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Everything posted by Ely Sussman
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In a baffling turn of events, the Miami Marlins are parting ways with general manager Kim Ng, as first reported by Craig Mish of SportsGrid. The first woman GM in MLB history leaves the organization after only three seasons. Here's the statement that Marlins chairman and principal owner Bruce Sherman sent out Monday morning: And here is Ng's side of it as relayed through Tyler Kepner of The Athletic: Longtime Marlins assistant GM Brian Chattin will serve as interim GM during the search progress, according to a since-deleted tweet by Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. The Marlins had a .453 winning percentage (220-266 record) during the Ng era, but that includes a 15-win improvement from 2022 to 2023 and the franchise's first "normal" postseason berth in 20 years (excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign). Operating with Sherman's limited payroll and a barren farm system, Ng excelled in trades to construct a tight-knit club with a knack for winning tight games. It was widely known as far back as spring training that Ng was entering the final guaranteed year of her contract. Even if 2023 had not been so successful, the idea of her running baseball operations without any long-term security was absurd. The Fish On First staff persistently advocated for Sherman to sign her to an extension. According to Ng's words above, they were attempting to find common ground after the Marlins were bounced from the NL Wild Card Series, but failed to do so. At the center of the disagreement, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports, was Sherman's desire to hire an additional Marlins executive for Ng to report to. Although her title would remain the same, it'd essentially be a demotion to no longer serve as the lead baseball operations decision-maker. Looking at this from Sherman's perspective, Ng was inefficient in free agency, whiffing on sub-replacement-level veterans Avisaíl García ($53M), Jean Segura ($17M) and Johnny Cueto ($8.5M), though coming out okay on Jorge Soler ($36M). Even with many prospects graduating from eligibility or being used as trade capital during her tenure, the lack of impact talent left in the pipeline is worrisome. Their existing player development approach clearly needs to be adjusted. Although I woke up on Monday expecting Ng to stay with the Marlins, I can't say that I'm shocked about this news. After all, she was handpicked by Derek Jeter, who left his CEO position in early 2022. Ng did not hold a formal end-of-season press conference with the media and every day that passed by without reassurance about her status made a break-up seem slightly more plausible. I'm disappointed that the organization couldn't find a way to maintain continuity at such a crucial position coming off an exhilarating year. Ng ought to be highly coveted by other MLB teams in free agency. The Boston Red Sox seek new baseball ops leadership and the New York Mets are in the market for a GM to report to David Stearns. Despite being repeatedly passed over for top executive jobs in the early 2000s, she now has tangible results to validate her decades of front office experience. Aside from Chattin, internal replacement candidates include fellow assistant GMs Dan Greenlee and Oz Ocampo. Photo by Jasen Vinlove/Miami Marlins
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Both options who are more analytically inclined than Ng. The ideal configuration to me would've been hiring one of them as GM and elevating Ng to president of baseball ops.
