Marlins not planning a 'significant payroll increase' for 2026

[Ely Sussman]

Back on October 1, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported that the Miami Marlins payroll was "expected to rise" from its 2025 level, "but the extent of the increase remains to be determined." Jackson provided an update on Friday in the aftermath of the club agreeing to terms on a one-year deal with free agent Christopher Morel: "a source said last week that while the payroll will increase some, a significant payroll increase would not happen."

While it's unclear what "significant" means, the 2025 Marlins had a year-end 40-man roster payroll of $67.7 million, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. Their luxury-tax payroll estimate was $84.9 million. Since Bruce Sherman took over as the franchise's principal owner during the 2017-18 offseason, the Marlins have perennially ranked in the bottom third of MLB team spending, but they had never been dead last in either category until now.

For context, from 2022-24, the Marlins averaged a 40-man payroll of $97.1 million and a luxury-tax payroll of $123.6 million.

Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic previously theorized that "the Marlins might be operating with an additional motivation" because they did not come close to spending 150% of their league revenue-sharing intake on player payroll—approximately $105 million for luxury-tax purposes. "When a club fails to hit the specified number, the burden of proof shifts from the (Major League Baseball Players Association) to the club," encouraging the union to file a greivance against them. The Athletics found themselves in a similar predicament last winter and their payroll spiked accordingly.

Jackson disputes the notion that the Marlins are concerned about this. If challenged by the MLBPA, they will argue that an ample amount of money is being spent to bolster the organization's infrastructure ("things you don't see," to quote Sherman himself).

President of baseball operations Peter Bendix has been clear that the Marlins' overarching goal is to qualify for the postseason as frequently as possible. Coming off a 79-win season, they are only a few effective moves away from genuinely contending for an October berth. Yet the budget is apparently so tight that Bendix had to address the team's biggest weakness—first base—by rolling the dice on Morel, who's coming off a sub-replacement-level season and has zero experience at the position?

As currently constituted, the 40-man roster payroll for the 2026 Marlins would already be in the $70 million range (though that is based on my rough estimates of Morel's compensation and not-yet-determined salaries for arbitration-eligible players).

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[JustMarlins]

[bushfindsjesus]

[BMK3]

last year Sherman said "we will spend money when it is indicated".  Earth to Bruce..... "it is indicated".

[One Regend]

[JustMarlins]

Now I really want them to hold on to Cabrera. If they’re willing to gamble on the offense, it makes sense to hold on to the Starters since it is the strength of this team. 

[Miami Italiano]

Call Billy Beane and get the moneyball rolling

[THOMAS JOSEPH]

David Samson had a segment breaking the canard that revenue sharing was strictly for direct payroll. No grievance in this area ever succeeded. After the new CBA, García and the other smaller sunk contracts are completed, plus the Stanton residual payments will be nearly settled, as well. The team will be in much better financial shape, I bet, coinciding with its window on the field.

[David Slaton]

On 12/17/2025 at 6:23 AM, THOMAS JOSEPH said:

David Samson had a segment breaking the canard that revenue sharing was strictly for direct payroll. No grievance in this area ever succeeded. After the new CBA, García and the other smaller sunk contracts are completed, plus the Stanton residual payments will be nearly settled, as well. The team will be in much better financial shape, I bet, coinciding with its window on the field.

I'm glad somebody else enjoyed that David Samson explanation. It's rarely talked about in the baseball media world. Media frequently try to use the 150% of revenue sharing as some kind of salary floor and it's just not that according to Samson's explanation.

[THOMAS JOSEPH]

10 hours ago, David Slaton said:

I'm glad somebody else enjoyed that David Samson explanation. It's rarely talked about in the baseball media world. Media frequently try to use the 150% of revenue sharing as some kind of salary floor and it's just not that according to Samson's explanation.

You're right on. It's like a mantra. My thoughts are that the post-CBA team financials will be nicely aligned, provided the 2027 season isn't lost. Like the pandemic losses, another lost season would be devastating for the financially tight teams, like ours. Merry Christmas.