Marlins Trade Targets: Jeimer Candelario

The Miami Marlins have exceeded expectations so far in 2023. However, to sustain this (and to better position themselves for perennial postseason contention), they'll likely need to acquire help from outside the organization. Leading up to the August 1 MLB trade deadline, Fish On First will profile potentially attainable players who would fit with what the Fish are building.

3B Jeimer Candelario (Washington Nationals)

Originally signed and developed by the Chicago Cubs, Jeimer Candelario broke through to the majors during their curse-breaking 2016 campaign. That cup of coffee lasted only five games, however, and he didn't make much of an impression during brief MLB stints with them the following year. Candelario was shipped to the Detroit Tigers prior to the 2017 trade deadline, where he spent the next half-decade as one of the few bright spots of their gradual rebuild.

From 2018-2022, Candelario led the Tigers in practically every offensive counting stat while posting a league-average slash line at the plate. Detroit used him primarily at third base except for the shortened 2020 season, when he moved across the diamond to first and raked at a career-best level (.297/.369/.503, 140 wRC+ in 52 G).

Candelario got off to an extremely poor start in 2022, then briefly missed time due to a left shoulder subluxation. Even though he played closer to his career norms from late June onward, his overall season production was roughly replacement level and the Tigers non-tendered him (otherwise, he would've been due a contract in the $7 million range via arbitration).

The Washington Nationals scooped up the 29-year-old in free agency on a one-year, $5 million deal. Candelario has rewarded them by fully rebounding to his pre-2022 self.

Candelario enters Wednesday having played in 75 of Washington's first 79 games, slashing .262/.336/.469 (116 wRC+) and providing 2.3 fWAR/2.5 bWAR. The Nats are vying for the National League's worst record, but they'd be even worse without Candelario's clutch hitting—he ranks fifth among MLB third basemen in win probability added, per FanGraphs. A switch-hitter who's historically been the same dude from both sides of the plate, he's disproportionately mashing as a lefty in 2023 (135 wRC+ and all 10 of his home runs).

After mixed results on defense in 2022, Candelario has improved in that facet of the game, too. He's got three defensive runs saved and a career-high six outs above average. Aside from lacking the arm strength typically associated with the position, he has well-rounded skills.

Even Candelario's baserunning is aging gracefully. His 27.4 ft/sec sprint speed is his best since 2017 and he has taken the extra base in 53% of his opportunities, as defined by Baseball-Reference (his career average is only 39%).

Availability

The Nationals entered 2023 with minuscule playoff odds and those have only gone down from there. For Candelario to be arguably their best player speaks to the dearth of talent around him.

The Nats could conceivably explore an extension with the pending free agent to raise the floor of their lineup moving forward. However, the FA class around Candelario is thin on everyday players, so he'll be very tempted to let things play out and cash in. Facilitating a trade would behoove Washington as well because there just aren't many veteran players on their roster likely to generate interest from contenders.

Although intradivision trades have been rare in the past, I expect attitudes toward that to change now that head-to-head matchups between rivals are less frequent and it's easier to reach October as a Wild Card (and make noise once you get there) irregardless of who's in your division.

Roster Fit & Hypothetical Trade

Candelario's fit with the Marlins hinges on how Jean Segura performs over the next month leading up to the deadline. Segura has been miscast as a third baseman, so Candelario would clearly be an upgrade defensively, but the Fish are understandably holding out hope that Segura's bat will improve down the stretch. So far, he's been MLB's worst hitter (min. 200 PA) despite a lengthy, solid track record. If Segura's July falls significantly short of a 100 wRC+, how about making Candelario the strong side of a third base platoon with the potential to play some first base in the event of 39-year-old Yuli Gurriel wearing down or Garrett Cooper suffering another injury?

The cost to acquire Candelario is suppressed by his lack of club control beyond 2023 and the suspicion that his production will drop off a bit in August and September, so Miami's best prospects will be off limits. Would pairing right-hander Evan Fitterer and outfielder Peyton Burdick be enough? Both 2019 draft picks still have paths to being serviceable big leaguers, but their flaws are glaring (shaky control for Fitterer, too much swing-and-miss for Burdick). The Marlins can subtract them without hindering their chances of a postseason berth.

Here's what Baseball Trade Values thinks.

Photo courtesy of Washington Nationals