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Everything posted by Ely Sussman
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Offishial news, 8/3/23: Biggest win of the year; Jake Burger interview
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
Today's Marlins news roundup also wonders whether the rumored Salvador Perez trade talks could pick up again in the not-too-distant future.Wednesday's Games/game-coverage/marlins-phillies-josh-bell-jake-burger-walk-off-8-2-23/https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/02/639f3541-2b943069-dcd2bcb1-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Marlins Podcast Episodes Wednesday's Marlins MiLB Notes: Newly acquired LHP Ryan Weathers was optioned to Jacksonville. INF José Devers (Pensacola) set a new Blue Wahoos team record for most career triples. Two more stolen bases for OF Jake DeLeo (Jupiter). He's now 7-for-7 in that department through his first nine minor league games. RHP Jacob Miller (FCL Marlins) continues to get stretched out for starting duty on his rehab assignment (2.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K). C/INF Carmine Lane recorded a season-high three hits, bumping his OPS above 1.000. INF Yoffry Solano (DSL Miami) returned to minor league action after missing nearly two months. Solano received the largest bonus in the 2022 Marlins international signing class.Trade acquisitions Josh Bell and Jake Burger combined to go 6-for-11 with two walks in their debuts with the Marlins. Bell reached base safely five times, joining fellow deadline pick-up Nick Johnson (2009) as the only players ever to do so in their first Marlins game.Jesús Sánchez blooped a single to left field to deliver the walk-off winner. He already has more than twice as many opposite-field hits in 2023 as he had all of last season! It was the 24th one-run win for the Marlins, matching their total from 2022.Jorge Soler had the most important individual hit, a game-tying solo home run off of Gregory Soto in the bottom of the ninth inning. He ranks 14th in win probability added among all MLB hitters this season, sandwiched in between Aaron Judge and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Our Twitter followers voted the Burger/Jake Eder exchange as the best Marlins deadline day deal, though the Bell/Jean Segura/Kahlil Watson one also received 40.6% of the support.Check out Kevin Barral's with Burger about his excitement of being shipped into a playoff race. Elsewhere around the majors, the Cubs have racked up 36 runs against the Reds over the last two days, though they just lost Marcus Stroman to the injured list with right hip inflammation. Fernando Tatis Jr. reached 100 career home runs in the fourth-fewest games of any player in MLB history. Austin Riley stays sizzling hot, homering for the ninth time in 17 games since the All-Star break. Teammate Matt Olson blasted his 37th of the year, putting him only two behind Shohei Ohtani's MLB lead.The Marlins have a 45.7% chance to win their series finale against the Phillies, per FanGraphs. They are tied for the third NL Wild Card spot entering play today. Double-A Pensacola (7:35 p.m. ET) is at home, while Triple-A Jacksonville (8:05 p.m. ET), High-A Beloit (7:05 p.m. ET), Low-A Jupiter (6:30 p.m. ET) and FCL Marlins (12:00 p.m. ET) are on the road. The two DSL teams face each other at 11:00 a.m. ET.The Marlins revisited Salvador Perez trade talks with the Royals on Tuesday, per multiple reports. I could definitely see those negotiations picking up again in the offseason.Ben Clemens explains that although he likes how the Marlins upgraded their present-day roster in several areas prior to the deadline, they paid a steep long-term cost for players who might not actually move the needle for them.MLB Pipeline wants to see Xavier Edwards called up by the Marlins before season's end. Edwards ranks second in the Triple-A International League batting race behind only veteran retread Miguel Andújar.The Caliente Red team defeated Miami Blue in the Marlins Media Softball Game, 13-9. Shoutout to Noah Berger and Kevin Barral for proudly repping Fish On First at the silly event.Happy 22nd birthday to Marlins LHP Kevin Vaupel. Drafted by the team in the 16th round of last month's MLB Draft, Vaupel has pitched one scoreless inning for the FCL Marlins so far. Photo courtesy of Miami Marlins- 1 comment
