Another Marlins/Phillies trade? Why Mick Abel may need a change of scenery to succeed

[Kevin Barral]

The last trade between the Marlins and Phillies is trending toward being a win for Dave Dombrowski. In December, the Phillies acquired Jesús Luzardo for prospects Starlyn Caba and Emaarion Boyd. Although Luzardo has been hit hard on a few occasions to inflate his ERA to 4.48, he's been able to make every scheduled start so far in 2025 and record four double-digit strikeout games. Meanwhile, there is very little evidence that Caba or Boyd will be able to hit enough to develop into everyday big leaguers. Through 73 combined games this season, they have a .211 batting average and only two home runs despite repeating levels they already played at in 2024.

The Marlins are open to doing business with their National League East counterparts. Could we see another trade between them this month? The Phils have a clear need for bullpen upgrades as they cling to first place, and they have a young starter to offer in exchange who may have a better chance of reaching his potential with the Fish.

Right-hander Mick Abel is in an interesting situation. Taken with the 15th pick of the 2020 draft by the Phillies, Abel made his MLB debut back in May. He had mixed results in six starts, posting a 5.04 ERA, 6.25 FIP, 7.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 25 innings pitched. After his worst outing this past Wednesday, Abel was demoted back to Triple-A.

Abel has a five-pitch mix: fastball, curveball, slider, sinker, and changeup. The fastball velocity is upper-echelon for a starter sitting 96.2 mph and it has very strong shape, though it has not performed well (.729 xSLG, and 51.7 HH%). Abel works in the top part of the strike zone with the pitch, which has led to a high whiff rate, but it gets hit hard when contact is made. He is able to get down the mound with above-average extension, combining this with a solid 16 inches of induced vertical break and a low vertical approach angle.

Abel is in the 92nd percentile of high strike zone location for his four-seam. Becoming less reliant on the fastball will help him bring down the damage and reduce the fly ball rate against it. 

Abel’s breaking balls, the curveball and slider, have performed the best in the majors. The curveball gets great depth and is thrown in the zone at a high rate. This pitch has also been hit hard, however, it's getting a great 38.6% whiff rate (79th percentile among all curveballs). The slider has held opponents to only a .176 BA, and .187 wOBA. It has sharp break, less sweep and depth compared to the curveball, and also lives in the zone (95th percentile zone location among all sliders).

Lastly, Abel's sinker and changeup are platoon pitches. He uses the sinker strictly to righties and he's able to get much-needed ground balls with it. The pitch generates good armside movement and spin. Utilized only 4% of the time, the changeup is thrown to lefties and he currently lacks command of it.

Overall, the 23-year-old former top prospect has great stuff. The FanGraphs Stuff+ model has him at 109, with 100 representing the MLB average.

Mick Abel would undergo massive changes if he were to be hypothetically traded to the Marlins. He would benefit from utilizing more of his arsenal. That would include simply throwing his best pitches (slider and curveball) more often, and likely increasing his sinker usage at the expense of his four-seam fastball to generate more grounders.

Becoming less four-seam centric has been a pillar of the Marlins's new pitching philosophy and Abel could benefit greatly from the approach. He has the stuff and specifically the secondary pitches to fit in perfectly with Miami.

There are some similarities between Abel and Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Quinn Priester. Once regarded as a top prospect in the Pirates organization, Priester was traded to the Boston Red Sox, then moved again to the Brewers earlier this season, where his performance has significantly improved. In 2025, he's posting a 3.59 ERA, 4.21 FIP, 7.1 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 through 16 games (12 starts). He took the mound for Milwaukee on Friday night against the Marlins and took a no-decision.

Another interesting comp: Ryan Weathers. His former team, the San Diego Padres, was also in a position to win immediately and Weathers struggled in that environment. The Marlins were more patient with him after acquiring the left-hander at the 2023 trade deadline. The following season, his career took off. In 16 starts in 2024, Weathers posted a 3.63 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 8.3 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9. If not for injuries, he was poised for a true breakout this season. Still only 25 years old, he's considered a key piece of Miami's long-term rotation plans.

 

Trade proposal: Marlins acquire Mick Abel in exchange for Anthony Bender and Calvin Faucher 

The Phillies currently rank 24th in bullpen ERA and they already know veteran lefty José Alvarado will be ineligible for the postseason due to a PED suspension. They could use the services of multiple high-leverage arms. Through 38 appearances, Anthony Bender has posted a 2.13 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 6.6 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9. As for Calvin Faucher, he's posted a 4.18 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 8.4 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 through 36 appearances.

Bender, who is under club control through 2027, has a dominant sweeper. That pitch has a plus-eight run value this season and hitters have a .079 batting average against it. Bender is allowing more contact than usual, but he has a 51.9% ground ball rate, which is right in line with his career average of 51.4%.

It has been an inconsistent season for Faucher—4.32 ERA in April and 6.52 ERA in May, then a 3.18 ERA in June. His cutter and curveball have been his above-average pitches this season. He's given up only two home runs over the last two years combined. The right-hander comes with even more control than Bender as he isn't even arbitration-eligible for the first time until 2026.

Abel would likely report to Triple-A Jacksonville initially with the hopes of returning to the majors as a September call-up, or at the very least, contending for a permanent rotation spot next spring.

View full article

[One Regend]

I'm going to guess that Peter Bendix looked at the top 100 prospect list, saw Starlyn Caba on it, and was like "Yeah, that's our guy" without even looking at what Caba was doing at Low A, and/or without looking at his frame and projecting what he could be.

That is the only reason I can think of for Starlyn Caba being the headliner for Jesus Luzardo. What an embarrassment.

Just another painful reminder not to rely entirely on Top 100 Prospects Lists. They're an OK barometer of prospect value, but should never be taken as an end-all be-all gospel.

You would think we'd learn this lesson after the Christian Yelich fiasco, but nope, we made the same mistake again.

[1993 fan from start]

 

3 hours ago, One Regend said:

I'm going to guess that Peter Bendix looked at the top 100 prospect list, saw Starlyn Caba on it, and was like "Yeah, that's our guy" without even looking at what Caba was doing at Low A, and/or without looking at his frame and projecting what he could be.

That is the only reason I can think of for Starlyn Caba being the headliner for Jesus Luzardo. What an embarrassment.

Just another painful reminder not to rely entirely on Top 100 Prospects Lists. They're an OK barometer of prospect value, but should never be taken as an end-all be-all gospel.

You would think we'd learn this lesson after the Christian Yelich fiasco, but nope, we made the same mistake again.

You would think we'd learn this lesson after the Christian Yelich fiasco, but nope, we made the same mistake again. Diffrent group of people you are talking about . Jeter who had his hand and say on  Christian Yelich trade.   Christian Yelich one of types of player you don't trade.

[1993 fan from start]

Right now I say no.   I am sticking with  Jackson Jobe .  would not trade two bullpen player in same trade. unless return better.