Louis Addeo-Weiss

Relive all of the ups and downs of the 2023 Miami Marlins with our Fish On First Season Review, containing detailed articles about a wide variety of players. The FOF staff analyzes the individual impact that each of them had and what it means for their future with the organization. This installment focuses on utility player Jon Berti. 2023 TimelineAugust 21—Sets new career high with 103 games playedSeptember 24—Collects second career multi-HR gameSeptember 27—Homers in 4-2 win over New York to secure Miami's first winning record in a full-length season since 2009Notable 2023 stats: 133 G, 7 HR, 16 SB, 103 OPS+, 5 DRS, 2.5 rWAR (age-33 season) Since arriving to the Marlins organization on a modest minor league deal, Jon Berti has been a quality contributor. It seemed as though he was achieving peak performance in 2022 when he led the majors with 41 stolen bases. You could make the case that Berti's 2023 campaign was even better. He replicated his previous year's production in terms of wins above replacement, but also played 31 additional games. That increased volume helped Berti set new career highs in hits (114), home runs (7), RBI (33), total bases (157), and adjusted OPS+ (103). Berti produced 11 of Miami's go-ahead RBI in 2023, including four in the eighth inning or later, highlighted by a walk-off single to beat the Pirates on June 24. Berti completed the regular season on a high note by recording multiple hits in six of his last 10 games. Despite MLB's implementation of bigger bases and restrictions on pickoff attempts in 2023, Berti's stolen base total fell from 41 to just 16. Opportunities to steal were abundant, yet he didn't run nearly as often, and when he did, his success rate plummeted (career-worst six times caught stealing). It's not as if Berti's athleticism eroded. He only saw a marginal drop in average sprint speed, from 29.6 to 29.3 ft/sec, still putting him in the 95th percentile. Manager Skip Schumaker did note on several occasions that Berti had been dealing with general soreness. Also worth mentioning, this was Schumaker's first year on the job. Under his direction, the Marlins roster as a whole was less inclined to run than they had been with Don Mattingly in charge. Jon Berti’s 2022 and 2023 Statcast percentile rankings | Baseball SavantBerti's solid counting stats at the plate still came with some warts. He posted a career-low 85.4 mph average exit velocity, ranking in the second percentile among big league hitters. Normally a relatively patient hitter, Berti also saw a significant year-over-year drop to his walk rate, from 10.4 to 6.8 percent (77th to 30th percentile). On the other side of the ball, Berti saw time at five defensive positions. That included 52 starts at shortstop, more than doubling his previous career total there. He posted positive total zone runs at SS (+3), 3B (+2) and LF (+3). For the year, his efforts with the glove netted him a respectable six total zone fielding runs, five outs above average (OAA), and five defensive runs saved. Only Joey Wendle accrued more value by way of DRS among Marlins position players than Berti did in 2023. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/06/6d3a8f57-6dd03482-408618f5-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Looking AheadWhile it's not out of the realm of possibility for Berti to replicate his 2023 production in 2024, regression seems the safer bet. Consider the larger sample of his career, the fact that he'll be 34 years old, as well as the uncharacteristically high .349 batting average on balls in play he benefited from this past summer. The Marlins should proceed as if he'll be a versatile bench piece rather than a consistent starter at any particular spot. On Monday, the Marlins exercised Berti's 2024 team option at $3.625M, good value for a Swiss army knife-type like him. Photo by Jesus Sanchez/Fish On First

Relive all of the ups and downs of the 2023 Miami Marlins with our Fish On First Season Review, containing detailed articles about a wide variety of players. The FOF staff analyzes the individual impact that each of them had and what it means for their future with the organization. This installment focuses on utility man Garrett Hampson. 2023 TimelineMarch 26—optioned to AAA Jacksonville after hitting .158 in spring trainingApril 4—recalled from AAAJune 26—optioned to AAAJuly 5—recalled from AAAAugust 2—optioned back to AAAAugust 23—recalled once again from AAANotable 2023 Statistics: .348 OBP, .726 OPS, 1.3 rWAR "Garrett Hampson is going to take an at-bat for the Marlins in a postseason game here in 2023." You would have been totally dismissive of that absurd statement had it been presented to you at the time of Hampson's signing, and for good reason. Hampson had just exhibited a four-year run of consistently poor offensive performance for the Colorado Rockies, posting a 68 OPS+ between 2019-2022. The occasional home run, stolen base and defensive versatility hadn't made enough of a case for the Rockies to tender him at season's end. They let him go. As Kim Ng had done multiple times before with the likes of Steven Okert and Anthony Bender, she made a shrewd minor league signing by bringing Hampson in ahead of 2023. The Marlins likely do not play in the postseason without him in the picture. Much of Hampson's improvement came from his production against fastballs. After hitting only .249 (172-for-690) on said offerings between 2019-22, Hampson skyrocketed to a .352 clip and slugged .520 against them as a Marlin. Offspeed pitches were a major deficiency for him, though. In 31 plate appearances ending on these pitches, Hampson hit a microscopic .032. That led to his overall output actually being better against same-handed pitching than it was against lefties, and it challenged manager Skip Schumaker to find the appropriate situations to deploy him considering the lack of conventional platoon splits. Hampson's plate approach was also solid. He drew walks in 9.1-percent of his plate appearances, nearly matching his career-best 9.3-percent mark from 2022. https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/6f085b38-fe32-47f1-a3e9-64ef3824e5ff.mp4Hampson started games at six different positions (2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF and RF). Grading out as an average defender (-1 DRS, -1 Rfield, and 0.0 dWAR), this kind of versatility proves immensely valuable for any club. https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/07e43c0a-082b-4a45-bc80-c86bf894e728.mp4Hampson's baserunning—arguably his best tool whilst in Colorado—remained elite, rating in the 98th percentile in average sprint speed. Strangely, he only attempted five steals in 117 stolen base opportunities, per Baseball-Reference, succeeding all five times. Looking AheadWas Hampson's 2023 campaign too good to be true? Well, his expected weighted on-base average was .295, virtually identical to his career wOBA (.294). He over-performed by 28 points in that respect, which will be hard to replicate. His 2024 projections will inevitably call for some regression. Worth noting too, unlike this past season, he'll be out of minor league options moving forward, so the Marlins won't be able to demote him to Jacksonville unless he clears waivers. Hampson is arbitration-eligible, having yet to accrue enough service time to hit free agency. Unlike the Rockies a year ago, the Marlins ought to be eager to tender him a contract. Look for him to suit up with Miami next year, continuing to plug whichever positional needs present themselves. Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images

Relive all of the ups and downs of the 2023 Miami Marlins with our Fish On First Season Review, containing detailed articles about a wide variety of players. The FOF staff analyzes the individual impact that each of them had and what it means for their future with the organization. This installment focuses on infielder Luis Arraez. 2023 TimelineJanuary 20—traded from Minnesota Twins to Miami Marlins in exchange for Pablo López and prospects José Salas and Byron ChourioMarch 11-18—represented Venezuela in the World Baseball ClassicApril 12—went 4-for-5 in Philadelphia en route to authoring the first cycle in Marlins historyJune 25—entered play hitting .401 ahead of his 73rd game of the seasonJuly 11—collected two hits and an RBI in MLB All-Star GameSeptember 15—recorded first career multi-HR game in 9-6 comeback victory against AtlantaSeptember 18—became first Marlin since Dee Strange-Gordon in 2015 to collect 200 hits in a seasonSeptember 19—sprained left ankle during pre-game infield practiceNotable 2023 statistics: .354 BA, 203 H, 5.5 K%, 133 OPS+, 4.9 rWAR In what was arguably the boldest trade of Kim Ng's tenure, the Marlins packaged Pablo López and a pair of prospects to the Twins for Luis Arraez. Although fresh off winning the AL batting title, the acquisition of Arraez was risky considering the immense value going the other way and some of the perceived limitations to his game. Fortunately, the deal paid dividends for both sides. Minnesota quickly locked up López long term, and he responded with a 234-strikeout regular season and two stellar postseason outings for a Twins team that won the AL Central. As for Miami, Arraez thrived under MLB's new shift restrictions, flirting with a .400 batting average deep into the summer and ultimately finishing at .354 to win his second consecutive batting title. Arraez is the first player since Josh Hamilton (.359 in 2010) to best a .350 batting average in a non-shortened season and he became the first player ever to win consecutive batting titles in both the American and National League. His new employer also made their first full-season playoff appearance since 2003, thanks in large part to the starring role Arraez played. No particular pitch type disarms him. On fastballs, Arraez hit .353. On breaking pitches, he hit .359. On offspeed offerings, he hit .351. Whatever you throw him, turn around and get familiar with watching the ball sail into the outfield grass. It's no wonder he became just the 22nd player since 1901 with at least three five-hit games in a single season. Luis Arraez's production by pitch group | Baseball SavantArraez's strikeout avoidance makes him a unicorn in today's game. He became the first player since Plácido Polanco in 2007 to be K'd fewer than 35 times in a season of 600-plus plate appearances. Getting ahead in the count against him was hardly an advantage for opposing pitchers. With an average exit velocity of just 88.3 mph, Arraez ranked in the 29th percentile among qualified big leaguers, according to Baseball Savant. However, in an ode to dead ball martyr Wee Willie Keeler, Arraez "hit 'em where they ain't" to set up and drive in Marlins runs. His average launch angle dropped year-over-year (from 12.9 to 11.5 degrees) and he exploited the middle of the field. Arraez also tallied a career-best 10 home runs. Since 1951, there have only been five qualified seasons where a hitter hit .350 or better, homered at least 10 times, and struck out less than 35 times: Stan Musial (1957), George Brett (1980), Tony Gwynn (1994, 1997), and Arraez in 2023. Despite living in an entirely different generation, Arraez feels like a hitter in the mold of these men. Marlins fans were enamored with his throwback style. Looking Ahead As the Twins did with Pablo López, it is without debate that incoming Marlins front office leadership ought to extend Luis Arraez and ensure he remains in Miami for the long haul. On a roster that feels primed for a shakeup this offseason, one of the few certainties lies in the fact that Miami can pencil Arraez in as their starting second baseman for 2024. Photo by Danis Sosa/Fish On First

It goes without saying the 2023 season brought with it many surprises for the Miami Marlins: late-game comebacks, a near-historic record in one-run games, an 8-game skid following the All-Star break, culminating in an improbable playoff berth. It was a rollercoaster in the most literal sense of the word. Looking ahead to 2024, expectations have been raised. Miami has never reached the postseason in consecutive years. Assuming that GM Kim Ng remains in place and owner Bruce Sherman approves of increased investment in the major league roster, it's not unreasonable to dream about. However, any path that leads back to October hinges on outside reinforcements (being outscored by 57 runs is not a sustainable model). Here are some free agent names who could help the 2024 club in one way or another, while also not breaking the bank. SP Seth Lugo Notable 2023 Stats: 3.57 ERA (115 ERA+), 2.2 BB/9, 5.63 IP/GS The news that staff ace and reigning NL Cy Young Sandy Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery leaves the Marlins with little choice but to make moves to augment their 2024 starting rotation. The addition of Seth Lugo could be a sleeper hit move to fill some of the 200-plus inning gap created by Alcantara's absence. After spending the first five seasons of his career playing the Ross Stripling role of bouncing between the bullpen and starting rotation, the Mets entrenched Lugo firmly into their bullpen heading into 2021. Over the