Possible Trade Ideas: Maikel Garcia

Sean McCormack · February 6, 2024

Throughout this offseason, there has been much talk about the possibility of a new shortstop for this season. With the rumors at last season's deadline of the Marlins considering moving Jake Eder for Maikel Garcia, before the Marlins decided to move Eder for Jake Burger in a deal that is looking pretty good so far. And with rumors during the winter meetings in December that the Marlins and Royals were again considering a pitcher and hitter swap, between Jesus Luzardo and first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino. I thought why not return to the Royals and snag a potential future 3rd baseman or shortstop of the future.

Maikel Garcia (23) 3B/SS is a former top prospect in the Royals org who has seemed always to be a bit overlooked with the young strong patch of Royals hitters that have debuted in the past couple of years. I believe behind Bobby Witt Jr he is the best middle infielder in their org despite playing 3rd base at the major league level, due to Bobby Witt Jr. It has been clear the Royals are looking to add even more pitching after the signings of Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Kyle Wright to add to their rotation in 2024. So the idea of them moving a young controlable infielder isn't that far-fetched.

What does Maikel Garcia do well? He hits the ball HARD. In 2023 he had a 50.6% hard-hit rate which ranked in the 93% tile in the sport. He combines this with a great approach at the plate. He only whiffs and chases at a 20.6% and 19.5% rate. This is near the top of baseball in being patient at the plate. Maikel combines this with a 2% league higher than average zone contact rate at 85% and makes a great out-of-zone contact rate of 66% compared to an MLB average of 58%. Garcia doesn't swing and miss out of the zone or in the zone and makes above-average contact rates at both. His batting profile is a lot like Marlins Superstar Luis Arraez where he spreads the ball around the field. He hits the ball to the opposite field direction more than his pull side. His dominant direction is straight up at 42%. Another important note is that he has raised his average launch angle from 3% in 2022 to 6% launch angle in 2023. This will help him going forward with hitting fewer ground balls which he saw decrease 4% from 2022 to 2023. He also has a high Line drive rate which will play well with his 110mph exit velo, which is amazing for someone his size at 6 foot 180lbs. Aside from his great hitting profile, he is an amazing defender. Garica recorded 14 OAA in 2023, between 3rd and SS this past season. 11 of which came at 3rd which ranked 2nd in all of baseball. DRS doesn't favor him as much with a total of -1 DRS for the season. Fielding stats are still a bit tricky to figure out, but Garcia has the pedigree of being a legit defender and is still young. Along with the defense he is a fast runner, he stole 23 bags last season and got caught 7 times. He has a sprint speed that ranks in the 73% tile in the MLB. The cherry on top is controllability. Maikel Garica isn't an FA until 2030 and doesn't hit ARB until 2026.

Now for the possible trade packages. With all the rumors surrounding Jesus Luzardo's name and that the Royals and Marlins had discussed between him why not include him as the centerpiece of this deal.

Trade 1: Royals get, LHP Jesus Luzardo. Marlins get, 3B/SS Maikel Garcia, OF Tyler Gentry, (8th Ranked Prospect in their Org, per-MLB.com), and RHP Matt Sauer, (22nd Ranked prospect in their Org, per-MLB.com)

Notes on trade: Royals get 3 years of Luzardo coming off his best season as a pro. Who is objectively a top 5 left-handed starter in Baseball. The Marlins get Maikel Garcia who can be our future SS or play 3rd base if we choose to move burger to 1st and sign a stop-gap SS for a season. We also get 2 prospects in this deal. Tyler Gentry is a AAA outfielder who was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2020 draft by the Royals. This past season at age 24 he had a .253/.370/.421 slash line with a 103 wRC+. Gentry has a nice K-BB ratio with a 22% K rate and a 14% walk rate while playing solid corner OF defense. He would slot in as our best OF prospect in my opinion over Victor Mesa Jr. The 2nd prospect in this deal Matt Sauer is a 25-year-old pitcher who played in double-A for the Yankees this past season. The Royals selected him in this year's Rule-5 draft meaning we would have to keep him on the 26-man roster the full year. This is okay, Sauer is definitely MLB-ready. Sauer throws a 3 pitch mix between a fastball, changeup, and slider. The fastball and slider are his 2 best pitches. The Marlins have a track record of developing pitchers and changeups, Mel Stottlemrye Jr has done a great job at helping our young starters and I see no reason why he couldn't help mold Sauer into a quality 5th option or long man out of our pen. The Yankees have also seen many pitchers nabbed by other teams in the Rule-5 draft and have a lot of respect around the industry in minor-league pitching development. Sauer needs to limit the long ball moving forward but that will be suppressed in Loan Depot Park. In AA he had a 10K/9 and 3BB/9 which leads me to believe he will translate well to the big leagues.

Trade package 2

Royals get, RHP Edward Cabrera and LHP Steven Okert. Marlins get, 3B/SS Maikel Garcia.

Notes on trade: The Royals would get probably the Marlins 2nd most likely pitcher trade candidate in Cabrera. Edward is 25 and coming off a bit of a rocky 2023 which he had major command issues. He is still nasty and has a lot of potential, if he's able to reel in the walks like Luzardo did the sky is the limit for Cabrera. The Marlins have been rumored to have looked for some swaps and this could be a perfect match. Secondly is Steven Okert who may be the odd one out of our Bullpen for lefties. Unless there is a Tanner Scott trade between the writing of this article and opening day, or an injury, I don't see Okert making the 26-man roster out of spring. He has had 3 years in Miami with 2021 and 2022 being very effective. Okert spent some time on the IL this past season and with guys like Nardi, Puk, and even Josh Simpson potentially joining this bullpen, I believe Okert is the most expendable lefty we have. He would fit into a Royals Bullpen that lacks lefties with only two and only 1 productive one in Will Smith. Okert could add some lefty juice for them with his nasty slider in 2024.

Overall, I hope to see the Marlins make a move before opening day at the 3rd Base or Shortstop position, we have starters that are of high value and need some more talent on the hitting side. Maikel Garica is the perfect blend of Hit tool, raw power, fielding ability, youth, controllability, and speed. He could be a key piece of the Marlins going forward and guy we can build around on the infield for years to come.

- Sean McCormack

Ely Sussman · February 6, 2024

I'm fully with you on this if that second package could get it done. Garcia is in that sweetspot as a hitter who could play in the majors right away, has the potential to get a lot better and shouldn't be quite as expensive to acquire as he would be if he was already playing SS.