005 in such contests.Burger's 9th inning hit made for the third walk-off hit of his career. In 11 games with Miami, he has hit a collective .311/.391/.488. Luis Arraez collected his 17th 3-hit game of the season, tied with Ronald Acūna Jr. for the most in the Majors. Looking Ahead The Marlins will have their work cutout for them, as they'll welcome the defending World Champion Houston Astros to loanDepot Park to commence a three-game series. Monday's series opener will see a battle of the southpaws. Braxton Garrett (6-3, 4.08 ERA) will square off against Framber Valdez (9-7, 3.30 ERA). First pitch is slated for 6:40 EST. Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images
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Sandy labors, struggles; Miami bats go M.I.A. in series finale.The Miami Marlins are in trouble. With Sunday's 6-0 loss at the hands of the Texas Rangers, who swept the three-game weekend set, Miami fell to 58-55, losing 15 of their last 20 games. After opening the weekend with the absence of quality pitching, the Marlins had to feel pretty good considering who they were handing the ball to. Sandy Alcantara entered with a 0.53 ERA in the two starts preceding Sunday's against the Rangers. Fortune did not favor him in this instance, though. Alcantara was not helped by his defense, particularly the oft-sure-handed Jon Berti, who made a pair of errors at shortstop. Alcantara's 6 innings of work yielded 5 Texas runs (4 earned), raising his season ERA to 4.28. Nathaniel Lowe, Marcus Semien and Ezequiel Duran each tagged the reigning NL Cy Young award winner for home runs in the defeat. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/06/8c2d6ceb-18a2e7a5-3f390380-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Sunday also marked the third time this season where Alcantara had allowed 5 runs and struck out at least 7 without walking a batter. That ties a modern-era record for a single season. It's encouraging that he's been attacking the strike zone so consistently, but this approach is subjecting him to a lot of hard contact. Opposing him, Andrew Heaney, who the Marlins originally drafted 9th overall back in 2012, would be making his first start against the club that originally made him into a big leaguer. The Fish would muster just 4 hits and 2 walks, as Heaney shut Miami out over 5.2 innings of work. Miami's best chance to score came in the top of 6th, where the club had runners on first and second, no outs before a Jorge Soler line drive off the glove of third baseman Josh Jung turned into a 5-4 double play, thwarting a potential rally. Exiting the game with what was immediately deemed a left thumb contusion, x-rays later revealed a fracture for the aforementioned-Jung. Miami bats went just 3-for-25 with runners in scoring position in the weekend series. Recalled to replace Ryan Weathers on the roster, Geoff Hartlieb made his Marlins debut in the 8th inning, his first big league outing since 2021. He would be rudely greeted by Adolis García, who launched a first-pitch, leadoff home run. It was the fourth long ball of the day and tenth in the series for Texas. Of Note The Marlins have now been shut out 8 times this season. Sunday marked just the fifth time in Sandy Alcantara's career where he has allowed 3 home runs in an outing. Sunday also marked only the seventh time, and first since 2019, where the Marlins pitching staff has allowed 3 home runs three consecutive games. Miami is a collective 2-19 in those 21 total games. After sustaining exiting Saturday's 9-8 loss with a right hamstring cramp, Jazz Chisholm Jr. was out of the lineup in the series finale. Chisholm has played in all of 50 games this season, missing time with two separate IL stints. Looking Ahead Miami will continue their road trip Monday when they open up a series against fellow NL playoff hopefuls, the Cincinnati Reds. Eury Pérez will make his much-anticipated return to the big leagues. In 11 starts before being shut down, Pérez posted a miniscule 2.36 ERA. The Reds will counter with rookie Brandon Williamson (3-2, 4.85 ERA). /news/marlins-roster-moves-eury-perez-call-up/First pitch from Great American Ball Park is slated for 6:40 EST. Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images