next two years, Lugo authored 111 ⅓ innings of 3.56 ERA ball (111 ERA+), while also striking out more than a batter per inning (10 K/9). Upon joining the Padres for the 2023 season, the right-hander saw himself return to the starting rotation, posting a Xerox-like 3.57 ERA, this time over a career-best 146 ⅓ frames. He finished the campaign on a high note, coming up just one out shy of shutting out the Giants on Sept. 26. Lugo's success could largely be attributed to the leaps he took with his sinker, posting a run value of plus-11 after being worth minus-4 runs each of the last two seasons. Lugo declining his $7.5M player option for 2024 and re-entering free agency appears to be a formality. OF/1B Mark Canha Notable 2023 Stats: .355 OBP, 15.6 K%, 2.2 rWAR None of what Mark Canha does "wows" you, but his consistency deserves some praise. Canha has a .364 OBP since the start of 2018. During the last two seasons (mostly with the Mets), he posted a solid .259/.359/.395 slash line (114 OPS+). Even better was the fact that Canha accompanied his patient approach (9.5 BB%) with a lower-than-league-average K% (17.6). A move to Milwaukee at the trade deadline saw Canha rediscover some of that lost power, as evidenced by a 75-point rise in his OPS. While the Marlins got similar surface-level production out of Bryan De La Cruz in 2023 (.411 SLG, .715 OPS), the difference is evident when comparing the two defensively. De La Cruz accrued -8 defensive runs saved (DRS) between all three outfield positions, and his -7 OAA (Outs Above Average) ranked 215th out of 263 potential fielders. Canha, on the other hand, proved closer to the middle (-1 OAA, 152nd) with bonus points for him also possessing the ability to moonlight at first base in a pinch. Canha, who turns 35 in February, has a $11.5M club option for next season. Even if the Brewers pick that up, he could be a trade target for Miami. C Austin Hedges Notable 2023 Stats: 99th percentile in Fielding Run Value, 98th percentile in Framing, 11 DRS If there were ever a catcher to supplant Jeff Mathis in today's game, it may be Austin Hedges. Simply put, he cannot hit. Hedges owns a career .568 OPS in 2,213 plate appearances, good enough for -3.4 oWAR. Among the 266 hitters with at least 2,000 PA since 2015, Hedges's adjusted 55 OPS+ is by far the worst in the majors. The 122-point gap between Hedges and the number 1 hitter in that span, Mike Trout (177), is the same as the difference between Rickey Henderson (127) and hitter Greg Maddux (5). So, why do we have him here? As undoubtedly bad as he has been offensively, he has been the exact opposite and then some defensively. Since debuting in 2015, Hedges' 86 defensive runs saved are the most among all catchers and sixth-most among all players in the sport. Only Tyler Flowers (70) and Yasmani Grandal (62) added more strikes to their respective pitching staff in that span than Hedges (61), and only Caleb Joseph saved more runs (15) than him (14), per Fielding Bible's Adjusted ER Saved metric. While the aforementioned Grandal (another free agent) provides more potential upside at the plate, Hedges has managed to sustain his high-level caliber of defense longer. Couple that with a Marlins organization that could very well move on from Jacob Stallings, and the fact that Hedges will come dirt cheap, a potential tandem of Hedges and Nick Fortes could give the 2024 Fish a brick wall behind home plate. Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Braxton Garrett has been the Marlins' most consistent starter here in 2023, but there's an element of his deep pitch mix that continues to hinder his success. In an era where more eyes are centered on the radar gun than ever before, Garrett's low-90s fastball velocity is an outlier. He ranks only in the eighth percentile among MLB pitchers in that category. However, he has demonstrated more than enough craft and guile to overcome his "lack of stuff" en route to accruing 3.9 Baseball-Reference WAR, improbably leading the Marlins rotation and ascending to sixth-best among all NL pitchers. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-06/22/8c8c277a-9ec5a988-6144f4e9-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Garrett's ability to control the strike zone has been crucial. His 1.56 BB/9 is fourth-lowest in the majors (min. 150 IP). He's had 11 walk-less starts this season, which keeps him efficient and mitigates the damage wrought by hard-hit balls. The variety of Garrett's pitch types makes him unpredictable for opponents. His sinker, slider and cutter have been worth 25 runs better than average collectively, per Baseball Savant. Garrett's 2023 run value by pitch type | Baseball SavantIf there is a crux to the former first-round pick's pitch arsenal, it's his curveball. Scouts lauded it as Garrett matriculated through the Marlins farm system and it proved to be the most serviceable offering in his debut cameo in 2020. But it didn't contribute much to out-getting in the two seasons to follow: 2021: -3 RV, .444 BA, .722 SLG2022: -1 RV, .381 BA, .619 SLGThe old saying "third time's the charm" didn't apply in this case, unfortunately. Hitters have torched Garrett's curveball this season to the tune of a .515 batting average, an absurdly high 1.091 SLG, and a minus-9 run value. Of the six pitches that he features, the curveball is also routinely hit the hardest, averaging 93.4 miles per hour off the bat, empowering his opposition to square it up with the regularity of Yandy Díaz or J.D. Martinez. Here's where Garrett ranks in 2023 among the 171 pitchers to have at least 25 plate appearances conclude with a curveball. -9 run value: 168th-4.4 RV/100: 171st.515 BA: 171st1.091 SLG: 171st60% Hard Hit: 171stLowest curveball run value among MLB pitchers in 2023 | Baseball SavantWhile there is intangible value to having a "show pitch" that upsets hitters' timing, anything that generates outputs akin to a player whose attributes are turned up to 99 in MLB The Show is a net negative. Hypothetically, what would happen to Garrett if he took the curveball out of the equation entirely? Despite throwing the pitch only 8.5 percent of the time, it has yielded five of his 18 home runs. Stripping those from the record would drop his 2023 HR/9 rate from 1.04 to 0.75, a mark that would rank third among the 56 pitchers to throw at least 150 innings. While there is no shame in allowing homers to Rafael Devers and Marcell Ozuna—as Garrett has with his curveball in 2023—it's not as easy to excuse against the likes of Jurickson Profar and...Carter Kieboom? https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/694f77fe-7f52-4ebe-99c4-8dbd6cf0b44e.mp4Garrett rides into the final week of the 2023 NL Wild Card race on a hot streak, having allowed only two earned runs in his last four starts. One of the keys to his success? Nobody has recorded a hit against his curveball during that span. Replacing Garrett's curveballs with merely average pitches could conceivably elevate him from a rock-solid mid-3.00's ERA arm to an All-Star-caliber sub-3.00 ERA contract extension candidate. In the meantime, Garrett has remained loyal to his curve by using it in all 30 of his appearances this season. That hasn't stopped the Marlins from going 21-9 (.700 W%) in those contests. It'll be fascinating to observe whether he continues to trust it with so much at stake for the Fish. Photo by Jesus Sanchez/Fish On First

