How can the Marlins adapt to loanDepot park?

[Sean McCormack]

What kind of players are best suited to take advantage of the ballpark dimensions and overall conditions in Miami? 

So many factors can influence how a ballpark plays, including altitude, temperature, wind, time of day, humidity and outfield dimensions. Through its first 13 seasons, loanDepot park's profile has been a moving target. On two separate occasions, the outfield walls were lowered and brought inward, changing what was initially a very pitcher-friendly environment into a somewhat neutral one. However, it still has its quirks and the Miami Marlins should be taking that into consideration when acquiring and developing players.

The near-sea level altitude and humidity continue to impact ball flight at loanDepot park, making it the ninth-toughest MLB venue to hit home runs, according to Statcast Park Factors three-year rolling averages. The outfield dimensions are still relatively large. Combined with having plenty of foul ground to cover, that results in double and triples occurring at well above-average rates.

These are the full year-by-year park factors for loanDepot dating back to 2012, with 100 representing league average. Anything above that favors hitters and anything below that favors pitchers. 

The Marlins operate with a lower payroll than the majority of MLB teams. They must be constantly searching for market inefficiencies, including ways to create a home-field advantage for themselves.

 

What types of hitters to target

The Marlins have tried several different offensive strategies during the loanDepot park era. For example, in what would be her final season as general manager, Kim Ng built the 2023 roster with a contact-orientated approach in mind. The lineup featured batting champ Luis Arraez, Jean Segura, Joey Wendle and Yuli Gurriel with some contributions from Xavier Edwards down the stretch. That team ranked fourth in the majors in batting average, but was below average in overall production. The Marlins made the playoffs largely due to their run prevention and clutch performance. 

In today's game where defensive positioning has become so advanced, hitting for power is very important. Across Major League Baseball, hitters average a 88.5 mph exit velocity and 36.5 HardHit%. Judging by the hitters who've had the most success at loanDepot, I believe the Marlins should use 90.5 mph exit velo and 43.5 HardHit% as their general thresholds when considering making acquisitions. Giancarlo Stanton, Adam Duvall, Jesús Sánchez, Jorge Soler, Jake Burger, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, Jorge Alfaro, Justin Bour...all of these names cleared those thresholds when playing in Miami.

It is usually expensive to obtain MLB veterans with track records of hitting for power. The Marlins need to find these players at earlier stages of their careers through the amateur draft (Kemp Alderman), minor league trades (Deyvison De Los Santos) and international free agency. 

This is not to say the Marlins should limit themselves to that profile. There are other ways for players to facilitate run production. Slap hitters with an elite eye like Xavier Edwards can work at loanDepot. With his combination of speed, contact ability and plate discipline, he's been able to utilize the spacious outfield and foul territory to create chaos. 

 

What types of pitchers to target

In recent years, the Marlins have gone with a non-four-seam fastball approach to pitching. This falls in line with a league-wide theme. MLB teams have found four-seam fastballs that do not reach a velo threshold of around 93 mph and an IVB (induced vertical break) of at least 17 inches have a high likelihood of resulting in damage.

Pitchers with lower velos can counteract this by throwing more sinkers. The pitch's movement causes an increase in grounders and keep balls in the park even when they're hit hard. Certain teams such as the Boston Red Sox and San Francisco Giants have found themselves throwing more offspeed pitches than fastballs, which breaks a decades-long MLB tradition.

I believe the Marlins could look to acquire more high IVB four-seam pitchers. If more and more teams revert back to an east-to-west style of pitching that optimizes sinkers and cutters to limit damage and uses offspeed stuff to rack up strikeouts, why not zag by pursuing north-to-south types? My reasoning behind this is that loanDepot park enables pitchers to get away with more mistakes on high heaters. Home runs hit down the lines at Yankee Stadium are often harmless flyouts in Miami. High IVB pitchers can operate with more confidence. 

Clearly, the Marlins have struggled with team defense. That is problematic when you play home games at a ballpark that allows a high rate of singles, doubles and triples. In 2024, there were 18 Marlins pitchers who surrendered a BABIP above .300 and 11 of them were non-four-seam fastball pitchers.

Overall, I believe if the Marlins prioritize stuff over weak contact, it will better suit how loanDepot plays and complement the core of position players currently in place who have more potential with their bats than their gloves. 

