Ely Sussman

All Fish On First podcasts are brought to you by Jet Ski Rentals of South Florida—offering Miami’s best jet ski and boat adventures. With six jet ski locations and over 120 boats, there’s something for every style and every budget. With Christmas and New Year’s around the corner, boats fill up fast—everyone wants that view of the fireworks from the water. They’re reservation-based only. To inquire, call 305-990-2192, or check them out online at SFJetskiRentals.com. In his first solo podcast of the 2025-26 Miami Marlins offseason, Ely Sussman begins by analyzing Clayton McCullough's comments about Connor Norby preparing to play the outfield and Griffin Conine learning first base. Then, he reacts to Ryan Helsley and Devin Williams signing free agent contracts, and makes the case that Emilio Pagán may be the best option left on the reliever market for the Marlins. You can find The Offishial Show on the Fish On First YouTube channel, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever else you get your pods. Our audio programming also includes Fish On First LIVE, Fish Unfiltered, Swimming Upstream and more. Pagán served as primary closer for the Cincinnati Reds in 2025. He struck out 30.0% of all batters faced across 68 ⅔ innings pitched and finished the season on a particularly high note with 10 consecutive scoreless appearances. About to enter his age-35 season, Pagán has had only one extended injured list stint during his professional career—a right lat strain in 2024. Thanks to a splitter that has progressively spun less and added vertical break, Pagán dominated left-handed batters last season. The pitch accrued plus-six run value, per Baseball Savant, generating an ideal mix of whiffs and soft contact. Swim Around the Diamond At the end of every episode of The Offishial Show, I will be highlighting and recommending Marlins-related content that was posted recently outside of FOF. Here's what I picked this time: Aram Leighton's top 15 Marlins prospects (Just Baseball) 2026 ZiPS Projections: Miami Marlins (FanGraphs) WBC-style rosters comprised of current/former Marlins players (Son Los Marlins) Inside Major League Baseball's fan council featuring SuperSub Ryan Schlesinger (The Athletic) Follow Ely (@RealEly) and Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) on Twitter. Join the Marlins Discord server! Complete Miami Marlins coverage here at FishOnFirst.com. View full article

On The Offishial Show, Ely Sussman provides context behind the amusing idea that the Marlins could use outfielder Griffin Conine at first base in the future. View full video

The realistic best-case scenario did not materialize for the Miami Marlins. They were hopeful that Devin Williams would be available at a sharply discounted rate coming off a career-worst 4.79 ERA in 2025. Alas, the market coveted his elite swing-and-miss ability and the New York Mets ultimately won the bidding with a three-year, $51 million deal. Who's still out there for the Marlins? We have to assume that former Met Edwin Díaz is out of their price range as he reportedly expects something in the five-year, $100 million range. These are the other MLB free agents who were primarily used as closers last season: RHP Robert Suarez (2.97 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 27.9 K%, 3.16 WPA, 40 SV in 69.2 IP) RHP Pete Fairbanks (2.83 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 24.2 K%, 0.93 WPA, 27 SV in 60.1 IP) RHP Kyle Finnegan (3.47 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 24.0 K%, 0.84 WPA, 24 SV in 57.0 IP) RHP Emilio Pagán (2.88 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 30.0 K%, 1.09 WPA, 32 SV in 68.2 IP) RHP Kenley Jansen (2.59 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 24.4 K%, 3.46 WPA, 29 SV in 59.0 IP) The Marlins specifically have a dearth of reliable left-handers on their current bullpen depth chart. Although less likely to be used consistently in the ninth inning, that could make the likes of Danny Coulombe, Drew Pomeranz, Caleb Ferguson, Gregory Soto, Caleb Thielbar, Andrew Chafin and Hoby Milner appealing on short-term contracts. View full rumor