"Every game down the stretch is important." As sick as you may be of hearing that sentiment, it carries more meaning to the Miami Marlins with each passing day. Their 6-1 victory on Sunday clinched the series against the probable NL Central champion Milwaukee Brewers. Suffice to say winning any series is huge, but winning a series against a team after they erupted for 16 runs in their opening salvo on Friday and doing so in the midst of Wild Card chase ought to be especially satisfying for Marlins fans. Of the club's 17 hits on the afternoon, nine came at the expense of Milwaukee starter Freddy Peralta, matching a season-high setback on April 15. Edward Cabrera provided the club with another strong outing, allowing just one run over five-plus innings, striking five and walking two to pick up his seventh win of the season. The recent success of Cabrera, who spent time at AAA following a demotion earlier this year, serves as a much-needed shot in the arm for a club coping with the losses of reigning NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara and rookie phenom Eury Pérez. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-09/24/59130e11-12fdfb01-6e351e66-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4"We've talked about next man up for a majority of the year," said Skip Schumaker. "We've had a lot of injuries...It tests your depth, it tests your staff's belief in guys, and I think there's leadership in that clubhouse that allows us to get where we're at." One of those leaders in question, longest active tenured position player Jon Berti, proved a vital part of the Miami effort, swatting two home runs in the victory. Berti's second of the day came on the heels of a 13-pitch at-bat that saw him foul off seven different Julio Teheran offerings before going opposite field to secure the second multi-home run game of his career. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-09/24/8488c56c-5cddd2cf-4265b23c-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Josh Bell factored into the winning effort thanks to reaching base four times on the strength of three hits and his 11th home run since joining the Marlins. In 48 games since coming over from Cleveland, Bell has seen his season OPS go from .701 to .748. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-09/24/170105f6-168f3448-acddc103-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4The bullpen provided four scoreless innings of relief of Cabrera, highlighted by recently claimed Matt Moore bailing Cabrera out of a two-on, no-out jam in the top of the sixth. The apex of the Marlins bullpen performance Sunday came when Tanner Scott shut the door by recording his 99th, 100th and 101st strikeouts of the season. With six games to go and everything to lose, the Marlins will go through the Mets and Pirates in order to determine whether they will be playing playoff baseball here in 2023. Of Note Xavier Edwards, starting at 2B in place of Luis Arraez, collected his first career three-hit game in the victory.Miami's win, their 81st of the 2023 season, clinched their first full non-losing season since 2009. Finishing the home schedule with 46 wins, the 2023 Marlins finished tied with the 2001 and 2002 squads for third-most such victories in franchise history. Scott joins just Kyle Barraclough (2016) as the only other Marlins reliever to strike out 100 or more batters in a season (David Phelps collected 114 strikeouts in 2019, though 32 of those came across 5 starts). Looking Ahead Monday will make for the Marlins' last off-day before embarking on a six-game road trip to conclude the regular season. When play resumes Tuesday, Miami opens up in Citi Field to take on the New York Mets. Braxton Garrett (9-6, 3.53 ERA) will vie for his 10th win of the season in what could be his ultimate outing here in 2023. Garrett turned in six innings of one-run ball in his last outing against New York on Sept. 19 in Miami's only win of that series. The Mets will go finesse-on-finesse, as Joey Lucchesi (3-0, 2.88 ERA) is set to take the hill in Tuesday's 7:10 opener. Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images

Charlie Morton's 96-mph fastball hissed over the outside part of the plate in the bottom of the 3rd inning, but Jazz Chisholm Jr. saw to it that it would not make contact with Travis d'Arnaud's mitt. No less than 8 seconds later, when the ball landed in the right-center field grass some 417 feet from home plate, the eruption of the fans was akin to something that would have permeated the Colosseum Walls during the Ancient Olympic Games. Chisholm's missile would make for his second grand slam in as many days, as well as the second for a Marlins team that had hit none in their first 148 games to open the 2023 season, and it engorged their lead to 5-0. But if you thought that was bad, how about back-to-back 4-run innings in the 6th and 7th? Well, the Marlins did just that, and with some oomph behind them. After plating a run in the 5th after Morton issued four consecutive two-out walks, Jorge Soler—playing in his first game since returning from IL and having already reached base twice on the day—reminded his teammates and fans of what they had missed these past two weeks when he sent a long two-run home run into the left field seats to up the lead to 7. In the ensuing 4-run 7th, more power, this time Jake Burger's second home run in as many days, to give Miami a 14-0 lead, one they certainly would not relinquish, as they ran away with this one, 16-2, setting a season-high in runs scored. With the win, the Marlins secured their first series sweep against Atlanta since September 25-27, 2015, and reached the 78-win plateau for the first time since 2016. Miami outscored the Braves 36-13 in the weekend series. "Our swing decisions this series