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It's no secret that the Miami Marlins have a weakness behind the plate. Neither Jacob Stallings nor Nick Fortes has hit a lick in 2023. They struggle to control the running game, too. The tandem's combined production would be well below replacement level if not for . That being said, it is notoriously messy for a team to make major catching changes in the midst of a contending season. It's imperative to preserve the relationships between pitchers and their catchers when things are going well. With Tuesday's MLB trade deadline approaching, it seemed that the Marlins had resigned themselves to sticking with their internal options and would focus on making upgrades at other positions instead. However, per multiple reports, the Marlins set aside some time on deadline day to inquire about at least one notable catcher: Kansas City Royals captain Salvador Perez. The still-rebuilding Royals "entertained offers" for Perez, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Athletic's Jayson Stark added that Perez, who has full no-trade protection, would have been willing to make the move to Miami. Alas, the teams could not agree on a fair return package. Don't let his 2023 AL All-Star selection fool you: Salvy has been in a gradual decline. His on-base and slugging percentages have fallen annually since 2020. He's a below-average hitter by wRC+ in his age-33 season. The five-time Gold Glover still catches frequently, but doesn't do it well—even his impact as a thrower has deteriorated by Statcast's estimation. Would Perez still represent an upgrade over Stallings and Fortes? Of course. But one issue is, Perez gets paid like an elite catcher and his contract calls for that to continue through the 2025 season. He has over $50 million guaranteed still coming his way (including a buyout of his 2026 club option). The other prominent factor impeding serious negotiations is Perez's sterling reputation in KC, being that he's a lifetime Royal and the last remaining link to the 2015 championship-winning team. His contract is even deeper underwater than Avisaíl García's, according to Baseball Trade Values' formula. However, that fanbase would go ballistic if the Royals traded Perez for García straight up, and understandably so. To make a Salvy trade palatable from the Royals' perspective, they would need to get mildly promising players in return. That isn't happening unless they eat the majority of the money still owed to him. Hence, the lack of progress. Stallings is a likely non-tender candidate for the Marlins this offseason. Fortes still merits a 40-man roster spot, but his offensive production has cratered since mid-2022—overall, he is underqualified to be their primary catcher if they have real aspirations to be playoff contenders in 2024. The internal options beneath them on the depth chart (Austin Allen, Will Banfield, Paul McIntosh, etc.) do not inspire much confidence, either. So yeah, the Marlins will resume their catching search in a few months. Although you'd expect Miami to engage other teams who have solid veteran catchers, a barren farm system limits the universe of realistic targets. Salvy will only have $44 million left on his deal by then. As general manager Kim Ng said during Wednesday's Marlins game broadcast on Bally Sports Florida, "these deals really do take quite a long time sometimes" to come to fruition. I could see a Salvador Perez trade being an example of that. Photo courtesy of Kansas City Royals
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Marlins acquire Jake Burger from Chicago White Sox
Ely Sussman replied to Kevin Barral's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
With Eder, I expect him to be a good reliever even if he doesn't fulfill his potential. With Weathers, it's more unclear where he goes from here. Major adjustments are needed. My baseline expectation is for Eder to have the better career moving forward.- 2 replies