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Sunday's GamesLHP Sean Nolin became the latest eligible player in the Marlins organization to elect minor league free agency. Nolin made just one forgettable mop-up relief appearance for the big league team, spending most of the year on the injured list.Elsewhere around the majors, Jordan Montgomery outdueled Justin Verlander in ALCS Game 1 as the Rangers shut out the Astros. Texas rookie outfielder Evan Carter extended his postseason hit streak to six games (the Rangers have won all six of those games). Giants assistant coach Alyssa Nakken interviewed for the team's managerial vacancy. She's believed to be the first woman ever to receive a formal interview for an MLB managerial job.Baseball won't be included in the 2024 Paris Olympics, but it's coming back for the 2028 edition in Los Angeles. The sport was part of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics after being absent in 2012 and 2016. The United States hasn't won the gold medal since 2000.Game 2 of the ALCS is coming up today, followed by Zac Gallen and Zack Wheeler facing off in the NLCS opener. The Phillies are 10-2 in postseason home games dating back to last year.Our 2023 Marlins Season Review series keeps expanding. Check back daily for more articles from the FOF staff.On Friday, Luis Arraez and Charles Johnson paid a visit to Joe DiMaggio Children's Hospital to deliver Totes for Hope comfort bags to patients. They spent quality time with the kids as Noah Berger documented.Happy 22nd birthday to LHP Dax Fulton. The former second-round draft pick had established himself as one of the Marlins' most promising prospects entering 2023, but his season was cut short by left elbow surgery.Lastly, thanks to Super Subscriber David K. Tobin for digging this up: Photo by Noah Berger/Fish On First
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Enjoy top plays from Miami Marlins catcher Will Banfield! Banfield spent his age-23 season with the Double-A Pensacola Blue Wahoos. In 115 games played, he slashed .258/.302/.472 (100 wRC+) with 23 HR and 3 SB. He also had a 28.3% caught stealing rate. The Marlins selected Banfield in Competitive Balance Round B (69th overall pick) of the 2018 MLB Draft. He's likely to advance to the Triple-A level next year and even has a decent chance to break through to the majors depending on what moves the organization makes to address the catcher position. Where would you rank Banfield among the top prospects in the Marlins organization?
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FanPost: What are the priorities this offseason?
Ely Sussman replied to Hans Herrera's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
I largely agree with this. One topic I want to dive into soon is what happened to Fortes' bat. Exciting debut in 2021 and showed a lot of promise in early 2022 as well, but now his struggles greatly outweigh his initial success. Given the bad alternatives on the market, it wouldn't be the worst thing to bet on Fortes bouncing back and bringing in a veteran on a minor league deal to battle with Banfield and McIntosh for the backup job. So I have shortstop as the higher priority for this particular offseason. -
Thursday's GamesMarlins Podcast Episodes Thursday's AFL/winter ball notes: IF Nasim Nuñez went 1-for-4 with 2 RBI and C Paul McIntosh went 1-for-1 with 2 BB and 2 SB.Elsewhere around the majors, the Phillies knocked out the favored Braves in the NLDS for the second straight October. Nick Castellanos became the first player ever with consecutive multi-homer postseason games and Trea Turner went 4-for-4 with a home run of his own. Three years since his tenure as Marlins president of baseball operations ended, Michael Hill is reportedly a target for the Red Sox. Hill is MLB's senior vice president of baseball operations. He's got a connection to the Boston area as a Harvard University alum.The majority of Fish On First Twitter followers say it's easier to accept that the Marlins were eliminated by the Phils now that they've beaten Atlanta as well. The poll is still open, so vote for yourself.Postseason baseball resumes on Sunday with ALCS Game 1 between the Rangers and Astros. The Phillies host the Diamondbacks for the NLCS opener on Monday.Our 2023 Marlins Season Review has recently covered Jazz Chisholm Jr. Check back daily for more articles from the FOF staff."I think that a lot more focus needs to be on individual teams to do better and not just rely on revenue-sharing," Yankees president Randy Levine said at the Sportico Invest in Sports Conference regarding the business of baseball. "You can't have two Florida teams averaging 15,000 fans." Buoyed in part by the Yankees' robust revenue streams, the Rays and Marlins both performed better this season than his team did.Voting for the 2023 Hank Aaron Award closes tonight! Luis Arraez is among the National League nominees. Photo by Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos
