Ely Sussman

This is what I recorded for that series

SuperSubs, comment below with your Prediction Time picks: 1. How many games will the Marlins win in this series? (three-game series) 2. Who will be the Series MVP? (determined by win probability added) Once again in 2026, I will be monitoring Miami Marlins predictions from our valued SuperSubs, Fish On First staffers and livestream guests. Individual article pages like this one will be created prior to every Marlins series and featured prominently on the FOF site. Consistent participation is key if you want to win this annual contest. Submissions only take a few seconds. Scoring system A "perfect" series is worth three points: Earn one point for predicting which team will win the upcoming series Earn one point for predicting the precise number of victories for each team Earn one point for predicting the “Series MVP” who accumulated the highest win probability added (WPA) during the series as calculated by FanGraphs (could pick a player from either team) FOF SuperSub Nicholas Milton currently sits atop the 2026 season leaderboard, which will be updated between every Marlins series. If you are a SuperSub, leave a comment with your Prediction Time picks on this page, or join the Marlins Discord Server and submit there. We'll feature them on the upcoming Fish On First LIVE episode and track your points throughout the season! Any picks submitted prior to the first pitch of the series opener will be counted. If you are not a SuperSub, please consider signing up here to support the FOF staff. Series preview notes Probable starting pitchers: RHP Janson Junk (MIA) vs. RHP Jesse Scholtens (TB) on Friday RHP Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs. RHP Nick Martinez (TB) on Saturday RHP Eury Pérez (MIA) vs. RHP Drew Rasmussen (TB) on Sunday The Marlins rank 17th in MLB with a 98 wRC+ and 11th in MLB with a 3.87 FIP. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games and have a 6-12 record on the road this season. The following Marlins players are on the injured list: Griffin Conine (10-day IL), Pete Fairbanks (15-day IL), Ronny Henriquez (60-day IL) and Adam Mazur (60-day IL). Fairbanks is expected to be reinstated during this series. The Rays rank 14th in MLB with a 99 wRC+ and 15th in MLB with a 4.02 FIP. They are 8-2 in their last 10 games and have a 14-4 record at home this season. The following Rays players are on the injured list: Joe Boyle (15-day IL), Michael Grove (60-day IL), Gavin Lux (10-day IL), Steven Matz (15-day IL), Ryan Pepiot (60-day IL), Manuel Rodriguez (60-day IL), Edwin Uceta (60-day IL) and Steven Wilson (60-day IL). View full article

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the third and final game of Miami's road series against the Minnesota Twins. Braxton Garrett will be pitching in the big leagues for the first time in nearly two full years. Pregame roster moves: Braxton Garrett recalled from Triple-A Jacksonville; Josh Ekness optioned to Jacksonville Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) C Liam Hicks (L) SS Otto Lopez LF Kyle Stowers (L) 1B Christopher Morel CF Jakob Marsee (L) DH Leo Jiménez RF Owen Caissie (L) 3B Javier Sanoja P Braxton Garrett Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

That's because Stowers won MVP and you picked X for that one!

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the first game of Miami's road series against the Minnesota Twins. Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) 1B Liam Hicks (L) SS Otto Lopez RF Kyle Stowers (L) 3B Connor Norby CF Jakob Marsee (L) DH Christopher Morel C Joe Mack (L) LF Heriberto Hernández P Eury Pérez Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

This podcast is brought to you by Jet Ski Rentals of South Florida—offering Miami’s best jet ski and boat adventures. With six jet ski locations and over 120 boats, there’s something for every style and every budget. They’re reservation-based only. To inquire, call 305-990-2192, or check them out online at SFJetskiRentals.com. Make sure to use promo code FISHONFIRST to receive 10% off your next booking. Fish On First staffers react to the latest Miami Marlins series and prepare you for what lies ahead. Thursday's show was hosted by Ely Sussman and featured panelists Jeremiah Geiger and Sean Millerick. The following topics were covered: Robby Snelling (UCL sprain) lands on injured list Braxton Garrett knocked out in the second inning Marlins lineup limited outside of Xavier Edwards, Liam Hicks and Otto Lopez Kemp Alderman breathing down Christopher Morel's neck Why are Marlins using Pete Fairbanks so rarely? Previewing and predicting the next series against the Tampa Bay Rays You can find Fish Unfiltered and Fish On First LIVE on the Fish On First YouTube channel, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever else you get your pods. Our next FOF LIVE episode will be Sunday at approximately 6:30 p.m. ET following the Marlins-Rays series finale. View full article

