Ely Sussman

My gut reaction to the Miami Marlins' acquisition of David Robertson a month ago was "inefficient but necessary." Their bullpen was in a rut throughout most of July, particularly lacking in any right-handed options you'd trust in high-leverage situations. Enter Robertson with his lifetime 145 ERA+ (100 represents league average) and 171 career saves, still thriving for the New York Mets at age 38. His résumé was stronger than that of any other reliever who changed teams in the days leading up to the MLB trade deadline. The Marlins were eight games above .500 (56-48) when they finalized the Robertson deal. The 2016 Fish were four games above (41-37) when they picked up Fernando Rodney from the San Diego Padres, likewise viewing him as a veteran floor-raiser for their 'pen in a year where they felt urgency to secure a postseason berth. Although the front office's process was seemingly more judicious this time around, the results have been disturbingly similar. Rodney had allowed one earned run all season prior to the trade and boasted a career-best 30.3% strikeout rate. That Marlins team already had a good closer in AJ Ramos, so the 39-year-old Dominican initially slotted in as their eighth-inning guy. https://coach-video.mlb.com/mlbam/2016/07/02/448066/coaching_video/cv_882379583_1200K.mp4This wasn't a classic "rental" scenario. Rodney came with a reasonable 2017 club option. If he had merely regressed to his pre-2016 career numbers during the second half of the season (3.71 ERA and 3.77 FIP), the Marlins likely would have exercised that option. However, Rodney bombed his way into free agency. Splitting time between setup and closing duties, he posted a 5.89 ERA and 4.97 FIP in 36.2 IP. That's sub-replacement level production. He created more traffic than I-95, averaging nearly two baserunners per inning pitched. There were seven appearances in which he allowed multiple earned runs. The 2016 Marlins finished 7.5 games back of the nearest playoff spot and didn't retain Rodney. In exchange for Rodney, the Marlins sent pitching prospect Chris Paddack to San Diego. Paddack had begun his minor league career with incredible peripheral stats, and leading up to the trade, he had authored three straight hitless starts for Low-A Greensboro. The Marlins must have thought they were selling high on the 20-year-old right-hander. They miscalculated. Although Paddack blew out his elbow later that summer, he cemented himself as a consensus Top 100 MLB prospect upon recovering from Tommy John surgery in 2018. He barely missed a National League All-Star selection as a rookie in 2019. Currently nearing a return from his second TJ surgery (now as a member of the Minnesota Twins), he has accrued 5.5 fWAR/2,3 bWAR in parts of four major league seasons. Any way you slice it, Robertson's Marlins tenure is going even worse than Rodney's did. You can compare their stats here. That's especially true when you adjust for the context of his appearances. No MLB pitcher has had a lower win probability added than Robertson over the last 30 days. He's been the weakest link in their 'pen, which is saying a lot considering the struggles of fellow trade acquisition Jorge López. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/01/692b2193-bc35c08d-0f95af08-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/19/c78b2d2b-041f75b3-498b67b1-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4The Marlins immediately inserted Robertson as their closer. It took only 10 awful innings of work for them to rethink that, manager Skip Schumaker confirmed on Sunday. https://fishonfirst.com/news/miami-marlins-playoff-race-update-8-28-23/Unlike Rodney, who the Marlins acquired before the halfway mark of the regular season, Robertson was a more conventional deadline pick-up. There is far less time for him to overcome his lousy first impression. And there's no 2024 option in his contract—barring a very improbable contract extension, he will be a free agent after the season. The Marlins traded prospects Marco Vargas and Ronald Hernández to the Mets in the Robertson deal, with Vargas being the headliner. Still only 18 years old, Vargas posted a 141 wRC+ in 86 rookie-level games prior to being moved. He has shown outstanding plate discipline and the skills to potentially stick as a middle infielder at higher levels. The Mets promoted him to their Low-A affiliate last week. In both of these trades, the Marlins sacrificed one of the best prospects from their already-thin farm system in order to augment their current playoff chances. Seven years later, the Fernando Rodney debacle remains notorious because of how he proved to be a liability while Chris Paddack's stock soared. Entering Monday, a 2023 Marlins October berth is less likely than a Jacob Stallings base hit, per FanGraphs. The David Robertson trade could be remembered with the same vitriol if they don't defy those odds.

