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Everything posted by Ely Sussman
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The Curious Case of Eric Wagaman’s Nine Lives
Ely Sussman commented on ForeverMarlins's blog entry in Forever, Marlins
Simply doesn't look like this organization will ever give him that chance. Minor miracle that they even called him up at all. Unfortunately, I fully expect Johnston to be DFA'd after the season regardless of what he does between now and then.- 8 comments
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- 2025 mlb season
- eric wagaman
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Got sent down again and I'm cautiously optimistic that he has pitched the final game of his Marlins career.
- 7 replies
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- jacob berry
- andrew pintar
- (and 5 more)
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I can understand why they still want to see more from some of them, except for Josh White. Looks 100% ready to me.
- 7 replies
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- jacob berry
- andrew pintar
- (and 5 more)
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The Curious Case of Eric Wagaman’s Nine Lives
Ely Sussman commented on ForeverMarlins's blog entry in Forever, Marlins
Terrific stuff. I'll just add, I do feel the Marlins would've optioned Wagaman by now if there was a clear-cut, MLB-ready internal upgrade. There simply isn't one. Mervis flopped, De Los Santos needs another year and Berry is a similar player in a slightly different shape (who I think is dealing with a minor injury at the moment, anyway). They finally called up Johnston...and he doesn't look like an upgrade, either. As I've seen some folks recently ponder, with Norby on track for a return by month's end, that should bury Wagaman deeper on the bench. It may take the combo of Norby and Conine coming back in September to fully squeeze Wagaman out of the picture.- 8 comments
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- 2025 mlb season
- eric wagaman
- (and 8 more)
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With the Miami Marlins pitching staff decimated by injuries, Valente Bellozo pitched 68 ⅔ innings in the major leagues last season. Although the bottomline results were good, Bellozo's underlying performance was not, hence the chasm between his 1.6 bWAR and -0.1 fWAR. I was pretty confident that the fiery Mexican right-hander would have a reduced workload for the Marlins in 2025. Well, Bellozo is one more lengthy relief outing away from surpassing his 2024 innings total. There have been some encouraging changes in his new role, like an uptick in fastball velocity and a home run rate that's been sliced in half. His sweeper has developed into a plus pitch. However, he's still a control-over-command guy with one of MLB's lowest strikeout rates. He is a tantalizing matchup for left-handed batters and they have devoured him recently. The Marlins' game of the year, a chaotic comeback to topple the New York Yankees on August 1, was made all the more dramatic because Bellozo yielded a three-run home run to Trent Grisham on a fluttering changeup. His two appearances on the ongoing road trip have been mirror images of each other—entering the game with Miami trailing by only a run and allowing the deficit to swell. M3k0eVZfWGw0TUFRPT1fVUZKVVVGZFdVd0FBV2xBQUFnQUhCd2RXQUFBQVVWRUFVd2RYQjFJRFVsVmNWZ0pW.mp4 Sandwiched between those struggles, he breezed through 3 ⅔ scoreless frames against the Houston Astros, but that was easily the lowest-leverage situation of the bunch. The Marlins' usage of Bellozo is far more problematic than Bellozo himself. Why is he repeatedly being deployed in winnable games against the opposing team's most dangerous lefties, including José Ramírez in Thursday's loss? Every 26-man spot is important, so what is Tyler Zuber still doing here over Freddy Tarnok or Josh White, who are thriving in Triple-A Jacksonville with stuff packages that theoretically should work versus LHBs? In terms of both in-game maneuvers and roster construction, the Marlins have been questionably managed during their August downturn. Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville lost, 7-2. Nathan Martorella and Deyvison De Los Santos launched back-to-back home runs for the only Jumbo Shrimp offense. Double-A Pensacola lost, 9-0. High-A Beloit lost, 6-2. Brayan Mendoza's underwhelming season continues (5.0 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 83 pitches/52 strikes). Low-A Jupiter lost, 6-4. Since being acquired via trade, Esmil Valencia is slashing .419/.444/.631 with only three strikeouts in 36 plate appearances. DSL Marlins lost, 9-6. It's the first time since early July that they've suffered consecutive losses. DSL Miami won, 8-6. Kevin Defrank made his final regular season start (3.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K). Great day offensively for Alexander Requena (3-4, 2 RBI, SB). More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 Myles Lewis is out as the Marlins' director of data engineering, which adds some context to this job posting that went up earlier in the week. Lewis had been part of the organization's front office since the ownership change in 2017. His tenure included four years as director of analytics. 🔷 The Marlins are 13th in midseason farm system rankings from both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. Entering this season, they were ranked 21st and 16th by those outlets, respectively. 🔷 The Arizona Fall League revealed their full 2025 schedule. This year, Marlins players will be affiliated with the Mesa Solar Sox. Their season opener is October 7. 🔷 Thursday was Eric Wagaman's 28th birthday. ForeverMarlins explained what potential the Fish still see in him despite his unimpressive outcomes at the plate. 🔷 The Prediction Time leaderboard has been updated through the first 39 series. Become a SuperSub and we'll keep track of your predictions all season long! 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the New York Mets lost their fifth series in a row and hold just a half-game lead over the Cincinnati Reds for the third National League wild-card spot. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. reached 20 home runs for the fifth straight season. Highly regarded Chicago Cubs outfielder Owen Caissie went 0-for-4 in his major league debut. 🔷 Today's MLB game: the Marlins enter the final leg of their three-city road trip with the series opener against the Boston Red Sox (probable starters RHP Sandy Alcantara and RHP Lucas Giolito). The Marlins have a lower all-time winning percentage against the Sox (.320) than any other MLB team. They have a 47.6% chance to win Sandy's start, per FanGraphs. First pitch at 7:10 p.m. ET. 🔷 Prior to the series opener, Fish On First LIVE will preview it all beginning at 6:00 p.m. ET. FOF LIVE is presented by About The Fans. Check out our new merchandise collection (coupon code fof10 for 10% off). Marlins podcast episodes View full article