were exceptional. It just shows you our offense is clicking at the right time," Skip Schumaker said. Pending Sunday night's game between fellow NL Wild Card contenders the Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks, the Marlins find themselves tied for the third and final spot. Due to the tiebreakers they hold over those clubs, they control their own destiny over the two weeks that remain in the regular season. "We played hard, but we always do," said Chisholm, who added three walks to go with his grand slam. "Our team is there to fight, and we're going to go out and do there every single pitch...We just beat the number one team in baseball." Overshadowed by the offensive explosion Sunday afternoon was the outing put forth by Jesús Luzardo, who held Atlanta bats to just 4 hits over 6 scoreless innings, picking up 8 strikeouts in the process. Now up to 194 strikeouts on the season, Luzardo has a chance to join Al Leiter as the only left-handed pitchers in Marlins history to strike out 200 or more batters in a season. Of NoteBoth teams used position players on the mound to complete the game—Nicky Lopez for the Braves and Jacob Stallings for the Fish.With his second grand slam in as many days, Jazz Chisholm Jr. became the first player in Marlins history to do so in consecutive games. The 2023 Marlins joined the 1995 club as the only two in team history with multiple streaks of 10 or more runs scored. The 1995 club did so three separate times.Miami's 36 runs scored tied a club record for most runs in any three-game span set back in 2008.Nick Fortes, who added a home run in the victory, set a career-high with 4 hits. Sunday's win probability chart | Baseball SavantLooking AheadThe Marlins continue both their final homestand of the season and divisional play on Monday when they welcome the New York Mets to LoanDepot Park. Edward Cabrera (6-7, 4.52 ERA) is slated to make his first proper start since being recalled on September 6. In the two prior starts against New York this season, Cabrera, while allowing just 2 hits over 6 2/3 innings pitched, has walked 13 batters combined in those outings. The Mets will counter with rookie José Butto (1-2, 3.46 ERA). First pitch is slated for 6:40 EST. Photo courtesy of Miami Marlins

As the fans of Philadelphia awaited the start of yet another exciting sport's season, with their Eagles set for a 4:25 ET kickoff, Ranger Suarez gave them another reminder to keep tabs on the Phillies down the stretch and their quest to get back to the World Series. In the words of Yogi Berra and particularly applicable to the 2023 Marlins, "it ain't over 'til it's over." Sunday's 5-4 come-from-behind victory against the Phillies was yet another reminder of their resiliency. With the win, Miami now improves to 74-69, including an MLB-best 30-12 in one-run games. "Ballsy, gutsy, all of those types of words and adjectives," said Skip Schumaker when reflecting on Sunday's win. Three days after Ryan Pepiot vied for a bid at perfection, Suarez kept a zero in the Marlins hit column entering the 7th inning, authoring a career-high 10 strikeouts against 3 walks in the process. Run support would come quickly for Suarez, as the Phillies needed just two pitches to tag a two-spot on opener Steven Okert. Kyle Schwarber would send Okert's first offering into center field for a base hit before Trea Turner continued his torrid run of hitting with a two-run homer into the Philadelphia bullpen. The aforementioned Schwarber, who, himself, homered in Saturday's Phillies victory, made it two in two days when he sent his 43rd long ball of the season deep into the right field seats of Citizens Bank Park. In the top of the seventh, a Jake Burger flyout brought Suarez within 8 outs of the no-hitter. But then, Bryan De La Cruz worked a 4-pitch walk before recently-recalled Dane Myers took advantage of a Suarez changeup that caught just enough of the plate to be hit over the head of center fielder Brandon Marsh for Miami's first hit. One batter later, Yuli Gurriel would double home a pair to cut the Philadelphia lead to 1. Dating back to August 14, Gurriel had just one extra-base hit in last 30 plate appearances prior to that hit. From one struggling Marlin to another, Nick Fortes, himself without a hit in September, singled home Gurriel to tie the score at 3-3. One inning later, Miami would pull ahead when De La Cruz's 19th HR of the season give the Fish their fourth and fifth runs of the afternoon. With two hits Sunday, De La Cruz now owns an .867 OPS in nine September contests. But the Phillies are not affectionately referred to as the "Fightin' Phils" without reason. Come the bottom of the 8th, a rare Andrew Nardi booboo-outing saw him issue a pair of walks and a run-scoring double to Nick Castellanos to cut the Marlins lead down to 1. Schumaker would then turn to the hot hand, closer Tanner Scott, who immediately made quick work of Edmundo Sosa, striking him out on three pitches. As he did to end the ballgame Friday, Scott set Kyle Schwarber down on strikes, ending the 8th inning with Miami clinging to a one-run lead. But while he ended the bottom of the 8th with a flourish, Scott immediately ran into trouble entering the bottom of the 9th, as a Trea Turner hit-by-pitch and walk to Bryce Harper gave the Phillies first and second, no outs. Alec Bohm would ground into 6-4-3 double play to push Turner to third before Bryson Stott went down on strikes to lock down the Miami win. Of Note Sunday saw Suarez become just the fourth starting pitcher this season to strike out 10 or more Marlins, joining Spencer Strider, George Kirby and Shohei Ohtani. Scott's strikeout of Schwarber to end the 8th set a new single-season record for strikeouts by a Marlins left-handed reliever at 91, breaking his previous record of 90, set back in 2022. Looking Ahead From one playoff hopeful club to another, the Marlins will head from Philadelphia to Milwaukee as they get to set to commence a four-game series against the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers. Game 1 starter Jesús Luzardo will look to keep the good times rolling. In his last three outings dating back to August 30, Luzardo has allowed just 2 runs over his last 18 innings pitched. Monday's first pitch is slated for 7:40 EST from American Family Field. Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images

