Why Marlins should be eyeing bounce-back candidate John Brebbia

[Louis Addeo-Weiss]

Derailed by a combination of injuries and bad luck, here's what makes Brebbia an intriguing buy-low option this offseason.

With the historically frugal Miami Marlins coming off a 100-loss season, realistic expectations need to be set regarding how much they will spend in free agency. You'll recall that last year, the Marlins waited all the way until late February to sign somebody to a guaranteed major league deal (Tim Anderson), and that was under the guise that the team might actually be competitive.

Now clearly amid a rebuild, spending will only be along the margins. Think of short-term reclamation projects (as previously covered here, here and here) capable of performing well enough to parlay into the potential acquisition of prospects at the trade deadline who could prove cogs in the team’s future.

Should the Marlins spend any money this offseason, a good place to start would be the bullpen. 

On the surface, the Marlins bullpen was among the club’s few strengths, ranking second in fWAR (7.0) and fourth in FIP (3.60).  This comes with a couple of caveats, though.

Of the 652 ⅓ innings thrown by Marlins relievers in 2024, 76 were authored by Tanner Scott and A.J. Puk, who combined to post a 1.54 ERA before being dealt at the deadline. Puk would be dealt to Arizona on July 25, with Scott following suit to San Diego five days later. Without the pair’s contributions, Miami’s 4.50 bullpen ERA would have ranked 27th of 30 teams. Even with several productive arms being retained, there is a lot of volatility in year-to-year bullpen performance, particularly when you're leaning on pitchers with limited MLB track records.

This is where a name like John Brebbia enters the picture.

Among the 136 relievers to throw 90 innings since the start of 2023, Brebbia’s 5.09 ERA and 1.6 HR/9 rank 132nd and 133rd, respectively. He spent most of this past season with the abysmal Chicago White Sox. His slider ranked as the second-worst pitch in baseball according to Baseball Savant’s Run Value statistic (-18 RV). Against that pitch, the league hit like Bobby Witt Jr., batting .322 with a .587 slugging percentage.

The previous two years have also seen Brebbia plagued by the injury bug, missing time with a right lat strain in 2023 before sustaining an injury to his right calf in 2024. 

Enough to suggest a pass on services, right?

We’ll give Brebbia the benefit of the doubt here and put more stock in the body of work he put forth at the outset of his career. He was one of just 26 relievers with at least 250 innings pitched and a 120 ERA+ or better from 2017-2022. There is enough in the right-hander’s recent peripherals to suggest a healthy Brebbia could return to effective status in 2025. 

For starters, Brebbia’s 4.28 FIP looks much better than his 5.09 ERA. He struck out 28.3% of hitters during that span. The Marlins bullpen, for context, struck out 23.5% (and that was buoyed by the since-departed Scott and Puk).

Even in what was a down 2024, Brebbia registered a 32% chase rate, his highest such mark since his rookie year of 2017 in St. Louis.

The x-factor in a potential Brebbia resurgence is the status of his slider mentioned above. In 2023, the league slugged .511 with a 42.9% hard-hit rate and 91.2 mph average exit velocity against it. When completely imploding in 2024, Brebbia did a better job managing quality of contact, evidenced by the league posting a 30.2% hard-hit rate and 87.8 mph average exit velocity despite a .421 wOBA and whiff rate that held constant year-over-year (25.6% vs. 25.5%). We can reasonably forecast some positive regression.

Beyond the statistical narrative of it all comes with it a familiarity factor. Brebbia pitched under Gabe Kapler in San Francisco from 2021-2023. Kapler, then manager of the Giants, currently serves as Miami's assistant general manager. 

 

What Would it Cost? 

Brebbia’s recent struggles and injury history have affected what his services will fetch, so much so that even the reluctant-to-spend Marlins would have to entertain the idea.

A baseline comparison could be the 1-year/$2.25M deal that former Marlin Dylan Floro received from the Washington Nationals this past season. Between 2017-2022, Brebbia and Floro had an almost Parent Trap-like performance before falling victim to some bad FIP luck between 2023-2024. 

Set to turn 35 next May, Brebbia’s advanced age by big league standards make it urgent for him to find solutions to his run prevention woes in order to extend his career. Even if going to a team without playoff aspirations, he has all the motivation he needs right there. The uptick in swing-and-miss and ample experience in high-leverage situations should still net him a major league deal for 2025.

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[THOMAS JOSEPH]

Not an unreasonable view, even if uninspiring and cheap enough to take a chance on. 

[BMK3]

Talking about John Brebbia and not being able to talk about Juan Soto is not a good thing.

 

[One Regend]

2 hours ago, BMK3 said:

Talking about John Brebbia and not being able to talk about Juan Soto is not a good thing.

 

Juan Soto alone isn't going to make this team good. We'd need like Juan Soto and like 5-6 other bats... and like 3 starting pitchers... and like 5 bullpen arms. We're so far from being competitive that just one elite bat isn't going to do anything for us. If the Marlins went and got Juan Soto, we'd be like the 2001-2003 Texas Rangers again. One GOATed player and 22 other flotsams and jetsams.

[BMK3]

I absolutely agree.  My point is we need new ownership so we can look a little higher.  I do not want Juan Soto, although I do think we can be competitive with reasonable upgrades.  The winter can be fun if you have some hope of being somewhat financially competitive.