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Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the second game of Miami's road series against the Cleveland Guardians. Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) LF Kyle Stowers (L) C Agustín Ramírez 1B Liam Hicks (L) SS Otto Lopez CF Jakob Marsee (L) DH Heriberto Hernández RF Troy Johnston (L) 3B Graham Pauley (L) P Eury Pérez Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)
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The Miami Marlins quietly set an unfortunate franchise record over the weekend, and they continued to add to it on Tuesday. After the Cleveland Guardians stole two bases against them, the Marlins have now surrendered 143 total steals this season, exceeding their 2024 total of 139. They also rank dead last in the majors in caught stealing rate (11.7%). The timing and deception of a pitcher's delivery has the biggest influence on controlling the running game. Left-handers inherently have an easier time monitoring runners at first base and less than 10% of Miami's pitches this season have been thrown by lefties. Worth noting, though, Marlins opponents have been successful on 20 consecutive stolen base attempts, a streak that coincides almost perfectly with veteran catcher Nick Fortes being traded away. This shouldn't be as much of a problem in 2026 and beyond assuming southpaws Ryan Weathers and Robby Snelling are starting rotation staples and highly regarded prospect Joe Mack takes over as the club's primary backstop. In the meantime, the Marlins are on pace to allow 195 steals by season's end. That would be the most by any MLB team since the 2001 Boston Red Sox (223 SB). Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville lost, 8-4. William Kempner was thrown into the fire in his Jumbo Shrimp debut, entering with the bases loaded in a tie game in extra innings. He allowed a grand slam. Double-A Pensacola lost, 13-2. High-A Beloit lost, 4-2. Good night for Karson Milbrandt (5.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 6 K, 86 pitches/51 pitches), but the Sky Carp bullpen struggled. Aiva Arquette went 1-for-1 with two walks and a sacrifice fly. Low-A Jupiter won, 6-1. Joey Volini threw a scoreless inning of relief in his professional debut. Andrew Salas has homered in three of his last 13 games after going yard zero times in his first 72 games. DSL Marlins lost, 11-7. DSL Miami won, 10-3. Sandy Presbot became the fourth player on the team to reach 25 stolen bases this season. This was only the team's 51st game! More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 Miami's newest international amateur free agent signing is Dominican right-hander Ricardo Arredondo. The 18-year-old is listed at 6'0", 163. The latest minor leaguers to be released are right-hander Anderson Pilar and left-hander Kevin Vaupel. 🔷 Released by the Fish earlier this month, Matt Mervis and Rob Brantly signed minor league deals with the Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Yankees, respectively. 🔷 There is serious doubt about Jesús Tinoco (right forearm strain) returning this season as his body isn't responding well to throwing sessions. He's undergoing further evaluation. Tinoco was terrific after being claimed by the Marlins off waivers last summer (2.03 ERA, 2.08 FIP, .141 BAA, 3 SV in 26.2 IP). However, that didn't carry over into 2025, even before landing on the injured list in June. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, despite Shohei Ohtani blasting his National League-leading 43rd home run, the San Diego Padres have pulled even with the Los Angeles Dodgers atop the NL West standings. Pete Alonso surpassed Darryl Strawberry to become the New York Mets' all-time home run leader. The Milwaukee Brewers won their 11th consecutive game. They're on pace for 102 victories overall, which would set a new franchise record. Athletics rookie Jacob Lopez extended his scoreless streak to 24 innings. Baltimore Orioles pitchers Zach Eflin (lower back surgery) and Félix Bautista (shoulder injury) have been ruled out for the rest of the season. 🔷 Today's MLB game: the Marlins continue their three-game set against the Cleveland Guardians (probable starters RHP Eury Pérez and RHP Gavin Williams). The Guardians have won 10 of their last 12 games. The Marlins have a 42.7% chance to win, per FanGraphs. First pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. Marlins podcast episodes
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The Miami Marlins quietly set an unfortunate franchise record over the weekend, and they continued to add to it on Tuesday. After the Cleveland Guardians stole two bases against them, the Marlins have now surrendered 143 total steals this season, exceeding their 2024 total of 139. They also rank dead last in the majors in caught stealing rate (11.7%). The timing and deception of a pitcher's delivery has the biggest influence on controlling the running game. Left-handers inherently have an easier time monitoring runners at first base and less than 10% of Miami's pitches this season have been thrown by lefties. Worth noting, though, Marlins opponents have been successful on 20 consecutive stolen base attempts, a streak that coincides almost perfectly with veteran catcher Nick Fortes being traded away. This shouldn't be as much of a problem in 2026 and beyond assuming southpaws Ryan Weathers and Robby Snelling are starting rotation staples and highly regarded prospect Joe Mack takes over as the club's primary backstop. In the meantime, the Marlins are on pace to allow 195 steals by season's end. That would be the most by any MLB team since the 2001 Boston Red Sox (223 SB). Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville lost, 8-4. William Kempner was thrown into the fire in his Jumbo Shrimp debut, entering with the bases loaded in a tie game in extra innings. He allowed a grand slam. Double-A Pensacola lost, 13-2. High-A Beloit lost, 4-2. Good night for Karson Milbrandt (5.