Marlins All-Star break roundtable: Fish On First staff analysis of 2026 success, trade deadline needs

[Ely Sussman]

Last weekend's sweep notwithstanding, the Miami Marlins are feeling good about themselves here in mid-July. By some measures, this is the best Marlins team we've seen since 2023; by most measures, it's the best in more than a decade.

How have they racked up so many wins already, and what needs to happen for them to stay on track for a postseason berth? During the final week of pre-All-Star break action, Fish On First staffers were invited to answer five of my burning questions about the state of the franchise.

Thanks to Louis Addeo-Weiss, Kevin Barral, Sean McCormack, Sean Millerick, Daniel Rodriguez and Hector Rodriguez for their participation in the following roundtable.

 

1. How do the 2026 Marlins compare to what you expected entering the season?

Ely Sussman: My foremost concern entering the season was that Marlins first basemen would be a huge liability. It was trending in that direction early on, but booting Christopher Morel and Connor Norby from the position in favor of Kyle Stowers and Liam Hicks has made a world of difference. I never could've expected Otto Lopez to emerge as one of the sport's very best players or Max Meyer to find such consistency as a starter. On the negative side, it's hard to believe the Marlins have endured with Jakob Marsee collapsing to replacement-level production and Pete Fairbanks being even worse than that. Overall, they're slightly better than an average team when I envisioned slightly below average.

Kevin Barral: The expectation was that they would be around where they were in 2025, with some potential regression. Clearly they surpassed everyone's expectations thanks to their month of June and nice start in July, sitting seven games over .500 at the break.

Louis Addeo-Weiss: I had my reservations, but given how well they’re playing despite certain key pieces like Marsee and Fairbanks being overall liabilities, should those two get it going, they could genuinely win the NL East.

Hector Rodriguez: They have been much better as they have one of the best records in MLB.

Sean McCormack: The lineup has far surpassed expectations, although the metrics on the pitching staff have been strong. I believe the offseason trade of Ryan Weathers and poor signing of Chris Paddack will hurt as the season goes on due to lack of MLB starting depth.

Daniel Rodriguez: My expectations for the Marlins coming into the 2026 season were fairly high based on their final record last season. I think they’ve done far better than what I actually expected them to do, especially in the offensive category, at the catching position and the breakout of Max Meyer.

Sean Millerick: Well, they are definitely winning more than I expected. I didn't think enough had been done in the offseason to improve, or even to survive regression from 2025. On the regression front, Jakob Marsee has had a far more challenging 2026 than I imagined, while the plan for first base coming into the year went just as horribly as we all thought it would. And yet...the Marlins are playing their best baseball of the last ten years. A positive run differential? Never saw that coming. Liam Hicks doing his best impression of being a franchise cornerstone? Knock me over with Esteury Ruiz. The only negative for me here is Pete Fairbanks. I really believed—and not just on account of having the same music tastes. Certainly I thought him pitching at an All-Star level would be the key to a Marlins breakout, along with similarly strong efforts from Robby Snelling and/or Thomas White. None of that happened, and the Fish still might be better than I ever thought they could be in 2026. Go figure.

 

2. By any measure, Otto Lopez has been the team's most valuable player. Who would you say is second on that list?

Ely: Max Meyer. He and Sandy Alcantara have been crucial to the club all season long given the constant anxiety about starting rotation depth. Alcantara tops him—and every other MLB pitcher—in innings, but the difference in run prevention tips the scale in Meyer's favor. He's been equally good against right-handed and left-handed batters, unbothered by traffic on the bases and trustworthy when given a long leash to work through the sixth and seventh. Although I think Meyer will regress a bit after the break, I can't take anything away from what he has accomplished thus far.

Kevin: Max Meyer has clearly been the Marlins' most valuable pitcher. He may not be an ace by any means, but his consistency and ability to keep the Marlins in games is a reason as to why the Marlins are where they are. One other name I'd like to mention is Joe Mack. The value he has provided this team behind the plate has been game-changing. If he keeps this up, Mack will appear on National League Rookie of the Year ballots.