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Amid the post-All-Star blues, here are some positives we took from the Marlins' month of July.While the first three months of the 2023 regular season were incredibly forgiving to the Miami Marlins, July would largely be anything but. They entered play on July 1 with a 48-35 record, holding a firm two-game lead for the first NL Wild Card. However, the team would succumb to a second-half slump that saw them lose their first 8 games following the All-Star break. When July turned to August, Miami sat at 57-50, still very much in the thick of a playoff push, but more evident were the cracks on what had already been an unlikely early success story. With the overarching theme of July being one of crumbling optimism, there were still individual moments and stretches of play worth mentioning. Here's what went well. Ace Turning the CornerAn anomaly in the Marlins strong first half were the prolonged struggles of staff ace and reigning NL Cy Young award winner Sandy Alcantara. In 16 starts through the end of June, Alcantara posted a 4.82 ERA in those 102.2 innings of work. The underlying metrics—particularly his 3.69 FIP and continued suppression of the long ball (0.7 HR9)—suggest he was due to positively regress, and fortunately, amid a month of collective woes, Alcantara seemed to right the ship. In five July starts, Alcantara posted a 3.31 ERA, right in line with his career 3.29 mark. Oddly enough, his FIP and ERA continued on their dichotomous paths, but in the opposite directions, as his 4.38 FIP suggested luck being on the right side of Sandy, as opponents still managed a .728 OPS in 32.2 innings against the right-hander. In three of those aforementioned five outings, Alcantara allowed 2 or fewer earned runs, the highlight of which being his MLB-best second complete game of the season in a 7-1 win over Tampa Bay on July 26. And if July was only a teaser of things to come, then August may prove to be even better given the ace opened the year's eighth month with 8 scoreless innings against the division-rival Phillies. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/01/758722f0-e62180fc-fc0c260b-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4If this is the Alcantara Miami gets down the stretch, all that can be said is "watch out rest of the league." Late-inning reinforcementsThe Marlins front office leapt into action a week prior to the MLB trade deadline to shore up their slumping bullpen. Andrew Nardi missed virtually all of July with a triceps injury, and A.J. Puk turned every opposing hitter into Shohei Ohtani (1.078 OPS against in July). The club took note of the dilemma and added two arms to help stabilize the later innings. July 26 saw the a straight swap of Dylan Floro for Jorge López, with the former headed to Minnesota. López, while not off to the best start in the Twin Cities in 2023—posting a 5.09 ERA, 5.94 FIP, and a substandard 6.9 K/9—gives Miami a righty arm with tantalizing potential and an extra year of club control, as López will not hit free agency until after the 2024 season. Two days later, and Miami was back in action on the trade front, this time making an intradivisional deal with the New York Mets for longtime late-inning stalwart David Robertson. Immediate returns on the two proved successful, with López authoring two scoreless outings and Robertson collecting the save in the July 30 series finale against Detroit. While the old adage of "you never know" serves most relevant when discussing relievers in small samples, Robertson's past decade-and-a-half of high-level pitching in the later innings along with López being an All-Star as recently as last season justified these expenditures. Offensively, the end of July would also mark the return of two key contributors: outfielders Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Avisaíl García. Berti BopsAnything you get out of Jon Berti's bat is a bonus considering the value he consistently provides with his defensive versatility paired with the fact that he plays just about each of these positions at an above-average level (positive total zone runs at 3 positions, 93rd percentile OAA). Not only did the reigning MLB stolen base leader hit in July, but he did so with such proficiency that the Marlins could seldom go a game without starting him, as evidenced by a .383/.420/.511/.931 slash line in 47 plate appearances, good enough for a 154 wRC+. While he is walking much less than in previous years (his walk rate currently ranking in the 17th percentile), Berti has made up for it in 2023 by swinging at the appropriate pitches (chase rate in the 91st percentile), ones that he knows he can make solid contact against. Think of Berti as if Alfredo Amezaga were actually a competent Major League hitter.