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Today's Marlins news roundup also highlights another encouraging start for Miami's ace.Tuesday's Games/game-coverage/marlins-phillies-sandy-alcantara-start-wasted-8-1-23/https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/01/91920349-578bcd04-79eba194-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Marlins Podcast Episodes Tuesday's Marlins MiLB Notes: Another multi-hit game for 1B Troy Johnston (Jacksonville), who's now hitting .448 since his promotion. RHP Eury Pérez (Pensacola) stretched out to 63 pitches (3.1 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 7 K). OF Griffin Conine homered twice in support of him. Tommy Nance (Jupiter) pitched one inning in the third outing of his minor league rehab assignment. 1B Kendry Feliz (DSL Marlins) hit for the cycle. In the aftermath of the deadline day trades, MLB Pipeline has added OF Andres Valor, RHP Anthony Maldonado and RHP Matt Pushard to their Marlins Top 30 prospects list.So summing these trades up one at a time, the Marlins acquired the controllable infield power bat that they had been coveting in Jake Burger. The price was Jake Eder, their top left-handed pitching prospect. I liked this deal very much. For all of his limitations as a player (in particular, poor plate discipline and contact ability), Burger will undoubtedly improve the production that this club has been getting from third base—Jean Segura set the bar so low. Meanwhile, Eder wasn't going to contribute to the 2023 playoff push./news/marlins-white-sox-trade-jake-burger-jake-eder/Speaking of Segura, the Marlins swapped his bad contract with Josh Bell's, though they had to include former first-round draft pick Kahlil Watson to make it a fair value. Lots of risk here. The veteran Bell has the potential to be the most impactful hitter of anybody moved at the deadline, but ever since he was traded at the 2022 deadline, he simply hasn't performed. By fWAR, Bell and Segura have both been among MLB's five least valuable position players over the last calendar year. Watson, 20, still has immense upside./news/josh-bell-jean-segura-kahlil-watson-trade/Evidently deterred by the asking prices on proven major league starting pitchers, the Marlins packaged Garrett Cooper and relief prospect Sean Reynolds to the Padres for left-hander Ryan Weathers. Through 143 MLB innings pitched (43 G/29 GS), Weathers has been lousy (5.73 ERA and 5.54 FIP) due to issues preventing homers and enticing opponents to chase outside the strike zone. General manager Kim Ng was non-committal about whether—no pun intended—the would join their rotation. This is a lo-fi version of the 2021 Starling Marte/Jesús Luzardo trade. Even if pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. has a plan for bringing out the best in Weathers, it would be unrealistic to expect that to pay immediate dividends. This is a project for 2024 and beyond. Which of these three do you like most? Vote here!Hear our live reactions to the trades on the special call-in show we hosted on the @MarlinsSpaces Twitter account. Fish On First staffers and Super Subscribers weighed in. Consider supporting FOF by becoming a Super Subscriber yourself.As for the Marlins who were on the field Tuesday night, Sandy Alcantara excelled for the second straight start. Slated to face the top of the Phillies lineup for a fourth time and having already thrown 101 pitches, manager Skip Schumaker turned to his new closer, David Robertson, who blew it (season-high three earned runs allowed). But the game was truly lost at the plate as Miami pushed across only one run despite putting 15 runners on base."Pepito" won the inaugural Marlins Rooster Race, which was held in the middle of the sixth inning.Elsewhere around the majors, Justin Verlander was traded back to the Astros for two top outfield prospects. Despite being the reigning AL Cy Young award winner, you could argue that he's merely their No. 2 starter behind Framber Valdez, who just threw a no-hitter against the Guardians. The Cubs clobbered the Reds, 20-9. Josh Hader extended his streak to 20 consecutive appearances without allowing an earned run (dates back to the beginning of June). The Phillies rented Michael Lorenzen from the Tigers, and he'll be starting on Thursday at LoanDepot Park. The Marlins have a 46.0% chance to win their next game against the Phillies, per FanGraphs. Double-A Pensacola (7:35 p.m. ET), and DSL Miami (11:00 a.m. ET) are at home, while Triple-A Jacksonville (8:05 p.m. ET), High-A Beloit (7:05 p.m. ET), Low-A Jupiter (6:30 p.m. ET) and FCL Marlins (12:00 p.m. ET) are on the road.Louis Addeo-Weiss looks back at what went well for the Marlins in July (slim pickings)./analysis/july-2023-marlins-stats-highlights/Fish On First's Noah Berger and Kevin Barral are participating in the Marlins Media Softball Game at LoanDepot Park as I write this. They're on the Caliente Red team. See the full rosters here.Photo courtesy of Miami Marlins