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 6 K, 86 pitches/51 pitches), but the Sky Carp bullpen struggled. Aiva Arquette went 1-for-1 with two walks and a sacrifice fly. Low-A Jupiter won, 6-1. Joey Volini threw a scoreless inning of relief in his professional debut. Andrew Salas has homered in three of his last 13 games after going yard zero times in his first 72 games. DSL Marlins lost, 11-7. DSL Miami won, 10-3. Sandy Presbot became the fourth player on the team to reach 25 stolen bases this season. This was only the team's 51st game! More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 Miami's newest international amateur free agent signing is Dominican right-hander Ricardo Arredondo. The 18-year-old is listed at 6'0", 163. The latest minor leaguers to be released are right-hander Anderson Pilar and left-hander Kevin Vaupel. 🔷 Released by the Fish earlier this month, Matt Mervis and Rob Brantly signed minor league deals with the Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Yankees, respectively. 🔷 There is serious doubt about Jesús Tinoco (right forearm strain) returning this season as his body isn't responding well to throwing sessions. He's undergoing further evaluation. Tinoco was terrific after being claimed by the Marlins off waivers last summer (2.03 ERA, 2.08 FIP, .141 BAA, 3 SV in 26.2 IP). However, that didn't carry over into 2025, even before landing on the injured list in June. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, despite Shohei Ohtani blasting his National League-leading 43rd home run, the San Diego Padres have pulled even with the Los Angeles Dodgers atop the NL West standings. Pete Alonso surpassed Darryl Strawberry to become the New York Mets' all-time home run leader. The Milwaukee Brewers won their 11th consecutive game. They're on pace for 102 victories overall, which would set a new franchise record. Athletics rookie Jacob Lopez extended his scoreless streak to 24 innings. Baltimore Orioles pitchers Zach Eflin (lower back surgery) and Félix Bautista (shoulder injury) have been ruled out for the rest of the season. 🔷 Today's MLB game: the Marlins continue their three-game set against the Cleveland Guardians (probable starters RHP Eury Pérez and RHP Gavin Williams). The Guardians have won 10 of their last 12 games. The Marlins have a 42.7% chance to win, per FanGraphs. First pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. Marlins podcast episodes View full article
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Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the first game of Miami's road series against the Cleveland Guardians. Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) C Agustín Ramírez SS Otto Lopez RF Dane Myers DH Heriberto Hernández LF Jakob Marsee (L) 1B Eric Wagaman CF Derek Hill 3B Javier Sanoja P Janson Junk Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)
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Miami Marlins 40-Man Roster Snapshot - August 12, 2025
Ely Sussman posted a gallery image in Fish On First Graphics
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Offishial News: This week's NL Wild Card rooting guide for Marlins fans
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
Needless to say, the Miami Marlins cannot afford another week like last week, or else their already-minuscule 2025 playoff odds could flatline. Even if they respond well during the rest of this road trip, they would appreciate some outside help. Here are the results that would benefit the Marlins most during the week of August 11 with respect to contending for the third wild-card spot in the National League: Root for the Atlanta Braves over the New York Mets (mid-week), then the Seattle Mariners over the Mets (weekend) Root for the Philadelphia Phillies over the Cincinnati Reds, then the Milwaukee Brewers over the Reds Root for the Colorado Rockies over the St. Louis Cardinals, then the New York Yankees over the Cardinals Root for the San Diego Padres over the San Francisco Giants, then the Tampa Bay Rays over the Giants Root for the Texas Rangers over the Arizona Diamondbacks, then the Rockies over the Diamondbacks Down on the farm, DSL Marlins won, 8-1, and clinched the DSL Southeast division. José Paulino and Albert Polanco recorded six strikeouts apiece. They rank fourth and fifth, respectively, among all Dominican Summer League pitchers in strikeouts this season. DSL Miami won, 5-1. They're a couple victories away from clinching a postseason berth of their own (as a wild card team). Joey Wiemer was named International League Player of the Week in his very first week with the Marlins organization. Wiemer went 8-for-17 with two home runs and a 307 wRC+ to propel Triple-A Jacksonville to a six-game road sweep of the Nashville Sounds. More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 Anthony Bender is due back from the paternity list prior to tonight's game. George Soriano has already been optioned to Jacksonville as the corresponding roster move. 🔷 We already know that the Marlins are going to protect Joe Mack in advance of this winter's MLB Rule 5 Draft. I highlighted seven other prospects who will also be Rule 5-eligible and potentially under consideration for roster spots. 🔷 On this day in 2015, the Marlins tied a then-franchise record by scoring 10 runs in the sixth inning vs. Boston. 🔷 The Top 100 prospect lists from Baseball America and MLB Pipeline were updated. Both lists now feature four Marlins—Thomas White (BA #21/MLB #21), Aiva Arquette (BA #32/MLB #39), Joe Mack (BA #45/MLB #76) and Robby Snelling (BA #42/MLB #80). 🔷 The Marlins are accepting applications for a new position: director of baseball data. "This role will be responsible for designing and implementing scalable, high-performance data pipelines that support analytics, player evaluation, and decision-making across Baseball Operations," the position summary reads. "The ideal candidate will have deep expertise in data engineering, cloud computing, and database technologies, along with strong leadership and project management skills." 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Tampa Bay Rays left-hander Shane McClanahan underwent season-ending surgery for a nerve issue in his arm. Due to injuries, McClanahan has not pitched in the majors since August 2, 2023. The Texas Rangers rallied from a 6-1 deficit to beat the Arizona Diamondbacks on a Jake Burger extra-inning walk-off hit. The ageless Kenley Jansen has made 21 consecutive appearances without allowing an earned run. 🔷 Today's MLB game: the Marlins begin a three-game set against the Cleveland Guardians (probable starters RHP Janson Junk and LHP Logan Allen). The Guardians have won nine of their last 11 games. Watch out for Kyle Manzardo in particular, who has a 1.140 OPS since the All-Star break. The Marlins have a 42.5% chance to win, per FanGraphs. First pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. 🔷 Prior to the series opener, Fish On First LIVE will preview it all beginning at 5:30 p.m. ET. FOF LIVE is presented by About The Fans. Check out our new merchandise collection (coupon code fof10 for 10% off). Marlins podcast episodes -
