Ely Sussman

The Miami Marlins need to get this right. They did on December 14, 2017, shipping Marcell Ozuna to the St. Louis Cardinals for a package headlined by Sandy Alcantara. Things have come full circle—leading up to next Thursday's MLB trade deadline, the Fish will be listening intently as suitors inquire about Alcantara. What should the Marlins do with the revered right-hander? It depends on the following factors. Who could you get in return? Alcantara is under club control through the 2027 season, content with living in South Florida and proud to serve as a veteran presence on a very young team. There is zero pressure on the Marlins to trade him now unless they deem it to be an efficient baseball move. There really isn't any precedent for a pitcher with such poor recent results getting traded for a rich prospect haul. On the other hand, front office thinking has rapidly evolved. Alcantara's appalling 6.66 ERA this year is not a deal-breaker. Opposing teams are unbothered by how much the Marlins have struggled to prevent runs with him on the mound—it's solely about what they forecast him to do moving forward with their own infrastructure. Therefore, his 4.48 FIP and 5.00 xERA are more relevant to his valuation, and the Marlins can point to how much his control has improved since the beginning of June, which has dropped his FIP to 3.60 over his last nine starts. The dream scenario would be emulating the 2017 José Quintana trade in which the Chicago White Sox acquired both Eloy Jiménez and Dylan Cease from the Cubs (along with two lesser prospects) despite the durable Quintana being in the midst of an uneven season. The Marlins simply wouldn't be able to refuse upside like that—Jiménez and Cease were considered 60-grade and 55-grade prospects, respectively. But what if Alcantara only entices offers akin to last winter's Jesús Luzardo deal? The Marlins made a bold bet on Starlyn Caba, a far-from-the-majors, defense-first, 55-grade talent. That should be the bare minimum they consider taking back for a former Cy Young Award winner who has established he's healthy again. The risk of standing pat There is more to Alcantara's ineffectiveness than bad luck and a small sample size. He has allowed more hard contact and induced fewer swinging strikes than ever before. Also, pitcher health is notoriously unpredictable. There are countless examples of guys who had "workhorse" reputations in their 20s, only to fade fast in their 30s (Sandy turns 30 in September). I laid out the "dream scenario" above. What about the worst-case scenario: Are the Marlins prepared to potentially get nothing in return for Alcantara? Externally, their farm system quality is regarded as above-average, but not elite. There is sufficient interest in Alcantara to make a deal prior to the deadline that significantly closes that gap. It would be irresponsible to assume that will still be the case next offseason. We simply don't know what the rest of the 2025 holds for him. What is the Marlins' window of contention? The Marlins have been a genuinely competitive team since Eury Pérez rejoined their starting rotation—they have the fourth-best record in MLB during that span (.632 winning percentage). But can they sustain that elite play for the remainder of the season? That's literally what it would take to maybe sneak into October with 87 wins. There is an important distinction between being competitive and being contenders. The Marlins would need to leapfrog five National League teams to qualify for October baseball, and most of those teams will be upgrading their personnel prior to the deadline. Aside from Alcantara, you can count on one hand the number of players on this roster who have even experienced a full-length season at the major league level. Accounting for their brief and spotty track records and the club's minus-54 run differential, both FanGraphs and PECOTA currently estimate Miami's playoff odds at less than 1%. A potential Detroit Tigers-esque run this year is so improbable, it isn't part of the Alcantara trade calculus. This is about how the organization views 2026. Integrating top prospects Joe Mack and Jakob Marsee should elevate their defense, and you could be looking at the deepest rotation in the league with the additions of Thomas White and Robby Snelling. With Alcantara still in the fold and the investment in a veteran corner infielder, maybe that would be enough to win consistently from the get-go. How would you reallocate Alcantara's money? It's fair to wonder if the Marlins would be fine relying on a combination of Eury Pérez, Edward Cabrera, Ryan Weathers, Braxton Garrett, Janson Junk, Max Meyer, Adam Mazur, Robby Snelling, Thomas White and Valente Bellozo to start games for them next season. All of their 2026 salaries combined would be less than the $17.3 million that Alcantara is guaranteed. "A little spending could go a long way" to supplement those young arms, as Aram Leighton of Just Baseball wrote last week. An Alcantara trade is unacceptable unless every cent he was owed (and then some) goes toward reinforcing other areas of the Marlins roster. Given the franchise's low hit rate on free agents, perhaps that money facilitates contract extensions or veteran trade acquisitions instead. President of baseball operations Peter Bendix must have a plan for this and the cooperation of principal owner Bruce Sherman beforehand. How would you explain it to the fanbase? Bendix's biggest issue since taking over the Marlins front office has been public messaging. He has asked for fans to trust him without divulging the specifics of his long-term strategy. He has inflated expectations for newly acquired players while showing little affection toward those who have already produced at the highest level. Bendix has traded popular Marlins before, but this is different. Alcantara peaked as the best pitcher in the world and his name is near the top of numerous all-time franchise leaderboards. While it was clear in 2024 that a shake-up was needed, the Fish are firing on all cylinders as this year's deadline approaches. Trading Alcantara multiple years in advance of free agency to a team with championship ambitions and only getting back players with little-to-no MLB experience—that would be challenging to navigate. Sherman's cheapness is inexcusable, but the reality is that the Marlins are struggling to keep up with most other organizations in terms of local revenue. The baseball ops department is partially responsible—through their actions and explanations—for motivating people to spend on their fandom (season ticket plans, merchandise, etc.). If Bendix pulls the trigger on this, some uncharacteristic transparency could go a long way. View full article