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Wednesday's GamesMarlins Podcast Episodes Wednesday's AFL/winter ball notes: Peoria's undefeated streak was finally snapped. RHP Ike Buxton worked around a lot of traffic on the bases (4.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 HR) and used his changeup more frequently than I've ever seen him before. 3B Jacob Berry recorded singles from both sides of the plate. DH Paul McIntosh came to the plate in the top of the ninth inning representing the potential tying run, but he got the green light on a 3-0 count and flew out to end the game.Elsewhere around the majors, the Astros and Diamondbacks both clinched their Division Series matchups. It's the seventh straight year that the Astros have advanced to the ALCS. Dating back to mid-July, Houston's Bryan Abreu has gone 31 consecutive innings without allowing a run. The Dodgers were doomed up awful starting pitching performances in all three of their games, though superstars Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman struggled mightily themselves, combining to go 1-for-21 at the plate. The Phillies homered six times (two each by Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos) on their way to a Game 3 victory. Widely regarded as MLB's best team during the regular season, the Braves face elimination tonight. They'll send Spencer Strider to the mound to extend the series. Strider's history at Citizens Bank Park has been great...with the exception of the postseason start he made there in 2022 (2.1 IP, 3 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 HR).FanGraphs debuted sortable postseason leaderboards. I had some fun combining stats from multiple Marlins playoff runs.Listed at 220 pounds while he was with the Marlins this season, Jean Segura reveals that at the time of his trade (and subsequent release) in August, he had actually gone up to 235. Segura has since slimmed down to 215, thanks to Miami-based trainer Nicolas Soto. Seems clear that he'll attempt to resume his playing career in 2024. As much as the Marlins valued Segura's intangibles, it's hard to imagine a reunion.https://www.instagram.com/p/CyQ94aLgETK/?hl=en&e=f753e199-cb44-46e9-ac25-782ad98fd2b1&g=5Glenn Geffner's View from the Bleachers asks whether Marlins owner Bruce Sherman is willing to spend what it takes to retain Jorge Soler and/or Josh Bell.Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald gives an overview of potential 2024 shortstop solutions available to the Marlins in free agency and within their organization.The Rolling Stones and Major League Baseball are selling limited-edition vinyl of Hackney Diamonds featuring custom art for each of the 30 MLB teams in pocket jackets. You can pre-order the Marlins one here.Voting for the 2023 Hank Aaron Award remains open through Friday. Luis Arraez is among the National League nominees.On this day 20 years ago, with the Marlins facing elimination, Josh Beckett extended the NLCS by throwing a gem of a start in Game 5. This is also the anniversary of Liván Hernández—with some help from home plate umpire Eric Gregg—striking out 15 Braves batters in 1997 NLCS Game 5. That still stands as the Marlins single-game postseason record for K's.Photo by Eliot J. Schechter/Getty Images
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FanGraphs was already a go-to resource for our Miami Marlins-related research. Further solidifying that status, they've just added postseason leaderboards. It had previously been a tedious process to compare postseason performances from different years. This provides us with brand new ways to analyze the franchise's four playoff trips (1997, 2003, 2020 and 2023) and the individual players who took part in them. As the only hitter with a prominent role during both of the Marlins' deep postseason runs, Jeff Conine holds the top spot in many offensive counting stats—32 career games, 31 career hits, 15 career runs scored, etc. The franchise record for runs batted in belongs to Iván "Pudge" Rodríguez (17). Miguel Cabrera leads in home runs with four. Gary Sheffield has nearly twice as many postseason walks as any other Marlin with 20. You should be unsurprised to learn that the all-time Marlins postseason leaders in win probability added are Josh Beckett (1.36 WPA) and Pudge (1.19 WPA), who formed an indispensable battery for the 2003 World Series champs. It would've taken me a bunch of guesses to come up with third-ranked Carl Pavano (0.89 WPA). Pavano pitched to a 1.40 ERA in 2003. His World Series Game 4 start in '03 was incredible, but he had to settle for a no-decision because of Ugueth Urbina's blown save (the Marlins ultimately won that game in extra innings). https://videopress.com/v/vGYVGp1Z?