Ely Sussman

Watch all 26 pitches that A.J. Puk threw against the New York Mets on Tuesday. View full video

Luzardo becomes the 18th different pitcher to lead the Marlins into the regular season. On March 28 at approximately 4:10 p.m. ET, Jesús Luzardo will have the honors of throwing the first pitch of the 2024 Miami Marlins season, manager Skip Schumaker confirmed on Tuesday. "He is deserving of it and hopefully this is the first of many for him," Schumaker said. "He's turned himself into the ace of our staff, a guy that has become one of the leaders in that clubhouse and on the staff, and nobody deserves it more than him." Sandy Alcantara was Miami's Opening Day starter each of the previous four years, but he'll be sidelined this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October, so the Marlins knew that streak would be coming to an end. Alcantara isn't pouting about that—he actually delivered the news to Luzardo, Schumaker says. "I think it'll just be a group effort and being able to just start us off on the right foot, I think that's something awesome," Luzardo said modestly about the upcoming season. In 2023, Luzardo led all Marlins pitchers in starts (32), strikeouts (208) and both versions of wins above replacement (3.7 fWAR/4.1 bWAR). Luzardo made his 2024 Grapefruit League debut on Sunday. He retired all six Washington Nationals batters he faced (2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K). He projects to make four or five more tune-up starts between now and March 28 to fully stretch out. Most of those will likely come in public exhibition games, but he may also occasionally get his work in during simulated games on the Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium backfields when it better suits his throwing schedule. Toeing the rubber for the Marlins' Opening Day opponent will be Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller. As I wrote about recently, Luzardo and Keller have quite a lot in common. The main difference is that Keller has signed a contract extension to stay with the Bucs through 2028. Meanwhile, Luzardo's future with the Fish is murky as the front office reportedly assesses whether to capitalize on his immense trade value. As talented as the 26-year-old Luzardo may be, it's ambitious for Schumaker to float the possibility of him potentially making "many" Opening Day starts in the future. Would he really get to reprise this role in 2025 over a healthy Sandy and a rapidly developing Eury Pérez? Unlikely. Maybe he's the ace of a different team by then, though. I'm setting the over/under at 2.5 career Opening Day starts for Luzardo. Which side are you taking? View full article

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs... View full article

Now that the shortstop carousel has mostly come to a halt, let's recap what happened to the other veteran options that the Marlins were reportedly interested in. "We felt honestly pretty good about the shortstop options that we would had in-house, but it was still something that we were gonna try to look to upgrade." That was Miami Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix speaking to the media last weekend, attempting to downplay his club's dire situation at a crucial position. By any measure, the Marlins got poor production from their shortstops in 2023. None of their in-house candidates inspired much confidence moving forward (I do not believe Bendix's "honest" claim otherwise). Hence why there were persistent rumors throughout this offseason about them shopping for a shortstop. Bendix inherited a barren farm system with which to trade from, so Miami's focus was mainly on free agency. One problem: the 2023-24 FA shortstop class was one of the weakest ever. There were 21 qualified MLB hitters last season who primarily played shortstop, per FanGraphs, and only the bottom three as ranked by fWAR became free agents. Ultimately, the Marlins added Tim Anderson on a one-year, $5M deal. Anderson was more expensive than most of the alternatives below, but inarguably comes with the highest upside, not far removed from his 4.6 fWAR peak and still just 30 years old. Oft-injured Adalberto Mondesi—who was directly linked to the Marlins earlier in the offseason—remains available as of Tuesday morning, but all of the other experienced shortstops have now found their new homes: Isiah Kiner-Falefa—signed two-year, $15M deal with Toronto Blue Jays Amed Rosario—signed one-year, $1.5M deal with Tampa Bay Rays Paul DeJong—signed one-year, $1.75M deal with Chicago White Sox Joey Wendle—signed one-year, $2M deal with New York Mets Brandon Crawford—signed one-year, $2M deal with St. Louis Cardinals Nick Ahmed—signed minor league deal with San Francisco Giants I might as well mention Kiké Hernández (1/$4M deal with Los Angeles Dodgers) even though nobody views him as a regular shortstop. The desperate Boston Red Sox experimented with him in that role in early 2023 and quickly regretted it. Unless Anderson rebounds and is open to re-signing at a Fish-friendly price or Jacob Amaya takes a significant step forward, the Marlins will be back in this predicament again next winter. At least the 2024-25 FA class projects to have a couple sexier solutions in Willy Adames and Ha-Seong Kim (assuming Kim declines his 2025 mutual option). Also, there's hope that the Marlins could have more assets to use via trade by then if their pitching staff's health improves or new player development hires find quick success in helping hitting prospects maximize their potential. View full article

I'll consider creating that distinction next time.

