Sean McCormack

George Soriano In this discussion, I will do a breakdown of what I expect from George Soriano for this upcoming season. Soriano who is 24, turning 25 in March, is looking ahead to his first full season with the Marlins. Soriano who signed with the Fish back in 2015 has been utilized as a starter most of his young career, then made a transition to the bullpen with the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp in 2022. While in 2023 he moved part-time to the starting rotation in AAA for most of the season until he made his Major League debut with the Marlins on April 16th against the D-Backs tossing 3 scoreless innings. Soriano made one start with the big league club on July 5th against the Rangers where he went 3 innings and allowed 3 runs while walking 3 and punching out 4. The talk of the spring regarding Soriano is he will be used out of the Marlins bullpen but stretched out as a starter if needed. I believe Soriano has the potential to breakout with the Marlins this season, digging deeper into his pitch repertoire he has many things boding well for himself, either as a backend of the bullpen guy, backing up Tanner Scott close games, or a potential 4th or 5th starter if injuries or trades happen. Overall Numbers Soriano's numbers definitely don't jump off the stat sheet at first glance. Although I will do a deeper analysis of his actual pitch data it is important to review his tip of the iceberg numbers. In 2023 at the Major League level, Soriano put up a, 3.91 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and a 4.37 FIP in 52 innings, this is far from impressive but that's why it's important to dig deeper and see what adjustments could be made. Soriano has a 3-pitch mix which includes a 4S fastball, slider, and changeup. . Expected stats don't favor Soriano very much, to say the least, he had an xERA of 5.04 and an xwOBA of .341. Which leaves people possibly wondering, Well? Then what makes you like Soriano? One, He's young, and two his changeup and slider are great. Changeup Just like any other classic Marlin pitcher we've developed Soriano has that power changeup. Soriano's changeup comes at 89 MPH on average, he gets groundballs at a 67.6% clip which is 15% higher than the league average on changeups. George uses this pitch away from lefties and into righties, it has a lot of horizontal movement to it at 10.7 inches of movement on average which is 2 inches more than the average changeup. His ability to fill the zone with a CS% (called strike) of 12.6 which is 3% higher than average allows him to get an insane groundball rate with this pitch. Soriano relies on his changeup by throwing early in counts at a 67.4% rate. The reason for such a high early usage is definitely due to his terrible fastball which I will go into deeper later. Overall Soriano fills the zone up with his changeup that is full of electric movement with high velocity that results in an elite Brl% of 2.7% and an insane GB% of 67.6%. The only downside overall is that his changeup is only effective against lefties. For example, his AVG on the changeup vs lefties was .189 while against righties it was .308. I believe this is because his fastball shape is very similar to his changeup besides the velo on it which is very concerning. Concering 4Seam Shape One newer development at least to the public is the access to pitch shapes and one thing we've learned is that flat bad 4seam shape up in the zone leads to poor outcomes for the pitcher. This fastball shape is a lot more of a sinker profile than a good four-seam fastball. It has a ton of arm-side movement with a low amount of vertical movement. This is bad because he fills the top of the zone with a pitch that is flat and runs into barrels. Soriano's fastball also has about 200 less RPM than the average fastball with only 13.8 inches of induced break compared to a league average of 17.2, this is much more of a sinker profile that is being very misused. Not to mention he also has just league average velo on it at 94 mph. He doesn't get much swings or whiff on it. Players whiffed at 17% compared to a league average of 22% and a Str% of 59% which is below the league average mark of 64%. Soriano could do two things. Either change his fastball grip which isn't as easy as it sounds as this may just be natural to him, or he can just fully adopt a sinker and throw it low in the zone early in counts instead of throwing this fastball behind in counts like he does at a above avg mark of 23.5% and then rely on his nasty changeup and elite slider/sweeper to put hitters away. If he just adopts a sinker which seems to be more of a natural pitch for him he can throw that pitch into righties and jam guys while using his solid control to paint the corners on lefties and then use his changeup to put lefties away. As we'll see later his slider against lefties got very lucky. Soriano needs to adopt the mindset that he's best as a groundball pitcher and throwing a flat 4S fastball with a sinker profile on it is not reliable moving forward. Yennier Cano is a pitcher Soriano should try and mimic they're both players with a nasty changeup and slider with a sinker. The only difference is that Cano knows he has a sinker so he throws it down in the zone or uses it east to west instead of pounding the higher parts of the zone. Wicked Slider Nasty. That's the word people use when they see Soriano's slider. I'd say it's more of a new-age sweeper than anything it has 11 inches of horizontal movement on its moving glove side. That's nearly 5 inches more than average. It has an RPM of 2,688 which is 200 RPM more than average. This pitch is the only pitch he throws that allows more fly balls than groundballs but it comes at great chase rates. Soriano gets 38% whiff rate and a crazy 39% CSW%, This makes for I'd say elite slider. This is a legit slider that Soriano uses 38% of the time. Soriano does need to be careful with his slider placement to lefties. It got hit with a horrible 33% barrel rate with a 66% fly ball rate. That's going to result in major damage. He needs to throw that ball in the dirt to limit damage to lefties, this would explain his higher likelihood to throw lefties his changeup. This is by far his best put away pitch which explains why he got 33 of his 52 Ks this season on this pitch. Conclusion Overall George Soriano has a bright future ahead of him. Whether it's as a reliever with an elite pitch or a starter that can use his elite pitch and utilize his great changeup and develop a legit fastball to use. In my opinion, if he figures out his fastball he'll be able to be used as a starter. If he adopts a real sinker that he fills the zone with down and away or inside, then throws his slider to get strikeouts he can definitely be a guy who can be a mid-3s ERA at the back of a Major League rotation moving forward. I am very excited to see what Soriano brings to the Marlins this season as we look to make back-to-back playoffs for the first time in our franchise's history. Please let me know what you think of this analysis and if you have anything to add about Soriano. Sean McCormack