Louis: Max Meyer, especially considering no one forecasted this level of improvement.

Hector: Probably Max Meyer. He’s the other All-Star and has had a major breakout season.

Sean McCormack: Xavier Edwards has shored up the middle infield beside Otto, creating an elite shortstop-second base combo. He would be my second-most valuable player.

Daniel: I would say it’s the player who also made the All-Star team in Max Meyer. He has easily been the best pitcher on the team. I would also include Joe Mack in the conversation as the team has completely turned around since his arrival.

Sean Millerick: Otto is definitely the answer for the top spot, but it speaks to the surprising quality of this 2026 club how much competition there is for that second spot. The Marlins MVP runner-up has to be Joe Mack. So much has been written on this across multiple platforms over the past couple weeks, but it has been absolutely remarkable how transformational Mack's arrival has been for this team. Indeed, when it comes to a new Marlins player making an immediate impact like this, he's on a very short list already, and could be at the top by season's end. He's in D-Train territory.

 

3. Agustín Ramírez, Graham Pauley and Connor Norby have all been demoted to the minors. Which of them do you think is most likely to turn their season around?

Ely: It's head-scratching that both Ramírez and Norby are down in Triple-A right now while inferior righty bats Rece Hinds and Brian Navarreto occupy active roster spots. That will change relatively soon, especially if Norby continues to get reps as an outfielder. Norby's process at the plate looked good back in April and we know there's more power potential than he's shown in games so far this year. Being a versatile defender is almost as important as being a good defender because it creates a path to semi-regular playing time, so I'll go with Norby.

Kevin: Tough question, but I think it's Pauley. He has already proven that he can turn a season around, like we saw in 2025. I think his second demotion to Triple-A was a bit unfair given the nice series he had in St. Louis and he should've been given a longer leash with how rough Miami's third base situation has been. Ramírez would be second, but what kept him from being the most likely candidate is that he is still a full-time catcher. He needs to be moved off the position.

Louis: Each have their own strengths, yet they’re largely overshadowed by their warts. Pauley’s defensive aptitude and potential for more from his bat make him feel the appropriate choice here.

Hector: If the Marlins finally decide to move Agustín Ramírez away from catcher, I think he can be a very productive power bat for Miami’s lineup.

Sean McCormack: I would wager Agustín Ramírez due to the potential he has at the plate.

Daniel: Connor Norby.

Sean Millerick: Pauley would be my answer for now. He's capable of providing the best defense at the team's weakest position, and showed last season that he can put together enough of a run  to contribute on offense as well. However, if the team goes out and gets a third baseman, he'd suddenly become the least likely of the three to even return to Miami's roster at all in 2026. Norby has enough position flexibility that he just needs an opening somewhere, and Owen Caissie might have just provided it if he ends up missing all of July. Ramirez is firmly in third, at least until he stops playing catcher.

 

4. How would you evaluate Clayton McCullough as a manager through 1.5 seasons on the job?

Ely: I can understand why the Marlins hired McCullough in the first place. He is very disciplined and completely aligned with the front office, even when their strategies are unorthodox and unsatisfying to watch. Also, there is unquestionably some intangible value to keeping peace in the clubhouse, and the Marlins have been drama-free during his tenure, as far as we can tell. McCullough has been responsible for some atrocious in-game substitutions and he's never contrite about them. I'd like to see growth in that area—simply being able to admit he made the wrong call under high stress and will learn from it, rather than insisting he has full conviction every time.

Kevin: So far, it's been a mixed bag. Clearly, the organization has made it a point to lean into platoon splits when putting together lineups, sitting some of their hottest hitters as a result. Those moves have worked out for the most part, as the Marlins lineup against left-handed pitching has improved and the pinch-hitting has been good. What this entire coaching staff lacks at times is feel for the game, with Eury Pérez's perfect-game bid on July 5 being the most notable example. The players seem to be fans of McCullough and the rest of the coaching staff and overall have been good. With the Marlins' improvement from one year to the next, McCullough could be in the mix for the National League Manager of the Year award.