Sandy Alcantara may be the only pitcher in modern baseball who could allow 4-runs, 9-hits, and still easily give you 8 innings in under 100 pitches. Well, 94 pitches later, he did just that, and in a game that featured 5 total errors—two of which were his own doing—it was enough. The Marlins wrapped up a sweep of the Nationals to collect their first 70-win season since 2017. "Our pitching is why we won these four games this weekend," noted manager Skip Schumaker. It would take all of three pitches to get the Miami bats going, as Luis Arraez sent a Josiah Gray fastball into the Washington bullpen to give the Marlins a quick 1-0 lead. Miami coaxed a 32-pitch inning out of Gray, thanks in large part to their three walks in the opening frame that produced an additional two runs. The Marlins plated first-inning runs in each of the four games of this series. And with their ace on the mound, the Marlins had to feel pretty good about their chances. Alas, Washington would quickly respond in the bottom half when Lane Thomas hit his 6th home run against Miami this season. The two pitchers would get into a grove soon after, with Gray working three ensuing scoreless innings before departing, while Alcantara resorting to his efficient ways, completed the first four innings of work on just 43 pitches. As has been the case for him all season, though, Alcantara's undoing came in a single inning. Today's antagonist, the bottom of 5th, saw Alcantara not only cough up the lead, but trade it with Washington. Leadoff hitter Ildemaro Vargas would reach at the hands of Alcantara's first of two errors on the day before Dominic Smith—who homered in Saturday's 11-5 Washington loss—doubled to score Vargas to make it a 3-2 ballgame. The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner's 5 errors are the most by any pitcher in 2023. Following a Jacob Young single to tie the score at 3, re-enter Lane Thomas, who would single home Young to put the Nationals ahead. The Marlins would quickly fire back in the top of the 6th when Joey Wendle showed the aforementioned Vargas what the wrong side of an error looks like after a ground ball went under the third baseman's legs. Though the Nationals would threaten in the bottom half following an errant throw on a pickoff attempt by Alcantara, the Marlins ace would work through this and additional trouble in the 7th en route to completing 8 innings for the sixth time this season. Following singles from Arraez and Jake Burger, a Jazz Chisholm Jr. ground ball would be thrown away by CJ Abrams, allowing Arraez to score the go-ahead run. Chisholm would add his 18th stolen base of the season to set up a Bryan De La Cruz run-scoring single to give Miami some needed 9th inning insurance. Of Note With the win, the Fish conclude the year 11-2 against their NL East rivals. Since the start of 2022, Miami is a combined 26-6 against the Washington. Following the win, Miami sat half a game out of an NL Wild Card spot.Sunday marked Sandy Alcantara's 30th career outing of eight-plus innings pitched, easily the most of any pitcher since he joined the Marlins rotation in 2018. Thomas' 6 home runs against the Marlins in 2023 make him just the second player in Expos/Nationals history with 6 or more long balls against Miami in a single season. Only Bryce Harper, who hit 7 in his first NL MVP year in 2015, hit more. September sequel? Following a September 2022 that saw him hit .375 with an 1.142 OPS, Bryan De La Cruz has begun September 2023 with 6 hits in the month's first 3 games. Looking Ahead Miami will have the day off from play Monday as they head home to commence their toughest slate of games this season. The club will resume play Tuesday when they welcome the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers for a three-game series. Jesús Luzardo (9-8, 3.62 ERA) will take the ball for Miami in the series opener. In 3 career appearances against L.A., the hard-throwing lefty owns a 3.68 ERA. Future Hall of Famer and NL Cy Young candidate Clayton Kershaw (12-4, 2.48 ERA) is slated to take the ball for the Dodgers. In 14 career outings against Miami, the three-time Cy Young Award winner has a 2.68 ERA, while limiting hitters to a .193 batting average against. Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

When the Marlins went into the All-Star break on July 9th, they were flying (or swimming) higher than they had in a good while. At 53-39, the team sat firmly in 2nd place in the NL East while maintaining the top NL Wild Card spot. In the 38 games that followed, Miami sank to what felt like 20,000 leagues under the sea, going on a dismal 12-26 run entering play Sunday, regressing to that of a .500 team at 65-65. When the club then has to use a bullpen game in their attempts to remain above .500, it truly shows a team currently running on fumes. Fortunately, this edition of the Marlins bullpen game went in their favor, with Miami taking the series finale against the recently fun-to-watch Nationals, 2-1, keeping the team a game above-.500 at 66-65. Opener JT Chargois would start the contest for the Fish, working a scoreless 1st before handing the ball off to Bryan Hoeing. Having made 7 starts previously this season, Hoeing proved a worthy option to give the Marlins much-needed length, and he did just that, striking out 5 in 4 innings of 1-run ball. The right-hander would start the 6th inning before exiting after a Joey Meneses come backer hit off his left foot, though manager Skip Schumaker confirmed Steven Okert was set to face to Smith for the left-on-left matchup. "It was huge...To have Hoeing go four was huge. It really set us up," noted Schumaker. Hoeing's only real adversity came in a top of 3rd that saw the Nationals have runners on 2nd and 3rd with no outs. For his and Miami's sake, the damage would be limited to Washington's one and only run coming on a Dominic Smith RBI groundout. The Nationals lead would be short-lived, however, as Jorge Soler launched his 35th home run into the Auto Nation Alley section of loanDepot Park to put Miami ahead 2-1. It was the 19th of his long balls that have given the Marlins a lead. Following the Soler blast, a pitcher's duel it would be. Miami would go just 2-for-19 the rest of the way, while the Nats would muster a mere 3 hits in their last 20 at-bats. Making for the only real blemish on his otherwise strong outing, Washington's Trevor Williams worked 7-innings of 5-hit ball, striking out 5. A.J. Puk would work around a 1st and 2nd two-out jam in the 7th before Andrew Nardi authored a perfect 8th. Since last blowing the save that ultimately cost him his closer's role on July 30, Puk has quietly been among the club's more consistent relievers, allowing just 1 run over 9.2 innings. Confirming speculation that arose following the news that recently acquired David Robertson was out as closer, left-hander