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The rumors that get out to the public during MLB trade deadline season are just the tip of the iceberg. Every "source" has their own motivations for sharing names with the media, while some of the juiciest negotiations never see the light of your Twitter feed until the deals have been finalized. The Miami Marlins' acquisitions of relief pitchers David Robertson and especially Jorge López seemingly came out of nowhere, for example. Nonetheless, there's value in aggregating the industry's reporting to get a sense of how the Marlins are aiming to modify their roster leading up to Tuesday's deadline. Even the targets that they don't acquire now could be revisited during the 2023-24 offseason and beyond. Definitely AvailableINF Tim Anderson (Chicago White Sox) via Jesse Rogers, ESPN 2023 pre-deadline stats: .245/.286/.293, 60 wRC+, 1 HR, 10 SB, -0.5 fWAR in 82 G (age-30 season)$12.5M salary this season with $14M club option for 2024 ($1M buyout)Projected asking price should be comparable to Nicky López (traded by Royals to Braves for LHP Taylor Hearn)Additional notes: Anderson finally found his offensive groove in the first 15 games coming out of the All-Star break (.344/.403/.426 in 67 PA).SP Jack Flaherty (St. Louis Cardinals) via Derrick Goold, St. Louis Post-Dispatch 2023 pre-deadline stats: 109.2 IP, 4.43 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 1.5 fWAR in 20 GS (age-31 season)Pending free agent with $5.4M salary this seasonOther teams with reported interest: Dodgers, YankeesSP Michael Lorenzen (Detroit Tigers) via Jon Heyman, New York Post 2023 pre-deadline stats: 105.2 IP, 3.58 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 1.6 fWAR in 18 GS (age-31 season)Pending free agent with $8.5M salary this seasonOther teams with reported interest: Astros, Rays, Orioles, Diamondbacks Availability UnclearOF Eloy Jiménez (Chicago White Sox) via Bruce Levine, 670 The Score 2023 pre-deadline stats: .285/.330/.477, 120 wRC+, 13 HR, 0 SB, 0.8 fWAR in 71 G (age-26 season)$10.3M salary this season with club control through 2026 (if club options are exercised)Other teams with reported interest: BrewersINF Gleyber Torres (New York Yankees) via Daniel De Vivo, Swimming Upstream and Randy Miller, NJ Advance Media 2023 pre-deadline stats: .255/.319/.422, 104 wRC+, 16 HR, 8 SB, 1.3 fWAR in 105 G (age-26 season)$9.95M salary this season under club control through 2024 via arbitrationAccording to Randy Miller of NJ Advance Media: "The Marlins have been pushing hard for Torres, but the Yankees’ asking price has been too steep for their liking—two 25-year-old starting pitchers, right-hander Edward Cabrera and lefty Braxton Garrett, plus two prospects."Additional notes: The Marlins and Yankees reportedly had negotiations involving Torres and Pablo López prior to the 2022 deadline. Traded Elsewhere3B Jeimer Candelario (formerly of Washington Nationals) via and Bob Nightengale, USA Today2023 stats with Nationals: .258/.341/.481, 121 wRC+, 16 HR, 6 SB, 3.1 fWAR in 99 G (age-29 season)Pending free agent with $5M salary this seasonTraded to Cubs on July 311B Carlos Santana (formerly of Pittsburgh Pirates) via Ken Rosenthal, The Athletic 2023 stats with Pirates: .235/.321/.412, 99 wRC+, 12 HR, 6 SB, 1.0 fWAR in 94 G (age-37 season)Pending free agent with $6.75M salary this seasonTraded to Brewers on July 27Additional notes: Would've been a bizarre fit considering the Marlins have rostered two other first basemen throughout the season, Garrett Cooper and Yuli Gurriel. Santana has started exclusively at 1B/DH since 2018. Were the Marlins prepared to trade Cooper or Gurriel in a corresponding move, or perhaps use Gurriel at third base down the stretch?Off the MarketOF/1B Cody Bellinger (Chicago Cubs) via Jon Morosi, MLB Network 2023 pre-deadline stats: .313/.365/.535, 140 wRC+, 15 HR, 12 SB, 2.9 fWAR in 75 G (age-27 season)$12.5M salary this season with $12.5M mutual option for 2024 ($5M buyout)Other teams that had reported interest: Astros, YankeesPhoto of Lorenzen courtesy of MLB Pipeline
