Would the Marlins really move on from Otto Lopez?

[Kevin Barral]

With only a few exceptions, sources tell Fish On First that the Miami Marlins continuing to listen to offers on all of their players entering the final weekend before the MLB trade deadline. That incudes All-Star shortstop Otto Lopez.

In 106 games played, Lopez is slashing .325/.359/.486/.845 with nine home runs, 50 RBI, 22 stolen bases and a 129 wRC+. He currently leads the majors in hits (138) and is tied for first in doubles (27). Defensively, Lopez has plus-five outs above average and plus-six defense runs saved, placing him in the running to be a National League Gold Glove finalist. Only Bobby Witt Jr. has a higher fWAR than Lopez (4.5) among shortstops.

Lopez has been everything that the Marlins could've asked for at a premium position and he doesn't become a free agent until 2030, so why would they even entertain the possibility of trading him now?

For starters, Lopez will enter his first year of arbitration eligibility this upcoming offseason. A huge pay raise is coming as a result of his production and accolades. In the meantime, the Marlins may want to maximize his value at a moment when he is affordable for every team in the league.

Moving on from Lopez would open a major hole at shortstop. In the short term, the Marlins could have Javier Sanoja take the majority of the reps there. The other 40-man roster options behind Sanoja are underwhelming (Leo Jiménez and Maximo Acosta). However, the Marlins have promising infield prospects who will be knocking on the door in 2027.

First-round draft pick Aiva Arquette has made a compelling case that he's capable of remaining at shortstop. He's currently on the injured list and still needs more Double-A experience. Another name to keep an eye out for is 22-year-old Cristian Hernández, one of the three players acquired from the Chicago Cubs in the Edward Cabrera trade. After a slow start to his Marlins tenure, he is now slashing .256/.336/.409/.745 with nine home runs, 32 RBI, 22 stolen bases and a 100 wRC+. High-A Beloit's Starlyn Caba is the best defender of them all, but his eventual call-up is more likely to come in 2028.

As a reminder, Lopez landed in Miami as a waiver claim two years ago. This front office's track record of turning under-the-radar acquisitions into impact players gives them the confidence that they can do it again.

Again, it should be noted that the Marlins are not looking to trade Lopez, but they need to be open-minded. Maybe a desperate suitor offers so much talent for him that they have to pull the trigger.

ESPN's Buster Olney reports that the Boston Red Sox are actively searching for a shortstop and Lopez's name has "come up in conversations."

Boston is 21st in shortstop wRC+ this season (85). Adding Lopez would not only bolster their lineup, but improve their team defensively. On top of that, the Red Sox have the prospect capital to make a trade, even if their top overall prospect, Franklin Arias, is off limits.

 

Mock trade proposal

Marlins receive: RHP Anthony Eyanson (BOS No. 2 prospect, per Baseball America) and OF Justin Gonzales (BOS No. 4 prospect)

Red Sox receive: SS Otto Lopez 

Eyanson is a right-handed pitcher who is currently in Double-A with a 1.45 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 10.38 K/9 and 4/36 BB/9. He started the season in High-A, where in five starts, he had a 0.44 ERA. Eyanson throws a fastball, curveball, slider and changeup. His two best pitches are the fastball and slider with the curveball beginning to improve. 

This is a pitcher who could advance quickly through the Marlins system and potentially contribute to the major league rotation in 2027.

As for Gonzales, he is currently in High-A, where in 77 games, he is slashing .266/.386/.457/.843 with 15 home runs, 45 RBI and a 117 wRC+. The power and arm stand out about the 6'5" teenager. Another calling card with Gonzales is his approach, striking out 18.7% of the time at the High-A level and walking 13.5% of the time.

The combination of Eyanson and Gonzales would make this the largest prospect haul that the Marlins have received in any trade since the beginning of the Peter Bendix era.

View full article

[One Regend]

You have a premium shortstop who is a terrific hitter, has just enough game power to flip the script, can run the bases well AND steal them, getting into scoring position often, AND is a gold glove candidate. That is a 5-tool player whose potential is fully realized, and you might even say, he hasn't even reached maximum potential. There's the thought that, one year, he might randomly pop off for 30 HRs. You don't trade a guy like that. You make a 7+ year long-term commitment to him.

Not a single Top 5 OVERALL prospect in the entire game is worth this trade for a guy this talented and has this many years of control left. You can't guarantee that the top-5 overall prospects you traded for will put up equal value to Otto Lopez, or surpass him. I'm not even going to go over the No. 2 and No. 4 prospects in Boston's system, who are not Top 5 overall prospects.

The Marlins made a colossal mistake. Instead of ignoring phone calls about Otto Lopez and shutting any talks about him down, they're listening to phone calls phoning in on Otto Lopez. What that does is they basically guaranteed he will shut down any multi-year contract offer the Marlins throw at him, even if they massively overpay. He WILL test the open market now. Thanks, Peter Bendix and Bruce Sherman. You shot yourself in the foot.