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Everything posted by Ely Sussman
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Today's Marlins news roundup also highlights a streaking team that's looking less likely to sell at the deadline.Thursday's GamesMarlins Podcast Episodes Thursday's Marlins MiLB Notes: Avisaíl García (Jacksonville) started in right field for the third straight day. After eight total games, nothing else for him to prove on this rehab assignment. INF/OF Xavier Edwards continues to thrive, going 3-for-4 with a home run and a walk. LHP Luis Palacios had a spectacular start (7.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 11 K) and became the first Marlins minor leaguer this season to surpass 100 innings pitched.The Marlins' second deadline deal is their first big splash, acquiring David Robertson from the Mets in exchange for prospects INF Marco Vargas and C Ronald Hernández. It's a steep price to pay when combining the young talent involved with the approximately $3.6 million that Robertson is owed through season's end. However, the 38-year-old reliever is an excellent fit for the Marlins, who needed a reliable righty with swing-and-miss stuff./news/marlins-mets-trade-david-robertson-details/ Nobody thinks that the Marlins are done adding yet. All of their young pitching trade chips are still intact! Daniel De Vivo of Swimming Upstream hears that the Fish are still interested in Gleyber Torres (a 2022 deadline target) and continue to have conversations about him with the Yankees.Another interesting nugget from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic: the Marlins "made a late push" for Carlos Santana before the Pirates traded him to the Brewers. Had they won the bidding, would that mean dealing/dumping Garrett Cooper?! Hard to imagine Santana, Cooper and Yuli Gurriel co-existing on the same roster. Santana and Cooper are roughly equals at the plate in 2023 in terms of wRC+, but the former is a better fielder at first base.New international free agent signing: Samuel Carpio, a 20-year-old right-hander from the Dominican Republic. He's been assigned to DSL Miami.Elsewhere around the majors, Shohei Ohtani threw a shutout for the Angels in the first game of their doubleheader, then homered twice in the second game. The Los Angeles Times reports that Nolan Arenado is willing to waive his no-trade clause to go to the Dodgers and only the Dodgers. Wild scene in St. Louis where Cardinals catcher Willson Contreras was struck on the head by an Ian Happ backswing in the first inning, prompting an early exit. Miles Mikolas retaliated by intentionally throwing at Happ, so the umpires ejected him. The Cubs took advantage and won their sixth straight game, propelling them to .500 and making it increasingly unlikely that they sell at the trade deadline.Congrats to Fish On First's Kevin Barral on his victory in the "Young Experts" . Thanks to everybody who submitted audience questions. Send in more if you'd like for an opportunity to have them featured on a future show. More Fish On First LIVE is streaming tonight at 5:30 p.m. ET on /Twitch/Twitter. Special guest: Sean Millerick. Super Subscribers, submit your series predictions before first pitch. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! "Miguel Cabrera Weekend" has arrived. The former Marlin and future Hall of Famer is visiting LoanDepot Park for the final time as an active player. He's got a 86 wRC+ at age 40! Not coincidentally, the Marlins are hosting their annual Venezuelan heritage celebration on Saturday.The Marlins have a 56.3% chance to win their series opener against the Tigers, per FanGraphs. Triple-A Jacksonville (7:05 p.m. ET) and DSL Marlins (11:00 a.m. ET) are at home, while Double-A Pensacola (7:35 p.m. ET), High-A Beloit (7:00 p.m. ET), FCL Marlins (12:00 p.m. ET) and DSL Miami (11:00 a.m. ET) are on the road.Check out the debut episode of , the latest addition to our FOF podcast lineup discussing trending MLB topics that go beyond just the Marlins.Greg Cote of the Miami Herald still laments the Marlins' decision to trade away Cabrera just as he was entering his prime.On this day 15 years ago, the Marlins beat the Mets thanks to a five-run rally in the eighth inning.Photo courtesy of Miami Marlins
