Jump to content
Fish On First
  • Create Account

Yet another Offseason Blueprint


Marlins Video

One week ago, Ely started this fun exercise where everyone can see what the wish list looks like for the Marlins this offseason, and I promised my own version of it. Last week, I was away on holiday and didn't have the time to write it down. During the week, many roster moves happened, the most commented - and probably unpopular - was Troy Johnston claimed off waivers by the Rockies. Yesterday, I found that M.J.S. posted his own Blueprint. Now it's my turn, and once again, I do this with my wishes, but always hand in hand with what I think is realistic, both when it comes to trade proposals and budget spending.

40-man roster crunch:
For the most part, this already happened. But let's recap the roster moves:

Roster Transactions:
- The Baltimore Orioles claimed RHP George Soriano off waivers from the Miami Marlins. The Colorado Rockies claimed 1B/OF Troy Johnston off waivers from the Miami Marlins.
- RHP Zach Brzykcy was claimed off waivers from the Washington Nationals.
- RHP Christian Roa, 2B Jack Winkler, RHP Tyler Zuber, RHP Jesús Tinoco, C Brian Navarreto, RHP Valente Bellozo, and RHP Freddy Tarnok were outrighted to Jacksonville. All of them elected free agency and can now sign with any club.
- Miami Marlins activated RHP Max Meyer, LHP Andrew Nardi, RHP Anthony Bender, and LHP Braxton Garrett from the 60-day injured list.

The 40-man roster as of today, Monday, 10th Nov 2025:
Pitchers:
Alcántara, Bachar, Bender, Brzykcy, Cabrera, Faucher, Fulton, Garrett, Gibson, Gusto, Henríquez, Junk, Mazur, Meyer, Nardi, Pérez, Petersen, Phillips, Simpson, Weathers.
Position Players:

Hicks, Ramírez, Acosta, De Los Santos, Edwards, López, Norby, Pauley, Sanoja, Serna, Wagaman, Conine, Hernández, Marsee, Mesa Jr., Myers, Stowers, Wiemer.

That's 38 players. The next important date for the Marlins' roster is the 21st of November, which is the Non-tender deadline. This one is tricky because of health concerns; Nardi is a non-tender candidate. On the other hand, his salary projection is barely above the minimum ($800k), and given his past success and the lack of lefties in the bullpen, it might be worth taking the shot. It all depends on his health, and the organisation is quite adamant about sharing his status. I would not tender him. The roster goes down to 37 players.

Rule-5 draft:
Select C Joe Mack, RHPs Josh White, and William Kempner to the 40-man roster. 
Near-obvious moves given the quality displayed in AAA last year, both Mr Sussman and DJS agreed here. The roster is full now. Here is where things get interesting.

It's Trade Season:
- LHP Braxton Garrett and INF Connor Norby for RHP Juan Mejía and LHP Michael Prosecky from Colorado. Makes sense for both sides because the Rockies need all the SPs they can get, even with the huge health concerns that come with Garrett. They also need corner infielders, and after grabbing Johnston last week, Norby would be a good complement. Mejia is a high-octane reliever with only one year of service, with a FB-SL combo, and Prosecky is an AA lefty who has starting experience, but projects as a bullpen arm and can make the big leagues as soon as next season. Given the projected heavy-lefty lineup, the roster would need a RH bat...

- LHP Ryan Weathers and Anthony Bender for 3B/1B Coby Mayo and OF Austin Overn from Baltimore. How about giving another shot to this recently successful trade partnership? It should be pretty much the same trade as the win-win Norby-and-Stowers-for-Rogers trade. Baltimore will be hesitant to part ways with Mayo, but their roster already features a solid infield, and they have to give Basallo most reps at 1B. Mayo has always projected a higher ceiling than Norby, even at the expense of more swing-and-miss, but also more plate discipline. He is a below-average defender at 3B, but has a great arm, and the glove can improve (I bet he would be better than Norby anyway). Despite Baltimore's depth chart featuring eight starters, only Dean Kremer threw more than 120 innings last year, and he is more of a 5th starter. Overn is a glove-first CF playing double AA, and is basically a throw-in. Alternative: A trade for 3B Sal Stewart from CIN.

 

The roster sits now at 38 players.

For the love of god, can we sign a couple of free agents?
- Sign RHP Ryan Helsley at the same contract, but probably a couple more million the first year.

- Sign 1B Lewin Diaz to an incentive-loaded 2-year MLB guarantee contract ($5M the first year with up to $2M in incentives based on HRs, $7M second for the second year), with an opt-out option after the 1st year. This is basically replacing Johnston’s spot for a Gold Glove-calibre 1B, who just hit 50 HRs in Korea. If he can translate at least 20 of those against MLB pitching, the sign will be a bargain. One can dream about a Mack-Diaz-Edwards-Mayo/Pauley-López infield that would be very much appreciated by the entire pitching staff.