Louis: I’ve generally resigned myself from giving managers too much credit, instead reserving praise for the front office and all of the behind the scenes folk. That said, the team is clearly more competent under this current regime.

Hector: I’d give him a B. The team is playing very well, but he still makes some questionable decisions when it comes to pitching.

Sean McCormack: B overall. Clayton appears to have a firm grip of the clubhouse, the roster plays hard for him, but questionable lineup construction more so than bullpen decisions leave me wanting more.

Daniel: There have been a lot of ups and a lot of downs in Clayton‘s tenure as Marlins manager for the past year and a half. The way the team is performing right now makes it easier to rate Clayton’s tenure more favorably.

Sean Millerick: Like all of us, he's a work in progress? Zen take aside, this remains the hardest thing for me to put my finger on for the Marlins. I'm old school enough to think he has to have played a part in building the scrappy, competitive, hard-working, in-every-game-until-the-end clubhouse that has emerged. So for that, he deserves full kudos. Where I get confused is how much control he really has over some of those decisions that get both the most praise and the most scrutiny. On the one hand, I would love it if I felt there were more moments where he looked at the front office spreadsheet and said, "No thanks. Sandy is built different." Or that history matters. Or simply that he's watched Calvin Faucher pitch. But on the other hand, if those spreadsheets say something will work out 60% of the time, he should probably always do that. It's just unfortunate for McCullough that he's had a couple stretches where the 40% outcome came in bunches. Short answer is a B, but like any good Peter Bendix staffer, I need more data.

 

5. Any specific names who you believe the Marlins should pursue prior to next month's MLB trade deadline?

Ely: Los Angeles Angels left-hander Reid Detmers. He'd bring much-needed swing-and-miss ability to the Marlins rotation. Despite a 4.39 ERA this season (95 ERA+), Detmers has made strides with his control, and on his best days, he's completely dominant. Also, he showed in 2025 that he can be valuable out of the bullpen if needed in that capacity. Crucially for the Marlins, he is under club control through 2028 and will be making far below his market value. I'd be comfortable building a package around pitching prospect Karson Milbrandt to get it done.

Reid Detmers, K'ing the Side in the 2nd.

5Ks thru 2 pic.twitter.com/yxhtdTgTC4

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 20, 2026

Kevin: The clear need for the Marlins is at third base, but finding a great right-handed bat on the trade market is tough to do these days. Gleyber Torres could be a name that the Marlins make a trade for. He is on a one-year deal that he took in free agency. He has been hurt for a good chunk of the season, but his past minor league experience at third base and what he can provide in the lineup can truly help this team right now. Our own Louis Addeo-Weiss mentioned Robbie Ray as an option, and I like it. Ray has been good this season and provides length, plus his Giants team will clearly be selling. The sexy move at the deadline would be trading for Aroldis Chapman, who is currently with the Boston Red Sox. It is still unknown if the Red Sox will buy or sell this deadline, but if he is moved, Chapman immediately becomes the closer in Miami to fortify an already-good Marlins bullpen.

Louis: Aroldis Chapman, Robbie Ray, Matt Chapman. Time for Sherman to open up the checkbook.

Hector: Josh Jung would be an excellent option for the Fish at third base if the Rangers are willing to move him at the trade deadline.

Sean McCormack: I would like at least one of three problems I see upgraded: third base (Casey Schmitt), back-end reliever (Garrett Whitlock) and mid-rotation starter on expiring deal (Michael Soroka).

Daniel: The name I think the Marlins should look at first is Aroldis Chapman.