Christopher Morel just had his best moment as a Miami Marlin. Frankly, there aren't any other nominees. Sunday afternoon against the Washington Nationals, with one out in the bottom of the eighth inning and the game tied 2-2, Morel stepped up to the plate. His task: drive the ball deep enough to score Esteury Ruiz from third base. Morel delivered, getting just enough of Gus Varland's 0-2 slider to bloop a single into center field. His first RBI of the 2026 season was a game-winner. The 26-year-old free agent acquisition has been limited to nine games thus far due to an oblique strain that he suffered on Opening Day. It's unreasonable to hold that against him—oblique injuries have become increasingly prevalent in baseball, impacting even the best-conditioned athletes. That being said, Morel has blatantly failed the eye test both before and after his absence, with discouraging results to boot. In the meantime, other internal options have emerged as better candidates to fill the role that was originally envisioned for him. How much more of this are the Marlins willing to tolerate? There are several different tiers of major league free agent signings. Morel is an example from the lowest tier—talented enough to receive guaranteed money, but so unproductive that the team had all the leverage. On the heels of back-to-back sub-replacement-level seasons, the burden of proof has been on him from the beginning to demonstrate that things would be different this time. The only consistent aspect of Morel's game through the years has been lightning-quick bat speed. That remains intact. Since comprehensive tracking began in 2023, his career average has been approximately 76 mph; in 2026, he's averaging 75.7 mph (second-highest among Marlins players). However, Morel is not generating any in-game power whatsoever. During spring training, he registered one measly extra-base hit in 46 plate appearances. In 47 additional opportunities across minor league rehab and MLB regular season action, he hasn't increased that total. Combining all of those reps, he is slugging .195 in 2026. If Morel is not bringing the threat of homering to the table, he doesn't belong at the table. He has always and will always strike out in abundance, perennially ranking below the 10th percentile in whiff rate. And he is the epitome of the word "positionless." The Marlins have prepared him primarily at first base since signing him because he has proven to be a liability at every other infield and outfield spot during his career. By all accounts, that transition has gone poorly. Half of his starts since being reinstated from the IL have come as Miami's designated hitter. Morel was supposed to have an outsized importance to the Marlins at the beginning of the season while some of their top hitting prospects incubated at Triple-A Jacksonville. But now, Joe Mack has joined the big league club. The Marlins have (appropriately) thrown him in the deep end, starting him behind the plate in six of his first seven games on the active roster. That has freed up their leading run producer, Liam Hicks, to primarily play first base. Connor Norby, who entered this year in a similar situation as Morel, has looked far more adept at his new position while tightening up his plate discipline. There is no case for either of them to sacrifice playing time in favor of Morel. Plus, reinforcements are on the way. Griffin Conine (hamstring tear) is on track to return by month's end. He can fake it at first base at least as well as Morel, and there's no comparison between them as outfield defenders or hitters (.262/.325/.454 slash line for Conine since 2024 vs. .203/.287/.357 for Morel during that span). Most specifically, Kemp Alderman makes Morel expendable. The organization's reigning Minor League Player of the Year generates the exit velocities of an "elite power merchant," as Eli Ben-Porat of Baseball America explains. Alderman was striking out constantly early this season, but the 23-year-old has reduced his K rate to a manageable 22.5% in May. And yes, he is learning 1B as well, starting there three times in his last eight games. Last week, the Marlins cut bait with right-hander Chris Paddack as soon as it became apparent that they had young players who were more deserving of his role. Their $4 million investment in Paddack did nothing to further their pursuit of a postseason berth, but admitting that error is preferable to subscribing to the sunk cost fallacy and sustaining more damage out of stubbornness. Morel is not at the end of his leash quite yet. Conine has several more boxes to check in his rehab process and Alderman needs to put together a larger body of work showing he can make contact against premium stuff. It's crucial that Morel rediscovers some of his pop in the meantime. View full article

