Ely Sussman

There were several folks who had extreme confidence in him, yourself included. Nobody makes contact as reliably as Arraez does, but I am coming around to Luis Castillo as a somewhat attainable career outcome (just without the Gold Gloves).

I am astounded by what Edwards is doing. Recorded some of my thoughts here: Will write additionally on the topic soon.

Well since you brought him up...When Hanley was Jazz's age, he had already placed 2nd in the NL MVP race, which was his 4th consecutive healthy (and excellent) full-length season. I don't see them as comparable. With that being said, I would have preferred extending Jazz over trading him. Doesn't seem as if any progress was made on that front. Assuming there was no path to an extension, I think this was the appropriate time to part ways and they did an OK job (C+) of salvaging a substantial return.

Big Fish Small Pod for Thursday, August 1 Shortstop Xavier Edwards was nothing short of phenomenal for the Miami Marlins in July, his first full month as an everyday big leaguer. Ely Sussman analyzes where Edwards has improved and how his recent performance impacts his future with the organization. Find Big Fish Small Pod on the Fish On First YouTube channel, our new-look Apple Podcasts channel and wherever else you get your pods. FOF's audio programming also includes The Offishial Show, Fish Unfiltered, Swimming Upstream and more. The Fish On First podcast is presented by MPT College Consulting! They pride themselves on helping clients navigate the college application process. This includes preparation for standardized testing, guidance through high school, assistance with essays and applications, and choosing the right college. Visit them today at mptcollegeconsulting.com to learn more about their services and schedule a free consultation. Although he's miscast as a shortstop and limited in the power department, Edwards is thriving in all other aspects of the game. He's slashing .395/.461/.500 since being recalled from Triple-A Jacksonville with nine stolen bases and nearly as many walks as strikeouts. The switch-hitter has been equally productive from both sides of the plate. His July batting average was 38 points higher than any other National League qualifier! Compared to his first taste of the majors in 2023, Edwards is working deeper counts, and cutting down on grounders and lazy fly balls in favor of line drives. Of course Jazz Chisholm Jr. will be missed, but Edwards has the skills to be a valuable leadoff hitter for the Fish for the foreseeable future. Follow Ely (@RealEly) and Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) on Twitter. Join the Marlins Discord server! Complete Miami Marlins coverage here at FishOnFirst.com. View full article