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the third and final game of Miami's home series against the San Diego Padres. Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) RF Jesús Sánchez (L) SS Otto Lopez LF Kyle Stowers (L) DH Agustín Ramírez 1B Liam Hicks (L) C Nick Fortes 3B Graham Pauley (L) CF Javier Sanoja P Sandy Alcantara Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

The Miami Marlins aren't going to part with him easily, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports, but starting center fielder Dane Myers is a potential trade candidate leading up to next Thursday's deadline. Contending teams have shown interest in the toolsy 29-year-old. From Opening Day through mid-June, Myers was the best all-around player on the Marlins. Even in the midst of a deep slump at the plate, his .264/.309/.355 slash line this season is comparable to what he posted as a part-time player from 2023-24. In line with his career norms, he continues to have large platoon splits (146 wRC+ vs. LHP, 55 wRC+ vs. RHP). Myers has been excellent defensively, accruing seven defensive runs saved, four outs above average and seven outfield assists (tied for fifth among MLB outfielders). He's been Miami's starting center fielder in 53 of their first 100 games. Gifted with plus speed, he was also responsible for arguably the consequential baserunning play of this Marlins season. Rosenthal describes Triple-A Jacksonville standout Jakob Marsee as a "potential replacement" for Myers. I wrote recently about Marsee sliding into Jesús Sánchez's role in the event of a trade, and still think that is the more likely outcome with Sánchez being two years closer to free agency than Myers is. View full rumor