Once again in 2026, I will be monitoring Miami Marlins predictions from our valued SuperSubs, Fish On First staffers and livestream guests. Individual article pages like this one will be created prior to every Marlins series and featured prominently on the FOF site. Consistent participation is key if you want to win this annual contest. Submissions only take a few seconds. Scoring system A "perfect" series is worth three points: Earn one point for predicting which team will win the upcoming series Earn one point for predicting the precise number of victories for each team Earn one point for predicting the “Series MVP” who accumulated the highest win probability added (WPA) during the series as calculated by FanGraphs (could pick a player from either team) FOF staffer Sean McCormack currently sits atop the 2026 season leaderboard, which will be updated between every Marlins series. If you are a SuperSub, leave a comment with your Prediction Time picks on this page, or join the Marlins Discord Server and submit there. We'll feature them on the upcoming Fish On First LIVE episode and track your points throughout the season! Any picks submitted prior to the first pitch of the series opener will be counted. If you are not a SuperSub, please consider signing up here to support the FOF staff. Series preview notes Probable starting pitchers: RHP Eury Pérez (MIA) vs. RHP Bailey Ober (MIN) on Tuesday RHP Max Meyer (MIA) vs. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) on Wednesday LHP Robby Snelling (MIA) vs. TBD (MIN) on Thursday The Marlins rank 13th in MLB with a 100 wRC+ and 10th in MLB with a 3.82 FIP. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games and have a 5-10 record on the road this season. The following Marlins players are on the injured list: Griffin Conine (10-day IL), Pete Fairbanks (15-day IL), Ronny Henriquez (60-day IL) and Adam Mazur (60-day IL). Fairbanks is expected to be reinstated during this series. The Twins rank 15th in MLB with a 100 wRC+ and 20th in MLB with a 4.31 FIP. They are 5-5 in their last 10 games and have a 10-10 record at home this season. The following Twins players are on the injured list: Mick Abel (15-day IL), Garrett Acton (15-day IL), Taj Bradley (15-day IL), David Festa (60-day IL), Cody Laweryson (15-day IL), Pablo López (60-day IL) and Cole Sands (15-day IL). View full article

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the third and final game of Miami's home series against the Washington Nationals. Heriberto Hernández started in place of Owen Caissie, who was scratched with left triceps tightness. Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) 1B Liam Hicks (L) SS Otto Lopez RF Kyle Stowers (L) CF Jakob Marsee (L) DH Christopher Morel LF Heriberto Hernández 3B Javier Sanoja C Joe Mack (L) P Sandy Alcantara Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