 

- Sign LHP José Quintana to a $5M one-year deal. This signing makes sense from many perspectives. After trading both lefties in the rotation, one veteran southpaw could be useful. Also, the contract is basically the same money as the projected arbitration salaries for Bender, Garrett, and Weathers. On top of that, Quintana can be a trade chip mid-season, pretty much the same as Quantrill was this year. Alternative: LHP Anthony Kay (Yokohama BayStars).

The roster reaches 40 players once again. I have not addressed one problem: this roster is missing a LH reliever. I think the approach here would be "finding a hidden gem" via Rule 5 claims or several minor league deals, with invitations to Spring Training. Speaking of which:

Minor League Free Agents:
Sign RHP Bellozo, LHP Nardi, and C Navarreto to minor league deals with an invitation to Spring Training. Contracts with incentives if they make the MLB roster, luring them to stay in the organisation. Other proposed minor league deals: LHP Génesis Cabrera, LHP Cionel Pérez, LHP John Rooney, LHP Matt Krook, LHP Drew Rom, LHP Ethan Small, RHP Nabil Crismatt, RHP Alexis Díaz, INF Kevin Newman, 1B/OH Nick Pratto, OF/DH Eloy Jiménez, and C Elias Díaz.

Contract Extensions:
Same as Ely, plus Marsee this mid-season, depending on how he performs before the All-Star break.

Projected 26-man to start the season:

Catchers: Hicks, Ramírez (with Mack eventually joining in late April or May, at the expense of Myers)
Infielders: Díaz, Edwards, Mayo, López, Pauley, Sanoja
Outfielders: Stowers, Marsee, Conine, Hernández, Myers
Starters: Alcántara, Cabrera, Pérez, Quintana, Junk
Relievers: Helsley (CL), Mejia (SU), Henriquez (SU), Faucher, Bachar, Phillips, Gibson, and Meyer
Rest of the 40-man: Acosta, Serna, Wagaman, Wiemer, Mesa Jr., De Los Santos, Mack, Kempner, White, Brzykcy, Mazur, Petersen, Gusto, Fulton

Opening Day Lineup (vs RHP):
Edwards 2B
Marsee CF
Stowers LF
Ramirez DH
Diaz 1B
Mayo 3B
Conine RF
Lopez SS
Hicks C

Lineup vs LHP:
Edwards 2B
Hernandez RF
Ramirez C
Stowers DH
Mayo 3B
Diaz 1B
Lopez SS
Myers CF
Sanoja LF

When Mack arrives, and if he performs as expected (around .240/.310/.400), the lineup will get a lot closer to a contender. There will be some more work still to be done, but that will depend on how the first half of the season develops. Roster pieces like Petersen, Josh White, Gusto, Wagaman, DLS, and minor league pieces like Snelling, Thomas White, and Alderman can be impactful down the stretch.

Most of the roster moves will not make the farm system, but the cost of the free agents might be a long shot, given the always-frugal ownership. As always, let me know what you think.

7 Comments


Recommended Comments

BMK3

Posted

1.  always liked Lewin Diaz.  The no shift rule should help him.  I see him as a platoon option and defensive player.   Interesting possibility.

2.   I do not want to lose Ryan Weathers.  I see him as our fourth starter.

3.   I see a Ryan Helsley addition as a MAJOR upgrade to an already deep bullpen.  I think Michael Peterson is being overlooked.

4.   I do not like either of our lefties in the bullpen and that needs to be upgraded.  There are two roster spots for you to fill.

5.   If Janson Junk is not a starter, he looks great as a long relief piece.

6.   One thing I have learned in my 70+ years of watching baseball is PITCHING WINS!  We have it.

7.   I hate the Jose Quintana idea.

8.  One last thought, as far as Coby Mayo goes, the jump from AAA to the majors is a very big one.

Hans Herrera

Posted

2 hours ago, BMK3 said:

1.  always liked Lewin Diaz.  The no shift rule should help him.  I see him as a platoon option and defensive player.   Interesting possibility.

2.   I do not want to lose Ryan Weathers.  I see him as our fourth starter.

3.   I see a Ryan Helsley addition as a MAJOR upgrade to an already deep bullpen.  I think Michael Peterson is being overlooked.

4.   I do not like either of our lefties in the bullpen and that needs to be upgraded.  There are two roster spots for you to fill.