Very true, but I believe Plate discipline and ball data are a better way of predicting future success at the big league level then just his stats. He’s consistently had great plate approach and a solid hard hit rates throughout the minors. Just way too much ground balls.

This would be trading Cabrera at his lowest value. I believe we’re better off betting on him finding control and moving him next offseason or even a bullpen role. Good luck finding a 100 mph fastball with a 97 mph changeup at times.

I honestly dig this trade a lot. If the marlins are able to tweak his launch angle and get him hitting the ball in the air more, to combine with his great plate discipline we could’ve just acquired a guy who could potentially be a everyday 3rd baseman for us. If not a solid bench piece.

Throughout this offseason, there has been much talk about the possibility of a new shortstop for this season. With the rumors at last season's deadline of the Marlins considering moving Jake Eder for Maikel Garcia, before the Marlins decided to move Eder for Jake Burger in a deal that is looking pretty good so far. And with rumors during the winter meetings in December that the Marlins and Royals were again considering a pitcher and hitter swap, between Jesus Luzardo and first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino. I thought why not return to the Royals and snag a potential future 3rd baseman or shortstop of the future. Maikel Garcia (23) 3B/SS is a former top prospect in the Royals org who has seemed always to be a bit overlooked with the young strong patch of Royals hitters that have debuted in the past couple of years. I believe behind Bobby Witt Jr he is the best middle infielder in their org despite playing 3rd base at the major league level, due to Bobby Witt Jr. It has been clear the Royals are looking to add even more pitching after the signings of Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Kyle Wright to add to their rotation in 2024. So the idea of them moving a young controlable infielder isn't that far-fetched. What does Maikel Garcia do well? He hits the ball HARD. In 2023 he had a 50.6% hard-hit rate which ranked in the 93% tile in the sport. He combines this with a great approach at the plate. He only whiffs and chases at a 20.6% and 19.5% rate. This is near the top of baseball in being patient at the plate. Maikel combines this with a 2% league higher than average zone contact rate at 85% and makes a great out-of-zone contact rate of 66% compared to an MLB average of 58%. Garcia doesn't swing and miss out of the zone or in the zone and makes above-average contact rates at both. His batting profile is a lot like Marlins Superstar Luis Arraez where he spreads the ball around the field. He hits the ball to the opposite field direction more than his pull side. His dominant direction is straight up at 42%. Another important note is that he has raised his average launch angle from 3% in 2022 to 6% launch angle in 2023. This will help him going forward with hitting fewer ground balls which he saw decrease 4% from 2022 to 2023. He also has a high Line drive rate which will play well with his 110mph exit velo, which is amazing for someone his size at 6 foot 180lbs. Aside from his great hitting profile, he is an amazing defender. Garica recorded 14 OAA in 2023, between 3rd and SS this past season. 11 of which came at 3rd which ranked 2nd in all of baseball. DRS doesn't favor him as much with a total of -1 DRS for the season. Fielding stats are still a bit tricky to figure out, but Garcia has the pedigree of being a legit defender and is still young. Along with the defense he is a fast runner, he stole 23 bags last season and got caught 7 times. He has a sprint speed that ranks in the 73% tile in the MLB. The cherry on top is controllability. Maikel Garica isn't an FA until 2030 and doesn't hit ARB until 2026. Now for the possible trade packages. With all the rumors surrounding Jesus Luzardo's name and that the Royals and Marlins had discussed between him why not include him as the centerpiece of this deal. Trade 1: Royals get, LHP Jesus Luzardo. Marlins get, 3B/SS Maikel Garcia, OF Tyler Gentry, (8th Ranked Prospect in their Org, per-MLB.com), and RHP Matt Sauer, (22nd Ranked prospect in their Org, per-MLB.com) Notes on trade: Royals get 3 years of Luzardo coming off his best season as a pro. Who is objectively a top 5 left-handed starter in Baseball. The Marlins get Maikel Garcia who can be our future SS or play 3rd base if we choose to move burger to 1st and sign a stop-gap SS for a season. We also get 2 prospects in this deal. Tyler Gentry is a AAA outfielder who was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2020 draft by the Royals. This past season at age 24 he had a .253/.370/.421 slash line with a 103 wRC+. Gentry has a nice K-BB ratio with a 22% K rate and a 14% walk rate while playing solid corner OF defense. He would slot in as our best OF prospect in my opinion over Victor Mesa Jr. The 2nd prospect in this deal Matt Sauer is a 25-year-old pitcher who played in double-A for the Yankees this past season. The Royals selected him in this year's Rule-5 draft meaning we would have to keep him on the 26-man roster the full year. This is okay, Sauer is definitely MLB-ready. Sauer throws a 3 pitch mix between a fastball, changeup, and slider. The fastball and slider are his 2 best pitches. The Marlins have a track record of developing pitchers and changeups, Mel Stottlemrye Jr has done a great job at helping our young starters and I see no reason why he couldn't help mold Sauer into a quality 5th option or long man out of our pen. The Yankees have also seen many pitchers nabbed by other teams in the Rule-5 draft and have a lot of respect around the industry in minor-league pitching development. Sauer needs to limit the long ball moving forward but that will be suppressed in Loan Depot Park. In AA he had a 10K/9 and 3BB/9 which leads me to believe he will translate well to the big leagues. Trade package 2 Royals get, RHP Edward Cabrera and LHP Steven Okert. Marlins get, 3B/SS Maikel Garcia. Notes on trade: The Royals would get probably the Marlins 2nd most likely pitcher trade candidate in Cabrera. Edward is 25 and coming off a bit of a rocky 2023 which he had major command issues. He is still nasty and has a lot of potential, if he's able to reel in the walks like Luzardo did the sky is the limit for Cabrera. The Marlins have been rumored to have looked for some swaps and this could be a perfect match. Secondly is Steven Okert who may be the odd one out of our Bullpen for lefties. Unless there is a Tanner Scott trade between the writing of this article and opening day, or an injury, I don't see Okert making the 26-man roster out of spring. He has had 3 years in Miami with 2021 and 2022 being very effective. Okert spent some time on the IL this past season and with guys like Nardi, Puk, and even Josh Simpson potentially joining this bullpen, I believe Okert is the most expendable lefty we have. He would fit into a Royals Bullpen that lacks lefties with only two and only 1 productive one in Will Smith. Okert could add some lefty juice for them with his nasty slider in 2024. Overall, I hope to see the Marlins make a move before opening day at the 3rd Base or Shortstop position, we have starters that are of high value and need some more talent on the hitting side. Maikel Garica is the perfect blend of Hit tool, raw power, fielding ability, youth, controllability, and speed. He could be a key piece of the Marlins going forward and guy we can build around on the infield for years to come. - Sean McCormack

