At All-Star break, here's how 2024 Marlins compare to 1998 Marlins

Ely Sussman · July 17, 2024

More than halfway through the MLB regular season, this group is legitimately challenging for the title of worst team in Marlins history.

The 1998 Marlins season was uniquely miserable. Before the champagne could dry following the franchise's first World Series title celebration, most of the key contributors vanished via free agency or trade in a financially motivated fire sale. From the get-go, there wasn't the faintest possibility of contending for a postseason berth despite having accomplished so much the year before.

A bevy of embarrassing Marlins records that have stood for more than a quarter-century are in peril of changing hands. I wrote about the trajectory of the 2024 Fish after their abysmal April performance. They followed that up with a brief stretch of competent play, but beset by starting pitching injuries and ineffective hitters, they've fallen into another extended rut.

The Marlins posted a 33-63 record prior to the All-Star break, accumulating the most first-half losses in franchise history. If they keep this up throughout the remaining 2.5 months, they'll finish with similar totals to the '98 squad.

1998 Marlins: 54-108 record, minus-256 run differential

2024 Marlins: on pace for 56-106 record, minus-257 run differential

Offensively, the 2024 Marlins have no answer for 1998 Cliff Floyd. He was a very rich man's version of Jazz Chisholm Jr., entering that year's All-Star break with 14 home runs and 17 stolen bases while slashing .278/.355/.491 (122 wRC+). He would wind up playing in 153 of 162 Marlins games, whereas Chisholm is increasingly likely to be traded by the end of July.

Even with Jazz, the current Marlins are far and away Major League Baseball's least-patient team. Their hitters have only 205 walks; in 1998, they had 316 walks before the break while playing nine fewer games! The front office has already cut bait with several undisciplined veterans—Tim Anderson, Avisaíl García and Christian Bethancourt—but they're still in danger of posting the lowest walk rate that any Marlins team ever has.

Back at the start of May, I was optimistic that starting pitching quality would distinguish 2024 from 1998. "If we are to conservatively pencil in Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Max Meyer for 45 more combined starts between now and season's end, there will be meaningful improvement," I wrote.

Well, that conservative estimate is mathematically impossible at this point. Luzardo is sidelined again with an injury more severe than his original one. Ditto for Garrett. I was naive regarding Meyer—he's finally on the cusp of being recalled, but the Marlins waited more than half a season in the interest of service time manipulation. The fill-ins for them have been roughly replacement-level. Just like in 1998, these arms own the National League's second-worst ERA at the break.

The aforementioned rotation absences have left closer Tanner Scott as Miami's most valuable pitcher by default. Here's a depressing/fascinating 2024 stat: Scott has twice as many wins this season (six) as any other Marlin. With the All-Star and pending free agent certain to change teams prior to the deadline, he's running out of opportunities to add to that. Different era of pitcher usage, I know, but at least the 1998 Fish had two guys reach double digits (11 wins for Brian Meadows and 10 wins for Liván Hernández).

In large part due to Scott, the current Marlins are 16-13 in one-run games. Presumably, A.J. Puk is next in line for save opportunities...unless he gets traded as well. The strength of this team is its bullpen, but that could change drastically two weeks from now.

It will take some combination of rookie surprises and strong August/September finishes from injured starters Luzardo, Garrett and Ryan Weathers to edge out the 1998 Marlins in the standings.

Remaining Marlins schedule

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