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Clutch hits from García, Cooper, and Hampson give Miami huge come-from-behind win to take series.2023 has been an emotional rollercoaster for Marlins fans, with their 8-6 victory Sunday not straying from that theme. Playing in Miami for the final time in his accolade-filled career, Miguel Cabrera gave the fans that embraced him for the first five seasons of his career one final reminder of why he will be a sure-fire Hall of Famer when he becomes eligible. With two outs in the bottom of the third, and with the Tigers having already plated two runs in the inning, Cabrera capitalized on a hanging slider from fellow Venezuelan Jesús Luzardo for a two-run double. The Tigers would exit the inning with a commanding 4-0 lead. The aforementioned Luzardo would fail to make it through the fifth, lasting just 4 2/3 innings, and coughing up 7 hits and 3 walks. Tigers starter Tarik Skubal made quick work of the Fish early, facing the minimum through the first 4 innings. Miami would, however, storm back in the bottom half of the fifth with a four-run rally kickstarted by recently returned Avisaíl García. His first triple since September 5, 2019 was the first of five straight Marlin hits. The coup de grâce of them all, a Garret Hampson two-run double, tied the score at 4-4. That short-lived tie would soon become a 1-run Marlins lead thanks a strange string of events. After reaching on an error from newly inserted third baseman Zack McKinstry, Jon Berti, having just stolen second base on a ball that got away from catcher Jake Rogers, made for third before getting caught in a rundown. Berti would have easily been tagged out were it not for second baseman Zack Short running into the Marlins shortstop, triggering a defensive interference that gifted Berti third base. Two pitches later, again struck Avisaíl García, this time by way of an RBI single. But, in keeping with the back-and-forth series of events this game had already gifted the 18,207 fans in attendance, the Tigers would regain the lead in the 7th. Facing a struggling A.J. Puk, Kerry Carpenter laced a single to right, scoring two to make it a 6-5 Detroit lead. For Puk, now with 6 blown saves this season, his July ERA now sits at 11.42 across 8 2/3 innings pitched. "I think he's going to be fine, but we do have to get him right, because we're really good when he's right," noted Schumaker. A tandem of Tanner Scott and the recently acquired Jorge López and David Robertson would shut the Detroit bats down from that point forward, authoring 2 2/3 perfect frames the rest of the way. Scott, who suffered a mild calf strain during Friday's appearance, evidently will not require an injured list stint. In the midst of the bullpen finding its form came arguably one Garrett Cooper's biggest swings in his parts of six seasons as a Marlin. Sitting 1-2 against reliever Tyler Holton, Cooper hit a hanging curveball just far enough to clear the left-center wall for his thirteenth home run of the season. Miami 7, Detroit 6. One inning later and looking for some insurance, Jean Segura did just that, sending his third home run of the year into the ivy in center field, setting the scene for David Robertson's inaugural appearance as a Marlin. Among the more consistent relievers across Major League history—posting a 2.83 ERA in 784 1/3 IP over parts of 15 seasons—Robertson showed exactly why he was among the most coveted relievers ahead of the August 1 deadline, setting down the Tigers in order. The well-traveled right-hander punctuated his Marlins debut with a strikeout of Akil Badoo. Of Note Before his 7th-inning home run, Cooper owned a career .365 OPS in 1-2 counts, the worst such-mark for any count in his career.Sunday marked the 12th time in his career and first time this season that Garrett Hampson collected at least 3 hits.Looking Ahead Following Detroit, the Marlins will immediately have their work cutout for them, as they'll welcome the Phillies for a four-game set. Miami will turn to Edward Cabrera (5-6, 4.74 ERA) in Monday's series opener. In what has been a bit of a topsy-turvy season for Cabrera, his lone start against Philadelphia this year proved among his better outings, allowing just 2 runs over 5 innings on April 12. First pitch from loanDepot Park is slated for 6:40 EST.