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Well, that settles Miami's closer situation!One of Major League Baseball's most accomplished active relievers is coming to Miami. As first reported by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Marlins are acquiring right-hander David Robertson from the New York Mets in exchange for two young prospects, INF Marco Vargas and C Ronald Hernández. Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirms that the Marlins are eating all of the money still owed to the pending free agent through season's end (approx. $3.7M). The deal is now official. Robertson had been the Mets' main closer this season. He has accumulated 171 saves over parts of 15 MLB seasons with a 2.84 ERA and 2.96 FIP along the way. Even at 38 years old, his 27.9% strikeout rate ranks in the 78th percentile among all pitchers—that is significantly better than any of the Marlins' other right-handed relievers. With A.J. Puk struggling throughout the month of July, Robertson figures to supplant him in the ninth-inning role. Robertson's pitch mix consists of a cutter, curveball and slider. His cutter is averaging 93.2 miles per hour in 2023, the highest velocity he's had for that pitch since 2011. And despite being only 5'11", he gets terrific extension off the mound, so his velo plays up. This week, the Marlins traded Dylan Floro to the Minnesota Twins and lost Matt Barnes to season-ending hip surgery. They had been the members of Miami's bullpen with the most extensive playoff experience. However, Robertson has gotten more October reps than both of them combined (2.78 ERA in 45.1 IP across eight different years). https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2022/2022-10/28/ea4ecb86-1bef6975-8a65877a-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4In a microscopic sample, Robertson has dominated during his previous appearances at LoanDepot Park (7.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K with 4 SV). The Marlins will be the seventh MLB team that he has played for. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-03/30/d7d39e1d-a69ce207-7e222003-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Vargas ranked 15th on our latest Fish On First Top 30 list. Hernández ranked 18th. Both have excelled in the Florida Complex League this season, drawing more walks than strikeouts, knocking on the door for a promotion to full-season ball. /podcasts/marlins-top-30-prospects-update-july-2023/The Marlins had a full 40-man roster prior to this move. The club announced that Matt Barnes has been transferred to the 60-day IL to make room for Robertson. My educated guess is that Bryan Hoeing will be optioned to Triple-A Jacksonville to get Robertson onto the active roster prior to Friday's game (the Marlins haven't used Hoeing since July 19). As soon as Monday, the Marlins should be getting left-hander Andrew Nardi (triceps inflammation) back from the injured list. Huascar Brazoban and George Soriano are the most likely candidates to be optioned at that point. Although Miami's already-weak farm system is taking a hit here, there is still ample pitching to use as chips to make additional upgrades prior to Tuesday's trade deadline. This is the third time in as many years that these NL East rivals have linked up to complete a trade. In February 2021, they exchanged Jordan Yamamoto for then-prospect Federico Polanco (those players have since retired and been released, respectively). Then last November, the Marlins sent fringy big leaguers Elieser Hernández and Jeff Brigham to NY for prospects Jake Mangum (currently playing for Triple-A Jacksonville) and Franklin Sánchez (High-A Beloit). Photo courtesy of New York Mets
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First time buying at the deadline since 2020, but first time in a "normal" full-length season since 2016.