Sunday's Gameshttps://fishonfirst.com/game-coverage/marlins-nationals-8-27-23/https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/27/69642e4c-f4a3e9a2-91c6fb89-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Marlins Podcast Episodes Sunday's Marlins MiLB Notes: 1B Troy Johnston (Jacksonville) regained the organizational lead with his 24th home run of the season. Jorge Alfaro was the only Jumbo Shrimp hitter who didn't contribute to their win. He's slashing .138/.194/.172 in seven games since signing his minor league deal with the Marlins. Not making a convincing case to be called up barring injury to a big league catcher. OF Brett Roberts (Jupiter) went 3-for-4 with 4 RBI and OF Jake DeLeo hit the game-winning home run for the Hammerheads. Pitching in relief, RHP Xavier Meachem earned his first professional win.Among MLB pitchers with at least 15 games started this season, Eury Pérez ranks third with a 2.68 earned run average. There are nine such pitchers with a sub-3.00 ERA and all of the others are at least 28 years old. Eury is only 20.Since debuting with the Marlins, David Robertson is dead last among all MLB pitchers in win probability added. He was elite in that department prior to the trade. The Marlins removed him from the closer's role prior to Sunday's game, as Craig Mish of SportsGrid first reported, hence why Tanner Scott recorded the save instead.Jorge Soler mashed his 10th home run of August and his 35th of the season. He's now sixth on the all-time Marlins single-season homer list behind only Marcell Ozuna, Gary Sheffield and Giancarlo Stanton (x3).Listen back to our weekly State of the Fish Twitter Space hosted by Grant Kiefer. It's also been uploaded to our podcast feed as usual.NL Wild Card race updates: the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Giants and Phillies won, while the Reds lost. The Marlins are three games back of the third Wild Card spot.Elsewhere around the majors, Freddie Freeman (.341) has surged to within nine points of Luis Arraez (.350) in the NL batting title race. Returning to Fenway Park for the first time as an opposing player, Mookie Betts went 7-for-15 against his former club with extra-base hits in each game of the series. The Brewers have won eight in a row and may have buried the Padres' playoff hopes once and for all by sweeping them.With 10 series remaining in the MLB regular season, Daniel Rodriguez is still clinging to a slim lead in our 2023 Prediction Time contest. All Super Subscribers are encouraged to play along with us.https://fishonfirst.com/super-subscribers/marlins-prediction-time-leaderboard/Entering this new week, the Marlins have 17.5% playoff odds, per FanGraphs. That's the lowest they've been since May.Alex Krutchik examines the extreme splits that Marlins hitters have depending on whether they're facing starters or relievers. All three of the underwhelming arms used by the Nats this past weekend enjoyed quality starts against them.https://fishonfirst.com/analysis/marlins-offensive-struggles-vs-starting-pitchers/Placed on the paternity list Friday, George Soriano is due back on the Marlins active roster for the start of the Citrus Series. Tommy Nance is the most likely candidate to be optioned in a corresponding move. Nance wasn't used in any of the last four games despite being active that entire time.The Jazz Chisholm Foundation is holding its launch event tonight in Miami. Many of Chisholm's Marlins teammates are expected to attend, including Sandy Alcantara, Luis Arraez, Josh Bell, Jesús Luzardo and Eury Pérez. Isaac Azout and Kevin Barral will cover the event for Fish On First.Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images

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Hey, it's progress. Friday night's announced attendance of 12,409 fans at LoanDepot Park bumped the 2023 season total to 918,506 through 65 Miami Marlins home games. With more than a month remaining in the MLB regular season, the Marlins have already exceeded last year's total and established a new single-season record for the Bruce Sherman ownership era. The 2022 club drew an average crowd of 11,204 for their 81 home games. That was the second-lowest turnout among MLB teams, ahead of only the Oakland Athletics. Miami's non-competitiveness didn't help—the Fish were below the .500 mark from early May onward and ultimately finished 18 games out of a playoff spot. In 2023, they've spent most of the season in the hunt for an October berth, entering Friday only two games out of the third National League Wild Card spot. Their average announced attendance has been 14,131. If the Marlins maintain that pace and play all 16 of their upcoming home games as scheduled, they'll total 1,144,600 fans. Context is crucial, though. Major League Baseball as a whole has seen a 9% increase in year-to-year attendance. Possible factors contributing to that include altering the pace of games via the pitch clock, getting another year further away from the COVID pandemic and implementing rule changes