Tanner Scott (inarguably Miami's best reliever all season) was tasked with the final three outs. And as has been the case in the second half, things would be anything but easy. After retiring pinch-hitter Alex Call to begin the frame, back-to-back singles from Keibert Ruiz and Ildemaro Vargas put the Nationals in position to force a bottom of the 9th. Jacob Young, up to bat in his first big league start, rolled over to third base on a Scott slider to force a 5-4-3 double play to seal the win for Miami. Of Note Jorge Soler's 35th home run Sunday made for just the 6th time in franchise history that a player had crossed that threshold in a single-season, joining Gary Sheffield (42 in 1996), Marcell Ozuna (37 in 2017), and Giancarlo Stanton, who did it three times from 2012-17. At 66-65, the 2023 Marlins are just the 14th team since 1901 to be above .500 through their first 131 games while posting a run differential of at least -40. Miami will enter play Tuesday having been outscored 526-574 (-48).Looking Ahead Following Monday's scheduled off-day, the Marlins will welcome the Tampa Bay Rays to Miami for a brief two-game set. Due to a recent shuffling of the rotation, Sandy Alcantara (6-11, 4.16 ERA) will face the Rays for the first time since throwing a complete game against them on July 26. That was originally set to be Jesús Luzardo's turn in the rotation, but he'll go Wednesday instead. Tampa Bay will counter Alcantara with Aaron Civale (6-3, 2.59 ERA) in what will be his first career appearance against Miami. First pitch from loanDepot Park is slated for 6:40 EST. Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images

Fish pull off improbable 9th inning comeback to best the Yanks and take the series.In Sunday's series finale, the New York Yankees took a commanding 7-3 lead into the bottom of the 9th, three outs away from securing a series win in Miami. Then, they blew it. For the first eight innings, it was all Bombers. Gerrit Cole authored another chapter of a season that has seen him emerge as the favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K's. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/13/665f72b9-3e4edc26-938eea34-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Anthony Volpe continued his weekend torching of the Marlins, adding his 16th home run in what has already-been an impressive rookie campaign. Gleyber Torres reached base three more times and tied a career-high with a three stolen base afternoon. Even catcher Ben Rortvedt—hitting .107 entering play—got in on the action with his first long ball of the year. For Miami, Eury Pérez lasted just 4 innings in his second start since returning from minors, allowing 4 runs, and walking 2. In those two starts, Pérez has been tagged for a total of 8 runs in just 8.2 innings. Following him, Huascar Brazoban provided what could best be described as "ugly bulk," allowing 3 runs (all earned) over 2.2 innings, walking 4 in the process. The Yankees entered the final half inning with a 99-percent chance to win the game, per Baseball Savant. Here are the series of events, in order, that followed. Yuli Gurriel hits a lead off double—96% win probability, NYYJon Berti strikes out swinging—98% win probability, NYYNick Fortes singles to SS—96% win probability, NYYJazz Chisholm Jr. walks, Gurriel to 3rd, Fortes to 2nd—90% win probability, NYYJosh Bell reaches on a throwing error by pitcher Clay Holmes; Gurriel, Fortes score; 7-5 New York—80% win probability, NYYLuis Arraez triples to RF. Chisholm, Bell score. 7-7 tie—83% win probability, MIABryan De La Cruz walks—82% win probability, MIAJake Burger singles to CF. Arraez scores. Marlins win, 8-7."I wish we wouldn't have to wait for the 9th inning everytime, but a win's a win," said a smiling Skip Schumaker. The Marlins had done as they seemingly have all year long. With their backs against the wall, they rose to the opportunity, and came out on top. And for the both clubs, as trite as it may sound to those clinical readers of game recaps, if there was any game that serves as a team's season in a microcosm, this was certainly it. Of Note Marlins catchers allowed 5 stolen bases in a game for the eighteenth time in franchise history. This represents just their fourth win and first since 2005 in such contests.Burger's 9th inning hit made for the third walk-off hit of his career. In 11 games with Miami, he has hit a collective .311/.391/.488. Luis Arraez collected his 17th 3-hit game of the season, tied with Ronald Acūna Jr. for the most in the Majors. Looking Ahead The Marlins will have their work cutout for them, as they'll welcome the defending World Champion Houston Astros to loanDepot Park to commence a three-game series. Monday's series opener will see a battle of the southpaws. Braxton Garrett (6-3, 4.08 ERA) will square off against Framber Valdez (9-7, 3.30 ERA). First pitch is slated for 6:40 EST. Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images

Sandy labors, struggles; Miami bats go M.I.A. in series finale.The Miami Marlins are in trouble. With Sunday's 6-0 loss at the hands of the Texas Rangers, who swept the three-game weekend set, Miami fell to 58-55, losing 15 of their last 20 games. After opening the weekend with the absence of quality pitching, the Marlins had to feel pretty good considering who they were handing the ball to. Sandy Alcantara entered with a 0.53 ERA in the two starts preceding Sunday's against the Rangers. Fortune did not favor him in this instance, though. Alcantara was not helped by his defense, particularly the oft-sure-handed Jon Berti, who made a pair of errors at shortstop. Alcantara's 6 innings of work yielded 5 Texas runs (4 earned), raising his season ERA to 4.28. Nathaniel Lowe, Marcus Semien and Ezequiel Duran each tagged the reigning NL Cy Young award winner for home runs in the defeat. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/06/8c2d6ceb-18a2e7a5-3f390380-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Sunday also marked the third time this season where Alcantara had allowed 5 runs and struck out at least 7 without walking a batter. That ties a modern-era record for a single season. It's encouraging that he's been attacking the strike zone so consistently, but this approach is subjecting him to a lot of hard contact. Opposing him, Andrew Heaney, who the Marlins originally drafted 9th overall back in 2012, would be making his first start against the club that originally made him into a big leaguer. The Fish would muster just 4 hits and 2 walks, as Heaney shut Miami out over 5.2 innings of work. Miami's best chance to score came in the top of 6th, where the club had runners on first and second, no outs before a Jorge Soler line drive off the glove of third baseman Josh Jung turned into a 5-4 double play, thwarting a potential rally. Exiting the game with what was immediately deemed a left thumb contusion, x-rays later revealed a fracture for the aforementioned-Jung. Miami bats went just 3-for-25 with runners in scoring position in the weekend series. Recalled to replace Ryan Weathers on the roster, Geoff Hartlieb made his Marlins debut in the 8th inning, his first big league outing since 2021. He would be rudely greeted by Adolis García, who launched a first-pitch, leadoff home run. It was the fourth long ball of the day and tenth in the series for Texas. Of Note The Marlins have now been shut out 8 times this season. Sunday marked just the fifth time in Sandy Alcantara's career where he has allowed 3 home runs in an outing. Sunday also marked only the seventh time, and first since 2019, where the Marlins pitching staff has allowed 3 home runs three consecutive games. Miami is a collective 2-19 in those 21 total games. After sustaining exiting Saturday's 9-8 loss with a right hamstring cramp, Jazz Chisholm Jr. was out of the lineup in the series finale. Chisholm has played in all of 50 games this season, missing time with two separate IL stints. Looking Ahead Miami will continue their road trip Monday when they open up a series against fellow NL playoff hopefuls, the Cincinnati Reds. Eury Pérez will make his much-anticipated return to the big leagues. In 11 starts before being shut down, Pérez posted a miniscule 2.36 ERA. The Reds will counter with rookie Brandon Williamson (3-2, 4.85 ERA). /news/marlins-roster-moves-eury-perez-call-up/First pitch from Great American Ball Park is slated for 6:40 EST. Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images

Amid the post-All-Star blues, here are some positives we took from the Marlins' month of July.While the first three months of the 2023 regular season were incredibly forgiving to the Miami Marlins, July would largely be anything but. They entered play on July 1 with a 48-35 record, holding a firm two-game lead for the first NL Wild Card. However, the team would succumb to a second-half slump that saw them lose their first 8 games following the All-Star break. When July turned to August, Miami sat at 57-50, still very much in the thick of a playoff push, but more evident were the cracks on what had already been an unlikely early success story. With the overarching theme of July being one of crumbling optimism, there were still individual moments and stretches of play worth mentioning. Here's what went well. Ace Turning the CornerAn anomaly in the Marlins strong first half were the prolonged struggles of staff ace and reigning NL Cy Young award winner Sandy Alcantara. In 16 starts through the end of June, Alcantara posted a 4.82 ERA in those 102.2 innings of work. The underlying metrics—particularly his 3.69 FIP and continued suppression of the long ball (0.7 HR9)—suggest he was due to positively regress, and fortunately, amid a month of collective woes, Alcantara seemed to right the ship. In five July starts, Alcantara posted a 3.31 ERA, right in line with his career 3.29 mark. Oddly enough, his FIP and ERA continued on their dichotomous paths, but in the opposite directions, as his 4.38 FIP suggested luck being on the right side of Sandy, as opponents still managed a .728 OPS in 32.2 innings against the right-hander. In three of those aforementioned five outings, Alcantara allowed 2 or fewer earned runs, the highlight of which being his MLB-best second complete game of the season in a 7-1 win over Tampa Bay on July 26. And if July was only a teaser of things to come, then August may prove to be even better given the ace opened the year's eighth month with 8 scoreless innings against the division-rival Phillies. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/01/758722f0-e62180fc-fc0c260b-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4If this is the Alcantara Miami gets down the stretch, all that can be said is "watch out rest of the league." Late-inning reinforcementsThe Marlins front office leapt into action a week prior to the MLB trade deadline to shore up their slumping bullpen. Andrew Nardi missed virtually all of July with a triceps injury, and A.J. Puk turned every opposing hitter into Shohei Ohtani (1.078 OPS against in July). The club took note of the dilemma and added two arms to help stabilize the later innings. July 26 saw the a straight swap of Dylan Floro for Jorge López, with the former headed to Minnesota. López, while not off to the best start in the Twin Cities in 2023—posting a 5.09 ERA, 5.94 FIP, and a substandard 6.9 K/9—gives Miami a righty arm with tantalizing potential and an extra year of club control, as López will not hit free agency until after the 2024 season. Two days later, and Miami was back in action on the trade front, this time making an intradivisional deal with the New York Mets for longtime late-inning stalwart David Robertson. Immediate returns on the two proved successful, with López authoring two scoreless outings and Robertson collecting the save in the July 30 series finale against Detroit. While the old adage of "you never know" serves most relevant when discussing relievers in small samples, Robertson's past decade-and-a-half of high-level pitching in the later innings along with López being an All-Star as recently as last season justified these expenditures. Offensively, the end of July would also mark the return of two key contributors: outfielders Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Avisaíl García. Berti BopsAnything you get out of Jon Berti's bat is a bonus considering the value he consistently provides with his defensive versatility paired with the fact that he plays just about each of these positions at an above-average level (positive total zone runs at 3 positions, 93rd percentile OAA). Not only did the reigning MLB stolen base leader hit in July, but he did so with such proficiency that the Marlins could seldom go a game without starting him, as evidenced by a .383/.420/.511/.931 slash line in 47 plate appearances, good enough for a 154 wRC+. While he is walking much less than in previous years (his walk rate currently ranking in the 17th percentile), Berti has made up for it in 2023 by swinging at the appropriate pitches (chase rate in the 91st percentile), ones that he knows he can make solid contact against. Think of Berti as if Alfredo Amezaga were actually a competent Major League hitter.