Too often, the evaluation of a baseball prospect fluctuates dramatically based on their most recent season. Fish On First is occasionally guilty of this, with Miami Marlins first baseman Deyvison De Los Santos being a prime example. At this time a year ago, De Los Santos ranked third on the FOF Top 30 as Minor League Baseball's reigning home run king. Currently, fresh off a disappointing season at Triple-A, he is ranked 23rd. That's in large part because his surface-level production cratered, from 40 homers and a 127 wRC+ in 2024 to 12 homers and an 84 wRC+ in 2025. But under the hood, nothing about De Los Santos' player profile fundamentally changed. He possesses plus-plus power—in both seasons, his 90th-percentile exit velocity was 108 mph (for reference, Agustín Ramírez is at 109 mph). His chase rate against Triple-A pitching actually improved from 45.0% to 35.0%, though that is still a concerningly high figure. It's been obvious throughout this period that first base will be his long-term defensive home. Despite shattering his previous career-high with 16 stolen bases in 2025, he remains a below-average runner by MLB standards. De Los Santos did not do enough to earn a call-up from the Marlins last season. He also did not disqualify himself as a potential reinforcement further down the road. He's only 22 years old! Between a quad injury and travel issues, De Los Santos had fewer MiLB reps than hoped (106 games in AAA). He is compensating for that now in the Dominican Winter League (LIDOM), where he's been starring for Gigantes del Cibao. De Los Santos enters Monday ranked fourth among all qualified LIDOM hitters in both batting average (.351) and OPS (.892). He is in the midst of a 16-game on-base streak. Every single pitcher he's faced is older than him and more than half of his plate appearances have come against guys who have MLB experience. It has been a mixed bag for De Los Santos from a plate discipline standpoint. He has drawn only three walks through a full month of action and he occasionally gives away strikes at times by blindly guessing in favorable counts and swinging over the top of breaking balls. On the other hand, it's encouraging to see him dial back his aggressiveness, offering at 30% of first pitches (roughly MLB average). With few exceptions, the arms who have elite stuff and command are resting at this time of year. There's only so much that De Los Santos can "prove" about himself against this quality of competition. The correlation between LIDOM run production and big league readiness is practically non-existent, as detailed in the table below. OPS Rank 2020-21 LIDOM Season 2021-22 LIDOM Season 2022-23 LIDOM Season 2023-24 LIDOM Season 2024-25 LIDOM Season 1 Ronald Guzmán Junior Lake Henry Urrutia Ronny Simón J.C. Escarra 2 Joe Dunand Leody Taveras Ronny Mauricio Franmil Reyes Aderlin Rodríguez 3 Yamaico Navarro Hanser Alberto Aneury Tavárez Mel Rojas Jr. Jerar Encarnación 4 Junior Lake Sócrates Brito Ramón Hernández Héctor Rodríguez Sergio Alcántara 5 Jeremy Peña Zoilo Almonte Rainer Nuñez Starlin Castro Erick Mejía Total MLB fWAR in 2021 Total MLB fWAR in 2022 Total MLB fWAR in 2023 Total MLB fWAR in 2024 Total MLB fWAR in 2025 -0.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.5 The Marlins are exploring opportunities to acquire a veteran first baseman, but they don't feel obligated to do so if the value isn't reasonable. FOF's Isaac Azout and Kevin Barral report that they could patch things together with a combination of internal options such as Eric Wagaman, Connor Norby, Graham Pauley and Liam Hicks. Even if De Los Santos homered on a daily basis for the rest of the LIDOM season, the Marlins would still plan on sending him back down to Jacksonville to validate that he has turned a corner. I have been pounding the drum as much as anybody for the Marlins to invest in their roster and first base was a glaring weakness for the Fish last year. That being said, they should be setting the bar very high and/or prioritizing first basemen with the flexibility to play additional positions. De Los Santos is a fascinating depth piece for 2026 who shouldn't be ignored. If the Marlins have to block his path to the majors because they've added one of MLB's best bats via trade or free agency, that'd be wonderful, but don't spend money for the sake of spending money and bury him on the depth chart behind a low-probability bounce-back candidate. View full article

