FOF Staff Roundtable: State of the Marlins entering 2024

At the dawn of a new year, Fish On First staffers were surveyed about their outlook for the Miami Marlins.

FOF staffers Louis Addeo-Weiss, Isaac Azout, Kevin Barral, Noah Berger, Alex Carver, Laura Georgia, Alex Krutchik, Daniel Rodriguez, Hector Rodriguez, Danis Sosa and Ely Sussman contributed to this roundtable. Their responses have been lightly edited.

Readers are welcome to comment below with their responses to the same five questions!

1. Aside from clinching a playoff berth, what do you consider to be the best moment of the 2023 Marlins season?

Ely Sussman: Jesús Sánchez's grand slam robbery in Seattle (June 14). This Marlins team had an extraordinary knack for delivering in high-leverage situations. His catch in that crucial moment had me in total disbelief.

Louis Addeo-Weiss: The 9th-inning Sunday comeback against the Yankees (August 13).

Noah Berger: The comeback win over the Yankees where the team just found a way to pull off a win with their backs against the wall.

Alex Carver: Jake Burger’s walk-off single on August 13. Down 7-3 going into their final at-bats in the bottom of the 9th, the Marlins scored five runs, capped by Burger’s base knock that plated the winning eighth run. Miami’s other notable recent acquisition, Josh Bell, also reached base and plated two runs in the inning, giving Marlins fans fairly instant gratification for what proved to become a very effective trade deadline for Kim Ng and company. The win gave the Marlins the series victory against their 2003 World Series opponent, the Yankees, in front of a huge crowd, making it arguably the most memorable of Miami’s many come-from-behind wins of the season.

Daniel Rodriguez: Jake Burger Yankees walk-off.

Alex Krutchik: The run that Josh Bell went on when he arrived in Miami.

Isaac Azout: The Marlins' victory on August 2 over Philadelphia. It was the debut of Miami's lengthened lineup featuring Josh Bell and Jake Burger, and the Fish won in 12 innings. They may have gotten lucky with a Trea Turner error in the 12th, but it still counts!

Kevin Barral: The comeback win against the Yankees certainly has to be at the top. That win began to give me a feeling that this team was legit.

Hector Rodriguez: Luis Arraez’s chase for .400.

Laura Georgia: Acquisition of Bell/Burger—offensive spark plugs when the Marlins needed it!

Danis Sosa: Sweeping the Braves in September, especially the Saturday game where they came back from getting hit hard to winning 11-5 and then blowing them out Sunday 16-2.

2. Which "forgotten" Marlins player who dealt with struggles and/or injuries in 2023 are you most excited about moving forward?

Ely: Several young pitchers fall into this category, but I'm intrigued by the range of possible Max Meyer outcomes. There is a universe where he puts up Eury Pérez-esque rookie numbers; there's another where he doesn't trust his non-slider offerings enough to succeed as a starter. Meyer was carving up Triple-A opponents when he was last fully healthy and I'm optimistic that some of that will translate to the highest level.

Noah: I wouldn't really classify him as "forgotten," but I am excited to see how Trevor Rogers bounces back from his struggles with not just injuries, but his confidence.

Carver: Max Meyer. If the Marlins, who will be without their Cy Young-winning ace, are going to be competitive again in 2024, they will need arms to step up to fill that void. Leading up to his big league call-up in 2022, Meyer was a top prospect who used a filthy slider and mid-90s heat to mow through minor league competition all the way through the AAA level. After getting the call, Meyer made just two starts before notably going down with an injury that required Tommy John surgery. According to Christina DeNicola of MLB.com, Meyer has since returned to throwing regularly and is on schedule to be ready for spring training. How will he look after surgery? Will he be on any kind of innings limit? Can he continue to develop his third pitch changeup and stick as a starter or is he a better fit for the bullpen long term? Meyer is capable and self-assured to answer those inquiries favorably. If he does, the Marlins will be a much better squad in 2024 and beyond.

Daniel: Max Meyer.

Krutchik: Trevor Rogers. We’ve seen what he looks like when everything clicks. And I’m excited to see what that looks like over 20-30 starts

Isaac: Trevor Rogers. He is going to come back and be the best #3 starter in the league.

Kevin: Trevor Rogers seemed like he was finally back on track right before going out with his first initial injury against the San Francisco Giants. He is going to be a big piece for Miami this upcoming season, especially with the loss on Sandy.

Hector: Max Meyer.

Laura: Forgotten might be a stretch, but I'm going to go with Trevor Rogers. His foundational season (2021) was a great rebound from the struggles of the COVID-shortened 2020 season. It would also be great timing to see him employ the same kind of turn around and have success in 2024. Fingers crossed for a healthy spring.

Danis: I’m excited about a healthy Max Meyer trying to pick up where he left off in 2022 before Tommy John.

3. If the Marlins sign only one player this offseason to a long-term extension (4+ years), who should it be?

Ely: Luis Arraez. He is the ultimate floor-raiser and tone-setter. He genuinely wants to stay with the Marlins, but if an extension doesn't get done now, it will become much more difficult/expensive to convince him to settle when free agency awaits him after the 2025 season.

Louis: Luis Arraez—5-yr/$87.5M ($20M club option for 2029).

Noah: Jesús Luzardo, with Luis Arraez being equally, if not more, important.