Offishial News for 8/1/24 On Wednesday, Jake Burger hit his 15th home run of the season while Jonah Bride hit his first. Roddery Muñoz worked five solid innings and the remnants of the Marlins bullpen actually threw up zeroes in relief of him. Kyle Stowers went 0-for-4 with four strikeouts in his debut with the club—he has the unfortunate distinction of being the only player in history to wear the "golden sombrero" in his Marlins debut. The Marlins won, 6-2. Down on the farm, Double-A Pensacola swept their doubleheader, winning 16-7 and 20-1. That's right: 36 combined runs scored by the Blue Wahoos in 14 innings. New INF Jared Serna went 6-for-9 with 7 RBI. OF Jakob Marsee hit a grand slam and drew four walks. High-A Beloit got swept in their doubleheader, losing 17-5 and 5-4. Miserable outing for RHP Noble Meyer (2.0 IP, 4 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 1 K, 60 pitches/28 strikes). Through 56 ⅓ innings pitched this season, Meyer has issued 40 walks. LHP Justin Storm struck out five of nine batters faced in his Sky Carp debut. Low-A Jupiter won, 7-3. C Ryan Ignoffo and OF Kemp Alderman continue to produce runs. RHP Eliazar Dishmey (5.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 60 pitches/42 strikes) was impressive again (2.86 ERA and .174 BAA in his last eight starts). Here's more Marlins news and content: 🔷 Burger has been one of MLB's best power hitters since July 12. That's when he had a breakthrough with his mechanics, as Alex Krutchik details. 🔷 Xavier Edwards was brilliant throughout July, his first full month as an everyday major leaguer. He accrued 1.3 fWAR, tied with the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Jarren Duran. His .395 batting average led all National League qualifiers. Edwards also hit for the second cycle in Marlins history. I'd still like to see much more from him at shortstop before trusting that he can capably stick there, but sure looks like the Fish have found their leadoff hitter for the foreseeable future. 🔷 Speaking of Marlins history, on this day in 2019, Harold Ramírez blasted a walk-off homer in the 12th inning against the Twins. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, let's check in with some old friends. The Yankees are still undefeated since adding Jazz Chisholm Jr., who is slashing .368/.400/1.000 through four games played. A.J. Puk has begun his Diamondbacks tenure with back-to-back-to-back scoreless appearances. Bryan De La Cruz went 2-for-4, batted cleanup and manned right field in his Pirates debut. Huascar Brazoban and Bryan Hoeing each pitched scoreless innings for the Mets and Padres, respectively. Trevor Rogers should be starting for the Orioles tonight. 🔷 Craig Mish and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald have some behind-the-scenes details about how the Marlins' trade deadline activity went down. The Reds and Mets also submitted offers for Rogers that the team liked, "but the Orioles were willing to go a step further by offering two promising position prospects." Two former general managers described it as "Miami's best deal of the week" (an assessment that I agree with). The Phillies, Mets, Dodgers, Orioles and Padres were Tanner Scott's "primary suitors." On Wednesday morning, Peter Bendix addressed the media about his deadline activity. 🔷 Today's MLB game: the Marlins (probable starter RHP Max Meyer) begin a four-game set against the Braves (RHP Charlie Morton) at Truist Park. The Marlins have a 37.6% chance to win, per FanGraphs. First pitch at 7:20 p.m. ET. 🔷 Join us for a new episode of Fish On First LIVE tonight from 6:00-7:00 p.m. ET on YouTube/Twitter/Facebook. FOF LIVE is presented by Berger & Hicks. If you’ve been injured as a result of somebody else’s negligence, give them a call at (305) 670-7050. 🔷 Today's MiLB schedule: Triple-A Jacksonville vs. Lehigh Valley, 5:05 p.m. ET (completion of previously suspended game followed by regularly scheduled game) Double-A Pensacola at Chattanooga, 7:15 p.m. ET High-A Beloit at Lake County, 7:00 p.m. ET Low-A Jupiter at Clearwater, 6:30 p.m. ET DSL Marlins vs. DSL Giants Orange, 10:00 a.m. ET (completion of previously suspended game followed by regularly scheduled game) DSL Miami at DSL Rangers Red, 11:00 a.m. ET Marlins podcast episodes View full article

Highlights of new Marlins infielder Jared Serna during Double-A Pensacola's July 31 doubleheader against the Chattanooga Lookouts. Serna went 4-for-5 in the first game and 2-for-4 in the second, driving in seven total runs. View full video

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. These notes apply to the second and final game of Miami's road series against the Tampa Bay Rays. View full article