As of Sunday morning, we are approximately 25% of the way through this Miami Marlins season. Relative to expectations, the results have been underwhelming. They are on pace for a 73-89 record, which would be worse than anybody on the Fish On First staff predicted. If you're like me, you can find entertainment value in both victory and defeat when encountering extreme stats. Gotta give the Marlins some credit for overdelivering in that department. Here are five single-season franchise records that are currently on pace to be rewritten, ordered from least sustainable to actually plausible. Highest ERA in a single inning (team) Marlins record: 6.67 ERA in the seventh (1999) 2026 Marlins pace: 7.65 ERA in the first If it feels like these Marlins constantly find themselves playing from behind, it's because they are. Through 40 games, they have allowed 36 first-inning runs (34 of them earned). Every member of the club's starting rotation has contributed to the problem, even newcomer Robby Snelling, who immediately fell behind 3-0 in his major league debut. But overall, the Marlins have a solid pitching staff with an ERA no higher than 4.50 in any other inning. Let's chock up this extreme split to early-season randomness. Most hits in a single season (player) Marlins record: 221 (Juan Pierre, 2004) 2026 Otto Lopez pace: 222 Nobody has come particularly close to challenging Pierre's record over the last two-plus decades. The speedy center fielder played every inning of every game in 2004, starting in the leadoff spot the vast majority of the time—that allowed him to accrue 748 plate appearances, which is another franchise record. Otto Lopez is on pace to edge past JP by the slimmest of margins. Historically, Lopez has been inexplicably lousy against left-handed pitching, but that has completely flipped this season with a 21-for-47 start (.447 BA). The immense workload required to keep this up makes Lopez a longshot. He's also being buoyed by a record-worthy .411 batting average on balls in play. Even with great hustle out of the batter's box and frequent hard-hit contact, that mark is unsustainable. Regardless, Lopez is establishing himself as the most well-rounded shortstop that the Marlins have ever had. Lowest caught stealing rate (team) Marlins record: 11.2% (2025) MLB record: 9.6% (San Diego Padres, 2007) 2026 Marlins pace: 8.3% Controlling the running game has been a serious ongoing issue for the Fish dating back to early last season. Opponents are unafraid to challenge the arms of Liam Hicks and Agustín Ramírez, and they're able to get huge jumps against a heavily right-handed pitching staff that's generally slow to the plate. Recent prospect promotions should go a long way toward addressing this vulnerability. Joe Mack will deter thieves with his arm strength and accuracy. Robby Snelling adds a lefty to the rotation with a great minor league track record of limiting steals. Mack has started at catcher in six of his first seven games on the active roster. If he comes close to maintaining that workload moving forward, both the league and team CS% records should be out of reach. Most stolen bases (team) Marlins record: 177 (2003) 2026 Marlins pace: 178 Although not with the same efficiency, the Marlins have run the bases just as aggressively as their opponents have. This trend has more staying power. The addition of speed demon Esteury Ruiz is working exactly as intended—through only 12 games, he already ranks second on the Fish with six steals. Once Jakob Marsee (10 SB) reaches base with the regularity he's capable of, that will create more opportunities to pad the team's total. At the very least, the Marlins will probably eclipse last season's mark of 138 steals. Highest strikeout rate in a qualified season (player) Marlins record: 28.7% (Preston Wilson, 1999) 2026 Connor Norby pace: 31.4% Brian Anderson struck out 28.8% of the time in 2020, but I'm not counting that because the season was limited to 60 games due to COVID. This was supposed to be an opportunity to lament the struggles of Owen Caissie, who is striking out over forty percent of the time. However, the rookie's propensity to whiff has appropriately limited his playing time. It's difficult to envision him sticking in the big leagues for the entire season, and even if he does, reaching the 502 plate appearances needed to qualify is unlikely. I was not expecting to find Connor Norby here considering that his 2026 campaign has been an overall improvement from the year before. Quietly, though, his K rate has been Caissie-like over the last 30 days. In two-strike counts, changeups and splitters are especially problematic for him. Norby's newfound patience at the plate and solid transition to first base should keep him in the lineup frequently despite being strikeout-prone. View full article

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the second game of Miami's home series against the Washington Nationals. Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) SS Otto Lopez DH Liam Hicks (L) LF Kyle Stowers (L) 1B Connor Norby CF Jakob Marsee (L) RF Owen Caissie (L) 3B Leo Jiménez C Joe Mack (L) P Janson Junk Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the first game of Miami's home series against the Washington Nationals. Pregame roster moves: Robby Snelling selected from Triple-A Jacksonville; Stephen Jones designated for assignment Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) SS Otto Lopez RF Kyle Stowers (L) 1B Christopher Morel DH Connor Norby LF Javier Sanoja C Joe Mack (L) 3B Leo Jiménez CF Esteury Ruiz P Robby Snelling Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the third and final game of Miami's home series against the Baltimore Orioles. Pregame roster moves: Heriberto Hernández recalled and Stephen Jones selected from Triple-A Jacksonville; Dax Fulton and Graham Pauley optioned to Jacksonville Starting Lineup SS Otto Lopez 1B Connor Norby C Liam Hicks (L) DH Christopher Morel LF Heriberto Hernández RF Esteury Ruiz CF Jakob Marsee (L) 2B Leo Jiménez 3B Javier Sanoja P Max Meyer Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

