Ely Sussman

Whenever one of the top MLB free agents signs with a National League team—particular a team that shares a division with the Miami Marlins—it's worth discussing at Fish On First. Veteran right-hander Aaron Nola is remaining with the Philadelphia Phillies on a seven-year deal, the Phillies confirmed Sunday afternoon. It guarantees Nola $172 million, per multiple reports. USA Today's Bob Nightengale was first to say that an agreement was reached, Jeff Passan of ESPN nailed down the guaranteed dollar amount and Jon Heyman of the New York Post added that there are no opt outs or options in the contract. A homegrown Phillie, Nola broke through to the majors in 2015. He has pitched 150 ⅓ innings against the Marlins during that span, second only to Max Scherzer. That total includes his seven scoreless frames on October 4 in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-10/04/59907702-b43284db-e5217dfb-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Nola receives a $24.6M average annual value despite a lifetime 113 ERA+ and a 102 ERA+ over the last three seasons (100 represents the league average). What stands out most about him is durability. He's been practically injury-free throughout the last six seasons, exceeding 200 innings thrice. That is not totally predictive of how he'll hold up in his 30s, but must have played a role in the length of the deal. The frugal Marlins obviously were not in the mix to sign Nola, but the Atlanta Braves were, according to Passan. Heyman adds that Nola turned down more money from another suitor. It's unclear whether he's referring to the Braves, who ordinarily avoid long-term free agent commitments. Compared to last offseason, the 2023-24 free agent market has been moving slowly. Hopefully Nola's signing causes something of a domino effect, at least among the starting pitchers. Photo by Sam Navarro/Getty Images

The 2023 Major League Baseball season was memorable for its loose correlation between winning percentage and team payroll. The Miami Marlins made the postseason and the similarly thrifty Arizona Diamondbacks advanced all the way to the World Series, outdoing the star-laden New York Mets, New York Yankees and San Diego Padres. The Baltimore Orioles, who were MLB's cheapest team outside of the embarrassing Oakland Athletics, led the American League in victories. That was likely just an outlier, though. Principal owner Bruce Sherman is hopeful that his new president of baseball operations, Peter Bendix, can implement the Tampa Bay Rays' best practices and perennially defy the odds. Bendix obviously won't be able to pull that off in a single winter. If you're rooting for the Marlins to be a postseason threat again in 2024, you're rooting for Sherman to spend money. For this franchise in particular, one with several glaring roster holes to address and thin on desirable prospects to use as trade chips, increased spending will be crucial to bringing in high-end talent. Sherman slashed the Marlins' payroll early in his ownership tenure, but has gradually upped his investment during the post-COVID years. Where do things currently stand as we enter the meaty portion of the offseason? Guaranteed ContractsPhoto by Megan Briggs/Getty ImagesJosh Bell ($16.5M), Avisaíl García ($12M), Sandy Alcantara ($9.3M) and Jon Berti ($3.625M) are already on the books. Bell exercised his player option rather than head back into free agency, so that tells you he feels this salary is higher than he would've gotten elsewhere. García is coming off consecutive seasons of sub-replacement level production while Alcantara is going to miss the entire 2024 season barring a medical miracle. These are significant obstacles for the Marlins front office to work around, no doubt. García and Alcantara are the only Marlins players signed beyond 2024. Arbitration EligiblesThe Marlins entered the offseason with 13 arbitration-eligible players. Jacob Stallings, Garrett Hampson and Jonathan Davis have since been trimmed from that group. The 10 remaining arb-eligible players are projected for a combined $33.9M, per MLB Trade Rumors. Those salaries become fully guaranteed once settled, but we will have to wait until later in the offseason to get those specific figures. Contract BuyoutsBefore Bendix officially arrived, the Marlins made the easy call to decline the 2024 club options for Matt Barnes and Johnny Cueto. Their dismissals still came at a cost, though. Barnes received a $2.75M buyout and Cueto got $2.5M. That $5.25M total counts toward Miami's 2024 spending. Current 2024 Payroll ProjectionThe Marlins are facing a bill of approximately $80.575M for the players mentioned above—with Alcantara going on the injured list, that only fills up half (13) of the spots on the Opening Day 26-man active roster. Let's assume there are no spring training injuries and the other 13 spots are occupied by pre-arb players making an average of $750k each (slightly above the $740k league minimum). That takes this (very conservative) payroll projection to $90.325M. The Marlins began 2023 at $92.575M, according to Cot's Contracts, which was MLB's 23rd-highest payroll. To have comparable success on the field next season, they'll either need to blow past that mark or get much-improved production from the players on their existing roster. Photo by Kevin Barral/Fish On First