Sean Millerick: I wouldn't be true to myself if I didn't still say Luis Arraez. All he does is hit, he can play first, and he can even be a backup plan for an Xavier Edwards injury at second now that he's discovered how to play good defense there. Most importantly, though, despite being cursed with left-handedness, he can hit lefties (.321 in 2026, .279 career), which is ultimately all I want from whichever bat Miami does go after. Willson Contreras? Yes, please. Nathaniel Lowe? Still a modest improvement, and one or two modest improvements might be all the Marlins need. Most of the likely third base options don't wow me, so just coming up with better platoon options than Leo Jiménez and Brian Navarreto would be enough to make me happy. Jeff Passan's latest report has me dreaming of Josh Hader in teal, plus it's worth noting that the perennial Marlins trade partner Padres are shopping that Mason Miller guy also.

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[One Regend]

1. I expected 2025 or worse. This was an unexpected, but welcome surprise.

2. Many would say Max Meyer, and they would be right. In the 2025 offseason, during winter, I was the biggest detractor of Max Meyer, believing he's an absolute bust of a draft pick and thinking he's a mid-leverage relief pitcher at best. I would always recall the Marlins giving him a 5-0 lead in the first inning and he would absolutely squander that lead. To see him evolve the way he has, has since humbled my opinion on him.

3. Agustin Ramirez is talented with the bat. But the Marlins are doing him no favors by stubbornly starting him games as a Catcher when we have 2+ years worth of data proving he doesn't have the chops to be there. Sadly, with the emergence of Joe Mack, who is already saving runs and providing decent value, and one of Liam Hicks or Kyle Stowers being the 1B/DH, Gus has no real lane to get any major playing time. Sadly, I think he is the one that has the best shot of turning his season around, and it's not going to be with the Marlins when he does. Norby's limited offense does not make up for his defensive shortcomings, and the less said about Pauley's offense, the better.

4. Clayton McCullough is doing fine as a filler manager, but if the Marlins want to take their game to another level, they're going to have to bring in a winner. I don't see a future championship with McCullough on the team.

5. I don't have any specific names, but the Marlins should at least bring a mid-level left-handed rotation arm, preferably with at least 3 years of control. Somebody mentioned Reid Detmers, and that's an excellent pickup. I'll even venture to say it won't take a Karson Milbrandt to acquire him. The Los Angeles Angels are a  laughably incompetent front office. You could throw a Jacob Berry at them and they'll see a #6 overall pick and eat it up, only for them to learn the hard way that Jacob Berry is an insanely overrated prospect who only provides mediocre value on the levels of Colin Moran. 3B is also a very sore spot, and honestly, is the spot where the Marlins are very likely to give up a top prospect.

[Jose Herrera]

1. I expected us to have these many wins and losses, but with Gus and Marsee playing bigger roles. Plus, I thought Robbie Snelling and Thomas White would have been a part of our starting rotation too.

2. I pick Xavier Edwards. X is not far behind Otto; he is an All-Star.

3. Difficult question because there is currently no regular playing time available for all three. I say Gus if manages to pass Brian Navarreto on our depth chart.

4. A+. Should he really have a career 131-128 record considering the team he began with?

5. A week ago, I said Aroldis Chapman, Jarren Duran and Sonny Gray but lately the Red Sox have been playing much better. Now I say trade for Angels starting pitcher Jose Soriano.

[One Regend]

34 minutes ago, Jose Herrera said:

1. I expected us to have these many wins and losses, but with Gus and Marsee playing bigger roles. Plus, I thought Robbie Snelling and Thomas White would have been a part of our starting rotation around now too.

2. I pick Xavier Edwards. X is not far behind Otto; he is an All-Star.

3. Difficult question because there is currently no regular playing time available for all three. I say Gus if manages to pass Brian Navarreto on our depth chart.

4. A+. Should he really have a career 131-128 record considering where we started?

5. A week ago, I said Aroldis Chapman, Jarren Duran and Sonny Gray but lately the Red Sox have been playing much better. Now I say trade for Angels starting pitchers Jose Soriano.