Offishial News for 7/31/24 On Tuesday, the Marlins acquired 10(!) new players, all but one of whom are still considered prospects: INF/OF Connor Norby, LHP Robby Snelling, INF Graham Pauley, RHP Adam Mazur, OF Kyle Stowers, INF Jay Beshears, RHP Jun-Seok Shim, INF/C Garret Forrester, RHP Will Schomberg and INF Wilfredo Lara. To get that haul, Miami's front office had to dismantle half of their major league bullpen—Tanner Scott and Bryan Hoeing to the Padres, Huascar Brazoban to the Mets and JT Chargois to the Mariners—send this year's only durable starter, Trevor Rogers, to the Orioles, and move lineup staples Bryan De La Cruz and Josh Bell to Pittsburgh and Arizona, respectively. The stunner of the day was Rogers for Norby and Stowers. I spoke at length about that one on a mid-afternoon Twitter Space. Stowers will be reporting directly to the active roster. Particularly over the next month, this team is going to be awful at the major league level. The Marlins made that trade-off to come away with a legitimately average-quality farm system after entering 2024 with a barren one. They are banking on being able to develop another wave of impactful relievers out of thin air, and that Jazz Chisholm Jr. won't haunt them for moving on from him too soon (so far, he's been phenomenal with the Yankees). The graphic below summarizes all of the organization's additions and subtractions throughout the week leading up to the deadline. On the field, Edward Cabrera was great through five innings, but exited in the sixth with left knee pain. He'll undergo further testing to determine the severity of the injury. Declan Cronin and Austin Kitchen (making his major league debut) allowed the Rays offense to erupt from there. Home runs by Emmanuel Rivera and Jake Burger were not nearly enough. The Marlins lost, 9-3. Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville won, 7-3. INF Deyvison De Los Santos homered again. C/1B Agustín Ramírez went 2-for-4 with a walk and a stolen base in his organizational debut. Low-A Jupiter won, 7-3. 1B/OF Angelo DiSpigna hit a grand slam. DSL Marlins won, 14-5. OF Janero Miller hit his first career home run. DSL Miami lost, 10-4. Here's more Marlins news and content: 🔷 President of baseball operations Peter Bendix released this vague statement on Tuesday evening: "After a busy trade deadline with many tough decisions, we're excited about the layers of talent joining our organization. Our goal is to be a consistently competitive team. With the talented and promising players we've acquired, we're confident that we're moving in the right direction and building a deeper and stronger organization. We thank our fans for their continued support and share their goal of being a contending team that they can be proud of." He will explain his moves in greater detail later today. 🔷 After a three-month carriage dispute, Bally Sports regional networks (including Bally Sports Florida) will be available to Comcast customers beginning on Thursday. However, those channels have shifted into a different "tier"—you will need Xfinity's Ultimate TV package, if you don't have it already. 🔷 On this day in 2014, an inning-ending double play was overturned after an extensive replay review found that Jeff Mathis illegally blocked home plate. Tommy Hutton let loose a memorable rant and manager Mike Redmond got ejected. 🔷 Today would have been José Fernández's 32nd birthday. In nearly eight years since his death, there has not been another Marlins player who exuded so much charisma while also performing at an elite level. This franchise still hasn't recovered from the agonizing loss. 🔷 The most notable non-Marlins-related deadline day trades: Jack Flaherty (Tigers) to the Dodgers for prospects Thayron Liranzo and Trey Sweeney; Isiah Kiner-Falefa (Blue Jays) to the Pirates for prospect Charles McAdoo; Mark Canha (Tigers) to the Giants for prospect Eric Silva; Martín Pérez (Pirates) to the Padres for prospect Ronaldys Jimenez; Gregory Soto (Phillies) to the Orioles for prospects Seth Johnson and Moises Chace; Paul Blackburn (Athletics) to the Mets for prospect Kade Morris; Eloy Jimenez (White Sox) to the Orioles for prospect Trey McGough. 🔷 Today's MLB game: the Marlins (probable starter RHP Roddery Muñoz) and Rays (RHP Taj Bradley) have their final Citrus Series meeting of the season. The Marlins have a 31.3% chance to win, per FanGraphs. First pitch at 12:10 p.m. ET. 🔷 Today's MiLB schedule: Triple-A Jacksonville vs. Lehigh Valley, 7:05 p.m. ET Double-A Pensacola at Chattanooga, doubleheader beginning at 7:15 p.m. ET High-A Beloit at Lake County, 4:00 p.m. ET (resumption of previously suspended game following by regularly scheduled game) Low-A Jupiter at Clearwater, 12:00 p.m. ET Marlins podcast episodes View full article