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Dylan Floro's Not Nice, Very Weird, Super Unlucky 2023
Louis Addeo-Weiss posted an article in Marlins
Floro's 2023 has been ugly on the surface, but underneath the hood, advanced metrics illuminate that his impressive skill set is still intact. "He's up all night givin' runs I'm up all night and I'm bummed He's up all night, no fun I'm up all night like he's unlucky" In an amalgamation of music and baseball, I've inserted Miami Marlins reliever Dylan Floro into a melancholy parody of Daft Punk's "Get Lucky." Floro hasn't exactly been a valuable contributor for the 2023 ballclub, especially not recently, but how much of that is actually his own doing? Floro enters Wednesday with an uncharacteristic 4.54 ERA and 96 ERA+, on pace to be the worst marks of his career for any season in which he's received more than a cup of coffee in the majors. Likewise, he's yielding more hits (10.9 H/9) and total baserunners (1.49 WHIP) than we have grown accustomed to. And yet, Floro's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is firmly under 3? Hey, that's encouraging! The veteran right-hander is preventing homers (0.5 HR/9) with exactly the same proficiency as he did from 2021-2022. A walk rate in the 78th percentile among MLB pitchers? An xSLG in the 85th? A barrel rate in the 96th?!? I think we're onto something. Dylan Floro's third season in Miami is the not only the most unlucky of his career, but it may be the most unlucky campaign for any Marlins reliever...ever. This has been such a stark departure from the first two seasons of the Floro-Marlins marriage. Among relievers with at least 100 IP between 2021 and 2022, Floro's 2.91 ERA ranked 22nd, beating out the likes of Josh Hader (3.06) and Tyler Matzek (2.95). His Dolly the sheep-esque 2.96 FIP placed him 16th of the 106 qualifiers. For better or worse (but mostly better), Floro's results matched his underlying performance. Even in his first 9 appearances of 2023, opposing offenses failed to register a run—earned or unearned—on the ledger of the man affectionately referred to as "Flo." However, since being touched up by Atlanta for 3 runs on April 26, the narrative has taken a strange turn. We've seldom seen a season like Floro's in Marlins history or in MLB history altogether. Since the franchise's inception in 1993, there have been 187 individual reliever seasons of at least 35 innings pitched in Marlins history. If we were to sort all of them by ERA-to-FIP gap, the largest underachiever is none other than Floro (1.76). In an ERA-only context, that's the difference between 2023 Jakob Junis (4.55) and Floro's terrific teammate, 2023 Tanner Scott (2.81). Dating back to 1871—the first year in which we have even the scantest bit of statistical data for major league players—only 19 primary relievers with a comparable workload to Floro have finished with an ERA north of 4.50 despite a FIP south of 3.00. Circling back to that April 26 inflection point, Floro has pitched to a 6.14 ERA in 29.1 IP over that span, with opposing offenses doing their Ty Cobb impersonation, hitting .359 with a .463 BABIP. Of the 203 relievers who threw at least 20 innings since, Floro's ERA ranks 189th. Let's hold our noses and relive the aforementioned Atlanta game because it best exemplifies the limitations of a pitcher's influence on a game. Entering in the bottom of the 8th with Miami clinging to a 4-2 lead, Floro would immediately be greeted with a solo home run off the bat of Matt Olson. That long ball registered at just 91.5 miles-per-hour off the bat, and with an xBA of .060. Only 6 home runs across Major League Baseball all season were hit with a lower xBA than Olson's. It was mere feet away from settling into the glove of Jesús Sánchez for an out. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-04/26/c8e110d4-5d24af7e-71f92292-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Following Olson's anomalous dinger, Floro induced an Austin Riley ground out. Amusingly, it had an xBA more than .100 points higher than the homer (.170). He would soon be followed by a 67.8 mph single off the bat of Sean Murphy. If you thought an .060 xBA was low, then Murphy had his "hold my beer" moment when his hit registered an xBA of merely .050. Atlanta wasn't done yet, though, as Eddie Rosario's 84 mph triple (.110 xBA) brought home Murphy for the Braves' second run of the inning, tying the score at 4-4. Next, Vaughn Grissom drove Rosario in with a single that left the bat at just 76.4 mph (.100 xBA) to put the Braves ahead for good. When all was said and done, Floro had allowed 4 hits and 3 runs in just one-third of an inning. The average exit velocity of those 4 hits? 