Hans Herrera

Stowers no va pa ningún lado… a menos que… la temporada de los Marlins sea horrible y en junio hagan cambios. Financieramente, no hay prisa. Este año va a ganar el mínimo. Dependiendo de los resultados este 2026, su salario puede subir bastante, pero no tanto como para tener que deshacerse de él después de la temporada. Ely escribió un artículo diciendo que Los Marlins ya empezaron a prepararse para la vida después de Stowers. Claramente Caissie es el reemplazante natural, pero hay que esperar cómo le va esta primera temporada completa en las mayores. Amanecerá y veremos, dijo el ciego.

Then they will say: Just wait until the Giancarlo Stanton's money comes off the books... then they'll spend!!

So what's the point in prioritising the future if there will never be a competitive present? It just makes no sense!. Are they expecting a forever-pre-arbitration team to ever reach the playoffs? Isn't it cheap enough to pay the minimum salary to the entire lineup and more than half of your pitchers? Take next season. The only offensive player outside pre-arb is Christofer Morel, at the outrageous $2M the year. Everyone else is earning at or barely above the league minimum. No team is remotely close to that cost-benefit ratio. The pitching is not that far. Apart from Sandy and Fairbanks (combined account for almost half of the entire payroll next year), Garrett, Nardi, Meyer, and Faucher are all under $2M each, with Andrew and Max not even reachin' $1M. Bender is the highest arb at $2.8M, and he for sure is on his way out this summer. The level of cheapness is disgusting.

Say hi to a younger José Ureña!

I hate this, I do. But I also understand it, Caissie is too appealing to miss out. Either him or Conine will have to see time at 1B. In any case, that takes the Marlins’ chances to make the playoffs… at least with the current roster. There is still time to acquire a bullpen arm or two, and maybe a veteran starter. Goodbye, Eddy. Miami will miss you.

If the Marlins really want to contend over the next three years, Eddy has to stay. He's reaching his peak in that window, and the three-headed monster (Sandy-Eddy-Eury) is just scary. As Ely mentions, teams usually get more desperate in late July, so the return should be better than now. Besides, the Marlins have rotation depth, but you cannot say there is a lot of it. Some quick projections around the projected rotation: P10 (Best-case scenario): Sandy again in the conversation for the Cy Young award; Eddy, Eury, and Weathers throw at least 150 IP each of 3.50ish ball. Buyers at the deadline. Make it through the Wild Card Series and lose either in the NLDS or the NLCS. Good-case scenario: Sandy gets closer to his old self; Eddy and Eury keep improving, the back of the rotation holds its own, and the offence improves but stays close to average. Solid bullpen. The Marlins should be in the thick of the WC race most of the year. Chances to make the WCS are above 50%. P50 (status quo): One of them three underperforms, some injuries on the back side of the rotation, and sophomore regressions. The Marlins remain with an outside shot of making the playoffs (just like in 2025). Worst-case scenario (P90): Eddy gets hurt and misses the season, Sandy and Eury are a bit better than last season, but still far from their potential. Sandy, Fairbanks, and some other are traded in July. Back of the rotation so-so. Stowers regresses; Gus cannot take another step forward. 70 wins, max.

If the FO is not going to sign any free agents, at least they should try Gus Ramírez at 1B, where he played 20ish games last year. That move alone will improve the team in several front: better defense behind the plate, less workload for him, more fireworks for the corner infield. I don’t think they should improvise with Stowers at 1B.

It depends. To me, the best fit for a trade with Baltimore is Coby Mayo. There is no clear path for him next year unless Westburg gets injured, which happens often. Both Mayo and Basallo have nothing left to prove in AAA, hence, the Orioles have somehow an urgency to move one of the FOUR (!) 1Bmen currently on their roster. They would love to squeeze something out of Mountcastle’s current trade value, but no team is interested in paying him $7.5M for subpar production. With all that said, the Fish can work out a trade to get Mounty without having to sacrifice much prospect capital, if any. To put it simply, if the O’s are shopping him and comes cheap, why not? Say, if the Orioles eat $5M of the salary AND/OR is packaged with a lefty reliever in exchange for international bonus pool money or a PTBNL, I’m bringing him in. Maybe a change of scenery is exactly what he needs.

