Would Jesús Luzardo accept the Mitch Keller contract extension?

The Pittsburgh Pirates are one of the only MLB teams that's poised to spend even less on their 2024 payroll than the Miami Marlins. Even so, they gave their fanbase a reason to cheer earlier this week by finalizing a five-year, $77M deal with Mitch Keller. The All-Star right-hander joins Bryan Reynolds and Ke'Bryan Hayes as Bucs players who are under long-term contracts, and there are reinforcements coming soon from Pittsburgh's above-average farm system. The future is bright for a franchise that has suffered through some lean years.

The Marlins have yet to make a comparable splash as the 2023-24 offseason winds down. They've made a series of efficient, incremental upgrades that gives them a path to return to the playoffs if their starting rotation is reasonably durable and several of their hitters rebound from lousy years. However, the only players with guaranteed deals beyond the 2024 campaign are Sandy Alcantara and Avisaíl García. Even manager Skip Schumaker, who is largely credited with revamping the "culture" in Miami for the better, isn't assured of sticking around past this season. 

Jesús Luzardo is the Marlins' closest equivalent to Keller. He could've been selected as an All-Star himself in 2023 had he not been on a contending team with other very deserving candidates. Since Peter Bendix arrived as president of baseball operations, there have been persistent rumors about the Fish discussing Luzardo in trade talks rather than attempting to extend him. That's despite the 26-year-old lefty publicly insisting he wants to stay put.

Let's imagine that the Marlins made Luzardo the same offer that Keller accepted, adding four years and $71.6M of new money to his current contract. Would he take it?

Similar career paths

Keller and Luzardo were considered to be among the elite prep pitchers in their MLB Draft classes of 2014 and 2016, respectively. They each received seven-figure bonuses as teenagers to embark on their professional careers.

While ascending the minor league ladder, both generated tremendous hype, ranking as consensus top-50 prospects prior to debuting in the big leagues. Keller's initial call-up came in May 2019, while Luzardo's came in September of that season.

Development isn't always linear, though. In near-identical sample sizes from 2019-2021, Keller and Luzardo had bad results. Luzardo's stock had fallen enough that the Oakland Athletics were willing to trade him to the Marlins in exchange for free-agent-to-be Starling Marte.

Both talented arms turned a corner in 2022, then established themselves as reliable starters in 2023. Through the All-Star break, they put up comparable numbers across the board that you'd associate with a typical No. 2 guy in a major league rotation.

The second halves of their seasons were less consistent, but they stayed healthy, missed plenty of bats and overall performed in a way that seems sustainable moving forward.

Reasons why Luzardo should take a $77M extension if offered:

• That's "set for life" type of money!
• As a resident of Florida (no state income tax), he would keep a higher percentage of it for himself than other athletes in the same contractual situation.
• He'd get to continue playing for the team he grew up rooting for and living close to his immediate family.
• The extension would take him through age 31, at which point he should be able to secure another lucrative deal in free agency.
• He has already undergone Tommy John surgery once and missed time due to other injuries, so this provides security in the unfortunate event of a career-altering setback that prevents him from reaching his full potential.

Reasons why Luzardo should get even more:

• All things being equal, teams value left-handers more than right-handers because there's a smaller supply of them.
• In terms of run prevention and limiting baserunners, he has been slightly but inarguably better than Keller on a per-inning basis.
• He's currently on track to enter free agency as a 29-year-old, about six months younger than Keller would have been.

Although the Marlins' club control over Luzardo runs through the 2026 season, it feels like the window is closing soon for them to extend him at a cheap enough rate to fit within Bruce Sherman's perpetually tight budget. How much do you think it would take to get a deal done?