Miami Marlins fans expecting quick hook for Clayton McCullough likely kidding themselves

[Sean Millerick]

Did I ever tell you about my greatest moment writing about the Miami Marlins? 

It came eleven years ago this past Sunday. The year was 2015. Miami was 16-21 under Mike Redmond. That fateful morning, I wrote an article making the case for why Redmond wouldn't manage another game for Miami if that record hit 16-22. 

Redmond was fired shortly after that afternoon's loss. 

Now, my editor at the time referred to my prediction as "pure speculation." Personally, I'd have preferred "astute analysis" of an owner in love with the legacy of his one successful season that was happy to change owners as often as Miguel Rojas changes sneakers. Jeff Torborg was fired at 16-22, and the Marlins went on to win a title. Jeffrey Loria was exactly the kind of owner who would be willing to believe lightning could strike twice. As my four-year old has taken to saying lately, easy-peasy, lemon-squeezy. 

After a true only in Miami adventure with Dan Jennings recently discussed on Fish Unfiltered, the club hired Don Mattingly next offseason. 

The Marlins haven't fired a manager since. 

Which brings us, dear reader, to current Marlins skipper Clayton McCullough and the point of that parable. For beyond the obvious lesson that I should be making ESPN money for that bit of prognostication, there is also a lesson far more useful for today's Marlins devotee. For fan temperature seems to have reached a point where it's worth pointing out how unlikely a manager change is this season, and how little of an impact it would even have on any of the things fans are angry about. 

Before diving into McCullough specifically, allow me to address anyone sitting there thinking I'm off in my terminated manager count. Sure, you could read between the lines all you want on Miami's "mutual parting of the ways" with Mattingly and Skip Schumaker. However, you can't deny that Bruce Sherman has never fired a manger— capital F, publicly stating you were bad at your job Fired—during his tenure. Manager or general manager, all prominent changes happened in the offseason, with the mask of those mutual differences. He has been far more patient than his predecessor. Partly, that comes down to what is surely just a genuine difference in temperament between Loria and Sherman. Yet it's hard to conclude that just as much of it hasn't been a deliberate commitment to changing Miami's image. Change was needed. 

In other words, Sherman's track record says no change is coming before October. Period. Everyone the Marlins have moved on from completed their contract. McCullough is extremely unlikely to be an exception. 

It's also important to stress the difference in circumstances. Every other time a Marlins manager has been fired midseason, there were serious expectations for better play, ones typically backed by aggressive offseason signings and/or front office bluster. The 2026 Marlins expected to better, sure, but drawing a comp between them and the 1996, 2001, 2003, 2010, and 2015 Marlins would be pushing it. Those teams were all much better positioned for success. As I've said before, John Boles is probably the best comparison for Clayton McCullough when it comes to previous Marlins skippers. But if McCullough does go as Boles did, it's more likely to be like when Miami moved on from Boles after 1996 than during 2001.  

This team was supposed to improve, and still might. That doesn't mean the investment in it happening was high enough to warrant an early firing though if that improvement doesn't happen. There has been no Guillen-esque PR disaster. No clubhouse meeting heard round the world. Nothing off the field to support such a rash decision. 

Bringing it back to McCullough specifically though, there are two reasons that Marlins fans shouldn't be so quick to wish for him being shown the door. Or at the very least, thinking it will change anything.

For one, what would a manager firing do to the identify of those scrappy, in every game to the very last out Miami Marlins you've come to know and love? Obviously, much of that has to do with the players on the field. But a team's identity does tend to be linked to the individual leading it, and that's McCullough. Would a new manager push all those same buttons? Would this clubhouse receive a change well? Again, there's been no evidence that McCullough has lost it. Just evidence that a talent gap remains between the Marlins and more serious contenders. That's not a McCullough problem. It's a front office one. 

Secondly, let's talk a little bit more about that front office. They aren't going anywhere. Back in the old days of 1993-2023, changing the manager might have had a dramatic impact on how Miami operates. In the brave new world Peter Bendix and company have brought the Marlins into? Waaaay more debatable. That's not a slight against the team's increased reliance on analytics either but merely to say that any new manager Miami brings in is going to be expected to continue to tow the company line. 

Meaning that any of the things that have upset fans to this point are still going to be there. Platoons. Bullpen decisions. Quick hooks for starting pitchers. All of those decisions have been backed by a massive pile of numbers. The Marlins are going to continue to provide their manager those numbers...and expect their manager to act on them. 

None of that adds up to a manager change making sense for the Marlins in 2026. 

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