Once again in 2026, I will be monitoring Miami Marlins predictions from our valued SuperSubs, Fish On First staffers and livestream guests. Individual article pages like this one will be created prior to every Marlins series and featured prominently on the FOF site. Consistent participation is key if you want to win this annual contest. Submissions only take a few seconds. Scoring system A "perfect" series is worth three points: Earn one point for predicting which team will win the upcoming series Earn one point for predicting the precise number of victories for each team Earn one point for predicting the “Series MVP” who accumulated the highest win probability added (WPA) during the series as calculated by FanGraphs (could pick a player from either team) FOF staffer Sean McCormack currently sits atop the 2026 season leaderboard, which will be updated between every Marlins series. If you are a SuperSub, leave a comment with your Prediction Time picks on this page, or join the Marlins Discord Server and submit there. We'll feature them on the upcoming Fish On First LIVE episode and track your points throughout the season! Any picks submitted prior to the first pitch of the series opener will be counted. If you are not a SuperSub, please consider signing up here to support the FOF staff. Series preview notes Probable starting pitchers: LHP Robby Snelling (MIA) vs. LHP Foster Griffin (WSH) on Friday RHP Janson Junk (MIA) vs. RHP Zack Littell (WSH) on Saturday RHP Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs. RHP Cade Cavalli (WSH) on Sunday The Marlins rank 16th in MLB with a 98 wRC+ and 11th in MLB with a 3.87 FIP. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games and have a 12-11 record at home this season. The following Marlins players are on the injured list: Griffin Conine (10-day IL), Pete Fairbanks (15-day IL), Ronny Henriquez (60-day IL) and Adam Mazur (60-day IL). The Nationals rank 11th in MLB with a 100 wRC+ and 29th in MLB with a 5.08 FIP. They are 6-4 in their last 10 games and have a 12-7 record on the road this season. The following Nationals players are on the injured list: Clayton Beeter (15-day IL), Josiah Gray (60-day IL), Cole Henry (15-day IL), DJ Herz (60-day IL), Max Kranick (15-day IL), Ken Waldichuk (60-day IL) and Trevor Williams (60-day IL). View full article

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the second game of Miami's home series against the Baltimore Orioles. Pregame roster moves: Dax Fulton recalled from Triple-A Jacksonville; William Kempner optioned to Jacksonville Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) 1B Liam Hicks (L) 3B Connor Norby LF Kyle Stowers (L) CF Jakob Marsee (L) DH Christopher Morel RF Owen Caissie (L) C Joe Mack (L) SS Javier Sanoja P Eury Pérez Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the first game of Miami's home series against the Baltimore Orioles. Pregame roster moves: William Kempner recalled from Triple-A Jacksonville; Chris Paddack designated for assignment Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) 1B Liam Hicks (L) SS Otto Lopez LF Kyle Stowers (L) CF Jakob Marsee (L) DH Connor Norby C Joe Mack (L) RF Owen Caissie (L) 3B Graham Pauley (L) P Sandy Alcantara Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

Less than three months after signing Chris Paddack in free agency, the Miami Marlins designated him for assignment on Tuesday, as first reported by The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal. The veteran right-hander has been the glaring weak link in an otherwise effective Marlins starting rotation. In 30 ⅔ innings pitched this season, Paddack has a 7.63 ERA and 5.00 FIP. This past Sunday against the Philadelphia Phillies was rock bottom (2.2 IP, 6 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 1 K). In addition to being completely ineffective, his four-seam fastball velocity plummeted to 91.3 mph, the lowest average velo he's ever had in a game across part of eight MLB seasons. The Marlins on Monday evaluated Paddack for a potential injury, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, but ultimately did not find anything to justify an IL stint. Instead of moving forward with an untrustworthy arm, they are turning the page. Unless another pitcher-needy team values the 30-year-old enough to claim him off waivers and take responsibility for what remains of his $4 million salary, the Fish are on the hook for it. The Marlins won on April 5 when Paddack served as the bulk guy out of their bullpen against the New York Yankees, but they lost all six of his traditional starts. To fill Paddack's active roster spot for Tuesday's game, the Marlins will recall right-handed reliever William Kempner from Triple-A Jacksonville, according to MLB.com's Christina De Nicola. Kempner owns a bonkers 47.9% strikeout rate this season, but he's struggling with his control, hence a 6.46 ERA in 15 ⅓ innings pitched. Kempner is a placeholder until the Marlins bring up a new starter in the coming days to fill Paddack's rotation spot. That job will go to either Braxton Garrett or Robby Snelling. The latter is not yet on Miami's 40-man roster, but the DFA has created an opening for him to be selected. View full article

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the fourth and final game of Miami's home series against the Philadelphia Phillies. Pregame roster moves: Joe Mack selected from Triple-A Jacksonville; Agustín Ramírez optioned to Jacksonville Starting Lineup CF Jakob Marsee (L) LF Kyle Stowers (L) SS Otto Lopez 2B Xavier Edwards (S) DH Liam Hicks (L) 1B Christopher Morel C Joe Mack (L) RF Owen Caissie (L) 3B Graham Pauley (L) P Janson Junk Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)