Can Edward Cabrera control his future?

Now more than ever, the quality of stuff across baseball is mesmerizing. The sport is rife with young hurlers whose blazing fastballs and wipeout secondary pitches seemingly give them the potential to become future stars on big league mounds. 

Alas, so few of them distinguish themselves as such, and from there, it's difficult to sustain excellence from one year to the next. For every Justin Verlander, there are another fifty hard-throwing MLB pitchers who wind up with unremarkable careers due to a combination of injuries and inability to hone their craft (both mechanically and tactically).

For years, it's been easy to imagine Edward Cabrera ascending to an elite level. The 6'5" Marlins right-hander possesses the necessary stuff, a deep pitch mix with complementary weapons. In spurts, it has looked he is putting it all together, if not in the mold of Verlander 2.0, then maybe Sandy Alcantara lite? In 21 starts between 2021-22, Cabrera proved adept at preventing runs relative to his peers, boasting a 110 ERA+ (3.77 ERA) over those accompanying 98 innings pitched while also striking more than a batter an inning (9.5 K/9).

It was, however, the command that failed him, as evidenced by a 4.8 BB/9. Of the 330 pitchers to throw at least 90 innings in this span, Cabrera ranked in the 4th percentile in that department. Reliever Tanner Scott, who became Cabrera's teammate in 2022, boasted the worst such rate at 6.4 BB/9. Thanks to this and a 1.5 HR/9, Cabrera had a 5.14 FIP in this span. The wide gap between that and his ERA suggested his good outcomes were rooted in luck and potential regression awaited him should these kinks not be ironed out.

In 2023, Cabrera gave the Marlins 99 ⅔ innings. He set career bests in K's (118), HR/9 (1.0), and K/9 (10.7). His 4.43 FIP closely aligned with his 4.24 ERA (106 ERA+). However, his 6.0 BB/9 ranked 140th among the 141 pitchers to throw at least 90 innings, trailing only Michael Kopech of the White Sox (6.3). For this, Cabrera ranked in the 1st percentile in BB rate and was demoted to Triple-A for a brief period.

What makes Cabrera's scant control particularly frustrating is that when he is throwing strikes, offensive output against him has been anemic, as evidenced by a .215 opponent batting average last season.

This intersection of wildness and sparse batted ball damage puts Cabrera in the strangest of elite company. Only 18 times has a pitcher faced at least 400 hitters in a season while allowing a BB/9 of at least 6.0 and an opponent average of .215 or lower. Some of the names to do so include Nolan Ryan (3x), Randy Johnson (2x), Bob Turley (2x), Sam McDowell (1x), Herb Score (2x) and Mitch Williams (2x). A few days shy of his 26th birthday, the right-hander's body of work to this point suggests he can still eventually make that above-noted climb to elite starter status.

Cabrera's encore performance has been delayed by a right shoulder impingement, but his 2024 Marlins debut is fast approaching. In his most recent rehab start on Wednesday, he authored 5 ⅔ strong innings against Triple-A competition. Control continues to be the critical question, though, as he issued eight free passes in 12 ⅔ total frames of rehab work (5.7 BB/9).

A silver lining to the Marlins' abysmal 1-11 start to the season is they can afford to be patient with Cabrera. With Sandy Alcantara and Eury Pérez both on the shelf this year, there are fewer internal candidates to squeeze him out of the starting rotation. The pressure on the organization to stay in the postseason hunt is not as intense as it was a year ago. The conditions are apt for a Cabrera breakout.