I'm not sure about that, since the 40-man roster remains full. I think we might see some action after the first week of January, as both Imai and Okamoto should be signed by that time. Miami's approach is to be active in a ripple effect. For example, the Imai signing will make some bidding losers turn into the trade market, where Eddy Cabrera, MacKensie Gore, and Joe Ryan are available. Some contender might get desperate and offer an acceptable package for either Eddy, Weathers, Meyer or even Sandy, and Bendix won't hesitate if he likes what he sees... hoping it includes an MLB-ready bat who can play 1B, 3B or corner OF. As for Free Agency, I don't see much more than a group of non-roster invitees from now until the start of Spring Training. In summary, I expect a couple of quiet weeks to begin the new year. (I hope I'm wrong).

I hope the roster can actually get better before spring training. So far is Fairbanks for Henríquez, Ruiz for Myers, and Morel for Wagaman. In theory, not substantial change for the active roster, for the better or worse. The 26-man still needs a high leverage lefty out of the bullpen and an impact corner infield bat, ideally two of those.

Fairbanks! 🤩🤩🤩

This entry was not in the plans, as the Marlins entered the offseason firmly convinced they needed an established closer (i.e., no “hidden gem”) for next year. Turns out as of today that they not only still need that closer, but now they’ve lost their best bullpen arm in Ronny Henríquez. Although never truly a closer, Ronny was more a “setup” man and the best performer in high leverage situations. Himself a waiver claim, Henríquez came out of nowhere last winter and sized his opportunity. A wild guess is that the Front Office would like to replicate that transaction, so the focus here is to find a group of pitchers that are not drawing much attention, if any, but with a few tweaks could potentially turn into Henriquez-que performances next year. My favourite: Rafael Montero With a long career stating as a swingman and after 2019 a full-time average reliever, Montero peaked in 2022 as a fundamental piece of the World Series’ Astros. His stock has crashed right after that, playing for three different clubs this past season. He will probably require a major league contract given his experience, but should be in the $1,5M range. So why sign him? Well, as in the previous “hidden gem” post, there is a lot to like under the hood. Just have a look as his Baseball Savant page. The red flag are the walks, but everything else is in the red zone. If the Marlins can build a strategy around his pitch mix usage (particularly his splitter), Montero can be a buy low, high output addition. The Injury-prone: Jonathan Loáisiga Yankees prospects always come with that extra fanfare when making it to the big leagues. Loáisiga was not the exception. Flashing a high 90s sinker that could blow out batters, fans in The Bronx were really excited about this guy. Unfortunately, major injuries have derailed the career of Nicaraguan-born, and has only managed to pitch in more than 50 games only twice in eight seasons. What is to like? He can still throw gas, and his sinker can induce a decent amount of ground balls - I insist with the GB because the infield looks amazing if they play Pauley at third -. I’m not sure how team would evaluate his contract for next season, but given his injury record, shouldn’t come expensive even for Marlins’ standards. Who?: Miguel Castro Last time Castro had a good season was in 2023 as a member of the Dbacks. He appeared in a league-high 75 games of 4.31-ball. Over the last two seasons, however, he’s been terrible. If the coaching staff can manage to bring his changeup back in the mix, he should be a solid arm for a minor league contract. He’s been around since 2015 and somehow today is only his 31st birthday. Old flame: Ryne Stanek Despite David Robertson is also a strong candidate in this category, Stanek’s recent woes might bring him back to Miami at a discount. He continues to have two above-average offerings (4FB and SL) and has lots of experience, always useful in a young team. Not a free agent, but Edgardo Henríquez … not a joke: the Marlins could replace one Henríquez with another. In a stacked LA bullpen that just got stronger signing Edwin Díaz, there won’t be a lot of innings for him next season, barring injuries. In Miami, Henríquez might have a clearer path, and his stuff is solid with a blowout fastball which averages over 100 mph. Bruce can also save some money not having to buy new jerseys for him. The problem is, he won’t come cheap in terms of trade prospects.