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Today's Marlins news roundup also includes an update to the team's gameday entertainment itinerary.Monday's Games/game-coverage/marlins-phillies-edward-cabrera-walks-7-31-23/https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-07/31/ddddbcda-ce8b1d23-0248b29f-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Marlins Podcast Episodes Monday's Marlins MiLB Notes: LHP Luis Palacios (Pensacola) was named Southern League Pitcher of the Week. INF Kahlil Watson (FCL Marlins) homered in his second straight rehab game. Watson should be back with Beloit by the end of the week. Both Dominican Summer League teams committed five errors. OF Robert Pérez (DSL Marlins) hit his sixth homer of the season, which leads all Marlins rookie ball players.Edward Cabrera's control was especially bad on Monday. All three times that he's been paired with Nick Fortes this season, the enigmatic right-hander has issued six or more walks. His 15.4% walk rate overall is the worst in the majors among pitchers with 60-plus innings. I would be surprised if he stays in the Marlins starting rotation.Luis Arraez is hitting .381. Per Sarah Langs of MLB.com, that’s the highest batting average for a qualified hitter entering August (excluding 2020) since Nomar Garciaparra in 2000.Elsewhere around the majors, the Cubs won the Jeimer Candelario sweepstakes. The Guardians flipped Aaron Civale to the Rays and the Mariners traded Paul Sewald to the Diamondbacks. The Brewers picked up Mark Canha from the Mets and the Reds added Athletics reliever Sam Moll. Over his last six starts, Marcus Stroman's earned run average has ballooned from 2.28 to 3.85.What would make this a successful trade deadline day for the Marlins in my eyes? Acquiring a starting pitcher who can be trusted to work deep into games and an infielder with above-average power. I'd be totally on board with getting Gleyber Torres from the Yankees for Edward Cabrera and two additional pitching prospects in the Patrick Monteverde/Karson Milbrandt range.The latest included our panel's trade deadline takes and a detailed assessment of the rival Phillies. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! The Marlins have a 54.6% chance to win their next game against the Phillies, per FanGraphs. Double-A Pensacola (7:35 p.m. ET), FCL Marlins (doubleheader beginning at 10:00 a.m. ET) and DSL Marlins (11:00 a.m. ET) are at home, while Triple-A Jacksonville (8:05 p.m. ET), High-A Beloit (7:05 p.m. ET), Low-A Jupiter (5:00 p.m. ET) and DSL Miami (11:00 a.m. ET) are on the road.Tonight marks the return of mascot races at Marlins home games for the first time since 2017. This incarnation of it will feature three roosters (rather than sea creatures).Fish On First's Noah Berger and Kevin Barral will be participating in the Marlins Media Softball Game at LoanDepot Park on Wednesday morning. They're on the Caliente Red team. See the full rosters here.On this day 30 years ago, Chuck Carr’s bunt single propelled the Marlins past the Expos.Happy 20th birthday to Marlins LHP Dameivi Tineo. He posted a 2.70 ERA in the minors last season, but he's sidelined in 2023 following Tommy John surgery.Photo courtesy of Miami Marlins
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Today's Marlins news roundup also includes details on the club's pursuit of Gleyber Torres.Sunday's Games/game-coverage/mia-8-det-6-fish-come-roaring-back-vs-tigers-to-spoil-miggys-farewell/https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-07/30/6df52cee-fce35716-d5be6d71-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Marlins Podcast Episodes Sunday's Marlins MiLB Notes: For the fourth time in six games since being promoted, 1B Troy Johnston (Jacksonville) had multiple hits. He's slashing .440/.440/.800 with the Jumbo Shrimp. LHP Daniel Castano made just his second start of the 2023 season, shoving four hitless innings and compiling seven strikeouts. LHP José Castillo struggled in the ninth inning and took a loss in his Marlins organizational debut (0.1 IP, 1 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP). 