Nobody else in the majors is pitching like Valente Bellozo

[Ely Sussman]

Through five career starts, Bellozo has been a fantastic addition to the Marlins rotation. Tuesday was his most effective outing yet as the Fish became the first team all season to shut out the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.

Valente Bellozo is in the Miami Marlins rotation by necessity. He did not "earn" his spot in a conventional way, making just 13 inconsistent appearances for Double-A Pensacola and Triple-A Jacksonville this season. 

Well, the soft-tossing right-hander who wasn't even supposed to be here is poised to stay here for the foreseeable future. Bellozo is performing far better against major league opponents than he did in the upper minors. On Tuesday, his seven innings pitched matched the longest outing of his professional career at any level, and he did it while holding the Philadelphia Phillies scoreless at Citizens Bank where they had been averaging 5.27 runs per game in 2024. He has allowed only seven total runs through five starts in The Show.

"It's refreshing to see a young guy come up who's super excited to be here," manager Skip Schumaker said postgame. "He's taking his shot and making the most of it."

Bellozo lowered his ERA to 2.28, which is the ninth-best mark in Marlins history for a pitcher's first five starts with the club. However, the company he's keeping near the top of the list is a reminder of how misleading such a small sample size can be.

Entering Tuesday, Bellozo ranked in the fifth percentile of MLB pitchers with an average fastball velocity of 90.1 mph. He averaged merely 89.5 mph vs. the Phillies. None of that pitch's other characteristics are remarkable, either. Bellozo's four-seam fastball has a 56 Stuff+ where 100 represents average—only Darren McCaughan (50) has a lower grade among Marlins pitchers this season.

And yet, it is easily his most-used weapon. The four-seamer has been practically unhittable so far, with opponents going 5-for-38 (.132 BA) against it.

As illustrated beautifully in this latest start, Bellozo likes to throw his four-seamer up in the zone to right-handed batters and off the outside corner. Being sharp with his location is helping him excel far beyond what the raw quality of his stuff would tell you to expect. 

The trajectory of the batted balls against Bellozo make him unique. So far in his young career, he's only inducing ground balls 22.8% of the time—that is barely half the MLB average! No qualified MLB starters are below 30% this season. The only precedent for a qualified starter with a GB% lower than Bellozo's during the entire Sports Info Solutions era (since 2002) is 2014 Chris Young. That's a very, very bad sign...right?

All of the ERA estimators agree that Bellozo is due for heavy regression because eventually, more of these fly balls will fly over the wall for home runs. There are a lot of opportunities for hitters to do damage considering his pedestrian 21.1% strikeout rate. So far, he has allowed only two homers.

To Bellozo's credit, there is something about him that is causing hitters to get too far underneath the ball. It's not only his fastball: the average launch angle is at least 21 degrees against four different pitches in his arsenal (his curveball being the exception). He ranks among baseball's leaders in infield fly ball percentage. There is seemingly some tangible skill involved with this as Bellozo also led the Southern League (min. 30 IP) with a 38.2 IFFB%. Even though it doesn't have the same sex appeal, a pop-up is almost always an unproductive out and therefore just as valuable as a strikeout.

Referring again to the table above, Bellozo isn't the only overlooked, unorthodox pitcher to stymy big leaguers at the start of his career. The longer his success sustains, the more effort opponents will put into cracking the code.

Nonetheless, the Marlins must be thrilled to see him go three full times through one of the world's most talented lineups and dominate.

 

More takeaways from this game

- Jake Burger did it again, homering for the fourth consecutive game and the 23rd time overall this season.

- Vidal Bruján made a great running catch in foul territory to end the third inning, but suffered a right shoulder AC joint sprain, according to the Marlins. X-rays were negative, though I suspect that will require a stint on the injured list. Bruján was only playing on a part-time basis, so don't get your hopes up for a Connor Norby promotion (he'll wait until there is a clear path to everyday reps). It is much more likely that Forrest Wall or Tristan Gray comes up in a corresponding move, whether that be on Wednesday or on Friday following the next off-day.

- Xavier Edwards created an insurance run in the top of the seventh. He singled, stole second base, then swiped third on the very next pitch, scoring on an errant throw by J.T. Realmuto. Edwards has been successful on 15 straight stolen base attempts over his last 21 games.

- Jesús Sánchez established a new career high with his 15th home run of the season, a solo shot off of Carlos Estévez in the ninth inning.

- Alec Bohm drew a walk in the fourth inning to extend his on-base streak to 30 games.

 

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Wednesday is the finale of this two-game series. Edward Cabrera, who has been on a Bellozo-like hot streak himself in recent weeks, gets the starting nod. Right-hander Tyler Phillips makes his sixth career start for the Phillies. It'll be his first time ever pitching against the Marlins. First pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET.

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[One Regend]

If there's one thing the Marlins are good at, no matter how good or bad their team is, it's to find pitchers out of complete nowhere who perform like superstars. There always seems to be one arm who was a complete nobody at the beginning of the season that performs like superman when given the playing time. This happens nearly every year. It's basically a Marlins tradition at this point.

This year, it's Valente Bellozo. He's impressing me at every stop of the way. For a 24 year old kid who wasn't really blowing hitters away in AAA, he's seemed to have figured it out at the Major League level. I don't know what the major league coaching staff did to him, but they seemed to unlocked Bellozo's ability to take his game to a whole new level.

7 scoreless against one of the best offenses in baseball is nothing you can shift your eyes at. That's the statement start that'll get my attention in a season that hasn't gotten much of it. I have to wonder if he can maintain this level of play over a full season next year. My guess is with his low velo, his pitch usage, and his arsenal, I very much doubt his chances to do so. I'm very welcome to him proving me wrong, though.

[THOMAS JOSEPH]

I must admit to an instant connection to Bellozo. He appears to be genuinely thankful and thoroughly enjoying the MLB experience. To boot, he recalls the pitching craftsmanship that goes beyond the obligatory elbow-destroying velocity in today's game. Wasn't the soft contact inducement inning after inning just an absolute pleasure to watch? All those soft pop-ups. The few hits were spaced out and the scoring opportunities for the Phillies were lithely maneuvered. So, while we await the "league catching on to him," or anything similar, let's enjoy this fresh air in baseball we have on our team. 

[Ely Sussman]

11 hours ago, One Regend said:

I have to wonder if he can maintain this level of play over a full season next year. My guess is with his low velo, his pitch usage, and his arsenal, I very much doubt his chances to do so. I'm very welcome to him proving me wrong, though.

I would feel more hopeful if Bellozo had a recent track record of missing barrels, something innate about his delivery that tricked hitters into swinging at the wrong spot. Although he had outstanding home run prevention in the low minors, that didn't translate to High-A or above. Opponents slugged plenty against him even when encountering him for the first time.

At least when you throw strikes, you give yourself a chance to get quick outs. There's value in that and I won't take it for granted.