On Sunday in winter ball, Deyvison De Los Santos (Dominican Republic) went 2-for-4. Jared Serna (Mexico) went 2-for-4 with a home run and he continues to lead his league with a .978 OPS. Jacob Berry went 1-for-3 with two walks and a stolen base in his first Puerto Rican Winter League start. His Leones de Ponce teammate, Orlando Ortiz-Mayr, fared well in a no-decision (4.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K). Only 115 days away from Marlins Opening Day. 🔷 This teal Marlins Starter jacket is the best item of clothing I own. Totally unprompted, friends, family and even strangers compliment me whenever I wear it in public. Through the end of tonight, you have the opportunity to get it at Homage for just $125, which is $40 less than what I paid for mine. You're welcome! Also a reminder that you can save 10% on all Fish On First merch purchases at About The Fans by using coupon code FOF10 at checkout. 🔷 Baseball executives and media will converge on Orlando, Florida, for the Winter Meetings beginning this Sunday night. Our own Isaac Azout and Kevin Barral preview the event from the Marlins' perspective. 🔷 Even with a late start to his winter ball season, Deyvison De Los Santos has been one of LIDOM's most productive hitters. I wrote about how his encouraging performance adds a wrinkle to the club's ongoing search for a first baseman. 🔷 On this day four years ago, the Marlins held a joint press conference to celebrate Sandy Alcantara's contract extension (5-YR/$56M) and Avisaíl García's free agent signing (4-YR/$53M). Needless to say, they'd like a re-do on one of those moves. 🔷 On the Baseball Wives Club, Otto Lopez's wife, Marle Vásquez, discussed how the couple met and what it's like navigating the chaotic world of professional baseball while also raising an infant (their daughter Amelia is 17 months old). 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Ryan Helsley and the Baltimore Orioles agreed to a two-year, $28 million deal. The price turned out to be a bit steeper than I projected entering this offseason, but I still think he would've been the ideal reliever addition for the Marlins when accounting for the short-term commitment and his immense potential upside. View full article

Three months removed from suffering a right lat strain, Tyler Zuber is officially back with the Miami Marlins organization on a minor league deal. He will be at spring training as a non-roster invitee. The 30-year-old right-hander had horrible surface-level stats with the Marlins and New York Mets in 2025 (11.25 ERA, 23.7 K% and .327 BAA in 12.0 IP). But perhaps Miami is intrigued by the depth of his pitch mix—he used a sweeper, four-seam fastball, slider, sinker, changeup and cutter during that small sample. If only Zuber were getting ahead in the count more frequently, his variety of pitches could make him a tough matchup. He's very likely to begin next season with Triple-A Jacksonville. On Thursday in winter ball, Jared Serna (Mexico) went 0-for-4. On Friday in winter ball—playing in Australia, which is 16 hours ahead of us on the east coast of the United States—Eric Rataczak went 2-for-5 with a clutch home run. The Sydney Blue Sox starting first baseman raised his OPS to .898. yy4v3k_1.mp4 Only 118 days away from Marlins Opening Day. 🔷 With there reportedly being a large gap between Kyle Stowers and the Marlins in recent contract extensions talks, Kevin Barral picked Eury Pérez, Jakob Marsee and Joe Mack as more realistic extension candidates. 🔷 Concluding their series of World Baseball Classic-inspired national team rosters, Son Los Marlins constructed the best possible Venezuelan team comprised of former Fish (en español). 🔷 Mike Petriello of MLB.com identified the Marlins as having some of the key ingredients to potentially emulate the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays. 🔷 A rendering of what loanDepot park will look like for the Miami Tennis Invitational on December 8 portrays the outfield walls as a much brighter shade of blue compared to this past season. We'll find out soon whether this is a legitimate change or just a hastily assembled visual with distorted lighting. 🔷 Congratulations to Mallory and Dane Myers, who are expecting their second child. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Dylan Cease and the Blue Jays agreed to a seven-year, $210 million deal. That may prove to be the largest contract signed by any pitcher this offseason. The Los Angeles Angels are negotiating to buy out the final year of Anthony Rendon's ill-fated $245 million deal, deferring a portion of the money beyond 2026. Rendon is expected to retire. View full article

On MLB Network's Hot Stove, Marlins second baseman Xavier Edwards reflects on his 2025 midseason position change and how wins above replacement accounts for his all-around value as a player. View full video

Miami Marlins players Kyle Stowers, Xavier Edwards, Otto Lopez, Jakob Marsee, Janson Junk and Eury Pérez combined to receive nearly $2 million from the MLB pre-arbitration bonus pool, per the Associated Press. Players can become eligible for bonuses based on where they finish in the voting for major awards (MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and All-MLB). However, each of the six Marlins were paid according to a proprietary wins above replacement formula. This is the second straight year that Edwards and Lopez have earned pre-arb bonuses. Marsee spent the first four months of the 2025 season in the minor leagues, yet was so valuable as an all-around player down the stretch that he made up for lost time. He winds up collecting more money from the bonus pool than he did in salary during his partial season on the Marlins roster. Ronny Henriquez and Heriberto Hernández are among the other young Marlins who fell just barely below the bonus pool cut-off. Courtesy of Spotrac, we can combine these bonuses with each player's cash earnings at the major league level to approximate their overall income for 2025: Kyle Stowers, $1,317,218 Xavier Edwards, $1,158,237 Otto Lopez, $1,067,012 Eury Pérez, $982,753 Janson Junk, $779,784 Jakob Marsee, $523,282 Ten members of the Milwaukee Brewers received bonuses, making them the only team better represented than the Marlins. The pool was divided among 101 total players. Edwards, Lopez, Pérez and Stowers will be eligible for arbitration beginning in 2027, so they'll have only one more opportunity next year to be included in the pool. Junk and Marsee won't be arb-eligible until 2028 at the earliest. View full article