Carver: Eury Pérez. In recent years, the Marlins were known as arguably the best system in baseball for finding and developing young arms. The poster child for that reputation is the "Baby Goat," Pérez. An international signing at age 16, the 6’8” righty flew through the Marlins system in just three years and became the youngest player to toe the rubber for the Miami franchise last season. In 91 ⅓ innings, the enigmatic Pérez showed off amazing potential by holding down a 3.15 ERA and by striking out 108 batters while walking just 31. The Marlins were very cautious with Pérez's transition to the big leagues, placing him on an innings limit, but that restriction will undoubtedly be loosened in 2024. Still just 20 years old, Perez simply has one of the most advanced skillsets ever seen in the history of this franchise. Needing to retain big league-ready pitching and build their pitching core back up, the Marlins have the opportunity to do so around close friends Pérez and Alcantara. Although Pérez is still not even arbitration eligible until 2027, he will only become more expensive as days and years wear on. Proactively getting Pérez under contract for the long term right now would be a viable move for Bendix & Co. from multiple standpoints including business, on-field, and PR between Pérez and his representation.

Daniel: Eury Pérez.

Krutchik: Luis Arraez. As great as Jesús Luzardo and Eury Pérez are, the Marlins haven’t shown they can develop a bat. So they should hold onto Arraez as tightly as they can.

Isaac: Luis Arraez. I would say Eury, but they have him for another five years. Arraez is more time-sensitive to get done. Worried he might fall out of Miami's price range when he wins his third consecutive batting title.

Kevin: As much as I want to say Eury Pérez, I feel like it has to be Luis Arraez. You need to lock up your best hitter and he has said that he would like to stay here in Miami.

Hector: Luis Arraez.

Laura: Luis Arraez. For my money, this is a no-brainer.

Danis: Just going by talent and ignoring his injury history, Jazz. Arraez would be my 2nd pick.

4. What's the biggest weakness that the Marlins still need to address between now and Opening Day?

Ely: Their biggest weakness for 2024 and beyond is the shortstop position. A carousel of Jon Berti, Vidal Bruján, Xavier Edwards and Jacob Amaya would be unacceptable. Unfortunately, this MLB free agent class doesn't have satisfactory solutions there and none of the teams with controllable, solid-quality shortstops seem eager to shop them. I would attempt to trade for the Brewers' Willy Adames and immediately extend him—six years, $144M with an opt-out after the third year—but I highly doubt Bruce Sherman would be on board with that kind of expenditure. Due to the Marlins' combination of frugality and inadequate player development, they're stuck.

Louis: Replacing the 36 home runs Jorge Soler hit in 2023.

Noah: As much as I love Jon Berti and Nick Fortes, it's glaringly obvious that the Marlins need to address the shortstop and catcher positions. I'm not worried so much about the DH position because that can very easily be a revolving position to give guys rest at other positions.

Carver: Shortstop. In the current state, the Marlins’ starting shortstop is likely Jon Berti backed up by Xavier Edwards. Berti, while a fine super utility, is not an everyday player. Edwards is athletic enough to fake it at the position and made a solid impression leading to his big league call last season, but he is far better served at second base. Also, the switch-hitter still has a bit to prove offensively, particularly in the department of succeeding against righties and consistency of plus contact. Putting the extra pressure of a fairly unfamiliar position on him for the course of a full season is probably not the best route to go with his development. Without any other MLB ready-shortstops available in the minors right now, this is a must-address position for 2024.

Daniel: Starting pitching, shortstop, not wanting to spend money.

Krutchik: Shortstop. Specifically, a shortstop that can hit above .200.

Isaac: Where to start (kidding). Shortstop without a doubt.

Kevin: Shortstop. With what the Marlins have right now, that just simply isn’t enough. Even if it is a below-league-average hitter, you can’t rely on a platoon of Jon Berti and Xavier Edwards to be an everyday shortstop.

Hector: Catcher.

Laura: Consistent offense that's still flexible enough for some creative lineups when that's called for. And let's give newly promoted (hitting coach) John Mabry a hefty workload.

Danis: At this point, catcher with shortstop a close 2nd.

5. What would the Marlins' record be in 2024 using their current roster?

Ely: Similar run production as 2023, similar run prevention as 2023, just not the same clutch performance as 2023, plus a high probability of trading away veterans at the deadline. 74-88.

Louis: Regression to the mean of what their 2023 run differential suggested: 72-76 wins.

Noah: 83-79.

Carver: Still with holes at catcher and shortstop, the departure of a 40+ home run hitter, the absence of Sandy, some question marks on the defensive side of the ball, and with a thinner minor league system, if the club does nothing else for the MLB team, 2024 will be a transitionary year. If the Marlins want to re-write their identity by building back up their system, it will come at the cost of at least one losing season at the big league level. If that is the direction Bendix and his four AGMs decide to go, the Marlins will go 70-92 this coming season.

Daniel: 75-87.

Krutchik: 73-89.

Isaac: 70-92.

Kevin: 72-90.

Hector: 75-87.

Laura: 78-84 (.481 W-L%). Prove me wrong, Fish!

Danis: I say 75-87. You have a hole in right field between García and Sánchez. No real upgrade at catcher, undecided at short. I’m excited about seeing Max Meyer potentially crack the rotation, but he is coming off Tommy John, and outside of Luzardo, how are Cabrera and Rogers going to bounce back?

Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images