I’m finishing five “hidden gems” for my blog today! Although mine is almost exclusively about free agents. I guess we are all really concerned about the Henríquez situation.

I’m not an MLB-economy expert, but I’ll take a wild guess stating that playoff teams make more money than non-contenders, so any investment that can potentially take you to the Wild Card series would be worthy. It is simple: Normally, payroll investments increase a team’s chances to make the playoffs, keeping the fanbase happy (the priority!) as well as increasing the owners’ profit (i.e., more money for the “debt”).

That's true, but I think the Marlins are more in need of a true closer than they need an "innings eater". I'm sure that if they don't trade any SP and move Meyer to the bullpen as a long reliever, acquiring Fairbanks should do the trick next season. The Free Agent reliever list with closing experience or material is running dry. Plan Bs can be Kirby Yates (if healthy), David Robertson, and maybe Seranthony Domínguez. Fallback or Come-back candidates are Evan Phillips (projected to return from TJ around the ASG), José Leclerc, Ryan Pressly, or even Liam Hendricks or Craig Kimbrel. Not too inspiring, but I'd offer a contract to Phillips.

Hey LMF, You’re right about the franchise solidifying the core: scouts, managers, even the FO seems to know what they are doing, unlike previous administrations. However, I’m on that half of fans who believe the ownership is a cheap one, and that’s because the team should be the envy of the league - year two of a rebuild and got already close of being a contender- but nobody is worried about the Marlins as they know Sherman won’t spend. No matter what all those rookies did last year, there will be one or two that will regress next season. There will be one or two injuries. There are currently whole on the roster that you cannot fill internally - and they admitted it - , for example, the closer role, or 1B, which only got worse when the DFA’d Johnston. Even if you want to build a team for contention in 2028, you will have to bring a free agent, for whatever reason. Take for example the two pennants: in ‘97 they brought Alou and Bonilla, or Pudge joining in ‘03. And with BY FAR the lowest payroll in the game, what is preventing you from having a better chance? I hope they swing a trade, but I don’t think they should trade away any of the staters… maybe Janson Junk, but you won’t get a lot from him. The main message is this: there are many reasons to be optimistic (and generally speaking, I am!), but it is infuriating the lack of ambition when the team has never been in a better position to compete not only next season but a few more ahead as well, and that lack of ambition is evident when the owners deny to bring what the team is missing, just to save some money they will get back one way or another.

I mean, the Morel signing at least makes sense. The raw power is there, the arm is there, the versatility (OF, 3B) is there, but K% and chase rate are concerning, for saying the least. Worth the shot for $2M in any case. The Maikel García extension can serve as another benchmark for Marsee, right?

