Bounce-back candidate Tim Anderson showing no signs of bouncing back

[Ely Sussman]

Anderson's offensive production has somehow been even worse than it was in 2023 and he's making less contact than ever before.

The Miami Marlins needed to shake things up at shortstop. You cannot fault them for trying to. They were incredibly fortunate to experience so much team success in 2023 with the triumvirate of Joey Wendle, Jon Berti and Garrett Hampson, who combined for replacement-level production at the position.

The Marlins reallocated the $5M-ish that Berti and Hampson were due to make this season toward free agent Tim Anderson.

Classic "buy low" scenario. An excellent hitter in the not-too-distant past, Anderson's value had cratered. From June-August 2022—in between injured list stints—Anderson slashed .249/.287/.290 (65 wRC+) with no home runs. It was more of the same throughout the 2023 campaign, and the underlying data (per Baseball Savant) was just as discouraging as his surface-level numbers:

That being said, the 2023-24 offseason did not present the Marlins with any truly enticing alternatives. The MLB free agent class was bereft of reliable, well-rounded shortstops. They reportedly pursued Isiah Kiner-Falefa in earnest, but relented when his camp insisted on two guaranteed years. The Toronto Blue Jays won the bidding by paying him $15M (tripled what Anderson would ultimately cost).

"Everything that we've heard about Tim Anderson, he sounds like a really great guy, honestly," Peter Bendix said once the signing was finalized.. "He sounds like a really good player. He sounds like somebody who a change of scenery is going to help, a little bit of a reset is going to help...We did extensive research into his health and his conditions, into what we expect from him this year. I do think that he is very likely to have a much better season this year."

Whatever the Marlins saw from Anderson during spring training made them comfortable trading Berti on the eve of Opening Day. That may have been in their plans regardless considering the combination of prospects being offered and the salary-relief component, but it cleared the runway for the 30-year-old newcomer to be their everyday starter at SS. They wouldn't have done that if he was bound to fail.

Outside of brief injury (left thumb sprain) and illness absences, TA has been a constant in the Marlins lineup (starting 31 of the first 37 games). He is botching the opportunity to rejuvenate his career by continuing to deteriorate at the plate.

Anderson's OPS now begins with a "4" following an 0-for-4 effort on Monday. He's nearly a month removed from his last multi-hit game. Zero homers from him and only a couple balls that would've had a chance to clear the fence even if pulled straight down the line. Particularly in tiny samples, awfulness is usually accompanied by unluckiness, but not in this case: his actual and expected weighted on-base averages (.224 wOBA and .228 xwOBA) are almost identical. 

These are the worst hitters in the majors with a minimum of 100 plate appearances. Everybody with a sub-60 wRC+ is getting bogged down by struggles on balls in play with a BABIP below the current MLB average of .287...except for Tim Anderson. He could recover to his extraordinary career mark of a .347 BABIP and still be less effective than Marlins shortstops were last year. It's bleak.

Anderson is striking out at a 30% rate, a dramatic spike from each of his previous five seasons and on pace to be a career high. His K's are up because he is whiffing a lot more, especially when chasing pitches outside the strike zone.

The most glaring difference I see between the old TA and the current TA is how he's failing to capitalize on advantageous counts. Anderson has a lifetime .335/.436/.524 slash line when he's ahead in the count. That plummeted to .244/.383/.322 in 2023. This year, he is appallingly bad in these situations, slashing .148/.303/.185. So to be clear, when there are more balls on him than strikes, he is somehow doing worse than usual.

Let's watch a few recent examples: 

With Anderson in these 3-1 counts, he got a 95 mph fastball in the dirt, an 88 mph fastball on the outside corner and a 92 mph fastball down the dick. The results were a whiff, a weak grounder and another weak grounder.

Anderson used to be a great fastball hitter. That has gradually changed and MLB pitchers are now exploiting this new reality. They are constantly  challenging him with their best velo to get back into the count, throwing 71.2% fastballs when Anderson is ahead. Over the previous half-decade, that rate hovered in the low 60s.

Historically, these are the pitches that Anderson has been hammering. In 2024, though, he has "barreled" only one ball as defined by Statcast. What once were occasional extra-base hits are instead leading to extra outs. Anderson must recognize this pattern and adjust accordingly. 

 

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There are a few MLB teams who would have designated Anderson for assignment by now, depending on their urgency to win and fallback options at the shortstop position. There are many others who would have at least reduced his playing time.

The Marlins, however, might as well stay the course. Wins and losses have quickly become irrelevant. The only teammate who was starting to breathe down Anderson's neck was Vidal Bruján, but the departure of Luis Arraez allows Bruján to get regular reps at second base.

Anderson is physically fit and there are no lingering issues with his legs from his White Sox days. It's a matter of his approach and/or mechanics. Hopefully, the Marlins coaching staff and those close to him help him address it, otherwise his future as a major league player beyond this season is murky at best.

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[Slacker Mills]

This was the first real awakening to 1) Bendix incompetence and 2) the fact that he had nothing to do with personnel decisions before coming to Miami. Immediately after Bendix donated $5M to Anderson, the Rays signed Amed Rosario for $1.5M with about an additional 500K Incentives. Rosario currently carries a 120 OPS+, which I believe is higher than ANY Marlin.

Said it then and everyday since, Anderson was a huge mistake.

[Slacker Mills]

Otto Lopez, who can actually hit, is not getting playing time even after the Arraez trade  I would let Lopez play every day and choose his own position.

[PearsonsRBI]

This was a great read, and sadly in line with what it's been like watching TA7 this seasons. It seems his eye is off and his bat speed isn't fast enough to compensate anymore.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, PearsonsRBI said:

This was a great read, and sadly in line with what it's been like watching TA7 this seasons. It seems his eye is off and his bat speed isn't fast enough to compensate anymore.

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