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs... View full article

Homage reissued the iconic MLB Starter satin jacket in an exclusive limited-edition release on Monday morning. Hope you got one while you had the chance! 10:50 a.m. ET update: Wow! The Marlins jacket is temporarily out of stock in all sizes. The original version of this article is shown below. It was deflating to find out that the Miami Marlins have squeezed the teal throwbacks out of their 2024 uniform mix. Homage has come through with a much-needed pick-me-up by offering teal Florida Marlins satin jackets through a collaboration with Starter. This throwback has all the classic details of the original: full-snap buttons, slip pockets, and an interior patch that reads "LET'S GO FISH." The jacket is priced at $165 and available in sizes S-XXL. Get yours here while supplies last. Homage has jackets for the other 29 MLB teams as well. *Full disclosure: Fish On First will receive a commission for purchases made through the links above. View full article

Marlins news roundup for 2/26/24 Fish On First will have boots on the ground for today's Marlins spring training game. Follow Kevin Barral and Noah Berger for live updates from Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium and check out our staff's 2024 Spring Training Journal (new entries every day). 🔹 On Sunday, Jesús Luzardo looked sharp in two perfect innings. Troy Johnston went 3-for-3 off the bench. Calvin Faucher had a forgettable spring debut (0.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 0 K). The Nationals won, 6-3. 🔹 Anthony Bender contributed a scoreless inning, his first pitching appearance in any game environment since blowing out his elbow in 2022. Kevin Barral got his reaction in the clubhouse afterwards. 🔹 I looked at the similarities between Luzardo and Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller, who agreed to an extension last week. It'd probably take even more to extend Luzardo. 🔹 Sean McCormack analyzes the pitch mix of George Soriano and sees breakout potential in him, especially if he "figures out his fastball." You're invited to start your own conversation in our forums just like Sean did! 🔹 Elsewhere around baseball, Cody Bellinger (3/$80M) re-signed with the Cubs. He'll be teammates with Garrett Cooper, who's joining the Cubs on a minor league deal. Disappointing contracts for both of them considering what they must've been anticipating at the onset of free agency. 🔹 Today's game: Marlins (RHP Eury Pérez) vs. Cardinals (RHP Sem Robberse) at 1:10 p.m. No television coverage. 🔹 In an effort to flush his past two disappointing seasons, Avisaíl García spent his offseason hitting with Luis Arraez, reports Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. He has also tweaked his batting stance to take pressure off his back. 🔹 Long before they were teammates in the majors, Jake Burger reflects on how Tim Anderson's support helped him cope with his early-career injury setbacks, as detailed in Christina De Nicola's Marlins Beat newsletter. 🔹 Dusty Baker and Doug Glanville reflect on how Dontrelle Willis left his indelible mark on baseball during his Marlins glory days (via Jason Jones of The Athletic). View full article

How do you feel about the direction of the Miami Marlins franchise? Every month, I'll be polling our audience to find out how you’re reacting to transactions, news, rumors and game results. Since conducting the inaugural Fish On First fan confidence poll last month, the Marlins have done some stuff! There's been the Tim Anderson signing, swapping Steven Okert for Nick Gordon, and various minor league signings and moves along the fringes of the 40-man roster. Grapefruit League play has also begun. Taking these factors into consideration (and whatever else is important to you), let us know your current confidence level...

Holding onto Scott entering the year would seemingly be about showing the players and fans that they're making a good-faith effort to be competitive, because I agree that there's a strong case for moving him now. His value can't possibly go any higher during the season given his pending FA status and understandably, multi-year deals for premium relievers is not part of the plan.

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs... View full article

Luzardo has a lot in common with the newly extended Pirates right-hander, including a desire to remain with his current team long term...if the money is right. The Pittsburgh Pirates are one of the only MLB teams that's poised to spend even less on their 2024 payroll than the Miami Marlins. Even so, they gave their fanbase a reason to cheer earlier this week by finalizing a five-year, $77M deal with Mitch Keller. The All-Star right-hander joins Bryan Reynolds and Ke'Bryan Hayes as Bucs players who are under long-term contracts, and there are reinforcements coming soon from Pittsburgh's above-average farm system. The future is bright for a franchise that has suffered through some lean years. The Marlins have yet to make a comparable splash as the 2023-24 offseason winds down. They've made a series of efficient, incremental upgrades that gives them a path to return to the playoffs if their starting rotation is reasonably durable and several of their hitters rebound from lousy years. However, the only players with guaranteed deals beyond the 2024 campaign are Sandy Alcantara and Avisaíl García. Even manager Skip Schumaker, who is largely credited with revamping the "culture" in Miami for the better, isn't assured of sticking around past this season. Jesús Luzardo is the Marlins' closest equivalent to Keller. He could've been selected as an All-Star himself in 2023 had he not been on a contending team with other very deserving candidates. Since Peter Bendix arrived as president of baseball operations, there have been persistent rumors about the Fish discussing Luzardo in trade talks rather than attempting to extend him. That's despite the 26-year-old lefty publicly insisting he wants to stay put. Let's imagine that the Marlins made Luzardo the same offer that Keller accepted, adding four years and $71.6M of new money to his current contract. Would he take it? Similar career paths Keller and Luzardo were considered to be among the elite prep pitchers in their MLB Draft classes of 2014 and 2016, respectively. They each received seven-figure bonuses as teenagers to embark on their professional careers. While ascending the minor league ladder, both generated tremendous hype, ranking as consensus top-50 prospects prior to debuting in the big leagues. Keller's initial call-up came in May 2019, while Luzardo's came in September of that season. Development isn't always linear, though. In near-identical sample sizes from 2019-2021, Keller and Luzardo had bad results. Luzardo's stock had fallen enough that the Oakland Athletics were willing to trade him to the Marlins in exchange for free-agent-to-be Starling Marte. Both talented arms turned a corner in 2022, then established themselves as reliable starters in 2023. Through the All-Star break, they put up comparable numbers across the board that you'd associate with a typical No. 2 guy in a major league rotation. The second halves of their seasons were less consistent, but they stayed healthy, missed plenty of bats and overall performed in a way that seems sustainable moving forward. Reasons why Luzardo should take a $77M extension if offered: That's "set for life" type of money! As a resident of Florida (no state income tax), he would keep a higher percentage of it for himself than other athletes in the same contractual situation. He'd get to continue playing for the team he grew up rooting for and living close to his immediate family. The extension would take him through age 31, at which point he should be able to secure another lucrative deal in free agency. He has already undergone Tommy John surgery once and missed time due to other injuries, so this provides security in the unfortunate event of a career-altering setback that prevents him from reaching his full potential. Reasons why Luzardo should get even more: All things being equal, teams value left-handers more than right-handers because there's a smaller supply of them. In terms of run prevention and limiting baserunners, he has been slightly but inarguably better than Keller on a per-inning basis. He's currently on track to enter free agency as a 29-year-old, about six months younger than Keller would have been. Although the Marlins' club control over Luzardo runs through the 2026 season, it feels like the window is closing soon for them to extend him at a cheap enough rate to fit within Bruce Sherman's perpetually tight budget. How much do you think it would take to get a deal done? View full article

