What would it take for Brewers, Marlins to agree on Willy Adames trade?

[Ely Sussman]

Adames is an excellent fit for Miami's 2024 roster, but his pending free agent status would complicate the negotiations.

As currently constructed, the Miami Marlins are preparing to host one of MLB's saddest shortstop "competitions" this spring. Losing Joey Wendle via free agency could be seen as an addition by subtraction—he struggled to the tune of a 47 wRC+ and -0.8 fWAR in 2023. However, there isn't an apparent successor to him at this crucial position.

New president of baseball operations Peter Bendix has acquired a couple familiar faces that his former employer, the Tampa Bay Rays, considered expendable. In mid-November, Bendix signed Tristan Gray to a minor league deal after he passed through waivers without being claimed. That same week, he traded for once-heralded prospect Vidal Bruján. Since making his MLB debut on July 7, 2021, Bruján is literally THE WORST HITTER IN THE LEAGUE (min. 200 PA). There is reason for optimism that Bruján can still be an adequate role player, but "everyday shortstop" is like his 99th percentile outcome.

"If you started right now, I think [Jon] Berti's probably got the edge there," Marlins Skip Schumaker told the Marlins Radio Network last week regarding his 2024 shortstop situation. Aside from Bruján and Gray, Schumaker also name-dropped Xavier Edwards, who the Marlins thought was so unviable as a shortstop at this time a year ago, they tried converting him into an outfielder. Jacob Amaya is another in-house candidate.

Berti is among the best utility players in the sport, but he isn't cut out for everyday duty. He had to grit through an unspecified injury during the 2023 season to establish new career highs in playing time and it meant sacrificing his usual aggressiveness on the basepaths. It'll only get more physically demanding for him entering his age-34 campaign.

The Marlins must do something to upgrade at shortstop and demonstrate that they have a true ambition to return to the postseason in 2024. There just have not been many options available to them. The 2023-24 free agent class was/is completely devoid of reliable, high-ceiling shortstops. The best of the bunch is Amed Rosario. Signing Rosario would be the best course of action, in my opinion, if he is willing to settle for a one-year guarantee.

A sexy alternative has emerged on the trade market: Willy Adames of the Milwaukee Brewers.

 

I was mentioning Adames as a possibility for the Marlins in our Fish On Fish staff roundtable last month, but Thursday's trade makes it abundantly clear that his Brewers tenure is nearing its conclusion. As part of the return for ace Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee received Joey Ortiz, a major league-ready shortstop who will be under club control through the end of the decade.

The fact that Burnes is due to enter free agency next offseason and doubtful to be re-signed factored heavily into the Brewers' decision to trade him. It stands to reason that those factors apply in Adames' case as well.

Adames and the Brewers settled at a $12.25M salary for the upcoming season. That's very good value for the team if he replicates his 2023 production (.217/.310/.407, 94 wRC+, 24 HR and 3.4 fWAR in 149 G). If he simply paired his awesome defense with his career average hitting marks (.247/.320/.439, 107 wRC+), that would be the best individual shortstop season the Marlins have had in more than a decade.

Bendix and Adames spent nearly seven years together in the Rays organization. That could increase the likelihood of a trade happening, but does not mean Bendix has the willingness (or the payroll wiggle room) to extend him for seven more. With any sort of bounce back at the plate, Adames could command a Dansby Swanson-like contract (seven years, $177M) in free agency at age 29. Check out the similarities if you think I'm inflating his worth. Extending him immediately would be cheaper, but also riskier: What if 2023 was the continuation of Adames' gradual decline rather than an anomaly?

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Willy Adames trade proposal

The Corbin Burnes trade was the latest reminder that MLB teams no longer splurge on players who are entering their final year of club control, even if the player in question has an elite track record. Adames' trade value should be even lower than Burnes' at the moment. Trading Adames on his own, the Brewers would get a decent return, but not a package that really moves the needle for them long term.