There won't be room for everybody, and that's the way Major League Baseball likes it. The purpose of the annual MLB Rule 5 Draft is to prevent organizations from hoarding talent in the minors. Players who are at least four seasons removed from being drafted out of college and five seasons removed from being drafted out of high school or signed internationally are eligible to be whisked away by other teams unless they are protected on the 40-man roster. At first glance, you may think that there are plenty of expendable pieces on the Miami Marlins' 40-man, removing the drama from this year's roster crunch. Keep in mind, however, that six injured players will have to be reinstated from the 60-day IL following the season. The "easy" decisions will get made then. The deadline to protect eligible prospects is in mid-November. Catcher Joe Mack (a 2021 amateur draft pick) is in a tier of his own—he is certain to receive a 40-man spot, with the only question being whether or not he'll make his Marlins debut before season's end. Let's update the progress of seven lesser-hyped prospects who could be considered for Rule 5 protection depending on how the rest of their 2025 campaign goes. Their current MiLB level is in parentheses. OF Andrew Pintar (AAA) Andrew Pintar slipped off of our Fish On First Top 30 list over the weekend. He's still an intriguing prospect who leads all Triple-A Jacksonville players this season in Sprint Speed and has been successful on 15 consecutive stolen base attempts. The former Arizona Diamondbacks farmhand—he was acquired in the 2024 A.J. Puk trade—plays a smooth center field. Since coming off the injured list at the start of August, Pintar has slashed .265/.375/.471. The main concern with Pintar is that he might not be able to hit right-handed pitching. He has posted a 32% strikeout rate against Triple-A righties this season. Significant improvement in that area moving forward may persuade the Marlins to select him. RHP Josh White (AAA) I could definitely see Josh White being a Marlins September call-up. All of the relievers covered below have practically the same earned run average, but White has been the most impressive of the bunch, with a 1.61 FIP that's even better than his ERA. In fact, it's the lowest FIP across all of Minor League Baseball among pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings. It doesn't get much redder than this (courtesy of Prospect Savant): White's fastball velocity (93.6 mph) is actually a tick below the average for MLB righty relievers, but his over-the-top delivery is tough to adjust to and his slider dominates batters on either side of the plate. If White is somehow left unprotected by the Marlins, he is the likeliest player here to depart in the Rule 5. RHP William Kempner (AA) Oh look, another under-the-radar Peter Bendix transaction that's paying dividends. Earlier this year, the Marlins traded $250,000 in international bonus pool money to acquire William Kempner from the San Francisco Giants. He had been injured for practically the entire 2024 season with the exception of a couple weeks in the Arizona Fall League. Kempner has stayed healthy throughout his age-24 campaign, throwing the ball better than ever as we enter the home stretch. As of this writing, he's in the midst of 12 straight scoreless appearances with only three earned runs allowed over his last 35 ⅔ innings pitched. Nobody has homered off of him since joining the Marlins org. Unlike White, Kempner releases the ball from a very low arm slot, generating a ton of horizontal break on his sweeper running away from right-handers. He uses his mid-90s sinker to get ahead in counts against lefties by stealing inside strikes. There are some similarities to the Marlins' own Anthony Bender, though Kempner's control is well below average for the time being. LHP Dale Stanavich (AAA) After overpowering lefties a season ago, Dale Stanavich actually has reverse platoon splits in 2025. He's throwing only 52% of his pitches for strikes with Jacksonville, otherwise he might have reached the majors already given the Marlins' lack of reliable southpaws. Although a 15% walk rate is obviously a red flag, Stanavich mitigates the damage by controlling the running game. No base-stealers have been successful against him all year (and only two of them were last year). TzBaeTBfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0JnY0VBQUZYQUFZQUN3Y0VBd0FIQUFjSEFBQUNWbFVBQkZNSFVsWlFCQVZXVkFCVg==.mp4 RHP Jesse Bergin (AA) Jesse Bergin was Rule 5-eligible in 2024, but there were no takers. That was understandable for a relief-only prospect with a mere three innings of experience at the High-A level. Spending the vast majority of this season in Pensacola, Bergin is reliably inducing soft contact while striking out a quarter of opposing batters. Here's a good example of how his fastball/curveball/slider arsenal works: merge-alp3qr.mp4 1B Nathan Martorella (AAA) Nathan Martorella possesses a promising combination of pull-side power and contact. It just has not been translating to much overall production since he was acquired in early 2024. In the San Diego Padres system, he had a 129 wRC+; in a near-identical sample size with the Marlins, he's down to a 95 wRC+. Additionally, it's rare for any player who is limited to first base defensively to get plucked in the major league phase of the Rule 5. For what it's worth, Martorella caught fire around this time last year with 11 homers over his final 30 games. DH Jacob Berry (AAA) Former Marlins first-rounder Jacob Berry has never come close to justifying his 2022 draft position. To his credit, this is shaping up to be his best professional season yet. If you were to generously give Berry a mulligan for the months of April and May (he is a notoriously slow starter), his slash line would be .292/.395/.458 with a 135 wRC+ and nearly as many walks as strikeouts. If he keeps that up, maybe another team rolls the dice? Berry has a willingness to play various positions. However, his glove isn't major league-caliber at any of them.