In the next projection update, I will differentiate between "locks" and players who are "on the bubble" because I agree that the RPs you mentioned could go either way. They wouldn't hesitate to send down Bender if there is clear rust, and Bendix has already been involved in trading away Chargois once before. He might do it again if he determines that there are 8 RPs in camp superior to him.

He has an opportunity to earn a spot! But the odds are against him making it as a starter right away because Cabrera has no minor league options and Rogers appears to be fully healthy and has the edge in MLB experience. They are clearly ahead of him on the depth chart. Meyer was a reliever occasionally during his college career, but hasn't done it at all since being drafted. I think they want him to fully focus on developing as a SP for the time being even if there is room in the 'pen.

Marlins news roundup for 2/23/24 Here's what you should know with 34 days to go until Marlins Opening Day... Fish On First will have boots on the ground for today's Marlins spring training workout. Follow Isaac Azout, Kevin Barral and Alex Carver for live updates from the Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium complex and check out our staff's 2024 Spring Training Journal (new entries every day). 🔹 Tim Anderson has indeed accepted the contract that the Marlins offered him last week, agreeing to a one-year, $5M deal. Looks like he's excited about it! We're just awaiting the corresponding roster move to make it official. 🔹 Our staff did an emergency Twitter space reacting to the Anderson news. We're largely in favor of the signing considering the low financial risk and lack of shortstop alternatives. 🔹 The Marlins also signed a pair of 28-year-old right-handers to minor league deals: Vladimir Gutierrez and Lincoln Henzman. Gutierrez received an invite to big league camp and has prior MLB experience with the Reds. Henzman is coming off a chaotic calendar year that began in the White Sox organization, then brought him to the independent Atlantic League, followed by an extraordinary stint in the Puerto Rican Winter League, a pitstop in the Dominican Republic during the LIDOM playoffs and a selection to Puerto Rico's Caribbean Series team. 🔹 Jesús Luzardo is scheduled to start Sunday's game for the Marlins against Nationals, Skip Schumaker announced. 🔹 Elsewhere around baseball, Mitch Keller signed a five-year, $77M extension with the Pirates, which sets a new franchise record for the largest contract they've ever given to a pitcher. Gio Urshela (1/$1.5M) signed with the Tigers (reportedly, the Marlins were in on Urshela as well). Mets ace Kodai Senga will begin this season on the injured list due to a shoulder capsule strain. One year removed from retiring as a player, old friend Justin Bour has been hired by the Brewers as an assistant in their player development department. 🔹 I have updated my Opening Day roster projection, with Anderson squeezing Xavier Edwards to Triple-A, among other modifications. 🔹 Christina De Nicola of MLB.com details what Skip Schumaker has done to instill a winning culture around the Marlins. 🔹 It felt like, “As Tim Anderson goes, so go the White Sox,” explains Jim Margalus of Sox Machine. 🔹 Our partners at Homage teased that Starter throwback jackets for every MLB team are going on sale on Monday. Fish On First will be picking one lucky SuperSub to win a Marlins jacket. Become a SuperSub today to support our coverage and be included in frequent giveaways like this. 🔹 He won't be playing for the Marlins in 2024, but this is Sandy Alcantara's seventh season in the Marlins organization. I made a montage that includes his Photo Day portraits from each year dating back to 2018. Marlins Podcast Episodes View full article