Scott spent less than three seasons in Miami, but for most of that tenure, he was elite. I don't need to use a single stat to vouch for Tanner Scott's greatness. More so than other types of players on a baseball roster, high-leverage relievers distinguish themselves from each other by how they make us feel. What's your confidence level in them when entering the game? Overcoming a leadoff walk? When they're seeking redemption after failing their previous assignment? Particularly in 2023 and 2024, the sight of Scott on the mound made a Miami Marlins victory feel inevitable. He put himself on a short list of the franchise's best relief pitchers ever. Now, I'll use some numbers to define how short that list really is. Among pitchers who totaled at least 100 career innings as Marlins, Scott ranks third all-time with a 162 ERA+ (100 represents league average). He trails former Fish ace Kevin Brown (176 ERA+) and Bryan Morris (166 ERA+). Although Morris pitched exclusively in relief like Scott did, he only had one full-length season in Miami (2015) and often handled low-leverage situations. Also, his run prevention was deceiving because it didn't account for Morris' struggles with inherited baserunners—he allowed 38% of them to score, compared to Scott's 22% mark. Scott ranks third in win probability added among relievers in Marlins history. WPA is a cumulative stat, rewarding both clutch success and volume of work. The only names ahead of Scott (Robb Nen and AJ Ramos) and the two directly behind him (Steve Cishek and Antonio Alfonseca) had 100-plus innings pitched more than him. The peak seasons of Bryan Harvey in 1993 and Armando Benítez in 2004 were arguably more valuable than what Scott did in 2023 because they were full-time closers with sub-2.00 ERAs. However, their encore performances were underwhelming, putting up replacement-level stats and missing chunks of those campaigns due to injury. Meanwhile, Scott somehow got even better to position himself as the most sought-after relief arm on the trade market. The Marlins career leader in WPA and saves (108), Nen also did well during the 1997 postseason to help secure the team's first World Series title. He still has the strongest résumé in the franchise's bullpen GOAT conversation, but I would put Scott's right behind him. 745f1362-e81fe94a-53e97fc8-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 Best of luck to Tanner Scott down the stretch of the 2024 season in San Diego. During his pending free agency this winter, he ought to be richly rewarded for his recent dominance. View full article

The lone constant in the Marlins starting rotation this season, Rogers has reinvented himself into a steady finesse pitcher. Now, he's going to a World Series contender in exchange for big league-ready hitters Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers. Hours prior to the 2024 MLB trade deadline, the Miami Marlins reached an agreement to send left-hander Trevor Rogers to the Baltimore Orioles, as first reported by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. O's infield prospect Connor Norby and outfielder Kyle Stowers are coming to Miami in return. The deal is now official. The version of Rogers that had ace potential has not been seen in three years. The lefty's fastball velocity has declined significantly since his All-Star selection, from sitting in the mid-90s as a rookie to maxing out at 95.7 mph this season (his four-seamer typically sits 90-93). In his age-26 campaign, Rogers has posted a 4.53 ERA, 4.42 FIP and 1.53 WHIP in 105 ⅓ innings, making each of his 21 scheduled starts. That availability is notable because no other Marlins pitcher has made more than 13 starts. He had been trending in the right direction entering the deadline, following up a 6.11 ERA through 10 starts with a 3.32 ERA in 11 outings since then. Even so, he lacks a putaway pitch, ranking in the 19th percentile of MLB qualifiers in whiff rate, which applies a lot of pressure on the defense behind him. The Orioles have a slightly above-average defense this season in terms of both defensive runs saved and outs above average. Rogers' contractual situation strongly contributed to his trade market appeal. His salary this season is only $1.53M. Even with a healthy and effective August/September, he figures to earn less than $5M in 2025 via arbitration. He'll be arbitration-eligible yet again in 2026. The Marlins selected Rogers with the 13th overall pick of the 2017 MLB Draft. They are the only organization he's ever known during his professional career. Both Ken Rosenthal and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that the Marlins were entertaining offers for Rogers entering deadline day. SNY's Andy Martino identified the New York Mets as one of the teams involved. A source tells Fish On First that the Houston Astros also had interest in Rogers prior to acquiring Yusei Kikuchi for their rotation instead. In addition to Rogers and Kikuchi, veteran starting pitchers who have changed teams in recent days include Erick Fedde, Michael Lorenzen and Frankie Montas. The 24-year-old Norby was Baltimore's seventh-ranked prospect, according to Baseball America. He'll be even higher in the Marlins system, though he shouldn't remain prospect-eligible for long: he has posted a 121 wRC+ over parts of three seasons at Triple-A, including a 134 wRC+ in 2024. He ought to become Miami's regular second baseman, starting alongside shortstop Xavier Edwards. Stowers, 26, graduated from prospect eligibility. He has put up a 122 wRC+ at Triple-A in his career. Stowers has one minor league option remaining beyond the 2024 season (Norby has two). The lefty hitter's fit on the active roster becomes clearer if Bryan De La Cruz gets traded by 6:00 p.m. ET. More updates to come... View full article