The MLB trade deadline is eight days away. Here's how the Miami Marlins' main trade chips did in Tuesday's win. Edward Cabrera (5.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, 86 pitches/56 strikes) put his elbow injury scare behind him and picked up his fourth W of the season. Jesús Sánchez went 1-for-4 with two batted balls that had 110 mph exit velocities. Anthony Bender retired the side in order in the eighth inning. It was his 12th consecutive scoreless appearance, lowering his ERA to 1.91. Going a bit deeper on Bender, his value probably is not as high as his career-best run-prevention numbers would suggest. His FIP (3.80) is doubled his ERA as he's striking out both right-handed and left-handed batters less than 20% of the time. Bender has been allowing more hard-hit balls than he did in any previous season, yet his .186 batting average on balls in play is second-lowest among all qualified MLB relievers. I could see Bender drawing interest from the Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies and Texas Rangers, among others. Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville won, 8-4. Deyvison De Los Santos, Maximo Acosta and Matt Mervis each homered. Double-A Pensacola won, 6-4. The Blue Wahoos were scoreless until Ryan Ignoffo hit a two-run triple with two outs in the top of the ninth inning. Kemp Alderman returned from a two-week absence by going 1-for-4. The only run allowed by starter Alex Williams was unearned. Williams quietly has a 1.83 ERA in 39 ⅓ innings since being promoted to Pensacola. High-A Beloit lost, 7-4. Wilfredo Lara has had back-to-back three-hit games and is slashing .353/.400/.559 in July. FCL Marlins lost, 7-3. Grant Shepardson finished the complex league season with a 3.67 ERA and 47 strikeouts in 41 ⅔ innings pitched. DSL Marlins won, 9-1. Luis Porfirio, Alejandro De La Cruz and Albert Ortiz combined to throw a no-hitter! The Marlins stole nine bases, including four for Luis Cova and three for Almen Tolentino. DSL Miami won, 10-3. Pedro Montero (3.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 2 K) lowered his ERA to 1.19. More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 Derek Hill (left middle finger sprain) has been placed on the injured list for the third time this season. Jack Winkler was recalled from Jacksonville to fill out the active roster, but he'll rarely play, as we saw during his previous stint in the majors. Heriberto Hernandez is the main beneficiary of Hill's absence—Hernandez has started three straight games. 🔷 Kevin Barral interviewed several of the 2025 Marlins draftees during their visit to loanDepot park on Monday. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the Milwaukee Brewers' 11-game winning streak was snapped by the Seattle Mariners. Cal Raleigh's solo homer accounted for the only run of the game. Old friend Tanner Scott was placed on the 15-day IL with left elbow inflammation. The Los Angeles Dodgers closer has a 4.14 ERA, 4.03 FIP and MLB-leading seven blown saves this season. 🔷 Today's MLB game: it is a getaway day matinee between the Marlins and San Diego Padres (probable starters RHP Sandy Alcantara and RHP Dylan Cease). Final game in Miami before the trade deadline. Alcantara will be looking to avenge his May 28 stinker in San Diego where he allowed six runs (all earned) and failed to record a single strikeout. The Marlins have a 45.9% chance to win, per FanGraphs. First pitch at 12:10 p.m. ET. Marlins podcast episodes View full article

The Chicago Cubs had a scouting presence at loanDepot park on Tuesday night to get a first-hand look at Miami Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera, according to Matt Cozzi of Locked On Cubs. Fish On First can confirm the report. The Cubs are certain to be buyers leading up to the July 31 MLB trade deadline. They entered the day with 95.2% playoff odds, per FanGraphs, occupying the National League's top wild-card spot and only one game behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the NL Central lead. Their rotation is anchored by Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga, but outside of them, they're lacking clear playoff-caliber starters. Facing a deep San Diego Padres lineup, Cabrera continued to impress, just as he has for the majority of 2025 (5.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, 86 pitches/56 strikes). Coming off an elbow injury scare before the All-Star break, the 27-year-old's velocity was slightly up on all of his pitches relative to his full-season averages. 1130dc9a-0fbabcf3-b6292a2d-csvm-diamondgcp-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 Through 88 innings pitched this season, Cabrera has a 3.48 ERA and 3.56 FIP. He is in his first year of arbitration and under club control through 2028. Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN estimate that there's only a 30% chance of him being moved this summer. Cabrera is projected to pitch one more time before the deadline during Miami's upcoming road series in St. Louis. View full rumor

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the second game of Miami's home series against the San Diego Padres. Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) RF Jesús Sánchez (L) SS Otto Lopez C Agustín Ramírez DH Kyle Stowers (L) LF Heriberto Hernandez 1B Eric Wagaman 3B Graham Pauley (L) CF Dane Myers P Edward Cabrera Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

The historical trend of deadline overpays is undeniable, yes. I still would be shocked if Sanchy is being valued that way right now. He would be a modest upgrade for a handful of teams, but the overall upside isn't too compelling when he is an automatic out vs. lefties. It's also a player profile that frequently gets non-tendered before their final year of arbitration because of the large supply of platoon corner outfielders, so I'm treating him like somebody with 1.5 years of control.