1. Absolutely agreed. I expected Gus to be at 1B, and Marsee to not OPS .620, and did not expect literally every single starting pitcher prospect in the Marlins system to undergo season-ending surgery. Even Kemp Alderman would've had MLB experience by now if it wasn't for his IL stint prior.

2. X is a solid third choice. Let's also not forget Liam Hicks and his sudden emergence, too.

3. Yeah. Agustin is really the only one of the three who has a chance to turn it around, And it won't happen at the MLB level, because calling him up as a catcher would be a mistake. He needs reps somewhere else. Anywhere but catcher.

4. I would rate McCullough a C. While the Marlins have performed great under his watch, it's more in spite of his lineup decisions and pitching decisions. And while the Front Office may have something to do with this, it is ultimately his decision to make these calls in the first place. The game where he took Sandy out of the game without even asking him how he feels at the time, still stands out as the sore memory for me.

This team would benefit from a manager that will use the spreadsheets the front office gives him, but won't be afraid of taking that spreadsheet and ripping it into shreds because he's watching Owen Caissie vaporizing baseballs and Eury Perez absolutely dissecting Athletics batters who are desperate to see anyone from the Marlins bullpen.

5. Soriano is a pretty decent choice. But, I think the Marlins are in need of a good lefty starter. Right now, they're running an all-righty rotation, and that's not conducive to longterm success. They could use Soriano's teammate, Reid Detmers. Maybe even package Detmers with a relief pitcher, as the Marlins also have a notoriously leaky bullpen as of late, especially now that John King is injured.

[Jose Herrera]

@One Regend I enjoyed reading your response regarding the Angels' dysfunctional front office. I would have mentioned Reid Detmers and some relief pitchers but keep in mind we still have Braxton Garrett, Jack Ralston & Josh White all pitching great in Triple-A. 

Also, do not forget about longest tenured Marlin, left-handed starting pitching Luis Palacios. He is pitching well in the minor leagues.

[Jose Herrera]

In addition to my expectations, I did not think we would be able to draft the players we did! Lombard, Kleinschmit, Peterson, Roberson & Sasaki!?!? We even drafted a player from Switzerland!

If you have never heard of Rintaro Sasaki, I suggest searching for him on the internet.

[Miller Lepree]

Nice recap. Interested to see how the 2nd half and deadline go. Still apprehensive to trust this team and daydream about a deep playoff run. But man was June fun to watch. Even spoiled me, and seeing that sweep this weekend was more frustrating than most Marlins sweeps I've watched. Need them to get back to it with a full head of steam. 

 

I'll revisit some items from my Wish List blog I wrote at the end of ST.

1. Aggressive call-ups: Mack is here. That's nice. Snelling got the call but we all know what happened next. 

2. 3 pitchers reach 130 IP: Sandy is already at 130. That's great. Max is closing in, and should blow past 130. Eury, with continued health and recent performance, should get to 150+ by season's end. I also hoped for Paddack to get snipped if others were performing. We had no options and he got snipped anyway.

3. A right handed hitter logs an OPS+ over 120: Hey Otto, how ya doin? Keep it up. 

4. Caissie & Stowers combine for 50 bombs: Feels like a long shot, but with Stowers heating up it could happen. Hope Owen's injury is minor. 

5. Eury gets the Sandy treatment: No extensions yet. Assuming at this point nothing happens until the off season if at all. Sherman's recent comments about Sandy were interesting. I'd throw him a deal, too. Heck, even Meyer. Probably don't want to tie up too much $ in the rotation. 

 

I'm now wondering with recent rumors who gets moved at the deadline. Bendix smells like a prospect hugger, and the cupboard is suddenly thin. I don't hate the idea of moving Liam Hicks for a 3B or more versatile bat if the opportunity arises. Some combination of Stowers/Augustin/Berto/Conine should be able to replace him, but his bat to ball is so nice. I don't want a team full of whiffers who hit 19 homers a year. Anyhow great work by the FoF staff all season and hoping for more success and winning in the second half.