 

Defensive shading and speed 

Baseball Savant provides team positioning graphics dating back to 2016. The first graphic shows the positioning of the 2024 Marlins, who were the worst-rated Marlins team during that period in terms of outs above average (OAA). The second graphic shows 2018, which was the Marlins' best season in terms of OAA. (Note: infield shifts were practically eliminated prior to the 2023 season due to MLB rule changes.)

 

 

Team speed is imperative to playing successful defense at loanDepot park. Outfielders need to have the range to guard the gaps while also making plays in foul territory. However, even the best athletes lean on coaching and scouting reports so that they're shaded in the right direction. This past season, Marlins outfielders rarely adjusted their positioning from batter to batter. The results suggest the team should be investing more time and energy in these details.

The impact of speed extends even further than defense. Athleticism and high IQ on the basepaths can add runs to any team's offense. The Marlins have finished top 15 in total bases stolen during four of the last five seasons. New pickoff rules and enlarged bases have incentivized base-stealing all around the league, and I believe the Marlins should use that to their advantage. 

 

Overall strategy

To construct a team that fits your home ballpark as best as possible, it all begins with identifying the proper skill sets. In the case of loanDepot park, that calls for a combination of gap power, speed, whiff, more attention to defensive positioning and some elite sluggers capable of clearing the fences. In his second year running the Marlins front office, hopefully we see Peter Bendix make moves with those factors in mind. 

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[Stanley J Makowski]

This is a good time to add this old fool's thoughts to the above theme. I must commence by differing with nearly everything that is presented.

Let's start with a few facts as I see them:

1) The park is huge which is detrimental to power in general.

2) As stated above, power hitters are more expensive, and this runs contrary to our owner's very being.

3) Also as mentioned above, the park is conducive to seeing increased base hits from singles to triples.

4) Speed here is a definite essential on both offense and defense.

5) If defensive positioning was lacking during this past year, that reflects poorly on the coaching staff.

6) One could make a reasonable argument that several players were playing defensive positions for which they are ill suited. Again, we must look to the coaching staff as well as the manager.

Considering all of the above, can added power have a positive effect?

Rather this protagonist would advocate a nearly opposite approach:

1) First and foremost, a competent hitting coach is critical. These uppercut swings must be better controlled. The terrible toll that results from "taking" called third strikes must be addressed. The almost universal inability to be able to bunt at all should be addressed next Spring.  Many Marlin players can hit adequately with no one on base, but their performance in "scoring" situations is dismal. 

2) My goal would be to seek players with good to excellent OBP. 

3) There is speed on this team already, but it was generally underutilized. 

4) An abundance of speed can disrupt the opposing players and sometimes visibly knock them off of their own game.

 

Would all of my ideas lead to a better winning percentage?

Yes, and for one very pertinent reason. THIS TEAM WILL HAVE EXCELLENT PITCHING NEXT YEAR. It would be hoped, and should be expected, that it will take fewer runs to win a game.

After all of the above, I damn sure better have some proposals for consideration:

1) Put Edwards where he belongs at 2B.

2 Leave Fortes alone. He is a fine defensive catcher who has an excellent record of putting his bat on the ball. If he can already do that, then we come back to a competent hitting coach. He showed marked improvement during the season's second half, so build on it. Remember how critical the pitching will be, let's not muck that up with some new guy who knows nothing about them.

3) Bride seems to be an asset to the team. However, he hits more like a 3rd baseman than a 1st baseman. So put him there and get Norby far away from that bag where he certainly doesn't belong.

4) Norby has shown enough potential to be a right-hand platoon outfielder. Put him in LF along with either Conine or a player picked up in trade and let him run! But by all means, dump Stowers.

5) I read nothing of substance about little Sanoja, but to my way of thinking, he can be a critical piece to the overall puzzle. The guy has hit (a la our ballpark) wherever he has played, and he can run, run, and run some more. But where to place him? Could he play SS on a ML level, or CF for that matter. Either would make a critical difference.

6) And now for Otto Lopez. Could he play the short field? If not, out he goes to RF to platoon with Sanchez. The shortstop situation is still probably unresolved under my ideas, so this might be the place for a trade. Nonetheless, I think this would be a winning team, even in our division, and with our damn owner spending very much money, which let's face it, he won't do anyway. 