"The Miami Marlins are active in the closer market, talking with free-agent right-hander Michael King and other starting pitchers, and are also weighing upgrades at first and third base," according to a Monday morning report from Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic. Rosenthal had reported earlier this offseason that the Marlins might "double down on their rotation as a strength," but this is his first time linking them to a specific pitcher. Fun fact: King was involved in the very first trade of Bruce Sherman's ownership tenure. On November 20, 2017, the Marlins dealt him to the New York Yankees in exchange for Garrett Cooper and Caleb Smith. King made his major league debut in 2019 and was used primarily as a reliever by the Yankees. More recently, he was named Opening Day starter for the San Diego Padres in 2025. Through 10 outings, he was on an All-Star trajectory (2.59 ERA in 55.2 IP). However, he was limited to only five starts after Memorial Day due to right shoulder inflammation and left knee inflammation. He pitched one scoreless inning of relief for San Diego during the National League Wild Card Series. He turns 31 next May and has never previously been a free agent. Since moving to the rotation, King's average sinker velocity has sat around 93 mph, which is below average for a righty. However, his changeup is one of the best in baseball. His strikeout rate has steadily declined from a high of 33.2% in 2022 to 24.7% this season. qlxctj.mp4 The Padres extended a $22.025 million qualifying offer to King earlier this month. He rejected it, anticipating that he'll be able to garner a multi-year deal at a similar average annual value. It would be extremely out of character for the Marlins to be the highest bidders for King. In two previous offseasons with Peter Bendix serving as their president of baseball operations, the club has only guaranteed a total of $8.5 million to MLB free agents (Tim Anderson and Cal Quantrill). "People familiar with their plans" tell Ken Rosenthal that this willingness to add veteran talent is borne out of the opportunity to be a legitimate postseason contender coming off a 79-win campaign. However, Rosenthal and Drellich remind us that in 2025, the Marlins fell far short of the spending thresholds outlined by the collective bargaining agreement. They were expected to receive "roughly $70 million if not more" from league revenue sharing alone, yet finished with a luxury-tax payroll of approximately $85 million. As a result, they could face a greivance from the players' union this offseason if this frugal behavior persists. The Chicago Cubs are among King's other suitors, according to The Athletic's Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney. Regarding the closer market, the only high-profile name who was come off the board so far is Raisel Iglesias, who re-signed with the Atlanta Braves on a one-year, $16 million deal. View full rumor