that disincentivize "tanking" among rebuilding teams. Also, LoanDepot Park's best-attended 2023 series has come against the New York Yankees, a high-profile opponent that wasn't on their 2022 schedule (and won't be coming to Miami in 2024). Just like last season, the Marlins rank 29th in fans per game, only ahead of the embarrassing A's. They're 2,386 per game behind the 28th-place Kansas City Royals. When Glenn Geffner surveyed his View from the Bleachers audience in June, the most common complaint from Marlins fans was the inconvenient location of LoanDepot Park—that's not changing anytime soon. The second-biggest issue they cited was the quality of the roster. If the Marlins sneak into the postseason or merely finish at .500, it's reasonable to expect a rise in season ticket-holders for next year. At least the cost to attend is reasonable: the Marlins' average ticket price of $22.98 is the cheapest in MLB, according to Team Marketing Report. That's the first time they've ever held that distinction, per Mike Ozanian of Forbes. So yeah, the Marlins have taken a step in the right direction, but three decades into the franchise's existence and more than a decade since moving into their own ballpark, attendance is still an issue that's hampering local revenue relative to their MLB competition and demonstrating the indifference most of South Florida feels toward them. Photo by Danis Sosa/Fish On First

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Thursday's GamesMarlins Podcast Episodes Thursday's Marlins MiLB Notes: OF Griffin Conine (Jacksonville) went 3-for-4 with his first Triple-A stolen base. He's slashing .371/.405/.657 in nine games since joining the Jumbo Shrimp. C Paul McIntosh (Pensacola) hit an eighth-inning, game-winning home run. Beloit lost a 13-inning thriller. In terms of innings, it was the second-longest game played by any Marlins minor league affiliate this season.NL Wild Card race updates: the Cubs and Diamondbacks won, while the Reds lost. The Marlins are two games back of the third Wild Card spot.Elsewhere around the majors, The Washington Post reports that Stephen Strasburg is retiring. Coming off winning 2019 World Series MVP honors, Strasburg signed a seven-year, $245 million contract to stay with the Nats. Unfortunately, injuries (most notably, thoracic outlet syndrome) have kept him off the mound. Strasburg is the all-time leader with 21 career wins against the Marlins and he made what turned out to be his final MLB start at LoanDepot Park on June 9, 2022. The Nationals enter this weekend having won four consecutive series. They're suddenly tied with the Mets for fourth place in the NL East. The Rangers have lost seven games in a row.We’ve got a new episode of Fish On First LIVE streaming tonight at 5:30 p.m. ET on /Twitch/Twitter. Special guest: Ryan Schlesinger. Super Subscribers, submit your series predictions before first pitch. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! https://fishonfirst.com/la-pop/The Marlins have a 64.8% chance to win their series opener against the Nationals, per FanGraphs. High-A Beloit (7:35 p.m. ET) and Single-A Jupiter (6:30 p.m. ET) are at home, while Triple-A Jacksonville (7:05 p.m. ET) and Double-A Pensacola (7:35 p.m. ET) are on the road.Kim Ng, Jeff Conine, Jake Burger and JT Chargois will be at Kensington Park Elementary for a school supplies distribution event this afternoon. Former Marlins closer Antonio Alfonseca and infielder Kurt Abbott are in the house tonight for Flashback Friday. After the final out, the Marlins are opening the roof for a drone light show.I wrote about how Josh Bell has gone five years since his last stolen base (he came sooooo close to swiping one earlier this season). He's the only everyday starter in the majors who's gone steal-less during that span.https://fishonfirst.com/analysis/josh-bell-stolen-base-drought/Enrollment for 2024 Marlins memberships is now open. The lowest price point averages out to $11 per game. Early enrollment continues through Sept. 5.Our partners at Homage have Flashback Friday-flavored products in their Miami Marlins collection. Shop here.Photo by Kelly Gavin/MLB Photos via Getty Images

Since being acquired on August 1, Josh Bell has been quick to positively impact the Miami Marlins in a multitude of ways. Most obviously, he's been doing it as a power-hitter. Bell leads the Marlins in slugging percentage this month and matched a record for most home runs through 18 games played with the franchise. No Miami player had ever gone deep from both sides of the plate in the same contest until he did. Bell's immense raw power has always been apparent—he just needed to lift the ball more frequently to fully capitalize on that. Since joining the Fish, Bell has reduced his groundball rate to 40.7%, the third-lowest of any individual month of his MLB career, per Baseball Savant. Even outside of his homers, Bell is consistently getting on base. He's done so in each of his first 20 Marlins games (.376 OBP). Ryan Mountcastle of