After scavenging for coins between the couch cushions of their already-thin farm system, the Miami Marlins traded infielder Erick Lara and right-hander Andrew Lindsey to the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday for utility man Vidal Bruján and righty reliever Calvin Faucher. The Marlins also owe Tampa Bay cash considerations or a player to be named later to complete the deal. It's remarkably the sixth time in the last three years that the Florida teams have hooked up on a trade. The structure in this instance is similar to their previous deal (headlined by Xavier Edwards), with the Fish focused on major league-ready players and willing to part with raw, "lottery ticket" prospects. None of the assets changing addresses are particularly valuable, but let's get into more of the specifics. Bruján had spent his entire professional career in the Rays organization. The Dominican switch-hitter emerged as a potentially special prospect in 2018. He was a consensus Top 100 talent entering the 2020 season and earned a 2021 Futures Game selection. His lifetime minor league slash line is .287/.370/.429 with a 126 wRC+ and 240 stolen bases, the fourth-highest total during that period. Unfortunately, he's been an utter failure at the major league level. Bruján has accrued -1.5 fWAR in only 272 MLB plate appearances, unable to even hit his own weight (.157 BA). The Rays got him reps at as many defensive positions as possible, but that still wasn't enough to merit a spot on a contending team. Turning 26 in February, Bruján has used up all of his minor league options. Peter Bendix acquired him with the intention of putting him on the Marlins Opening Day roster—the non-tendering of Garrett Hampson on Friday cleared the runway for him even more. He is currently playing in the Dominican Winter League for Estrellas Orientales where he's leading the league with 12 steals and slashing .316/.418/.405. The 28-year-old Faucher posted a 6.32 ERA, 4.98 FIP and 1.68 WHIP in 39 games (including four "opener"appearances) as a Ray. He possesses a mid-90s sinker, low-90s cutter and a sweeper and curveball that both get very high spin rates. He missed the final two-plus months of the season with biceps tendinitis. It's pronounced "Foh-SHAY." https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/2d259947-5fcc-42b9-ae5d-53440154c914.mp4Faucher still has one minor league option remaining. Both of the outgoing players recently launched their professional careers. The 17-year-old Lara slashed .305/.416/.445 (133 wRC+) in the Dominican Summer League this season. Lindsey, who just turned 24, was Miami's fifth-round pick in the latest MLB Draft. Neither of them were ranked in our end-of-season Fish On First Top 30, though Lara earned an honorable mention. With the arrivals of Bruján and Faucher and the departures of Hampson and Jacob Stallings (also non-tendered), the Marlins 40-man roster is still at 37. Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