1B Jacob Berry (Pensacola) hit his first Double-A home run. He continues being used exclusively at first base with the Blue Wahoos. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (Jupiter) played his first—and potentially, his only—rehab game, going 1-for-2 with a walk, a stolen base, a strikeout and five innings in center field. INF Fabian López and OF Jancory De La Cruz participated in the Dominican Summer League All-Star Game.Jesús Luzardo struggled, the offense couldn't string together hits against Tarik Skubal and the Marlins' win probability sunk as low as 7.3% during the middle of Sunday's contest. But a fifth-inning rally ignited by newly reinstated Avisaíl García erased the deficit. Jon Berti drew a crucial obstruction call, as explained by Close Call Sports. The Marlins went ahead for good on Garrett Cooper's two-run homer in the seventh. David Robertson earned the save in his first game with the Fish.Out of the 533 MLB pitchers who have made appearances in July, nobody has a lower win probability added than A.J. Puk. It's normal for talented relievers to go through rough patches, but Puk's case is particularly extreme.George Soriano lowered his earned run average to 1.98 and graduated from prospect eligibility. MLB Pipeline filled his spot on their Marlins Top 30 prospects list with Juan De La Cruz, an 18-year-old right-hander who's in the Low-A Jupiter starting rotation.Chisholm (left oblique strain) could be back in the Marlins lineup as soon as today. Andrew Nardi (left triceps inflammation) could be back on Tuesday. Check out more injury/rehab updates with our tracker below./news/tracking-miami-marlins-injury-rehab-updates/For the second straight trade deadline, the Marlins are trying to acquire Gleyber Torres from the Yankees, Randy Miller of NJ Advance Media reports. Torres would man second base with Luis Arraez sliding over to first. The Yanks wanted major league starting pitching in 2022 (Pablo López) and they're asking for it again, only this time, the Marlins don't have much to spare considering their own postseason ambitions. Miller explains that this scenario is contingent on New York making a separate move for a "quality bat" anyway.Elsewhere around the majors, the Cardinals commenced their sell-off by shipping Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton to the Rangers and Jordan Hicks to the Blue Jays. The Marlins are among the teams who've been linked to Jack Flaherty, another pending free agent who's expected to be moved prior to the trade deadline. The Angels brought in more reinforcements via veteran Rockies bats C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk. The Braves got Nicky López from the Royals. Having won eight of their last nine games, the Cubs decided they will hold onto Cody Bellinger through the deadline.We've got a new episode of Fish On First LIVE streaming tonight at 5:30 p.m. ET on /Twitch/Twitter. Special guest: Alex Carr. Super Subscribers, submit your series predictions before first pitch. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! The Marlins enter this new week with 49.6% playoff odds, per FanGraphs. They have a 54.5% chance to win their series opener against the Phillies. DSL Miami (11:00 a.m. ET) is at home, while FCL Marlins (12:00 p.m. ET) and DSL Marlins (11:00 a.m. ET) are on the road.The hellacious portion of the Marlins' 2023 schedule is finally here. Miami's next 19 games all come against teams with winning records (plus three games against the Padres, who I'd wager will have a winning record themselves by the time that matchup takes place).Glenn Geffner's View from the Bleachers analyzes these upcoming opponents in greater detail. Subscribe to his daily Substack to read more.We are in the midst of a stretch where the Fish On First staff is providing credentialed, on-site coverage for 31 out of 35 Marlins games. It's time-consuming and expensive to do it right, so your support is immensely appreciated! Please consider becoming a Super Subscriber below./fish-on-first-updates/super-subscriber-details/I rewatched Jake Eder's final pre-deadline start and came away feeling that the Marlins would still be selling low on him. They might not have a choice, unfortunately, if they're seeking quality big leaguers who are controllable beyond 2023.Alex Krutchik reports on how Skip Schumaker and his coaching staff held the Marlins clubhouse together during their longest losing streak of the season.Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald reflects on the career of Miguel Cabrera and the legacy he left with the Marlins, MLB, and Venezuelan baseball.Photo courtesy of Danis Sosa/Fish On First