5.   If Janson Junk is not a starter, he looks great as a long relief piece.

6.   One thing I have learned in my 70+ years of watching baseball is PITCHING WINS!  We have it.

7.   I hate the Jose Quintana idea.

8.  One last thought, as far as Coby Mayo goes, the jump from AAA to the majors is a very big one.

Thanks for your insights!

On Weathers: Since the Marlins won’t spend in frontline free agents, they need to trade Starters to get bats. And personally rather trade Weathers -who should have enough trade value- than Sandy or Eddy.

On Petersen: He throws gas, but also needs some fine-tuning. I think he will contribute along the way, but maybe not at the beginning, barring injuries.

On Quintana: after trading both Garrett and Weathers, the rotation could use a lefty. He should not come expensive, and he’s more a trading piece and a holdover while Snelling gets ready to join the team by mid-season.

On Mayo: there are many similarities with Norby, but Mayo has excelled in every level except the Majors, but that might also be because the Orioles have not gave him an extended opportunity at 3B. I do like his plate discipline and power.

BMK3

Posted

On 11/11/2025 at 1:03 PM, Hans Herrera said:

Thanks for your insights!

On Weathers: Since the Marlins won’t spend in frontline free agents, they need to trade Starters to get bats. And personally rather trade Weathers -who should have enough trade value- than Sandy or Eddy.

On Petersen: He throws gas, but also needs some fine-tuning. I think he will contribute along the way, but maybe not at the beginning, barring injuries.

On Quintana: after trading both Garrett and Weathers, the rotation could use a lefty. He should not come expensive, and he’s more a trading piece and a holdover while Snelling gets ready to join the team by mid-season.

On Mayo: there are many similarities with Norby, but Mayo has excelled in every level except the Majors, but that might also be because the Orioles have not gave him an extended opportunity at 3B. I do like his plate discipline and power.

By the way:    If I could pick an inexpensive, under-the-radar pickup who I have liked for a long time, it might be Lane Thomas.  Excellent defender and very good numbers against lefties.  Only 30 years old.

JustMarlins

Posted

I ran an AI experiment to see what the Marlins would do this offseason. Given the monetary constraints and all, this is what it came up with: 

 

Player Simulated Contract Role
Kyle Finnegan 1 yr / $6.25 M High-leverage reliever
Brad Keller 2 yrs / $15 M Multi-inning bullpen depth
Power Bat (O’Hearn) 1–2 yrs / $8–12 M Corner bat / DH
Complementary Arm 1 yr / $1–3 M Development / bullpen flier

 

This would make me satisfied. Maybe take a flyer on Kopech? 

What do you think about this?

Hans Herrera

Posted

3 hours ago, JustMarlins said:

I ran an AI experiment to see what the Marlins would do this offseason. Given the monetary constraints and all, this is what it came up with: 

 

Player Simulated Contract Role
Kyle Finnegan 1 yr / $6.25 M High-leverage reliever
Brad Keller 2 yrs / $15 M Multi-inning bullpen depth
Power Bat (O’Hearn) 1–2 yrs / $8–12 M Corner bat / DH
Complementary Arm 1 yr / $1–3 M Development / bullpen flier

 

This would make me satisfied. Maybe take a flyer on Kopech? 

What do you think about this?

Well, I think Finnegan is a good fit, same is O’Hearn. That complementary arm must be a left-handed, since Cade Gibson is the only reliable lefty out of the bullpen.

Although a solid acquisition which will further strengthen the arm corps, Keller’s money can go to yet another bat (for example, Adolis Garcia was non-tendered, or even all the buzz around Yandy Diaz).

There are several options for the long-reliever: Meyer, Gusto, even Phillips, that’s why I don’t see getting Keller as a straightforward move. But again, it will make the bullpen better.

More importantly, I don’t see Sherman giving Bendix $20M bucks to spend in free agency.

JustMarlins

Posted

3 minutes ago, Hans Herrera said:

Well, I think Finnegan is a good fit, same is O’Hearn. That complementary arm must be a left-handed, since Cade Gibson is the only reliable lefty out of the bullpen.

Although a solid acquisition which will further strengthen the arm corps, Keller’s money can go to yet another bat (for example, Adolis Garcia was non-tendered, or even all the buzz around Yandy Diaz).

There are several options for the long-reliever: Meyer, Gusto, even Phillips, that’s why I don’t see getting Keller as a straightforward move. But again, it will make the bullpen better.

More importantly, I don’t see Sherman giving Bendix $20M bucks to spend in free agency.

season 3 episode 20 GIF by SpongeBob SquarePants

Hans Herrera

Posted

And there goes Lewin Díaz 😭

#BringBackLewinDiaz in 2027.

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...