I actually would love TA. Coming off his worst year, he’s 29 I believe and hated chicago towards the end. A change of scenery could be great for him, Analytically his Babip was way down and his launch angle was a career low, while also having a worst HH%. He chased at a higher rate as other years. I honestly believe a 1-2 year deal get him some different coaching try and get him back to his old self is worth it. If he sucks he’s gone the next year and if hes good and we suck we get a couple prospects at deadline and if he’s good and were good thats great. Could be a lot like the 2021 Marcus semien Blue jays year. I could see a big cheap comeback for TA. Low risk, high reward.

Im not sure if maybe this hasn't been reported. But I am very curious if there has been any minor league coaching or philosophy changes since Bendix has taken over with our hitting development. I know apart of our lack of hitting development does come from poor amateur scouting, which with the hiring of Pilierre I believe its spelt coming it I do have faith that’ll change he has a nice track record. I just know the marlins need philosophical change. We saw it with Brant brown at the major league level and how much more analytical he was than anyone else. Seeing us hire a driveline guy is great and gives me hope. But I really hope we change our hitting development. Our guys in the minors have poor approach. We lead the minors in Swstr%, O-zone%, among other concerning stats. Also lead in K% and low in BB% among all our minor leagues. Clearly a bad mix of poor drafting and 0 hitting development and poor hitting philosophy being taught.

Although, it is highly disappointing to potentially trade a home town kid like Luzardo, I do believe it is best. This was Luzardo’s not only best season but his first full healthy season. Personally I doubt he repeats that. He has 2-3 years left of team control and objectively was a top 5 lefty in baseball last year. I was beyond happy with the bendix hire as I am a part time rays fan, full time marlins fan. I have complete belief in Bendix to adapt the rays model of success and it starts like this. I’m shocked Tanner Scott is still a Marlin. Best year of his career with 1 more year od ARB making 5.5M this season. That goes against everything Bendix believes in with having a expensive reliever. I’d like a deal either with the Red sox or O’s with Luzardo. Possibly even the cubs, we could get some very nice prospects. If Luzardo is moved I hope we sign a vet to a 1 year because we’re going to end up like last season throwing some distasteful arms in big games.