- 7 comments
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- jacob berry
- andrew pintar
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Needless to say, the Miami Marlins cannot afford another week like last week, or else their already-minuscule 2025 playoff odds could flatline. Even if they respond well during the rest of this road trip, they would appreciate some outside help. Here are the results that would benefit the Marlins most during the week of August 11 with respect to contending for the third wild-card spot in the National League: Root for the Atlanta Braves over the New York Mets (mid-week), then the Seattle Mariners over the Mets (weekend) Root for the Philadelphia Phillies over the Cincinnati Reds, then the Milwaukee Brewers over the Reds Root for the Colorado Rockies over the St. Louis Cardinals, then the New York Yankees over the Cardinals Root for the San Diego Padres over the San Francisco Giants, then the Tampa Bay Rays over the Giants Root for the Texas Rangers over the Arizona Diamondbacks, then the Rockies over the Diamondbacks Down on the farm, DSL Marlins won, 8-1, and clinched the DSL Southeast division. José Paulino and Albert Polanco recorded six strikeouts apiece. They rank fourth and fifth, respectively, among all Dominican Summer League pitchers in strikeouts this season. DSL Miami won, 5-1. They're a couple victories away from clinching a postseason berth of their own (as a wild card team). Joey Wiemer was named International League Player of the Week in his very first week with the Marlins organization. Wiemer went 8-for-17 with two home runs and a 307 wRC+ to propel Triple-A Jacksonville to a six-game road sweep of the Nashville Sounds. More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 Anthony Bender is due back from the paternity list prior to tonight's game. George Soriano has already been optioned to Jacksonville as the corresponding roster move. 🔷 We already know that the Marlins are going to protect Joe Mack in advance of this winter's MLB Rule 5 Draft. I highlighted seven other prospects who will also be Rule 5-eligible and potentially under consideration for roster spots. 🔷 On this day in 2015, the Marlins tied a then-franchise record by scoring 10 runs in the sixth inning vs. Boston. 🔷 The Top 100 prospect lists from Baseball America and MLB Pipeline were updated. Both lists now feature four Marlins—Thomas White (BA #21/MLB #21), Aiva Arquette (BA #32/MLB #39), Joe Mack (BA #45/MLB #76) and Robby Snelling (BA #42/MLB #80). 🔷 The Marlins are accepting applications for a new position: director of baseball data. "This role will be responsible for designing and implementing scalable, high-performance data pipelines that support analytics, player evaluation, and decision-making across Baseball Operations," the position summary reads. "The ideal candidate will have deep expertise in data engineering, cloud computing, and database technologies, along with strong leadership and project management skills." 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Tampa Bay Rays left-hander Shane McClanahan underwent season-ending surgery for a nerve issue in his arm. Due to injuries, McClanahan has not pitched in the majors since August 2, 2023. The Texas Rangers rallied from a 6-1 deficit to beat the Arizona Diamondbacks on a Jake Burger extra-inning walk-off hit. The ageless Kenley Jansen has made 21 consecutive appearances without allowing an earned run. 🔷 Today's MLB game: the Marlins begin a three-game set against the Cleveland Guardians (probable starters RHP Janson Junk and LHP Logan Allen). The Guardians have won nine of their last 11 games. Watch out for Kyle Manzardo in particular, who has a 1.140 OPS since the All-Star break. The Marlins have a 42.5% chance to win, per FanGraphs. First pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. 🔷 Prior to the series opener, Fish On First LIVE will preview it all beginning at 5:30 p.m. ET. FOF LIVE is presented by About The Fans. Check out our new merchandise collection (coupon code fof10 for 10% off). Marlins podcast episodes View full article
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From potential All-Star to automatic out: What happened to Dane Myers?
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
The Major League Baseball season is preposterously long. Nearly halfway through the 2025 campaign, it was not unreasonable to argue that the Dane Myers was the Miami Marlins' best all-around position player. The 29-year-old's hard work was finally paying off. The Marlins were giving Myers an opportunity to establish himself as an everyday big leaguer. June 16 was his 13th consecutive game in the starting lineup, with all but one of those appearances coming in center field. Most importantly, he was raking. Through June 16, Myers boasted a .333/.381/.481 slash line with a 142 wRC+ (42% better than league average). A right-handed batter who previously had awful production in limited opportunities against right-handed pitching, he was doing all he could to shed the "platoon guy" label. Since then, Myers has been the worst hitter in the majors (among those with at least 100 plate appearances during that span). His playing time has gradually dried up, and his only reps since the trade deadline have come in the corner outfield spots now that Jakob Marsee has taken over in CF. That slide down the defensive spectrum puts even more pressure on Myers to contribute at the plate. Less than two months ago, Myers and Kyle Stowers were seemingly in the same tier. Now, it's far more fitting to group Myers and Derek Hill together. Yikes. What the hell happened? All of the stats used below were updated entering Sunday's game. I don't like picking arbitrary endpoints to manufacture player hot streaks and slumps. In Myers' case, though, June 16 is significant. He took his 139th plate appearance of the season on that date and has taken 139 more since then, so the before/after sample sizes are identical. Also, there was an incident on June 16: Myers was hit on the left elbow by a Mick Abel fastball. He initially stayed in the game to run the bases, but was removed the next inning and sat out the following day before returning to the lineup on June 18. When a player's fortunes swing this dramatically, strikeouts are usually a factor. For Myers, not really! He had a 23.0 K% during his successful stretch, which has been followed by a 24.5 K%. The MLB average this season is a 21.9 K%. Myers was the beneficiary of some conveniently placed batted balls while he was on an All-Star-caliber pace. "Great Dane" had a .419 batting average on balls in play. Nobody has maintained that over the course of a full-length MLB season in generations. Fielders are too skilled and defensive positioning is too advanced. He could have kept playing to the best of his abilities and some regression still would've