The Marlins Minor League Player of the Year award curse

[Ely Sussman]

None of the recent recipients of the organization's highest position player prospect honor have gone on to be successful at the major league level.

With few exceptions, the journey from starting a professional baseball career to reaching the major league level is a multi-year grind. There are slumps, injuries and other types of adversity along the way.

The Miami Marlins, just like every other MLB organization, take steps to keep their players motivated. That includes distributing annual organizational awards, the most prestigious of those being the Player of the Year award, bestowed upon the most productive position player in their farm system.

However, fans must be warned not to put much stock in this accolade. For the better part of a decade, earning Marlins Player of the Year has consistently been a jinx rather than a reward. The last Player of the Year to even turn into an average major leaguer was Brian Anderson (2016). The combined production of every recipient since then has been significantly below replacement level.

What's gone wrong for these former MiLB standouts?

 

James Nelson, 2017

MLB experience: none

Current team: Caliente de Durango (MEX)

Nelson was put in a tough spot here. The farm system was depleted at the time and somebody had to win the award, so the Marlins went with the former 15th-round draft pick who posted a shiny .309 batting average in Low-A.

Nelson got only a brief taste of Double-A before washing out of affiliated ball. He dominated independent leagues in 2022 and 2023, then spent last season as the starting third baseman of a Mexican League club with whom he slashed .297/.425/.459 in 85 games.

His Marlins tenure feels like an eternity ago, yet Nelson is somehow just 27 years old.

 

Austin Dean, 2018

MLB experience: five seasons (-0.9 fWAR in 126 G)

Current team: LG Twins (KBO)

Dean was on the opposite end of his development timeline. He was a big leaguer by the time the award was presented to him (as was the case with a couple of the other names below).

It's clearing an extremely low bar, but Dean has had the most successful career of any recent winner. After posting a 81 wRC+ in MLB, he made the move to the Korea Baseball Organization and became a star over there with 55 home runs over the last two seasons. He'll be returning to the KBO in 2025 on a $1.7 million contract.

 

Isan Díaz, 2019

MLB experience: four seasons (-3.1 fWAR in 153 G)

Current team: free agent

Even more so than usual, the Pacific Coast League was a hitter's paradise in 2019. Díaz took full advantage of that, slashing .305/.395/.578 with 26 homers to force his way to Miami in August. He was already being taken seriously as a prospect entering the season, but this apparent breakout naturally inflated expectations.

Díaz was responsible for arguably the most memorable moment of that non-competitive Marlins season. He hit his first MLB homer off of NL Cy Young award winner Jacob deGrom. His family members were being interviewed on the club's local television broadcast as it happened and his father's reaction was especially exuberant.

Díaz was given a long leash to reach his potential with the Marlins. Aside from showing a decent eye at the plate, he brought nothing to the table.

Miami moved on from him early in the 2022 season. Díaz very briefly returned to The Show with the San Francisco Giants and Detroit Tigers in 2023. The Puerto Rican infielder played winter ball during the 2024-25 offseason and mashed in the Caribbean Series, but it's unclear where his career goes from here.

 

Peyton Burdick, 2021

MLB experience: two seasons (-0.5 fWAR in 46 G)

Current team: free agent

I'm fairly confident that no Marlins Minor League Player of the Year has ever had a batting average lower than Burdick did in 2021 (.224 BA). To his credit, Burdick led the organization in walks and opened some eyes with his center field defense. Still, there was always a significant risk that he'd whiff too much to stick in the majors.

Burdick received about a month of steady playing time with the Marlins in 2022, then had another cup of coffee with them in May 2023, both times replacing an injured Avisaíl García. Unfortunately, Burdick did not distinguish himself as a meaningful upgrade over García, striking out at a 38.1% rate.

 

Yiddi Cappe, 2022

MLB experience: none

Current team: Marlins

Cappe was another unconventional award winner. A $3.5 million signing the year before, he spent half of the 2022 season in rookie ball (139 wRC+) and totaled only 67 games played.

While it's unwise to completely write off a player at age 22, you would be hard-pressed to find any eventual major leaguers who struggled so much against High-A pitching over a such a long period (.222/.268/.302 slash line in 803 plate appearances). Cappe is not ranked on our Fish On First Top 30 list, nor did he receive consideration for an honorable mention spot.

 

Troy Johnston, 2023

MLB experience: none

Current team: Marlins

A high-quality hitter dating back to the beginning of his pro career in 2019, Johnston reach new heights in 2023. He raked at both Double-A (.296/.396/.567) and Triple-A (.323/.403/.520) while leading all of Minor League Baseball with 116 runs batted in. The first baseman even stole 24 bases with excellent efficiency (92.3 SB%).

It's hard to believe that a player who performed like that in the upper minors is still awaiting his first call-up. Not only did the Marlins decline to promote him during their 2023 postseason push—they left him unprotected for the subsequent Rule 5 Draft, where none of the other teams deemed him worthy of a selection in the draft's major league phase. Johnston regressed in every statistical category in 2024, though his 132 hits paced all Marlins minor leaguers with the exception of that year's award winner.

Johnston has been a non-roster invitee at three consecutive Marlins spring trainings. During the 2025 edition, he auditioned as an outfielder after mainly being developed at first base in recent years. Alas, he was never in serious contention for an Opening Day roster spot.

Johnston can elect minor league free agency next offseason.

 

Javier Sanoja, 2024

MLB experience: one season (-0.2 fWAR in 15 G)

Current team: Marlins

Sanoja's player profile is fascinating. He had the lowest strikeout rate among qualified hitters at any full-season minor league level and he did it while being younger than practically every pitcher he faced (turned 22 in September). The Marlins have embraced his willingness to play several positions—he split reps between second base, shortstop and center field during his award-winning MiLB campaign and even started twice in left field following his big league debut.

Thanks to his defensive versatility and youth, Sanoja is a candidate to break the Marlins' Player of the Year curse by having a lengthy MLB career. The crucial question is whether the quality of his contact will be good enough to merit an everyday role at some point.

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[rurrusuno]

Only a few names ring a bell to me. The road to the show is indeed difficult and these awards obviously don't guarantee anything. Some of the biggest MLB stars today weren't even that well known as they were grinding their way through the minors.

[rurrusuno]

Only a few names ring a bell to me. The road to the show is indeed difficult and these awards obviously don't guarantee anything. Some of the biggest MLB stars today weren't even that well known as they were grinding their way through the minors.

[Hans Herrera]

With most of the awards going to AAA players, one can think of why the transition between this level and the Majors has been so troublesome for players. Let's not forget the best defensive 1B on the planet, Lewin Díaz, who did not win this award but could have perfectly earned it in 2021 or 22.

Is it maybe the coaching? Or was (is) the farm system so bad the last 5 years that they cannot produce a single decent position player?

[1993 fan from start]

i remember them all . but still trying to remember when I had high hope for any of the above names.   the closes if any would be Troy Johnston .  could  IT  be AWARD going to wrong people also?