the Orioles and Ozzie Albies of the Braves (who's on the injured list) are the only MLB players with longer active streaks. There have already been moments where the 261-pound Bell has pleasantly surprised me as a baserunner, hustling out of the box for a double and taking extra bases on his teammates' hits (he has gone first-to-home on doubles three separate times). Overall, though, Bell's legs are a liability, and he recognizes that. On September 27, 2018, with the Pittsburgh Pirates trying to manufacture their first run of the game, Bell drew a one-out walk against Jon Lester in the top of the third inning. The next batter, Francisco Cervelli, worked the count full and Bell took off on Lester's 3-2 pitch. Cervelli struck out swinging and catcher Willson Contreras attempted to throw out Bell, but Contreras dropped the ball on the exchange. Safe at second. https://coach-video.mlb.com/mlb/2018/09/28/bfee6420/1265b6ac/video_1538096902153_1200k.mp4Four teams, five years and more than 900 stolen base opportunities later, that remains Josh Bell's most recent steal. Bell has been caught stealing three times since then, once in 2019, once in 2022 and once earlier this season. On April 2, in his fourth game as a Cleveland Guardian, Bell got a good jump against Mariners left-hander Marco Gonzales. Even better, Gonzales had chosen to throw a slow breaking ball. Taking those factors into account along with Bell's speed and the pitch's location, Baseball Savant estimated that he had only a 13% chance of being caught. Mariners backstop Cal Raleigh defied those odds: https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/c9252cc6-18d9-4d68-a8b6-6a0a81efcdc2.mp4"I thought I had some fresh legs," Bell told Fish On First's Isaac Azout. "I was like, 'Challenge it!'" The Guardians did not oblige. Bell is 4-for-17 on stolen base attempts during his MLB career, the lowest success rate among active players with at least 10 attempts. His Sprint Speed has gradually declined during that period. He's at 25.9 ft/sec in 2023, which puts him in the 18th percentile among MLB qualifiers. "Once you get thrown out a couple of times, you get the red light pretty quickly in this game," Bell said. "So I'll leave the stolen bases to the real base threats." Still, it is notable that Bell has zero stolen bases over the last five seasons considering his availability and the frequency of his opportunities. He has played 617 games since 2019; only four other major leaguers have played even half as many contests—Daniel Vogelbach, Omar Narváez, Eloy Jiménez and teammate Jacob Stallings—without compiling any steals. That drought has endured despite MLB's recent rule changes intended to make stealing much easier (league-wide success rate has risen to 79.9%). Bell is due $16.5 million in 2024 unless he exercises the opt-out clause in his contract to pursue a larger deal. His post-trade excellence and the dearth of standout hitters in the upcoming free agent class have at least made it a conversation, though the likeliest outcome is still that he sticks around. The 31-year-old rates as only slightly better than a replacement-level player this season (0.3 fWAR/0.7 bWAR). Inactivity on the basepaths plays a role in suppressing his overall value. Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images

Wednesday's Gameshttps://fishonfirst.com/game-coverage/marlins-padres-8-23-23/https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/23/5d62e795-e27dba8a-98ed12b8-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Marlins Podcast Episodes Wednesday's Marlins MiLB Notes: Solid outing for Edward Cabrera (Jacksonville), who continues to show he's capable of providing length (5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K), though he threw only 60.4% of his pitches for strikes. OF Griffin Conine blasted a game-winning, two-run home run for the Jumbo Shrimp. Pensacola compiled 16 hits, including INF Jacob Berry's ninth homer of the season. In his latest rehab appearance, JT Chargois (Jupiter) pitched one hitless inning. RHP Jacob Miller started the game and matched his professional career high with eight strikeouts.After erupting for 11 runs in the opening game of their west coast road trip, the Marlins combined for only seven runs in the five subsequent games. Wednesday was the fourth time this season that they've been held scoreless during a Sandy Alcantara start, and he vented about it. Josh Bell continues to make steady contributions, reaching base in all 20 games of his Marlins career thus far.NL Wild Card race updates: the Cubs, Giants and Reds (x2) won, while the Phillies lost. San Diego's victory clinched the season series against the Marlins and would give them the tiebreaker if necessary. The Marlins are two games back of the third Wild Card spot.Elsewhere around the majors, Shohei Ohtani has been diagnosed with a torn right UCL. He previously suffered the same injury in 2018 and underwent Tommy John surgery, continuing to serve as a designated hitter during rehab, but