been inevitable. It works both ways. "Diminished Dane" has a .183 BABIP, which is unsustainably unlucky. If there was a real possibility of him continuing to hit this poorly, the Marlins would've already optioned him to the minor leagues. That being said, players make some of their own luck by impacting balls at ideal angles. Line drives, as they're defined by Statcast, are gold, resulting in a .631 batting average. With each passing month, Myers' line drive rate has declined. Even when Myers gets the launch angle he wants, he isn't making the same quality of contact as he previously did. His average exit velocity has plummeted from 92.6 mph to 88.3 mph. To use a pair of veteran hitters as points of reference, that's approximately the difference between Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jonathan India. The location of those batted balls has changed, too. Close your eyes and visualize a typical Dane Myers hit—it's a line drive to right-center field. There have been a lot fewer of those recently. Per Sports Info Solutions, he's gone from a 33.0% pull rate—very low by MLB standards—to 42.6%. These before/after pitch distribution breakdowns from Brooks Baseball are fascinating. It is almost like opponents were conspiring to get Myers off to a good start to the season, leaving 26.5% of all pitches in the middle third of the strike zone. That rate has dropped to 20.9%. A lot of the "mistakes" made early on are now winding up just below the zone. This 6-4-3 double play from Saturday's game is a microcosm of what's ailing him: QXc1clpfVjBZQUhRPT1fVTFkUVhGQUNVVkFBRHdjRFVnQUhDRkpTQUFOVUJnTUFWZ0FFQ1FBRkJ3SlVWVmRR.mp4 There isn't a smoking gun with Myers' mechanics. For the first couple weeks of 2025, he utilized a toe tap and stood at a relatively straight angle facing the pitcher. Ever since, throughout both the highs and lows, he's had a modest leg kick and more open stance. Perhaps modifying his approach will be the key to snapping out of this funk. Myers stays composed in two-strike situations, but he has been less productive than most of his Marlins teammates when operating ahead in the count or swinging at the first pitch. His overall swing rate on in-zone pitches has also dipped. Understanding what kind of pitches he can barrel up and specifically hunting them could lead to more hard contact. The question is whether there's enough time remaining in the season for Myers to assert himself in the Marlins' future plans. The front office is simultaneously evaluating Heriberto Hernández at the same position, who's been far more consistent offensively. Fast-healing Griffin Conine could give Miami another mouth to feed in the outfield during the final few weeks of September. A rejuvenated Joey Wiemer is suddenly on the radar as well. With right-handed-hitting prospects Kemp Alderman and Andrew Pintar likely to debut in 2026, other clubs may covet Myers more than the Marlins moving forward, potentially culminating in an offseason trade. -
One of the very few positive takeaways from the dismantling of the Miami Marlins in Atlanta was that Xavier Edwards (10-23 with 4 SB during the series) continues to be perfectly suited for the leadoff spot. That's been the case for most of the season at this point, ever since he returned from the injured list in late May and moved from shortstop to second base. He now finds himself exactly where many folks anticipated he'd be entering 2025: in the mix for the National League batting title. Entering Monday, you need five decimal places to split hairs between the batting averages of Edwards (.30528) and future Hall of Famer Freddie Freeman (.30534). Freeman leads all NL qualifiers in that category. Fellow Los Angeles Dodger Will Smith (.310) is only a few plate appearances shy of qualification. Considering Smith's unremarkable track record (career .258 BA prior to this season) and the uncertainty about him reaching the magic threshold of 502 PA, Freeman is the more serious threat to Edwards. Of course, it would be naive to count out the Senior Circuit's two-time defending batting title winner, Luis Arraez (.295). His San Diego Padres teammate, Manny Machado (.297), is wedged between Edwards and Arraez. Simply replicating what he had been doing in 2024 wasn't going to be enough for Edwards to produce like this in his first full Marlins season. According to Baseball Savant, the speedy switch-hitter was among the league's luckiest players in terms of the 76-point discrepancy between his actual and expected batting average. This year, he has trimmed his whiff rate against all pitch groups—fastball, breaking ball and offspeed—while putting balls in the air more often. I'm not quite ready to declare Edwards the favorite for the 2025 title, but he should remain in contention deep into September. Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville won, 2-1. The Jumbo Shrimp (71-42) continue to own the best record in Triple-A this season. Double-A Pensacola lost, 3-2. Starting on his birthday, Jacob Miller (4.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 5 BB, 4 K, 82 pitches/46 strikes) had his best outing since mid-June. High-A Beloit won, 6-2. Every Sky Carp position player had at least one hit. Marlins top draft pick Aiva Arquette has begun his professional baseball career on a five-game hitting streak, though with an underwhelming .227/.292/.273 slash line. Low-A Jupiter lost, 12-5. Rough day at the office for Dameivi Tineo (2.1 IP, 6 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 65 pitches/40 strikes). PJ Morlando was ejected for arguing balls and strikes. Andrew Salas became the youngest player in Marlins minor league history to steal 30 bases in a season. Our final 2025 in-season update of the Fish On First Top 30 list is now live. Unsurprisingly, Jakob Marsee was the biggest riser from the previous update in June, while Jared Serna, Dax Fulton, Carter Johnson and Victor Mesa Jr. (who's no longer ranked at all) fell significantly. More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 We just surpassed 3,000 subscribers on YouTube! Thanks so much to those of you who have contributed to our channel's growth. Subscribing is the easiest way to interact with the Fish On First panelists during our livestreams. 🔷 YouTuber "And That's Baseball" detailed the Marlins' turnaround during Peter Bendix's tenure as president of baseball operations. 🔷 Happy 17th birthday to Kevin Defrank. The Dominican right-hander ranks sixth on the FOF Top 30. Defrank has a triple-digit fastball and the potential for a plus changeup. Through nine starts in the DSL, he's posted a 2.89 ERA and 4.27 FIP in 28 innings pitched with an extreme 59.7% ground ball rate. 🔷 It's already linked at the top of the page, but I wanted to give a more explicit shoutout to @ForeverMarlins regarding this blog post on the Braves series. As a reminder, anybody who registers for an FOF account can set up their own blog! 🔷 The Prediction Time leaderboard has been updated through the first 38 series. Become a SuperSub and we'll keep track of your predictions all season long! 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the Milwaukee Brewers stormed back from a 5-0 deficit to walk off against the New York Mets. The Brewers have now won nine straight games, while the Mets have dropped seven in a row. The Colorado Rockies also endured a winless week, allowing nearly 12 runs per game. Jason Alexander, who flummoxed the Marlins in his previous start, was even better against the New York Yankees, carrying a no-hitter through 5 ⅓ innings. Jose Altuve joined José Ramírez as the only active MLB players with at least 250 home runs and 250 stolen bases in their careers. Marlins podcast episodes View full article