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the first game of Miami's home series against the San Diego Padres. Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) RF Jesús Sánchez (L) SS Otto Lopez C Agustín Ramírez LF Kyle Stowers (L) 1B Liam Hicks (L) DH Heriberto Hernandez 3B Graham Pauley (L) CF Dane Myers P Eury Pérez Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

Miami Marlins ownership has deservedly taken flak for their cheapness. No MLB team is investing less in player payroll this season. To be fair, there historically has been a weak correlation between the Marlins' payroll and on-field success. Particularly since Bruce Sherman took over as principal owner, his baseball decision-makers have repeatedly whiffed in their attempts to supplement the roster via major league free agent signings, with those veterans often performing worse than in-house alternatives. For $3.5 million, Cal Quantrill has been usable. That's enough to clear the extremely low bar set by his predecessors. First and foremost, the Marlins were counting on Quantrill to be durable—that became even more important after Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers suffered spring training injuries. His availability has been immaculate, making 19 straight starts without injuries or other interruptions to his throwing schedule. The team has won more of his starts (11) than anybody else's this season. Following Saturday's scoreless outing, Quantrill has posted a 5.24 ERA, 4.23 FIP and .281 BAA in 87 ⅔ innings pitched. He's been underwhelming overall from a run prevention standpoint, though his deepest struggles were early in the season; in 13 starts since the beginning of May, his ERA is 3.98. 57739b3b-faac3dcb-2abecdd4-csvm-diamondgcp-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 Quantrill was inexpensive to sign in the first place because his control deteriorated with the Colorado Rockies in 2024, ranking in the 19th percentile among MLB pitchers in walk rate. The veteran right-hander has bounced back to the 77th percentile in that category. Quantrill still has obvious limitations. His effectiveness plummets when facing a lineup for the third time and he's getting hit hard by same-handed batters. However, looking back at other free agent pitchers who signed for comparable money, the Fish have gotten solid bang for their buck. As a refresher, Tim Anderson ($5 million guaranteed) was the lone major league FA signing made by Miami during the 2023-24 offseason. He was arguably the worst player in the league prior to getting released midway through the summer. The year before that, the Marlins made a stunning run to the postseason despite the regretful deals bestowed upon Johnny Cueto ($8.5 million) and Jean Segura ($17 million). Cueto was buried on the bench by the time October arrived, while Segura departed in a salary dump long before that. When's the last time that the Marlins were truly content with one of their free agent acquisitions? Maybe Jorge Soler? Expectations were much higher for the reigning World Series MVP, hence the three-year, $36 million contract terms. He missed half of the 2022 campaign due to injury, then rebounded to All-Star status in 2023 while swatting 36 home runs. He was productive enough to opt out of the deal's final season and get paid even more by the San Francisco Giants. Quantrill has more in common with Adam Duvall and Anthony Bass, both of whom received $5 million guarantees entering the 2021 season. Duvall and Bass were later traded in deadline deals when it turned out that the Marlins weren't ready to contend themselves. Quantrill is peaking at the perfect time as the 2025 deadline looms next week. If the Marlins are able to extract at least a 40-grade prospect in exchange for him, that would be a satisfactory outcome. View full article

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the third and final game of Miami's home series against the Kansas City Royals. Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) C Agustín Ramírez SS Otto Lopez 1B Eric Wagaman LF Kyle Stowers (L) DH Heriberto Hernandez CF Dane Myers RF Jesús Sánchez (L) 3B Javier Sanoja P Janson Junk Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)