The Offishial Show: Why hasn't Marlins payroll gone up entering 2024?

[Ely Sussman]

Episode #213

With the 2024 season rapidly approaching, Ely questions why the Miami Marlins aren't re-investing more of their profits into building the best possible roster.

Ely Sussman projects the Marlins' Opening Day payroll, then compares it to previous seasons and what other MLB teams are spending.

The methodology used is very similar to this projection from mid-November.

Last season, the Marlins sold 1,162,819 paid tickets to home games, by far their highest total of the Bruce Sherman ownership era. Earlier this month, they sold hundreds of thousands more while hosting the Caribbean Series at LoanDepot Park. Despite previous concerns that their lucrative local television deal could be in jeopardy due to Diamond Sports Group's bankruptcy proceedings, that situation has since calmed down (at least for the 2024 season). On top of that, they continue to be one of Major League Baseball's revenue-sharing recipients.

So...where is all of this money going?

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Projecting 2024 Marlins Opening Day payroll

• Josh Bell—$16.5M
• Avisaíl García—$12M
• Luis Arraez—$10.6M
• Sandy Alcantara—$9.3M
• Tanner Scott—$5.7M
• Jesús Luzardo—$5.5M
• Jon Berti—$3.625M
• Matt Barnes—$2.75M (buyout)
• Jazz Chisholm Jr.—$2.625M
• Johnny Cueto—$2.5M (buyout)
• Jesús Sánchez—$2.1M
• Christian Bethancourt—$2.05M
• A.J. Puk—$1.8M
• Trevor Rogers—$1.53M
• JT Chargois—$1.285M
• Nick Gordon—$900k
• Anthony Bender—$770k
• Filling active roster with 12 pre-arb players at approx. $753.3k each—$9.04M

That adds up to $90.575M. Per Cot's Contracts, that number was $92.575M entering the 2023 season.

The Oakland Athletics and Pittsburgh Pirates are spending significantly less on their projected rosters, but the Marlins could rank as low as 28th in MLB unless they make additions between now and Opening Day.

How do you feel about this? Do you think the Marlins should be required to spend at a certain level, or do you not care as long as the team is competitive?

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[Slacker Mills]

I feel badly that

1) Bell opted in and will cost so much

2) Avisail Garcia was ever signed

3) Arraez and Cooper haven't been traded to the Red Sox yet.

I really can't look at the list of free agents that have been signed around the league and say, "Wow there's a guy the Marlins should have signed."

[Ely Sussman]

4 hours ago, Slacker Mills said:

I feel badly that

1) Bell opted in and will cost so much

2) Avisail Garcia was ever signed

3) Arraez and Cooper haven't been traded to the Red Sox yet.

I really can't look at the list of free agents that have been signed around the league and say, "Wow there's a guy the Marlins should have signed."

The only multi-year deal I've really liked is Lourdes Gurriel staying with the D-backs (3/$42M). But there have been a bunch of 1-year signings that come at no risk and could cumulatively make a dramatic difference. Would be far easier to trade from the team's rotation depth if they had brought in an additional veteran like Martin Perez or Jack Flaherty. We'll see what he ultimately gets, but I'd be in favor of an Adam Duvall reunion. Then, take a flier on Tim Anderson.

[Slacker Mills]

7 hours ago, Ely Sussman said:

The only multi-year deal I've really liked is Lourdes Gurriel staying with the D-backs (3/$42M). But there have been a bunch of 1-year signings that come at no risk and could cumulatively make a dramatic difference. Would be far easier to trade from the team's rotation depth if they had brought in an additional veteran like Martin Perez or Jack Flaherty. We'll see what he ultimately gets, but I'd be in favor of an Adam Duvall reunion. Then, take a flier on Tim Anderson.

Is Tim Anderson a better defensive SS than Jazz??

[Slacker Mills]

Ely! Flaherty or Perez? For a 5 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, Flaherty got $14M! Perez got $8M for not much better. George Soriano is better than those guys.

[Chad Turner]

I think there should be a cap and a floor.  The cap should work similar to the NBA.  The floor should be $100mm and go up $10mm/yr for 5 years. Teams could violate the floor for 1 year (full rebuild).  The closer the ceiling and floor is, the better the product.  Look how successful the NFL is with parity.  When will MLB learn?