79.9 mph. The average xBA? .080. Floro entered with the objective of getting consistent, weak contact and he executed that plan, yet the baseball gods chose to "reward" him with a blown save and a loss. If you treat this as Floro's mulligan outing for the year and extract it from the record, there wouldn't be much in writing about a pitcher with a 3.89 ERA over a near-40 inning span. It wouldn't be a particularly extreme deviation from his career 3.11 ERA entering this season. Although I have gone to great lengths to defend Floro, it should be noted in conclusion that relievers of the pitch-to-contact breed are resigning themselves to this kind of volatility. Seemingly innocuous balls in play can come with major consequences when clustered together. In the absence of whiffs, Floro can't dictate the outcome of a game like many of his high-leverage brethren. -
After Luzardo donned the cape, Arraez walks off the hero as Miami snaps the 8-game skid. 14 days. 8 straight losses. A total narrative shift. When the Marlins leapt into the All-Star break the morning of July 10, they did so at 53-39 with a 74.5-percent chance of making the playoffs. Fast forward to the morning of July 23, and after dropping their 8th successive game, those once-robust odds had been slashed by a third (48.8%). Luis Arraez's walk-off single in the bottom of the 10th gave the Marlins a 3-2 victory to quell some of the recent unrest. One day after his teammate, the deceptive veteran Johnny Cueto stymied the Colorado bats for 6 1/3 innings—a turn-back-the-clock kind of outing, if you will—Jesús Luzardo gave us a potential glimpse into the future. In the best of his 66 career starts, the hard-throwing southpaw threw a career-high 115 pitches and struck out a career-best 13 hitters. He limited the Rockies to just 1 run over 7 masterful innings. Luzardo's 3.22 ERA now ranks 6th among National League starters. However, things wouldn't come easy for Luzardo near the end. With two outs and runners on 1st and 2nd in the top of the 7th, Skip Schumaker peered his way into Luzardo's peripheral as the Marlins skipper walked towards the mound, Brenton Doyle—already the owner of 1 home run in the game—lurking on-deck. "He wanted it. That was his moment," noted Schumaker. During a bullpen day for manager Bud Black's pitching-starved Rockies club, Miami were held scoreless through the game's first 5 innings thanks to a tandem of Ty Blach and Connor Seabold. Come the bottom of the 6th, though, and with Seabold in his third inning of work, Nick Fortes' first of two hits on the day set the table for Arraez's game-tying RBI double. Three batters later, Yuli Gurriel (who would later be ejected following an exchange with home plate umpire Andy Fletcher), put the Fish ahead with a sacrifice fly to score Arraez. Piggybacking off his starter, Tanner Scott would get help by way of a 4-6-3 double play to cap off a scoreless top of the 8th. The problem: Miami still stood 3 outs away from bidding adieu to the 8-game slide, and with A.J. Puk warming. "A.J., it just feels like, is making one bad pitch an outing," said Schumaker. That "one bad pitch" Sunday, a center-cut 3-2 slider to Randal Grichuk, would find its way onto the left field concourse, tying the score at 2-2. Puk has now blown 5 saves as a Marlin, the majority of those in July. He has pitched to a 9.82 ERA over 8 appearances this month. "Everything else looked crisp. He still has his velo, his slider is real. It's just that one bad pitch that's costing us those leads late in the game," Schumaker stated. He did not indicate what the team's plan of attack will be in the 9th inning moving forward. Following Puk and preceding Arraez, Huascar Brazoban provided a huge boost thanks to 1 1/3 scoreless innings. With the bases loaded in the bottom of the 10th, Colorado deployed a five-man infield to best contain Arraez, but noting a vacancy in right field, he set his coordinates there and emphatically bid a fond farewell to the losing streak. Of Note Luzardo's 13-strikeouts tied Braxton Garrett (6/22/23) for the most by a left-handed pitcher in franchise history.Arraez leads MLB hitters this season with 14 3-hit games. He'll enter play Tuesday hitting .379.Looking Ahead With an off-day scheduled for Monday, Miami will travel along the Gulf Coast to St. Petersburg to begin a 2-game "Citrus Series" against the Tampa Bay Rays. Edward Cabrera (5-5, 4.50 ERA) will start Tuesday's series opener. In his lone career outing against Tampa Bay on 9/24/21, Cabrera lasted just 3 innings, allowing 3 runs and walking 6. Opposing him, Tyler Glasnow (3-3, 3.62 ERA), will make his fourth career start against Miami. First pitch from Tropicana Field is slated for 6:40 EST.