Marlins Podcast Episodes Luis Arraez finished eighth in NL MVP voting, appearing on 22 of the 30 BBWAA ballots. It's the second straight year that a Marlins player has received NL MVP votes (Sandy Alcantara placed 10th in 2022) and the best finish for any Marlin since Giancarlo Stanton won the award himself in 2017.In an "unprecedented collaboration" between Minor League Baseball and the Mexican League, the Pensacola Blue Wahoos will host a two-game exhibition series against Sultanes de Monterrey next April. The exhibitions will take place right before the start of Pensacola's 2024 regular season schedule.Fish On First caught up with former Marlins pitcher Pablo López on Thursday at his pickleball event encouraging pet adoption. Elsewhere around baseball, MLB owners voted unanimously to allow the Athletics to move from Oakland to Las Vegas. They'll still play the 2024 season in Oakland, but it's unclear what will happen from 2025-2027 while they wait for the Vegas ballpark to be constructed. Commissioner Rob Manfred also announced that Atlanta will host the 2025 MLB All-Star Game (the Texas Rangers are hosting in 2024). The Braves made a six-player trade to acquire White Sox reliever Aaron Bummer. This season, Bummer had by far MLB's largest ERA-to-FIP disparity among qualified relievers, so they're clearly anticipating that will normalize moving forward.I stated previously that the Marlins erred in allowing Jorge Soler to hit free agency without issuing him a qualifying offer (which he almost certainly would have rejected). Bruce Sherman says that although Peter Bendix "had an opinion" on that situation, the call was made by assistant general managers Brian Chattin, Dan Greenlee and Oz Ocampo (h/t Christina De Nicola, MLB.com). Discouraging start to the offseason between that and Troy Johnston's 40-man roster snub.Speaking of Johnston, Hans Herrera has a new FanPost ranting about the Rule 5 protection deadline and where the Marlins roster currently stands.More transactions seem inevitable in advance of today's non-tender deadline. Marlins players Luis Arraez, Jesús Luzardo, Tanner Scott, Jacob Stallings, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jesús Sánchez, A.J. Puk, Trevor Rogers, Garrett Hampson, JT Chargois, Steven Okert and Anthony Bender are eligible for arbitration in 2024. The Marlins can cut them with no strings attached if they feel any of them aren't worth their projected arb raises.Fish On First has partnered with the Marlins Discord server! You can join the server for free to participate in around-the-clock Fish talk. There is also a private channel reserved for our valued Super Subscribers.The Red Black Green Baseball Blog featured Nasim Nuñez in their series on Black MiLB players. Jorge Soler (DH), Luis Arraez (2B), Jake Burger (3B) and Tanner Scott (RP) are on the 2023 All-MLB ballot. Vote for them through Sunday.Photo by Michael Zagaris/Oakland Athletics

Marlins Podcast Episodes Wednesday's winter ball notes: CF Dane Myers (LIDOM) went 1-for-2 with three walks and two stolen bases.Brant Brown is joining the Mariners coaching staff, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports. After serving as Marlins hitting coach in 2023, Brown will have a "larger role" with his new club, according to Craig Mish of SportsGrid. This is the first known departure from Skip Schumaker's staff and it means the Marlins will be searching for their fourth hitting coach in as many seasons. They had a poor offense under Brown's tutelage, but several players insisted that his extensive scouting reports of opposing pitchers and personalized game plans put them in a position to be the best version of themselves.Elsewhere around baseball, MLB's competition committee has proposed reducing the pitch clock with runners on base from 20 seconds to 18 seconds. ESPN's Jeff Passan observes that only 14% of all 2023 pitch-clock violations came with runners on base, so the league sees it as an opportunity to continue trimming the fat from games.The latest episode of focused on Brown, Schumaker and the Marlins' 40-man roster moves. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! https://fishonfirst.com/la-pop/Fish On First has partnered with the Marlins Discord server! You can join the server for free to participate in around-the-clock Fish talk. There is also a private channel reserved for our valued Super Subscribers.The lone BBWAA writer to include Eury Pérez on his National League Rookie of the Year ballot, Jordan Shusterman of FOXsports.com, explains why he has such a high ceiling.Today at Miami Shores Tennis Club, old friend Pablo López is hosting a free event benefiting a local animal shelter.The NL MVP voting results will be announced tonight. I'm curious to see how many ballots include Luis Arraez (voters select their top 10 players). It would be a surprise if any other Marlins received votes.Photo by Kevin Barral/Fish On First

During the 2023 Miami Marlins season, Fish On First stayed connected with our paid Super Subscribers on a daily basis using a "Twitter Circle" for private conversations and exclusive updates. Well, that Twitter feature was officially discontinued in October 2023. Although the transition is slightly inconvenient, I think this is ultimately for the best. The Marlins Discord server is much better suited for hosting this special community. All Marlins fans are welcome to join the server itself for free, which already has hundreds of people in it. Within the server, there is a dedicated channel (fof-super-subscribers)—you will be manually added to the channel once I confirm that you are an active Super Subscriber. Sign up for as little as $3 per month to support what we do and enjoy additional year-round perks! /fish-on-first-updates/super-subscriber-details/Photo courtesy of Miami Marlins