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Today's Marlins news roundup also includes updates from several rehab assignments.Wednesday's GamesMarlins Podcast Episodes Wednesday's Marlins MiLB Notes: Rehabbing with Jacksonville, Avisaíl García went 2-for-4 with a loooooong home run and an outfield assist. INF Jordan Groshans delivered the walk-off RBI single. RHP Eury Pérez (Pensacola) made his first start since being optioned earlier this month. He was limited to 45 pitches (2.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 0 HR). Tommy Nance and RHP Jacob Miller both began their rehab assignments with scoreless appearances during an FCL Marlins blowout win. The team's offense erupted for 15 runs despite not hitting any homers.Sandy Alcantara threw his 11th career complete game, tied for third-most in Marlins history. He earned his 38th Marlins win, matching José Fernández for ninth place on the all-time franchise list.The Marlins acquired Jorge López from the Twins in exchange for Dylan Floro. López is slightly cheaper, under club control through 2024 and earned an All-Star selection last year, but he's been struggling even more than Floro this season (5.09 ERA, 5.94 FIP, -0.24 WPA in 35.1 IP). Craig Mish of SportsGrid, who broke the news, expects the Marlins to add another right-handed reliever prior to Tuesday's trade deadline./news/marlins-twins-trade-dylan-floro-jorge-lopez/Elsewhere around the majors, the Angels traded two of their top prospects to the White Sox for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López, while the Dodgers and Guardians swapped Noah Syndergaard for Amed Rosario. Such an aggressive "buying" move makes it clear that the Angels won't be parting with Shohei Ohtani prior to the deadline. MLB owners officially extended Rob Manfred's contract. He has been the league's commissioner for the last eight-and-a-half years and this extension is poised to keep him there for another five-and-a-half. Our monthly Marlins Jeopardy trivia contest is streaming tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET on /Twitch/Twitter. Thanks to everybody who submitted audience questions. Send in more if you'd like for an opportunity to have it featured on a future show. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! Triple-A Jacksonville (7:05 p.m. ET), Low-A Jupiter (6:30 p.m. ET) and DSL Marlins (11:00 a.m. ET) are at home, while Double-A Pensacola (7:35 p.m. ET), High-A Beloit (7:00 p.m. ET) and DSL Miami (11:00 a.m. ET) are on the road.Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald wonders whether Wednesday's game could be a turning point in Sandy Alcantara's season. Battery mate Jacob Stallings observed that “he was more upbeat than really I’ve ever seen him on a start day.”For comprehensive Marlins injury updates, remember to bookmark our tracker./news/tracking-miami-marlins-injury-rehab-updates/On this day 20 years ago, Juan Pierre’s walk-off RBI single completed a sweep of the Phillies.Photo courtesy of 65josecastillo/Instagram
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Marlins trade Dylan Floro to Twins for Jorge López
Ely Sussman replied to Ely Sussman's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
The trade involving Vesia was about as even as it gets just going by regular season production. I suppose you could use Vesia' pre-arb salary and postseason appearances as a tiebreaker that tilts it toward the Dodgers. Kyle Hurt has fun strikeout numbers in the minors, but odds are still stacked against him being a competent big leaguer.- 6 replies
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Marlins trade Dylan Floro to Twins for Jorge López
Ely Sussman replied to Ely Sussman's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
I can explain why López was available and why his trade value has fallen considerably from where it was a year ago. I cannot explain why the Marlins are gambling on him in the middle of the season and trading from their active roster to do so. Easier to rehabilitate a pitcher like this in the offseason/spring training.- 6 replies
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Two teams squarely in playoff contention exchange right-handed relievers.Shortly after the conclusion of Wednesday's game, the Miami Marlins swapped veteran right-handed relievers with the Minnesota Twins, sending Dylan Floro up north in exchange for Jorge López. The trade is official (first reported by Craig Mish of SportsGrid). The Marlins had a clear need for right-handed bullpen help, but they're giving up one of their best MLB righties in the process of addressing that, and López is actually having a worse 2023 season than Floro. Floro was Miami's best setup man in April. Since then, however, he's had awful results on balls in play, making him untrustworthy in high-leverage situations. Overall, his three seasons for Miami were an unmitigated success (3.32 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 1.27 WHIP, 32 SV in 157.1 IP). /analysis/dylan-floro-unlucky-2023-fip-era/ The Puerto Rican López struggled for much of his major league career—toggling between starting and relieving—prior to his 2022 breakout. He was among MLB's elite bullpen arms from April-June of that season, ascending to the closer's role with the Baltimore Orioles. The O's shipped him to the Twins prior to last year's trade deadline. Similar to Floro, López was very successful earlier this year, posting a 0.00 earned run average in April. Things spiraled out of control from there, though. He allowed 15 earned runs in 15 innings from May through mid-June before being placed on the injured list to take care of his mental health. He made eight appearances between that IL stint and this transaction (8.1 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR). https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-04/28/0f28d914-99d07d49-6fffe59d-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Now in his age-30 season, López still has upper-90s fastball velocity and a deep pitch mix. His upside is significantly higher than Floro's. However, his strikeout rate dropped dramatically after leaving Baltimore and has not recovered. Also, after posting one of the league's highest groundball rates last year (58.0 GB%), he's fallen relatively close to the league average (47.7 GB%). Against right-handed batters, López relies heavily on his sinker and slider. Against lefties, he's been going mostly with four-seamers, curveballs and changeups. All five offerings have generated multiple strikeouts for him in 2023. Of course, it's possible that Mel Stottlemyre Jr. and the Marlins coaching staff will suggest changes to this approach given his recent struggles. No doubt an important consideration for the Marlins: López has one more year of arbitration eligibility remaining (Floro was a pending free agent). Floro ($4.2M) and López ($3.53M) are making comparable salaries in 2023. With the trade deadline still six days away, the López acquisition will not preclude the Marlins from continuing to pursue relief help, Craig Mish tweets. Adding to the starting rotation and offense are also priorities. More updates to come...