On this day in 2005, the Florida Marlins and Boston Red Sox finalized the following blockbuster trade: Red Sox acquire RHP Josh Beckett, 3B Mike Lowell and RHP Guillermo Mota Marlins acquire RHP Jesús Delgado, RHP Harvey García, SS Hanley Ramírez and RHP Aníbal Sánchez Just two years later, the Sox won a World Series title, and both Beckett and Lowell played pivotal roles along the way. The former finished runner-up in 2007 American League Cy Young Award voting and was named MVP of the ALCS, while the latter placed fifth in AL MVP voting and took home WS MVP honors. They combined to spend 12 seasons in Boston, accumulating 30.0 fWAR. All four of the prospects that the Marlins received in exchange made MLB appearances for their new franchise. Ramírez immediately emerged as a brilliant offensive player en route to winning 2006 National League Rookie of the Year. He remains unequivocally the greatest shortstop that the Fish have ever had. Regardless of position, his 30.5 fWAR as a Marlin trails only Giancarlo Stanton (33.6 fWAR). Sánchez's tenure with the team also stretched from 2006-2012. He was a solid No. 3 starter. Some of you may disagree with sticking the "win-win" label on this deal considering that the Marlins didn't have a single postseason berth to show for the Hanley/Aníbal era. They constructed particularly solid rosters in 2008 and 2009, but back then, there was only one wild-card spot available in each league. If today's postseason format with three wild-card spots was in place at the time, we would've likely seen October baseball in South Florida. On Sunday in winter ball, Deyvison De Los Santos (Dominican Republic) went 1-for-4 with a sacrifice fly. Jared Serna (Mexico) went 2-for-4 with a triple double. Serna leads LMP with 45 hits and ranks second with a .995 OPS. Only 122 days away from Marlins Opening Day. 🔷 Freddy Tarnok signed a one-year, $1.5 million deal with Nippon Professional Baseball's Hiroshima Carp. It surprised me when the Marlins waived him earlier this offseason, but that makes sense now. Tarnok presumably requested his release in order to pursue this opportunity in Japan, which guarantees him nearly doubled what his MLB salary would've been in 2026. 🔷 The Marlins concluded their 2025 First-Year Player Camp last week. Wilfredo Lara won the camp's MVP award, Wilson Weber was the American MVP and Yohanfer Santana was the strength and conditioning MVP. 🔷 Louis Addeo-Weiss presented the statistical case for Cole Hamels to be considered for the Baseball Hall of Fame. 🔷 Continuing their series of World Baseball Classic-inspired national team rosters, Son Los Marlins constructed the best possible Cuban team comprised of former Fish (en español). 🔷 Happy 25th birthday to Josh White. A new addition to the Marlins 40-man roster, White has spent his entire professional career with the organization. Through four minor league seasons, he has posted a 2.97 ERA, 31.7 K% and .205 BAA in 203.1 IP (124 G/14 GS). 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the New York Mets and Texas Rangers agreed to a bad contract swap, exchanging Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien (with the Mets sending an additional $5 million to Texas). Both veterans are still solid everyday players, but they've clearly entered the decline phase of their careers. Nimmo was a pest against the Marlins throughout the past decade (.260/.368/.475 slash line with 17 home runs and six stolen bases in 118 games). However, I believe the Mets got the better end of the deal. Semien will bolster their leaky infield defense and he's signed for only three more years (Nimmo is signed for five more). In free agency, the Atlanta Braves inked Joel Payamps to a one-year, $2.25 million contract. View full article

The San Francisco Giants acquired outfielder Joey Wiemer from the Miami Marlins on Friday in exchange for cash considerations. Wiemer joined the Marlins in August when they claimed him off waivers from the Kansas City Royals. He quickly made it up to the major leagues on the heels of a Triple-A hot streak and Kyle Stowers' oblique injury. In 27 games, the 26-year-old slashed .236/.279/.436 with three home runs and an 88 wRC+. Thanks to great defense in right field, he accrued 0.4 fWAR in that small sample. The Marlins designated Wiemer for assignment this past Tuesday in the process of making room on their 40-man roster for prospects Joe Mack, Josh White and William Kempner. A significant factor behind the DFA decision? He is out of minor league options entering 2026. A transaction like this is a glorified waiver claim. Multiple teams put in a claim for Wiemer, valuing him enough to absorb him onto their roster, but none were willing to give up any of their own players in return. Even so, it's mildly amusing that Gabe Kapler's first "trade" since being promoted to Marlins GM involves the club he managed from 2020-2023. The most direct beneficiary of Wiemer's departure is Dane Myers. A fellow right-handed-hitting outfielder, Myers is three years older than his former teammate, but more disciplined at the plate. There is now a simpler path for him to make Miami's Opening Day roster in a part-time role if this outfield group remains intact for the rest of the offseason. For those interested in looking ahead, the Giants will visit loanDepot park next season from June 19-21. View full article

This particular subject has been top of mind for me since last offseason. There is so much potential surplus value the Marlins can create with early career extensions, with Yelich being a prime example. Leaning entirely on player development to eventually replace every productive veteran is not sufficient. Bendix will need to eventually make long-term bets on certain players. If he doesn't get the resources from ownership to buy out free agent years for rising stars, they'll inevitably fall short of being consistently competitive.

Still a final opportunity today to cut him loose with no strings attached. Despite coming up on arb eligibility, keep in mind Nardi has all of his minor league options left. Holding onto him through tonight's deadline just signals that he's worth a 40-man spot, not necessarily a 26-man one.