Meanwhile, I don't think the Marlins are highly motivated to move significant assets and take on an eight-figure salary for somebody they could very possibly flip within the next six months if they're out of postseason contention come the trade deadline. It would pique their interest if the deal also involved a cheap, controllable player who suits their roster, though.

Marlins get: SS Willy Adames and OF Joey Wiemer

Brewers get: LHP Trevor Rogers, IF Jordan Groshans and 1B Zach Zubia 

As a rookie, Joey Wiemer showed he has a cannon for an arm and legit power against left-handed pitching (.267/.298/.517, 115 wRC+ in 121 PA). He was Milwaukee's main center fielder in 2023, but the impending arrival of Jackson Chourio would reduce his role if he stayed. The Brewers barely used him during their short-lived postseason run.

Is Wiemer going to replace Jorge Soler's bat? Not completely, no. Is he going to supplant Jazz Chisholm Jr. in center? Probably not, but he'd give the Marlins the flexibility to use Chisholm as a middle infielder when appropriate, plus he'd be a high-quality fill-in if Chisholm gets hurt (again). Wiemer has two minor league options remaining.

It is admittedly tricky to split hairs between Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera and Max Meyer as the centerpiece going to Milwaukee. Rogers has only three years of club control (Cabrera and Meyer have more), but he has the highest floor for a team that still can compete for the 2024 NL Central crown. He's coming off a fluky injury to his non-throwing arm.

I still vividly remember Rogers outdueling Corbin Burnes(!) by shoving six scoreless innings against the Brewers en route to winning April 2021 NL Rookie of the Month honors.

Jordan Groshans continues to tumble down the defensive spectrum and his lifetime .108 ISO in the minors has shown no signs of improving. That being said, the former first-round draft pick is still only 24 years old.

The 26-year-old Zach Zubia figures to begin this season at the Double-A level. He has been a consistent on-base machine (.415 OBP in 2023), albeit while facing younger competition. With Troy Johnston still in the system and Jacob Berry likely to move to first base in the future, Zubia is redundant for the Marlins.

Assuming that you're only getting one year of Adames, would you want the Marlins to make this trade?

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[Stanley J Makowski]

I'd do it in a flash, but only if Rogers is the one to go. Might sound crazy, but I'd rather have the kid they just got. Then would consider switching to one of other pitchers if necessary. I say this purely because of financial considerations. Don't think there is any way our esteemed owner will spend that kind of bucks when he has much cheaper alternatives.

[Slacker Mills]

3 hours ago, Stanley J Makowski said:

I'd do it in a flash, but only if Rogers is the one to go. Might sound crazy, but I'd rather have the kid they just got. Then would consider switching to one of other pitchers if necessary. I say this purely because of financial considerations. Don't think there is any way our esteemed owner will spend that kind of bucks when he has much cheaper alternatives.

Who is the kid they just got? Whoever the case, I am confident that none of the Marlin top seven starters get traded for any one year and out player. I expect a very good season for Rogers after speaking with him at the Fan Fest. The long layoff has allowed him to do massive lower body work.

[Stanley J Makowski]

A relatively young SS named Ortiz. But that is a pipe dream. In most concerns, I hope you are right.  However, I'm just not high on Rogers.  But can't deny that it is possible that he could become a very good pitcher again.

Mr. Mills, this new GM simply HAS to do something of significance. Even signing these nobodies can have negative connotations.  I seriously wonder if this FO could be speculating about being interested in some of these less than desirable players just to demonstrate the futility of managing anything of significance. Then they can proclaim that there was "nothing" out there so they will be forced to go with what they have. That would allow them to save millions.  In reality, there has not been a single transaction this off season that would disprove this hypothesis.

Can anyone think of any positive publicity that could influence an average Marlin fan to buy a ticket or tickets to the 2024 team? This new FO staff is in all probability unknown to all but those of us who post. There is only the success of last year and that's it.