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MIA 2, STL 5: Arenado Continues Frying of Fish as Streak Reaches 5
Louis Addeo-Weiss posted an article in Marlins
A strong return for Edward Cabrera is spoiled by Miami's lack of capitalizing.All of the positive momentum that the Marlins had working for them was largely absent out of the gate following the All-Star break. Losers of their first 4—including a three-game sweep at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles—the Fish seemed as if they were finally regressing to the mean of what their negative run differential suggested. Luckily, the return of Edward Cabrera—making his first start since June 13th—served a much-needed, borderline-heroic sign for Miami. Through 5, shall we say, wildly dominant innings (issuing 4 walks), Cabrera limited the Cardinals—a team hitting .303 in their last 7 games—to just 1 hit. And yet, as the yarn has been spun post-Midsummer Classic, Tuesday's 5-2, 10-inning loss kept the team on a gradual downward trend. Losers of 5 in a row, Miami falls to 53-44, now trailing the Phillies by half a game for 2nd place in the NL East. Clinging to a 1-0 lead in the bottom of the 6th, Cabrera, having thrown just 70 pitches and facing leadoff hitter Brendan Donovan, flipped a slider that caught too much of the plate. Donovan took it 388 feet to right field for his 11th home run of the season to tie the score at 1-1. Though it would be the final dagger in his outing, Cabrera giving the Marlins 5-plus innings of 1-run, 2-hit ball means a lot given the recent demotion of Eury Pérez as the club looks to monitor his innings. "I thought Cabby was great," noted Skip Schumaker. "For him to get 5 (innings) coming off injury was impressive...His command was off a little-bit...but the slider and change up were good, and velocity was holding up. A healthy Cabrera is really what we need." It would only take the Fish another half-inning to regain the lead as Jorge Soler's 53rd RBI of the season would make it a 2-1 Miami lead in the top of the 7th. Important was the manufacturing of the team's second run, as Jon Berti would essentially convert a single into a triple after stealing second and later advancing to third on a wild pitch. The Marlins 11 stolen bases in their past 40 games had been tied with Detroit for the fewest by any club, so this was a refreshing change of tactics. But as does a good game of ping-pong, the Cardinals would hit back, with the Red Bird protagonist Nolan Gorman plating Dylan Carlson to even the score at 2. Soler's aforementioned run production would prove a downslope from there, as Miami failed to score in the 8th, 9th, and top of the 10th. The club's best opportunity to plate the potential go-ahead run came in the top of the 9th when Berti and Joey Wendle singles gave them 1st and 3rd and no outs. Luis Arraez uncharacteristically struck out for a second time in the ballgame. A recent 2-for-14 slump has seen his average dip to .376. Then, a fielder's choice off the bat of Soler would see Berti tagged out at home plate for the second out. With two outs and 3 strikeouts already on the evening, Garrett Cooper flailed at a Jordan Hicks slider a good foot off the plate to secure his "golden sombrero" and thwart Miami's chances of entering the bottom of the 9th up. For the duration of the game, Miami went a collective 1-for-14 with runners in scoring position. After a scoreless bottom half of the 9th from Husacar Brazoban, and after failing to score in the 10th despite an inherited runner, Schumaker turned to closer A.J. Puk to try and send the game to the 11th. While he managed to record two outs, a potential double play ball hit to third baseman Jean Segura could not be turned because of how Arraez was positioned particularly far to the right side of the infield. That set up Nolan Arenado with runners on 1st and 3rd. For Arenado, who racked up 4 RBI in Monday's series opener, his walk-off three-run home run gave St. Louis their 6th win in their last 8 contest, sealing a series victory of a Marlins team that took 3 of 4 in their recent July 3rd-6th series in Miami. In 26 plate appearances against Miami this season, Arenado has hit .409/.423/.909/1.332. Of Note Terrible 2's: The 2023 Marlins became just the 24th team since 1901 to exceed 100 double plays grounded into in a club's first 97 games. The 1990 Boston Red Sox fell victim to 115 twin killings to set the modern record. Luis Arraez snapped a stretch of 120 consecutive games with fewer than 2 strikeouts (dating back to his Minnesota tenure).Looking Ahead The Fish will bid adieu to the Cardinals in 2023 when they conclude the series on Wednesday. Sandy Alcantara (3-8, 4.64 ERA) will face his former team. Alcantara's career 1.24 ERA against St. Louis is his lowest against any opponent (min. 5 GS). First pitch from Busch Stadium is slated for 2:15 EST. -