It is not a secret that the Marlins have improvement opportunities for relievers, particularly left-handed, both corner infielders, and could use a glove-first OF, even though Sanoja can do the job. It is also not a secret that the ownership is, to put it mildly, reluctant to spend in free agency, for whatever reason. Having said that, allow me to propose a group of low-risk and high-upside lefty FA relievers who might settle for a minor league deal entering next season. My favourite: LHP Cionel Pérez The Cuban Pérez debuted in 208 as a member of the Astros, pitching only 16.1 innings in three different seasons. Traded to the Reds before the 2021 season, Pérez made 25 appearances with a 6.38 ERA. Cincinnati did not tender him and was claimed by the O's in November that year. Out of nowhere, Pérez pitched incredibly in 2022, throwing 57.2 innings of 1.40 ERA and 2.80 FIP. He regressed in both 2023 and 2024, but always maintained a respectable FIP. This past season, his production plummeted, and the O's granted him free agency a couple of weeks ago. Next year, Pérez will enter his 30-year-old season, and a minor league deal seems the best offer he will get. Then why sign him? Looking under the hood, his sinker is still in the 71 percentile (95.6 mph), with xERA (3.93), FIP (5.77), and xBA (.214) all far from his actual 8.31 ERA in 2025; there is quite a lot of upside. Although his K% is under 20%, his GB rate was over 60% and has never been under 51% since becoming a regular in 2021. The Fish will present a great defensive infield with Pauley, López, Edwards, and Wagaman (maybe not him?), and a ground ball specialist can only be beneficial. Injury risky: LHP Génesis Cabrera If the Marlins don't like to have two Pérez-es, let's try two Cabreras. Early this decade, Cabrera looked like a wild but effective reliever for Saint Louis. Between increased control problems and devastating injuries, his career never took off, even though he looked much better when traded to Toronto in 2023. This season, he pitched for four teams: opened the season with NYM, then CHC, PIT, and closed the season in MIN. He was decent with the Mets, palatable with the Pirates, and horrendous with the other two. Why sign him? Again, his Statcast chart doesn't look terrible, except for the huge amount of walks. His only good pitch is his 4-seamer, but not long ago, his cutter and curveball were above-average. Maybe some fine-tuning can unlock his potential, and he's still under 30-yo. Given his injury record and inconsistency, Cabrera probably won't get a major league deal. Who?: LHP Sam Long Reliever inconsistency personified. Non-tendered by the Royals in November, Long has sandwiched bad and good seasons ever since debuting back in 2021. Have a look at his ERA every year: 5.53 ('21), 3.61, 5.60, 3.16, and 5.36 this year. The same Statcast engine shows quite decent profiles in 2023, and especially 2024. He has changed his repertoire every year, so maybe a more streamlined analysis and focus can help the guy. Why sign him? If the pitching coaches can make this guy replicate his 2024, this signing would be a steal. Old flame: LHP Colin Poche Poche had a disastrous season this year, but before that, he was a dependable lefty out of the bullpen for Tampa the three years prior, which means Pedro Benditex should know him pretty well. Poche's 2023 Savant page is full of red, and even though his FB was only 92.5 mph, his extension has always been above the 95th percentile. If he can perform somewhere between his 2023 and 2024, you can call him a bargain. Not exactly a Free Agent, but: LHP Tim Herrin ... wouldn't require a ton of prospects to trade for him with the Guardians. In 2024, Herrin was an extremely underrated, lights-out arm in an otherwise tremendous bullpen corps. He took a big step back this year and ended up being sent down to AAA. There are many interesting things on his Statcast page, even for this "down" year. Why? Again, anything in between his 2025 and 2024 would do just fine, but if he can approach his output to the latter, that would be the steal of the decade along with Henríquez.

First of all.... So freaking disappointing that this team hasn't been in a better position in YEARS - Close to being a solid competitive team, missing two or three pieces, all while having the lowest payroll in the majors... This should be the definition of a franchise dream for both fans and the management... And still not doing anything about it! And about the roster: I think Junk should have the edge over Meyer for that 5th rotation spot, but I understand that Max still has upside while Junk is probably at his peak. Otherwise, there is not much else to say, right?

Me too!

I proposed a similar trade in my offseason Blueprint: but I feel giving Eddy is an overpay (not that far off, though). I hope this is not just smoke and mirrors.

When FOF writes an article about a potential free agent target for the Marlins, doubles possibility of signing with other team within the same week 😂😅 Helsley, Williams, and now Pagán.

All these positional changes send one clear message: The ownership will not spend any money in Free Agency. Shocking.

It's getting more difficult for the Fish to actually sign a high-end arm. I know Bendix should be all over Fairbanks, but maybe focusing on a still good but not so coveted arm, say, Jensen or Pagán, can make it a bit easier.

It is a long shot, but I think the Marlins should go after Daniel Susac. I say it is a long shot because some other team will pick him up first. But if not, they should definitely do it. From this article, I like Piñango, but I don't see him as a good fit for the current roster. Also, Gauthier from the Dodgers. Another name that might be a good fit is 1B TJ Rumfield (NYY).