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Offishial News: Don't be surprised if Xavier Edwards wins NL batting title
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
One of the very few positive takeaways from the dismantling of the Miami Marlins in Atlanta was that Xavier Edwards (10-23 with 4 SB during the series) continues to be perfectly suited for the leadoff spot. That's been the case for most of the season at this point, ever since he returned from the injured list in late May and moved from shortstop to second base. He now finds himself exactly where many folks anticipated he'd be entering 2025: in the mix for the National League batting title. Entering Monday, you need five decimal places to split hairs between the batting averages of Edwards (.30528) and future Hall of Famer Freddie Freeman (.30534). Freeman leads all NL qualifiers in that category. Fellow Los Angeles Dodger Will Smith (.310) is only a few plate appearances shy of qualification. Considering Smith's unremarkable track record (career .258 BA prior to this season) and the uncertainty about him reaching the magic threshold of 502 PA, Freeman is the more serious threat to Edwards. Of course, it would be naive to count out the Senior Circuit's two-time defending batting title winner, Luis Arraez (.295). His San Diego Padres teammate, Manny Machado (.297), is wedged between Edwards and Arraez. Simply replicating what he had been doing in 2024 wasn't going to be enough for Edwards to produce like this in his first full Marlins season. According to Baseball Savant, the speedy switch-hitter was among the league's luckiest players in terms of the 76-point discrepancy between his actual and expected batting average. This year, he has trimmed his whiff rate against all pitch groups—fastball, breaking ball and offspeed—while putting balls in the air more often. I'm not quite ready to declare Edwards the favorite for the 2025 title, but he should remain in contention deep into September. Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville won, 2-1. The Jumbo Shrimp (71-42) continue to own the best record in Triple-A this season. Double-A Pensacola lost, 3-2. Starting on his birthday, Jacob Miller (4.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 5 BB, 4 K, 82 pitches/46 strikes) had his best outing since mid-June. High-A Beloit won, 6-2. Every Sky Carp position player had at least one hit. Marlins top draft pick Aiva Arquette has begun his professional baseball career on a five-game hitting streak, though with an underwhelming .227/.292/.273 slash line. Low-A Jupiter lost, 12-5. Rough day at the office for Dameivi Tineo (2.1 IP, 6 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 65 pitches/40 strikes). PJ Morlando was ejected for arguing balls and strikes. Andrew Salas became the youngest player in Marlins minor league history to steal 30 bases in a season. Our final 2025 in-season update of the Fish On First Top 30 list is now live. Unsurprisingly, Jakob Marsee was the biggest riser from the previous update in June, while Jared Serna, Dax Fulton, Carter Johnson and Victor Mesa Jr. (who's no longer ranked at all) fell significantly. More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 We just surpassed 3,000 subscribers on YouTube! Thanks so much to those of you who have contributed to our channel's growth. Subscribing is the easiest way to interact with the Fish On First panelists during our livestreams. 🔷 YouTuber "And That's Baseball" detailed the Marlins' turnaround during Peter Bendix's tenure as president of baseball operations. 🔷 Happy 17th birthday to Kevin Defrank. The Dominican right-hander ranks sixth on the FOF Top 30. Defrank has a triple-digit fastball and the potential for a plus changeup. Through nine starts in the DSL, he's posted a 2.89 ERA and 4.27 FIP in 28 innings pitched with an extreme 59.7% ground ball rate. 🔷 It's already linked at the top of the page, but I wanted to give a more explicit shoutout to @ForeverMarlins regarding this blog post on the Braves series. As a reminder, anybody who registers for an FOF account can set up their own blog! 🔷 The Prediction Time leaderboard has been updated through the first 38 series. Become a SuperSub and we'll keep track of your predictions all season long! 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the Milwaukee Brewers stormed back from a 5-0 deficit to walk off against the New York Mets. The Brewers have now won nine straight games, while the Mets have dropped seven in a row. The Colorado Rockies also endured a winless week, allowing nearly 12 runs per game. Jason Alexander, who flummoxed the Marlins in his previous start, was even better against the New York Yankees, carrying a no-hitter through 5 ⅓ innings. Jose Altuve joined José Ramírez as the only active MLB players with at least 250 home runs and 250 stolen bases in their careers. Marlins podcast episodes -
From Rockies Rock Bottom to the Truist Park Reality Check: Where the 2025 Marlins Stand
Ely Sussman commented on ForeverMarlins's blog entry in Forever, Marlins
Found myself agreeing with every bit of this. Appropriately critical yet completely level-headed. Thanks a lot for posting!- 3 comments
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- 2025 mlb season
- peter bendix
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Marlins vs. Braves series preview & predictions
Ely Sussman replied to Fish On First Staff's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
An excerpt from my post here, in case you haven't gotten to it: "Snelling does not have any professional experience pitching on four days' rest. That box almost always gets checked before a prospect is plugged into a regular MLB rotation spot, so if his next outing comes on Tuesday, we're officially on call-up watch." -
Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the fifth and final game of Miami's road series against the Atlanta Braves. Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) RF Heriberto. Hernández DH Kyle Stowers (L) SS Otto Lopez LF Dane Myers 1B Eric Wagaman CF Derek Hill C Liam Hicks (L) 3B Javier Sanoja P Cal Quantrill Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)
