Marlins trade Trevor Rogers to Orioles

Hours prior to the 2024 MLB trade deadline, the Miami Marlins reached an agreement to send left-hander Trevor Rogers to the Baltimore Orioles, as first reported by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. O's infield prospect Connor Norby and outfielder Kyle Stowers are coming to Miami in return. The deal is now official.

The version of Rogers that had ace potential has not been seen in three years. The lefty's fastball velocity has declined significantly since his All-Star selection, from sitting in the mid-90s as a rookie to maxing out at 95.7 mph this season (his four-seamer typically sits 90-93).

In his age-26 campaign, Rogers has posted a 4.53 ERA, 4.42 FIP and 1.53 WHIP in 105 ⅓ innings, making each of his 21 scheduled starts. That availability is notable because no other Marlins pitcher has made more than 13 starts. He had been trending in the right direction entering the deadline, following up a 6.11 ERA through 10 starts with a 3.32 ERA in 11 outings since then. Even so, he lacks a putaway pitch, ranking in the 19th percentile of MLB qualifiers in whiff rate, which applies a lot of pressure on the defense behind him. The Orioles have a slightly above-average defense this season in terms of both defensive runs saved and outs above average.

Rogers' contractual situation strongly contributed to his trade market appeal. His salary this season is only $1.53M. Even with a healthy and effective August/September, he figures to earn less than $5M in 2025 via arbitration. He'll be arbitration-eligible yet again in 2026.

The Marlins selected Rogers with the 13th overall pick of the 2017 MLB Draft. They are the only organization he's ever known during his professional career.

Both Ken Rosenthal and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that the Marlins were entertaining offers for Rogers entering deadline day. SNY's Andy Martino identified the New York Mets as one of the teams involved. A source tells Fish On First that the Houston Astros also had interest in Rogers prior to acquiring Yusei Kikuchi for their rotation instead.

In addition to Rogers and Kikuchi, veteran starting pitchers who have changed teams in recent days include Erick Fedde, Michael Lorenzen and Frankie Montas.

The 24-year-old Norby was Baltimore's seventh-ranked prospect, according to Baseball America. He'll be even higher in the Marlins system, though he shouldn't remain prospect-eligible for long: he has posted a 121 wRC+ over parts of three seasons at Triple-A, including a 134 wRC+ in 2024. He ought to become Miami's regular second baseman, starting alongside shortstop Xavier Edwards.

Stowers, 26, graduated from prospect eligibility. He has put up a 122 wRC+ at Triple-A in his career. Stowers has one minor league option remaining beyond the 2024 season (Norby has two). The lefty hitter's fit on the active roster becomes clearer if Bryan De La Cruz gets traded by 6:00 p.m. ET.

More updates to come...