[rurrusuno]

6 hours ago, Stanley J Makowski said:

This is a good time to add this old fool's thoughts to the above theme. I must commence by differing with nearly everything that is presented.

Let's start with a few facts as I see them:

1) The park is huge which is detrimental to power in general.

2) As stated above, power hitters are more expensive, and this runs contrary to our owner's very being.

3) Also as mentioned above, the park is conducive to seeing increased base hits from singles to triples.

4) Speed here is a definite essential on both offense and defense.

5) If defensive positioning was lacking during this past year, that reflects poorly on the coaching staff.

6) One could make a reasonable argument that several players were playing defensive positions for which they are ill suited. Again, we must look to the coaching staff as well as the manager.

Considering all of the above, can added power have a positive effect?

Rather this protagonist would advocate a nearly opposite approach:

1) First and foremost, a competent hitting coach is critical. These uppercut swings must be better controlled. The terrible toll that results from "taking" called third strikes must be addressed. The almost universal inability to be able to bunt at all should be addressed next Spring.  Many Marlin players can hit adequately with no one on base, but their performance in "scoring" situations is dismal. 

2) My goal would be to seek players with good to excellent OBP. 

3) There is speed on this team already, but it was generally underutilized. 

4) An abundance of speed can disrupt the opposing players and sometimes visibly knock them off of their own game.

 

Would all of my ideas lead to a better winning percentage?

Yes, and for one very pertinent reason. THIS TEAM WILL HAVE EXCELLENT PITCHING NEXT YEAR. It would be hoped, and should be expected, that it will take fewer runs to win a game.

After all of the above, I damn sure better have some proposals for consideration:

1) Put Edwards where he belongs at 2B.

2 Leave Fortes alone. He is a fine defensive catcher who has an excellent record of putting his bat on the ball. If he can already do that, then we come back to a competent hitting coach. He showed marked improvement during the season's second half, so build on it. Remember how critical the pitching will be, let's not muck that up with some new guy who knows nothing about them.

3) Bride seems to be an asset to the team. However, he hits more like a 3rd baseman than a 1st baseman. So put him there and get Norby far away from that bag where he certainly doesn't belong.

4) Norby has shown enough potential to be a right-hand platoon outfielder. Put him in LF along with either Conine or a player picked up in trade and let him run! But by all means, dump Stowers.

5) I read nothing of substance about little Sanoja, but to my way of thinking, he can be a critical piece to the overall puzzle. The guy has hit (a la our ballpark) wherever he has played, and he can run, run, and run some more. But where to place him? Could he play SS on a ML level, or CF for that matter. Either would make a critical difference.

6) And now for Otto Lopez. Could he play the short field? If not, out he goes to RF to platoon with Sanchez. The shortstop situation is still probably unresolved under my ideas, so this might be the place for a trade. Nonetheless, I think this would be a winning team, even in our division, and with our damn owner spending very much money, which let's face it, he won't do anyway. 

I totally agree with you. If our starting pitching staff can remain healthy for the most part, then our team ERA and runs allowed will go down significantly. I wouldn't want the team to just rely on the pitching and not focus on scoring runs, but yes, the lineup wouldn't always be pressured to score each inning if our starter still has us in the game. Having Eury Perez and Sandy Alcantara back could give us an extra 10-15 wins next season. 

I definitely want to see more stolen bases next season. Otto Lopez, Jesus Sanchez, and Xavier Edwards have all proven that they can be dangerous on the basepaths, but I believe we can get other players on the team to step it up in that category as well. 

Our power has certainly been lacking for the past few years. Jake Burger is the only player on the roster that's guaranteed to probably hit 20-30 home runs next season. 

On a side note, I wish we'd open our roof a little more often during late afternoon/night games! Do you have any thoughts on this? I remember being at games when the roof was open, and you could feel the breeze outside. 

[THOMAS JOSEPH]

Well done, young Sean! Too much information for me to digest quickly, especially for an antediluvian like me. I promise that I will chew on it and see if there's anything to add or question (I know you wait with great anticipation - LOL). Anyway, I appreciate the hard work and insights.