[Ely Sussman]

16 hours ago, Stanley J Makowski said:

I'd do it in a flash, but only if Rogers is the one to go. Might sound crazy, but I'd rather have the kid they just got. Then would consider switching to one of other pitchers if necessary. I say this purely because of financial considerations. Don't think there is any way our esteemed owner will spend that kind of bucks when he has much cheaper alternatives.

Rather have Ryan Weathers over Rogers? It isn't the craziest idea. I'm still hopeful about Rogers being capable of recapturing his 2021 form as long as he's mechanically sound. I don't see as clear a path for Weathers to become a great starter. Weathers throws harder, but that doesn't necessarily translate to strikeouts nor success.

[Slacker Mills]

Baseball Trade Values gives Rogers more than double the value of Adames, so adding Weimer would basically even the deal from that perspective.

While many criticize the work of that site, one thing is consistently pretty certain: trades that actually occur line up very closely with their numbers.

I could see Rogers being moved in a deal for a longterm answer for SS like Rafaela from Boston or Noelvi Marte from the Reds but never for a one-year guy like Adames. And while Adames was a Tampa Bay guy, they elected to traded him.

[Slacker Mills]

9 hours ago, Ely Sussman said:

Rather have Ryan Weathers over Rogers? It isn't the craziest idea. I'm still hopeful about Rogers being capable of recapturing his 2021 form as long as he's mechanically sound. I don't see as clear a path for Weathers to become a great starter. Weathers throws harder, but that doesn't necessarily translate to strikeouts nor success.

Weathers over Rogers? It IS the craziest idea.

[Ely Sussman]

5 hours ago, Slacker Mills said:

Baseball Trade Values gives Rogers more than double the value of Adames, so adding Weimer would basically even the deal from that perspective.

While many criticize the work of that site, one thing is consistently pretty certain: trades that actually occur line up very closely with their numbers.

I could see Rogers being moved in a deal for a longterm answer for SS like Rafaela from Boston or Noelvi Marte from the Reds but never for a one-year guy like Adames. And while Adames was a Tampa Bay guy, they elected to traded him.

Yes, I always crosscheck trade proposal ideas with BTV before sharing them. I think they are slightly high on Rogers given that he is so far removed from getting good results vs. MLB competition. Also seems high on Groshans, whose 2023 season was discouraging on all fronts. But even in those cases, within the "margin for error."

[Slacker Mills]

21 hours ago, Ely Sussman said:

Yes, I always crosscheck trade proposal ideas with BTV before sharing them. I think they are slightly high on Rogers given that he is so far removed from getting good results vs. MLB competition. Also seems high on Groshans, whose 2023 season was discouraging on all fronts. But even in those cases, within the "margin for error."

 

21 hours ago, Ely Sussman said:

Yes, I always crosscheck trade proposal ideas with BTV before sharing them. I think they are slightly high on Rogers given that he is so far removed from getting good results vs. MLB competition. Also seems high on Groshans, whose 2023 season was discouraging on all fronts. But even in those cases, within the "margin for error."

I love the last three deals in this article! Luzardo to Reds. Red Sox or Orioles. Marlins SP Jesús Luzardo's Top 10 Landing Spots amid MLB Trade Rumors | News, Scores, Highlights, Stats, and Rumors | Bleacher Report

[One Regend]

5 hours ago, Slacker Mills said:

 

I love the last three deals in this article! Luzardo to Reds. Red Sox or Orioles. Marlins SP Jesús Luzardo's Top 10 Landing Spots amid MLB Trade Rumors | News, Scores, Highlights, Stats, and Rumors | Bleacher Report

The Orioles trade is never going to happen. They have a three-headed monster in the rotation with Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, and Kyle Bradish. Not to mention they have servicable Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells in the 4-5th slots, with John Means as a possible spot starter should any of them go down to injury. Getting Luzardo is nowhere close to being a priority now that they have acquired Corbin Burnes.