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Offishial news, 7/26/23: José Castillo trade; Cabrera exits early again
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
Today's Marlins news roundup also includes the unveiling of the 2024 Grapefruit League schedule.Tuesday's GamesMarlins Podcast Episodes Tuesday's Marlins MiLB Notes: Rehabbing with Jacksonville, Avisaíl García went 1-for-3 with a walk and Andrew Nardi struck out two batters during an easy eight-pitch inning of relief. The Hammerheads played their first "home" game in The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches. Draft picks 1B Brock Vradenburg (2-for-5) and OF Mark Coley (1-for-4, RBI, BB) made their professional debuts. It's been a struggle for RHP Hiroshi Takahashi with the DSL Marlins this season, but he finally had his first scoreless appearance (2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 1 K) and earned his first career win.Edward Cabrera's start came undone in the second inning because of a recurring blister issue. The Marlins desperately need him to fill out their rotation at the moment, but it's becoming increasingly difficult to project Cabrera as a starter moving forward considering how frequently blisters impact his control and availability.The Marlins took a flier on Padres LHP José Castillo, acquiring him for cash considerations and optioning him to Jacksonville. "Big Dude" (he's listed at 6'6", 252) possesses a mid-90s fastball and wipeout slider, but injuries have halted his progress for much of the last five seasons. He has a 9.82 ERA, 7.15 FIP and 2.07 WHIP for Triple-A El Paso this year (18.1 IP). Miami's 40-man roster is temporarily full, but the club can easily make room for a newcomer by transferring Matt Barnes to the 60-day injured list at any point. Barnes underwent hip surgery on Tuesday.The 2024 spring training schedule has been announced. We're less than seven months away from the Marlins' Grapefruit League opener against the Cardinals.Elsewhere around the majors, the Dodgers reunited with Kiké Hernández, sending relievers Nick Robertson and Justin Hagenman to the Red Sox to complete the trade. Hernández has the lowest fWAR among MLB hitters this season (yes, even worse than Jean Segura). It wasn't pretty, but the Angels prevailed in extra innings to win for the sixth time in their last seven games.The latest episode of reacted to the Castillo trade, Marlins injury updates and the recent history of the Rays dominating the Citrus Series. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! The Marlins have a 44.4% chance to win their series finale against the Rays, per FanGraphs. Triple-A Jacksonville (7:05 p.m. ET), Low-A Jupiter (doubleheader starting at 4:30 p.m. ET) and FCL Marlins (12:00 p.m. ET) are at home, while Double-A Pensacola (7:35 p.m. ET) and High-A Beloit (11:00 a.m. ET) are on the road.Louis Addeo-Weiss makes the case that bad luck has played a major role in Dylan Floro's disappointing 2023 campaign. Get yourself a three-pack of Marlins friendship bracelets from our partners at FOCO.Marlins Jeopardy returns on Thursday! It's a "Young Experts" special, featuring contestants who weren't even born the last time the Marlins won it all. As usual, we're including your audience questions. Please submit them here.You may have noticed a lot of announcements this season about Marlins players who are expecting new children. This past weekend, there was a group baby shower at LoanDepot Park for the wives of Luis Arraez, Matt Barnes, Jon Berti, Garrett Hampson and Tanner Scott.Photo courtesy of 65josecastillo/Instagram -
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It is astonishing how lopsided their head-to-head matchups have been the last 5 years. About as bad as any "rivalry" in the league during that period.