Marlins Podcast Episodes Tuesday's winter ball notes: Dane Myers went 0-for-1 as a pinch-hitter in a rare Gigantes del Cibao loss.Congrats to RHP Anthony Maldonado and OF Victor Mesa Jr. on being selected to the Marlins 40-man roster. However, their special moments were overshadowed by the perplexing decision not to select 1B Troy Johnston. The most productive hitter in the Marlins farm system since turning pro in 2019, Johnston is now eligible for the upcoming Rule 5 Draft.Skip Schumaker edged out Brian Snitker (Braves) and Craig Counsell (formerly of the Brewers) to win NL Manager of the Year. Well deserved for the steady leader who guided the Marlins to one of their best regular seasons in franchise history. Six different managers received first-place votes and six of the 30 BBWAA writers left Schumaker off of their ballots entirely. Here is his interview on MLB Tonight upon receiving the news.Listen to our latest Fish On First Twitter Space—hosted by Kevin Barral—reacting to Tuesday's events.Elsewhere around baseball, Padres chairman and owner Peter Siedler passed away at age 63. More so than most MLB owners, Siedler allowed the passion for his team override the temptation to maximize his profits, and that made him extremely popular among Padres fans. All seven players who were issued qualifying offers rejected them. Join us tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET for a new edition of Fish On First LIVE on /Twitter/Twitch. Special guest: Isaac Shapiro (aka "Sevento"). With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! https://fishonfirst.com/la-pop/Joining the Marlins Hot Stove Show for his first post-Tommy John surgery interview, Sandy Alcantara was in good spirits. He insisted that elbow discomfort played no role in his disappointing 2023 season—the injury didn't occur until his final start. Alcantara expressed optimism about coming back "stronger and better" in 2025. Max Meyer showed us a glimpse of his own Tommy John recovery. Remember to bookmark the Fish On First injury/rehab tracker for year-round updates on Marlins players.Kevin Barral writes about Nasim Nuñez, who just got done with an extra-long, "monotonous" 2023 season.Happy birthday to RHP Andrew Lindsey (24) and RHP Lester Nin (20). Both of them pitched for the FCL Marlins this past summer.Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

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Marlins Podcast Episodes Peter Bendix and Bruce Sherman addressed the media at LoanDepot Park on Monday while introducing Bendix as Miami's new president of baseball operations. To me, the most notable takeaway was that Kim Ng's former assistant general managers, Brian Chattin, Oz Ocampo and Dan Greenlee, were involved in the POBO search process. They each attended the press conference and all indications are that they'll be retained by Bendix (at least for this offseason). As embedded on top of this page, The Offishial Show is back on a weekly schedule! Every Tuesday throughout the year, listen to me, Fish On First staffers and special guests discuss all things Marlins. Subscribe to the Fish On First channel wherever you get your pods.Elsewhere around baseball, Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll were announced as the AL and NL Rookie of the Year, respectively. Eury Pérez earned one third-place vote on the NL side, courtesy of Jordan Shusterman of FOXSports.com. The Astros have promoted bench coach Joe Espada to be their new manager, taking over for the recently retired Dusty Baker. Espada spent the first eight seasons of his post-playing career (2006-13) with the Marlins organization. Craig Counsell's longtime bench coach, Pat Murphy, is expected to be named Counsell's successor in Milwaukee. That would leave the Padres as MLB's lone managerial vacancy. Tonight's BBWAA award announcement will be AL/NL Manager of the Year. Skip Schumaker is likely to win the NL hardware. Check out the coverage on MLB Network beginning at 6:00 p.m. ET.Also, 6:00 p.m. ET represents the deadline for MLB teams to file reserve lists for all major and minor league levels as a precursor to next month's Rule 5 Draft. Eligible prospects selected to their club's 40-man roster will be protected from all phases of the Rule 5, while those moved to the 38-man Triple-A reserve list will be safe from the draft's minor league phase. As outlined in my Marlins offseason blueprint, I recommend selecting Victor Mesa Jr., Troy Johnston, Nasim Nuñez and Anthony Maldonado to the 40-man.Christina De Nicola of MLB.com makes the case that Schumaker deserves the NL MOY award for pushing the right buttons. "He played matchups on the mound and at the plate to set his players up for success, and also had to monitor his young rotation's workload," she writes. De Nicola also details the progress Luis Arraez has made in rehabbing from an end-of-season ankle injury.Brian Dunleavy of Marlin Maniac recommends Eduardo Rodriguez, Hunter Renfroe, Victor Caratini and Paul DeJong as free agent targets for the Marlins. Jorge Soler (DH), Luis Arraez (2B), Jake Burger (3B) and Tanner Scott (RP) are on the 2023 All-MLB ballot. Vote for them through this Sunday.Photo courtesy of Miami Marlins