obviously, he had to pause his pitching. It's especially complicated timing for such a setback considering that Ohtani will become a free agent this offseason. Aaron Judge had the first three-homer game of his career as the Yankees snapped their nine-game losing streak.High-A Beloit (7:35 p.m. ET) and Low-A Jupiter (6:30 p.m. ET) are at home, while Triple-A Jacksonville (6:15 p.m. ET) and Double-A Pensacola (7:35 p.m. ET) are on the road.Loud Marlins Fan is giving away an autographed card of a mystery player in the Marlins organization. Became a Fish On First Super Subscriber today to be eligible to win it!https://fishonfirst.com/fish-on-first-updates/super-subscriber-details/Glenn Geffner's View from the Bleachers makes the case that Luis Arraez should be re-installed as the Marlins leadoff hitter. Arraez has recorded only one multi-hit game in 14 starts since being lowered to the second spot in the order.Alex Eisert of FanGraphs believes the Marlins made a "premature and futile attempt at a postseason push" considering all the indications that the team was bound to regress during the second half of the season. Happy 26th birthday to Marlins INF Cobie Fletcher-Vance. He got his first taste of the Triple-A level earlier this season, but Fletcher-Vance has been mainly used as Double-A Pensacola's platoon third baseman. The Marlins acquired him originally in the minor league phase of the 2021 MLB Rule 5 Draft. During his two seasons in the Marlins org, Fletcher-Vance has slashed .247/.315/.336 (74 wRC+).https://fishonfirst.com/at-the-ballpark/cobie-fletcher-vance-marlins-fan-jacksonville-interview/Photo by Rob Leiter/MLB Photos via Getty Images

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Tuesday's Gameshttps://fishonfirst.com/game-coverage/marlins-padres-8-22-23/https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/22/06ae4b92-71555607-2993bf53-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Marlins Podcast Episodes Tuesday's Marlins MiLB Notes: Garrett Hampson (Jacksonville) went 3-for-4. He's hitting .397 in 13 Triple-A games since being optioned earlier this month. C/1B Bennett Hostetler (Pensacola) now has nine home runs since the beginning of July, during which time he's slashing .333/.416/.731. Former Marlins prospect INF Kahlil Watson played against Beloit as a member of the Lake County Captains. He went 0-for-6 with four strikeouts. The FCL Marlins finished their season with a 27-25 record. Expect several players from that roster to get bumped up to the Hammerheads, most obviously undrafted free agent 1B Angelo DiSpigna (.373/.515/.627 slash line in 17 FCL games).Jesús Luzardo allowed only three baserunners in six scoreless innings against the Padres as the Marlins pitched their first shutout since June 29. Andrew Nardi's inning of relief was particularly electric—he struck out the side in the bottom of the seventh and threw the four fastest pitches of his MLB career (topping out at 98.8 mph).Avisaíl García strained his left hamstring while stepping on the first base bag. He's destined for an injured list stint with no guarantee of returning before season's end. The Marlins could go in several different directions with their corresponding call-up move, but I think it's time for Triple-A hitting king Xavier Edwards to get another shot. He could be the team's backup at second base, third base and shortstop with Jon Berti receiving a larger share of his playing time in left field. However, I suspect the Marlins will instead recall the versatile veteran Hampson despite his more limited ceiling as a player.https://fishonfirst.com/news/tracking-miami-marlins-injury-rehab-updates/NL Wild Card race updates: the Diamondbacks, Phillies and Reds won, while the Cubs and Giants lost. Zac Gallen's 14th win tied him for the major league lead in that department. The Marlins are one game back of the third Wild Card spot.Elsewhere around the majors, the Rays placed Wander Franco on administrative leave. The most recent high-profile major leaguer to be given that treatment was Trevor Bauer in 2021, who went through his own legal troubles and was ultimately released by the Dodgers. The Mariners collected their eighth consecutive win to move within a game of the AL West division lead. Mike Trout went 1-for-4 in his return from a seven-week IL stint.The Marlins have a 42.9% chance to win their series finale against the Padres, per FanGraphs. High-A Beloit (7:35 p.m. ET) and Low-A Jupiter (6:30 p.m. ET) are at home, while Triple-A Jacksonville (6:15 p.m. ET) and Double-A Pensacola (7:35 p.m. ET) are on the road.Covering at Petco Park, our own Isaac Azout interviewed old friend Garrett Cooper about his trade deadline deal, his early impressions of the Padres and favorite memories from his Marlins tenure. Please subscribe to the Fish On First YouTube account! Our partners at FOCO have dozens of products in their Miami Marlins collection. Shop here.Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

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