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With the reigning award winner underperforming this season and no other National League pitcher stepping up, Luzardo is gradually building a case for himself.Editor's Note: I was initially proud of myself for coming up with this article headline. However, it has since come to my attention that "slither" is specifically used to describe snakes and organisms that move similarly to them. The verb isn't applicable to Jesús "Lizard King" Luzardo in any way. I regret the error and hope it does not distract from the content below. I'll begin by saying that there is no comparison between 2022 Sandy Alcantara and 2023 Jesús Luzardo. Hopefully you savored every pitch Alcantara threw en route to becoming the unanimous National League Cy Young award winner because we may never see a campaign like that from a Miami Marlins starting pitcher again. It was a near-perfect blend of run prevention and volume. Fortunately for Luzardo, the NL Cy Young gets presented anew every season. In the lefty's first fully healthy season as an MLB starter, he owns a 3.22 ERA, legitimized by his matching 3.22 FIP, with a 1.15 WHIP in 120.1 IP through 21 starts. With Alcantara and many of the Senior Circuit's most venerable arms falling short of their preseason projections due to ineffectiveness and/or injuries, that's good enough to put Luzardo in the thick of the race. Luzardo had a career day on Sunday, striking out 13 Colorado Rockies batters over seven innings in a game his team absolutely needed to win. Despite an unprecedented workload, the 25-year-old isn't showing any signs of slowing down; on the contrary, he's expanding his pitch mix to stay ahead of his competition. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-07/23/4ca81b06-1a6e4def-af9af912-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4There is a heavy overlap between the leading Cy Young candidates and the Baseball-Reference wins above replacement leaders. Throughout the past decade, every AL and NL bWAR pitching leader with the exception of 2019 Mike Minor has been a Cy Young finalist in their respective league. Luzardo has a shot to lead the NL in 2023. He enters Tuesday in a tie for third (3.0 bWAR), only looking up at Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers (3.1) and Marcus Stroman of the Chicago Cubs (3.1). Kershaw is on the injured list and will need several weeks to be fully stretched out as a starter again. A pending free agent on a sub-.500 Cubs team, Stroman could potentially be traded out of the NL entirely, and he's been trending in the wrong direction anyway with just one quality start in his last five tries. Tied with Luzardo at 3.0 bWAR, Blake Snell is a trade candidate for the disappointing San Diego Padres for the same reason that Stroman is. I don't see Kershaw, Stroman or Snell as Luzardo's main adversaries, though. Right-handers Spencer Strider (Atlanta Braves), Zac Gallen (Arizona Diamondbacks) and Zack Wheeler (Philadelphia Phillies) were among the NL's most dominant starters in 2022. The league's leading strikeout artist on the league's best team, Strider has everybody's attention and his peripherals point to better run prevention moving forward. Unlike Luzardo, Gallen and Wheeler have demonstrated the ability to make 30-plus starts in a single season—you gotta be more confident in them maintaining their success in August and September than Luzardo because of that track record. There are others in striking distance, too. Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom have each repeated as Cy Young winners in the recent past. But to find the last example of different pitchers winning the hardware for the same team in consecutive years, you'd have to go way back to CC Sabathia (2007) and Cliff Lee (2008) of the then-Cleveland Guardians. Assuming that Luzardo starts every fifth Marlins game for the foreseeable future, his upcoming opponents will be the Detroit Tigers (Jul. 30), Texas Rangers (Aug. 4) and Cincinnati Reds (Aug. 9).