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. These notes apply to the first game of Miami's road series against the Tampa Bay Rays. View full article

Since arriving in Miami via a deadline deal three years ago, De La Cruz has been the offensive equivalent of an innings-eater. But the Marlins weren't interested in retaining him for his upcoming arbitration years. I'd consider this to be the weirdest of the six trades orchestrated by the Miami Marlins on Tuesday. Bryan De La Cruz has been dealt to the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for prospects RHP Jun-Seok Shim and INF Garret Forrester. De La Cruz was an overlooked Triple-A player in the Houston Astros organization when the Marlins acquired him prior to the 2021 deadline in exchange for a rental Yimi García. He made his MLB debut on July 31 of that year. Since then, DLC leads all Marlins players in the following categories: Games played (429) Plate appearances (1,646) Hits (394) Home runs (55) Walks (101) Runs batted in (190) Although De La Cruz has exceeded initial expectations at the plate, he's become a liability in the field. In 2023, his only full-length season as an everyday player, he accrued minus-9 defensive runs saved and minus-10 runs of fielding value, per Baseball Savant. This season, his playing time has been split between the corner outfield spots and designated hitter. He continues to rate as a below-average defender in those limited reps. In separate pre-trade deadline deals, the Marlins acquired upper-minors sluggers Agustín Ramírez, Deyvison De Los Santos and Kyle Stowers. Perhaps acquiring them made the affable veteran more expendable long term, but it's not like there was any urgency to do this now. DLC is under club control through 2027. It's unclear who the Pittsburgh Pirates were even bidding against. They were the only team linked to De La Cruz through The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal and other pre-deadline reports. If the name Jun-Seok Shim looks vaguely familiar, he was believed to be part of preseason negotiations between these teams that revolved around Edward Cabrera. The South Korean right-hander is missing the entire 2024 minor league season with a shoulder injury. From Eric Longenhagen's midseason report where he ranked Shim 30th among top Pirates prospects: When healthy, Shim’s fastball sits 95 with above-average life. His slow, mid-70s curveball is easy to identify out of his hand, but it has lovely shape and depth of break, so perhaps it can be sculpted into a more traditional big league breaking ball because of his proclivity for spin. Opinions on Shim vary because he offers less physical projection than is typical for a 20-year-old pitcher, but there’s big arm speed here and big riding life to Shim’s fastball. The effects of a pro strength and conditioning program might kick-start him down the path toward finding a more consistent release and sustaining the big velocity as a pro starter, which he might even be able to focus on during this injury rehab period. Pittsburgh's third-round pick from the 2023 MLB Draft, Forrester has split defensive reps between catcher and the corner infield spots. The right-handed hitter has homered only once through 47 MiLB games, albeit in pitcher-friendly environments (131 wRC+). ZW4zMlpfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0IxZFpBZ0VHVmdJQURnTlJVd0FBQkZkZUFGaFJXd1VBVXdOUVZWWUZWQUpSVTFOVg==.mp4 The Marlins will be giving Forrester his first taste of High-A ball, assigning him to the Beloit Sky Carp. View full article