Cueto shines in return, bats erupt in 9th, but Baltimore holds on for victory.Staring down the barrel of a potential sweep at the hands of a surging Baltimore Orioles club, Sunday would be a bullpen day for the Marlins pitching staff. To their dismay, opener Steven Okert—starting his first game since 2019 when he was pitching in AAA—failed to set the tone in a positive direction, allowing 3 runs before recording an out. The Orioles led the rest of the way, securing a 5-4 victory and a sweep of Miami. Back-to-back doubles off the bats of Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman would plate Baltimore's opening salvo. Three hitter Anthony Santander, doing his best Vladimir Guerrero Sr. impression, deposited a slider a good three inches below the strike zone over the center field wall for a two-run home run. Okert's day would be done after recording all of just 1 out. In relief of Okert, George Soriano would extinguish the 1st-inning flames, only needing 4 pitches to record the final two outs. Though his command would abandon him by way of back-to-back hit by pitches and a walk in the bottom of the 4th, Soriano would give Miami 3-plus innings, allowing 2 unearned runs without surrendering a hit. Of the two runs surrendered at the hands of Soriano, the first (Baltimore's fourth) would come around to score on a James McCann ground ball misplayed by shortstop Joey Wendle. The Orioles would add one more in the 4th when Henderson plated Colton Cowser with a sacrifice fly to right. Undoubtedly the best story for Miami, and maybe the entire weekend, was the triumphant return of Johnny Cueto. Pitching just 1 inning in an April 3 start against the Mets before missing 3 1/2 months with biceps and ankle injuries, Cueto returned to the tune of 3 scoreless innings. Sufficed to say this was more than encouraging considering what Cueto had done in his 7 rehab starts. The 37-year-old Cueto pitched to a 10.24 ERA over 29 MiLB innings, allowing 49 hits while surrendering a staggeringly-high 16 home runs while working his way back from injury. "He attacked...velocity was up 93-94. Changeup was good," said manager Skip Schumaker. To Schumaker's point, Cueto registered 13 fastballs 93.0-plus mph, topping out at 93.7. Quite a contrast from the veteran's AAA outings—his fastball velo maxed out at 92.4 for Jacksonville. Perhaps it was the adrenaline of competing at the highest level, or a byproduct of being able to "air it out" in a relief role rather than having to pace himself. Making his first career start against Miami, Kyle Bradish proved pristine, limiting the Fish to just 3 hits over 7 1/3 shutout innings to pick up his 6th win of the season. Batting in the top of the 9th, though, the Marlins—still trailing by 5—would turn things on in a big way. Garrett Cooper's second hit of the day and a Yuli Gurriel double would set Miami up for 2nd and 3rd before both were driven in by a Jean Segura double. In 12 July contests, Segura has hit .341. Segura would immediately race home on a Jon Berti single to cut the deficit to 2 before Dane Myers capped off a 3-for-3 day with an RBI double to score Berti. In doing so, Myers became the 11th player in Marlins history to hit at least .400 in his first 9 games with the club (he's at .406). However, Miami's hopes of a comeback would be squashed when Luis Arraez (0-for-5, K) flew out to left to end the afternoon. With the loss, the Marlins fall to 21-8 in one-run games, and 53-42 overall. Of Note Santander's 1st inning home run was the 100th of his career. With the loss, Miami's run differential now sits at minus-10 through 95 games played.Wacky stat line: George Soriano became just the 15th pitcher since 1901 and first since 1990 to pitch at least 3 hitless innings while allowing 2 or more unearned runs, but 0 earned runs. Looking Ahead Things, at least on paper, look to get easier for Miami moving forward. They'll travel to St. Louis to matchup against the Cardinals, who the Marlins took 3 of 4 from July 3-6. Skip Schumaker and Co. will turn to Jesús Luzardo (8-5, 3.29 ERA) in Monday's series opener. Against St. Louis on July 4, Luzardo worked 6 scoreless frames en route to his 7th win of the season in a 15-3 Miami rousting. First pitch from Busch Stadium is slated for 7:45 EST.