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=trueThe Marlins have a .600 winning percentage (24-16 record) in postseason games. That's despite a 82 wRC+ in those games (100 represents league average). It is a shocking stat at first glance, but run-scoring in the postseason is almost always depressed compared to the regular season. MLB postseason teams combined for a 87 wRC+ in 1997 and 82 wRC+ in 2003, for example. Marlins starting pitchers have a 4.98 ERA in the postseason. That Urbina slip-up notwithstanding, relievers have done well to clean up their messes with a 3.16 mark. The disparity between their performances is far less pronounced in terms of FIP (4.39 for SP vs. 3.97 for RP). In total, 98 players have appeared in Marlins postseason games: 55 hitters and 43 pitchers. Members of the one-and-done club include Yuli Gurriel (2023), Starling Marte (2020), David Robertson (2023), Nick Vincent (2020), John Wehner (1997) and Joey Wendle (2023). Andrew Nardi temporarily owns the worst postseason ERA in Marlins history (10.80). Unlike the one-and-doners listed above, Nardi has many years of club control ahead of him, so hopefully he'll get another opportunity to remedy that. Go here to continue exploring the postseason leaderboards. Photo by Elsa/Getty Images
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Tuesday's GamesMarlins Podcast Episodes Tuesday's AFL/winter ball notes: Another blowout win for the Peoria Javelinas, 17-4 over the Glendale Desert Dogs. IF Nasim Nuñez went 2-for-4 with a walk and continues to split starts between shortstop and second base. His strikeout rate is only 6.7%. Brief, scoreless relief appearance for RHP Zach McCambley (0.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K).Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s right turf toe surgery was successful, he wrote on Instagram while showing a photo of his walking boot.Daniel Castano elected minor league free agency. The left-hander acquired from the Cardinals in the Marcell Ozuna trade spent six seasons in the Marlins organization and made major league appearances in each of the last four (24 G/17 GS, 88.2 IP, 4.47 ERA, 5.11 FIP, 1.49 WHIP, 0.2 fWAR). Castano's departure makes it even more imperative that the Marlins shop for starting rotation depth this offseason.Elsewhere around the majors, the Astros routed the Twins to take a 2-1 ALDS lead, with José Abreu driving in five of Houston's nine runs. The Rangers became the first team to advance to the League Championship Series round. They're a perfect 5-0 in the postseason.The Astros and Diamondbacks have the chance to punch their ALCS/NLCS tickets today. RHP Ike Buxton makes his second AFL start (it'll be livestreamed here).Our 2023 Marlins Season Review has recently covered Eury Pérez and Avisaíl García. Check back daily for more articles from the FOF staff.DunkinMuse completed their Twitter megathread with highlights from every Marlins series.Voting for the 2023 Hank Aaron Award remains open through Friday. Luis Arraez is among the National League nominees.Photo by Chris Coduto/MLB Photos
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Offishial news, 10/10/23: Chisholm getting turf toe surgery
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
Monday's GamesMarlins Podcast Episodes Monday's AFL/winter ball updates: All three Marlins hitters were in the lineup as Peoria extended their undefeated streak. 3B Jacob Berry went 0-for-2 with a walk and a hit by pitch. C Paul McIntosh went 1-for-2 with a hit by pitch. SS Nasim Nuñez went 0-for-4 and turned two double plays.Today, Jazz Chisholm Jr. is undergoing surgery to repair turf toe in his right foot, according to MLB.com's Christina De Nicola. It'll be 12 weeks until he can return to wearing a shoe and begin a running progression. Chisholm suffered the injury way back on May 13 and it was understood that he'd eventually need surgery. He played through it in the meantime and started in center field for the Marlins on a nearly-daily basis during the final two months of the 2023 season. Barring unforeseen setbacks, he should be fully ready for spring training.Elsewhere around the majors, Zack Wheeler carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning, but the Braves bashed their way out of a 4-0 deficit to even their series with the Phillies. Austin Riley hit the game-winning, two-run homer in the eighth inning. After another strong road start from Zac Gallen, the Diamondbacks are a win away from upsetting the Dodgers.Congrats to Fish On First's Kevin Barral on earning his second career Marlins Jeopardy victory. , dedicated entirely to 2023 season trivia. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! https://fishonfirst.com/la-pop/Both of the ALDS matchups resume today. The Rangers have an opportunity to complete a sweep, though understandably there will be a lot of viewers pulling for Israeli-American Orioles starter Dean Kremer in light of the ongoing conflict taking place in Israel.From Skip Schumaker's new , he describes how "fantastic" analytics have been at helping him determine when to utilize certain relievers based on the swing planes of opposing hitters. That's part of a broader exchange about how he decides when to side with expected stats versus trusting his eyes and his gut.Louis Addeo-Weiss explains why Seth Lugo, Mark Canha and Austin Hedges could be under-the-radar fits for the Marlins.https://fishonfirst.com/analysis/mlb-free-agency-2024-under-the-radar-targets/Voting for the 2023 Hank Aaron Award remains open through Friday. Luis Arraez is among the National League nominees.Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images -
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Relive all of the ups and downs of the 2023 Miami Marlins with our Fish On First Season Review, containing detailed articles about a wide variety of players. The FOF staff analyzes the individual impact that each of them had and what it means for their future with the organization. This installment focuses on right-handed reliever Matt Barnes. 2023 TimelineJanuary 30—acquired via trade along with cash from the Boston Red Sox in exchange for Richard BleierApril 1—made Marlins debut (1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K)June 2—placed on injured list with left hip impingementJune 27—began minor league rehab assignmentJuly 4—scratched from scheduled rehab appearanceJuly 13—announced that he and wife Chelsea are expecting a child in January 2024 (it's a boy, they later added)July 25—underwent season-ending left hip femoral acetabular impingement surgerySeason stats: 24 G/1 GS, 21.1 IP, 5.48 ERA, 4.15 FIP, 1.64 WHIP, 0.1 fWAR (age 33) The Marlins recognized that they needed to do something during the 2022-23 offseason to change the composition of their bullpen. They pounced when the Red Sox designated Matt Barnes for assignment, seeing plenty of bounce-back potential in the former All-Star and World Series champion. Coming off his least effective Marlins campaign, lefty Richard Bleier went the other way in the trade, and Boston even included enough cash to bridge the gap between their salaries. Creative thinking, but it turned out to be a lose-lose transaction. Rookie manager Skip Schumaker did not name a traditional closer during 2023 spring training. Rather, the Marlins planned to mix-and-match their way through high-leverage situations. Barnes would be among those considered for save opportunities, Schumaker said. Barnes, who had 47 career saves in Boston, did not add to that total this season. He was mainly utilized in the sixth, seventh and eighth innings. He even "opened" a game for the Marlins on May 6, his first start since 2015. On the few occasions that he pitched in the ninth, the Fish were trailing by multiple runs. Barnes didn't miss enough bats to earn Schumaker's trust—he set a new career low in whiff rate. Prior to 2022, Barnes had struck out 31.0% of opposing batters in his MLB career, an elite mark. That plummeted below the league average to 19.3% during his final Red Sox season. Barnes only improved slightly in that department as a Marlin, to 20.2%. Declining fastball velocity made it more difficult for Barnes to generate swinging strikes. Accustomed to sitting in the mid-to-high 90s, his average velo dipped to 93.4 miles per hour this season. Opponents posted a .395 batting average against his four-seamer. Barnes added a splitter to his pitch mix, as explained on , but used it only 6.0% of the time. To be clear, though, the main issue was not Barnes' performance: it was his lack of availability. Entering May 21, he owned a solid 3.44 earned run average through 19 appearances. Then he slipped on the mound at San Francisco's Oracle Park (h/t MLB.com's Christina De Nicola) and never got back to full strength. In Barnes' final game before landing on the IL (June 1 vs. the Padres), he allowed five earned runs while recording only one out. That inflated his ERA to 5.48, his worst-ever mark for a single season. Barnes continued to spend a lot of time around the team following his hip surgery, though it's unlikely that he would've been able to pitch no matter how