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Fish On First Top 30 - August 2025 Update
Ely Sussman posted a gallery image in Fish On First Graphics
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- thomas white
- joe mack
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Marlins out-managed by Braves in doubleheader sweep
Ely Sussman posted a topic in Miami Marlins Talk
Entering this week, the National League Manager of the Year hype had begun to build around Clayton McCullough. The Miami Marlins have lost five of their seven games since then, with the latest double debacle underscoring why McCullough wasn't a true contender for that award in the first place. The Marlins were defeated twice by a non-competitive Atlanta Braves club on Saturday, in large part because they didn't fully utilize the talent on their roster in late-and-close situations. Game 1 (MIA 1, ATL 7) Hurston Waldrep pitched extremely well for the Braves in his previous outing at the inaugural Speedway Classic. This start was more of the same (6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 89 pitches/61 strikes). Waldrep kept the Marlins off balance with his six-pitch mix and his splitter was especially sharp. Only a handful of balls even escaped the infield against the rookie right-hander and Jurickson Profar bailed him out of his biggest mistake. Agustín Ramírez crushed a fly ball to left field that seemed destined to be a solo home run, but Profar scaled the wall with perfect timing to make the catch. zxn4wh_1.mp4 Serving as the Marlins' 27th man for this doubleheader, Ryan Gusto looked solid in his debut with the club (6.0 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 98 pitches/67 strikes). Gusto's four-seam fastball was his best swing-and-miss pitch. He allowed only five total hard-hit balls, as defined by Baseball Savant. The Braves' hottest bat entering this series, Michael Harris II continues to turn his season around. His double off of Gusto in the bottom of the second inning ignited a two-run rally. But don't let the lopsided final score fool you: the Marlins were very much alive deep into the game. Trailing 3-1 in the top of the seventh inning, the potential tying runs were on first and second with nobody out. Dane Myers has slumped more severely lately than any other Marlins hitter, particularly versus right-handed pitching, yet Clayton McCullough stuck with him against Pierce Johnson. Myers grounded into a deflating double play. While it's true that McCullough's only pinch-hitting options were also righties, letting Myers take that plate appearance and swing away in that scenario (as opposed to attempting a sacrifice bunt) was a blatant mistake. The Marlins failed to score in the inning. The red-hot Harris then put the game out of reach. In relief of Gusto, George Soriano was inexplicably called upon to keep the deficit manageable, and he predictably stumbled. Harris was gifted a center-cut 0-2 fastball and drilled a three-run homer that made it 7-1 Atlanta. Soriano has surrendered seven long balls in 21 ⅓ innings pitched for the Fish in 2025. Signed by Miami a decade ago as an international free agent, it's getting very difficult to imagine his tenure lasting beyond this year. Newly promoted from Jacksonville—filling in for Anthony Bender, who's been placed on the paternity list—righty Tyler Zuber made quick work of the Braves in the bottom of the eighth. Cool milestone: first base umpire Jen Pawol became the first woman to ump an MLB regular season game. Here is a compilation of the plays she was responsible for calling. Game 2 (MIA 6, ATL 8) I was in disbelief watching the nightcap. Somehow, the game was scoreless through the first three innings despite extremely poor pitch execution from both Sandy Alcantara and Erick Fedde. They plainly "didn't have it." Well, two innings later, there were nine runs on the board, the majority of those scored by the team that has nothing left to play for. The Marlins seized a 4-0 advantage in the top of the fourth inning. Marcell Ozuna answered back with a majestic solo shot. Alcantara's lack of command was reminiscent of his rusty April/May self (he walked old friend Vidal Bruján twice). It took a fortuitous ground ball double play for him to escape the frame without yielding more damage. Even with Bender unavailable, McCullough had four relatively trustworthy relievers—Ronny Henriquez, Tyler Phillips, Lake Bachar and Calvin Faucher—to navigate the rest of the game. It was irrational to expect Alcantara to suddenly "settle in" given the evidence in front of us. Up 4-1, Alcantara led off the fifth inning by striking out light-hitting No. 9 hitter Nick Allen. Once the lineup flipped over, though, things collapsed in a hurry, and McCullough was too complacent. Jurickson Profar single. Matt Olson walk. Drake Baldwin RBI single. Ozuna go-ahead, three-run homer. 0ad0eee5-343975fb-325f8d59-csvm-diamondgcp-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 Alcantara, to his credit, stopped the bleeding and kept the game at 5-4. Facing a Braves team that has repeatedly choked under similar circumstances this season, the door was still open to salvage a doubleheader split, even after the Marlins went down quietly in the top of the sixth. First man out of the 'pen to relieve Sandy? Not Henriquez...nor Phillips...nor Bachar...nor Faucher. Valente Bellozo, huh? McCullough got too cute, thinking that practically any right-hander would be able to put up a zero against the soft bottom of the Braves order. Instead, both Bruján and Luke Williams reached base safely, Allen bunted them over, and Olson and Baldwin delivered the all-important insurance runs to make it 8-4. The Fish did indeed keep fighting, but it was too little, too late. Another awesome Jakob Marsee game (2-2, RBI, 2 BB, 3 SB) went to waste. The Marlins are the first road team since the New York Mets (June 16-18) to lose a series at Truist Park. It's entirely possible that the Marlins would've gone winless on Saturday even with a pinch-hitter for Myers, a shorter leash on Alcantara and more reliable arms used in place of Soriano and Bellozo. All McCullough can do is put his players in position to be successful. He disappointed in that regard this time. The Marlins head into Sunday's series finale trailing the Mets by six games for the final NL wild-card spot. Cal Quantrill looks to shake off his awful performance from earlier in the week (4.1 IP, 7 ER vs. HOU). Left-hander Joey Wentz starts for the Braves. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. View full article- 3 replies
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- ryan gusto
- george soriano
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