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In the final game before the All-Star break, and on the eve of the 2023 Home Run Derby, loanDepot Park was the site of a mini-derby of its own. When the dust settled, the Marlins would emerge victorious, beating the Phillies 7-3 to end the first half at 53-39. Batting in the bottom of the 1st following a Bryan De La Cruz one-out double, Jesús Sánchez tattooed a 94-mph Aaron Nola fastball 461 feet over the center field wall to give Miami for his 9th home run of the season, giving Miami an early 2-0 lead. Two innings later, the Dane Myers honeymoon phase would persist by way of his first career home run. Through his first 6 career games, Myers has hit .409 with an 1.000 OPS. The exclamation point of the bottom of the 3rd, though, came via the aforementioned De La Cruz, hitting a solo blast of his own in what would eventually be his third four-hit game of the season. Jean Segura, though not homering, would add an RBI single of his own in the 3rd. In his first plate appearance, a 114 mph line drive that resulted in a line out to Trea Turner made for the hardest hit ball of Segura's career dating back to the start of the Statcast era (2015-present). As good as Miami was at the plate—with 8 of the 9 starters collecting hits—Jesús Luzardo matched that with his performance on the mound tenfold. Over 6 1/3 innings, Luzardo held the Philadelphia bats to just 4 hits, striking out 9 in his 8th win of the season. Luzardo concludes the first half with a 3.29 ERA in his 19 starts, and his 129 strikeouts are tied with A.J. Burnett for second-most in franchise history before the break. In 5 starts dating back to June 18, Luzardo has pitched 31.2 innings and allowed just 4 runs, striking out 40 hitters in that stretch. The only blemish on Luzardo's line came by way of a two-run homer off the bat of Edmundo Sosa in the top of the 5th. Beyond that, the 25-year-old left-hander struck out the side in both the 3rd and 4th innings. "On the attack," noted manager Skip Schumaker. "Slider was good, 97 (mph) angling heater...He just kept guys off balance...You could see he had a little more adrenaline going." That adrenaline was its apex in the bottom of the 7th following a hit-by-pitch to Bryson Stott that caused merited some chirping between Luzardo and the Phillies dugout. In Saturday's 5-3 Miami win, Braxton Garrett had hit DH Bryce Harper on the elbow with a pitch that forced the former MVP to exit early. Harper would sit out the series finale Sunday. Stott would soon be erased thanks to 6-4-3 double play off the bat of Alec Bohm, courtesy of JT Chargois. Miami would tack on runs in both the 7th and 8th thanks to RBI singles from De La Cruz and Nick Fortes, with the latter collecting his first hit since July 3. Of Note Sunday marked the third time this season that the Marlins had hit at least 3 home runs in a single game, having previously done so on April 26 and June 11. With his third consecutive game multi-hit game, Jean Segura continued a July surge that's seen him hit .344 in 36 plate appearances while also raising his season average from .197 to .216.The 2023 Marlins are just the second team since 1901 to win 53 of their first 92 regular season games despite a run differential of -4 or worse, joining the 2005 Washington Nationals. Looking Ahead The All-Star festivities are set to commence in Seattle with the Home Run Derby on Monday, followed by the 93rd Midsummer Classic set for Tuesday featuring 2B Luis Arraez and OF/DH Jorge Soler. Marlins fans will have to wait until Friday to watch their entire team back in action. When games do resume, Miami will continue playing against tough teams with a road series against the Baltimore Orioles.
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