deep they advanced into the postseason. Highlights/Lowlightshttps://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-04/29/250f1b46-d57f608b-823af451-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Barnes records hold vs. Cubs (4/29/23)https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-06/01/b2364af1-da887e80-9a6dc84b-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Padres put up crooked number vs. Barnes in final 2023 appearance (6/1/23)https://www.instagram.com/p/Cx3GoPuu5uW/?hl=enFuture with the MarlinsBarnes' contract comes with a club option for the 2024 season. According to Cot's Contracts, the value of that option rose from $8 million to $9 million based on games finished. Either way, that's a steep price for a 33-year-old middle reliever, especially for a team like the Marlins preparing to spend on hitters at several positions and a starting pitcher to fill Sandy Alcantara's shoes. Expect them to pay his $2.75 million buyout instead. It is still possible that the Marlins bring Barnes back on a cheaper one-year deal, but he will have the freedom to negotiate with other teams in free agency once that option gets declined. Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images
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Sunday's GamesRostering eight Marlins prospects, the Peoria Javelinas (5-0-1) have been the Arizona Fall League's best team through one week of action. The team's hitters boast a collective .326/.436/.498 slash line (an annual reminder that the AFL is an extreme hitter-friendly environment). Check out their updated stats and highlights here.Elsewhere around the majors, Pablo López pitched incredibly (7.0 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 K) to lead the Twins to a series-tying victory over the Astros. Carlos Correa drove in three runs against his former club. In the highest-scoring game of the postseason so far, the Rangers extended their Wild Card Series lead over the Orioles to 2-0. Texas drew 11 walks, three of which loaded the bases for Mitch Garver, whose grand slam broke the game wide open. Braves right-hander Kyle Wright, who spent most of 2023 on the injured list, is likely to miss all of 2024 following shoulder surgery.We’ve got a new Marlins Jeopardy edition of Fish On First LIVE streaming tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET on /Twitch/Twitter. Thanks to Sean Millerick, Romeo Rodriguez and Alex for submitting audience questions. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! https://fishonfirst.com/la-pop/Both of the National League Division Series matchups resume tonight, with the favored Braves and Dodgers seeking bounce-back wins after being outscored 14-2 in their respective series openers.Our 2023 Marlins Season Review series has recently covered Sandy Alcantara and Matt Barnes. Check back daily for more articles from the FOF staff.Jon Jay "drew rave reviews" in his debut season as Marlins first base coach, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, and could be a candidate for managerial vacancies this offseason. The Marlins are "saddened and heartbroken" about the war that has broken out in recent days between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas. "We stand in solidarity with our South Florida community and the people of Israel for an end to terrorism and we pray for peace," the statement reads.Voting for the 2023 Hank Aaron Award remains open through Friday. Luis Arraez is among the National League nominees.Photo by Noah Berger/Fish On First
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Relive all of the ups and downs of the 2023 Miami Marlins with our Fish On First Season Review, containing detailed articles about a wide variety of players. The FOF staff analyzes the individual impact that each of them had and what it means for their future with the organization. This installment focuses on right-handed pitcher Sandy Alcantara. 2023 TimelineMarch 11—pitched for Dominican Republic in the World Baseball ClassicApril 22—missed start due to right biceps tendinitisSeptember 6—placed on injured list with right forearm flexor strain; diagnosis later revised to right UCL sprainSeptember 21—pitched four scoreless innings in rehab start with Triple-A JacksonvilleSeptember 23—announced that he's been shut down for the rest of the season after experiencing forearm tightnessOctober 6—underwent Tommy John surgerySeason stats: 28 G/28 GS, 184.2 IP, 4.14 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, 2.9 fWAR (age 27) From start to finish, Sandy Alcantara's year was frustrating. Alcantara was so proud to represent his native Dominican Republic in the WBC, conveniently being hosted at LoanDepot Park. The