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Nearly two years removed from his Tommy John surgery, how are potential Marlins trade partners currently valuing the left-hander?There were 103 players selected ahead of Jake Eder in the 2020 MLB Draft. Within a month of his professional debut, he had emerged as one of the top 103 prospects in the entire sport. He tore apart Double-A competition with well-located mid-90s fastballs and an unhittable slider. His selection to the 2021 Futures Game was a no-brainer. Eder was ascending fast...until he got stung by the injury bug. Because of the combination of Tommy John surgery and a fractured foot, it took 22 months for Eder just to make it back to the Double-A level. Even then, he was rusty. The Vanderbilt lefty's velocity hadn't returned and neither did his command. But Eder has gradually rounded back into his old form in recent weeks. I came away encouraged by his July 15 start against Birmingham despite the five earned runs attributed to him. The following week against Rocket City, he was even sharper. Then on Saturday night in Pearl, Mississippi, Eder pitched a masterpiece: 5.2 IP, 1 H, 2 R (1 ER), 2 BB, 10 K, 1 HR. https://milb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-07/29/d39e49b5-f5f76638-a392145e-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4The 24-year-old's fastball velocity touched 95 miles per hour several times. Eder consistently got ahead in the count and made his opponents take defensive swings at sliders just off the plate. He struck out nearly half of the batters he faced, allowed no hard contact outside of a solo home run and even fielded his position well. However, the vast majority of Eder's heaters were in the 91-93 mph range. And here's the big caveat: he had the platoon advantage against six of the nine Mississippi Braves starters. Typically, opposing lineups only start two or three lefties against Eder. Because of these unusual circumstances, he barely had to incorporate his changeup. This was Eder's final "audition" in advance of Tuesday's MLB trade deadline. Per multiple reports, including Craig Mish of SportsGrid and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, potential Miami Marlins trade partners have been eyeing him. Eder has re-established himself as one of the best prospects in the Marlins system, but I don't think he's shown enough yet to fully restore the value he previously had. A start like Saturday's further demonstrated why Eder has a high floor. He is a nightmare matchup for same-handed batters, striking out more than 40% of them during his minor league career. He will, at the very least, retire MLB lefties with ease in a relief role. Eder's ceiling is more up for debate until his velo ticks up and/or his changeup steals strikes against righties with more regularity. Baseball Trade Values estimates that Eder carries $8.6 million in surplus value. Flipping him for most rentals on the market would be an overpay, but his value is closely aligned with controllable veterans like Gleyber Torres (New York Yankees) and Tommy Edman (St. Louis Cardinals). That sounds about right. It'd be selling low on him. Despite the sexy results in his last start, I'm skeptical of Eder contributing to the Marlins' playoff pursuit. If the club is able to address it's short-term roster needs without dealing him, the focus should be on refining his changeup and continuing to increase his workload. Continuing to start once a week in the Southern League through summer's end and doing the same in the Arizona Fall League would give him the opportunity to surpass his pre-Tommy John innings total (71.1 IP) and enter 2024 spring training as a darkhorse rotation candidate.
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