reigning NL Cy Young award winner was deservedly selected to start their opening game and projected to pitch as many as three times if they reached the championship game (as they were favored to do). Instead, the D.R. was the tournament's biggest disappointment, losing his lone outing and failing to advance beyond pool play. In his 2023 Marlins debut, Alcantara had poor control and recorded only two strikeouts. He would rebound impressively with a shutout against the Minnesota Twins, just to get annihilated by the Philadelphia Phillies in his following start (9 ER in 4.0 IP). That kind of inconsistency permeated throughout the majority his season, not just from game to game but even inning to inning. Alcantara would sometimes hit a wall going the third time through an opposing lineup. In other cases, he'd allow a crooked number early before cruising the rest of the way. There was no obvious button to press to restore him to ace status. Just like in 2022, Alcantara threw exclusively to Jacob Stallings. They stuck with a familiar pitch selection strategy this season, aspiring to be unpredictable by using sinkers, changeups, four-seam fastballs and sliders each at least 20% of the time. A lot of Alcantara's regression can be attributed to his changeup. It went from MLB's best offspeed weapon (plus-24 run value, per Baseball Savant) to a below-average offering (minus-4). He threw it with slightly less velocity and generated slightly less movement. It limited his effectiveness against left-handed batters in particular. After recording 78 strikeouts on his cambio in 2022, that total plunged to 37 in 2023. Alcantara's 2022 Statcast percentile rankings | Baseball SavantAlcantara's 2023 Statcast percentile rankings | Baseball SavantAlcantara's earned run average continued to float around 5.00 deep into June, though plain ol' bad luck was exaggerating the severity of his struggles. He delivered two more complete games over his final 13 starts and didn't allow more than four earned runs in any of those 13, finishing with a 108 ERA+ (8% better than league average). Alcantara's efficiency and stamina benefited the rest of Miami's pitching staff. Prior to the UCL injury, he was once again vying for the major league lead in innings pitched. The Marlins needed their relievers to be sharp in high-leverage situations to repeatedly protect narrow leads. With Alcantara providing so much length every fifth game, they could get sufficient rest. Alcantara says he noticed his injury at the end of his Sept. 3 start against the Washington Nationals. After a brief rest period, the Marlins gradually began ramping him up again. Despite positive results in his Sept. 21 rehab start, it was uncomfortable to watch—his velocity was down and he had changed the shape of his breaking ball. Valiant effort, but Alcantara and the Marlins determined that the best path forward was going under the knife. Highlights/Lowlightshttps://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-04/04/45713d00-e01cbe93-526ab78a-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Complete game vs. Twins (4/4/23)https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-07/26/0bcf6847-391cbd74-6414e537-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Complete game vs. Rays (7/26/23)https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/12/cab57eca-644870b9-df901def-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Complete game vs. Yankees (8/12/23) Future with the MarlinsIf not for a contract extension signed two years ago, Sandy Alcantara's Marlins tenure would likely be over. He was originally due to enter free agency after the 2024 season. Assuming no dramatic setbacks during rehab, he would've been in line to receive offers akin to Justin Verlander when Verlander was in the same situation: two-year, $50 million guarantee with an opt out after the first year. I can't imagine the thrifty Marlins winning that bidding war. Thankfully for all involved, he's locked up through 2026 with a club option for 2027. That extension was derided as obscenely team-friendly at the time, but seeing MLB's ultimate workhorse succumb to Tommy John is a reminder of how prevalent elbow injuries have become for pitchers, and why it's tempting to secure a lifetime of riches while you can. I'm sure Alcantara and his loved ones are grateful to have $45.9 million on the way over the next three-plus seasons regardless of what his post-TJ career looks like. Alcantara says he plans to "be around the team as much as possible" in 2024 when his rehab schedule allows. The Marlins hope to get a mostly full season of him as a starter in 2025. Photo by Danis Sosa/Fish On First
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