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Everything posted by Ely Sussman
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Offishial news, 12/13/23: Absurd trades; ZiPS projections; Castano to KBO
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
Marlins Podcast Episodes Tuesday’s winter ball notes: In the Dominican Republic, 2B Vidal Bruján went 2-for-4 with 1 RBI and 2B José Devers went 2-for-4. In Puerto Rico, C Jan Mercado went 0-for-3 with a walk. Mercado's .096 batting average is the lowest among all winter ball players with a minimum of 50 at-bats. He's hitless in the month of December.Best of luck to Daniel Castano, who will be playing for the NC Dinos of the Korea Baseball Organization. Castano spent the last six seasons in the Marlins organization, pitching only three innings in the majors in 2023. The KBO gives him an opportunity to be a starter and an $850,000 salary (even better pay than he would have received as a big leaguer). He'll hope to emulate Erick Fedde, the struggling American who parlayed a dominant season with the Dinos into a $15 million deal with the White Sox.https://www.instagram.com/p/C0yRb_Hy88F/?hl=en&e=1441a240-1a86-4632-a579-86eab9458145&g=5Elsewhere around baseball, Jung Hoo Lee (6/$113M) signed with the Giants, Seth Lugo (3/$45M) and Chris Stratton (2/$8M) signed with the Royals, Rowdy Tellez (1/$3.2M) signed with the Pirates, Dylan Floro (1/$2.25M) signed with the Nationals and Cooper Criswell (1/$1M) signed with the Red Sox. Ronny Mauricio suffered a torn right ACL while playing in the Dominican Winter League. That figures to sideline the young Mets infielder for most (if not all) of the 2024 season. Participating in the same league, Pirates catcher Endy Rodriguez damaged his UCL on a swing, requiring reconstructive surgery that rules him out for next year, the team announced.Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs released his 2024 ZiPS projections for the Marlins. The numbers below represent wins above replacement. Szymborski also listed the top near-age comps for each player, including Jesús Luzardo as David Price/Vida Blue/Steve Carlton, Eury Pérez as Denny McLain/Dennis Eckersley/José Fernández and Jazz Chisholm Jr. as Glenallen Hill/Wally Judnich/Andre Dawson.Sandy Alcantara (Tommy John surgery) is determined to rehab "as quickly as possible," he tells FOF's Kevin Barral. Keep our injury and rehab tracker bookmarked for the latest updates on him and other Marlins players.I satirized the goofballs who devise and share illogical hypothetical trades via Baseball Trade Values by highlighting five especially absurd proposals that were validated by their simulator.Anthony Bender, Nick Fortes, Braxton Garrett and Jesús Luzardo attended Monday's Miami Dolphins game together.As if Eury Pérez wasn't easy enough to identify in public, the 6'8" right-hander has inked his left leg from the knee down to demonstrate his Dominican pride. Photo by Kevin Barral/Fish On First-
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5 absurd Marlins deals that Baseball Trade Values validates
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
For years, I've been using Baseball Trade Values, particularly their trade simulator. In the pre-BTV era, it was often difficult to quickly compare the relative values of players when they have vastly different MLB track records and contractual situations. Their propriety formula distills thousands of active major leaguers and minor leaguers into a single number, approximating their surplus value in dollars. I recommend it...as long as you simulate responsibly. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate that mocking "fair" trades continues to be difficult. BTV is occasionally outdated or simply off the mark on certain players. More importantly, aligning the values on both sides is only part of the battle! Proposals ought to help the teams involved actually accomplish something and complement what they already have. If you ignore realistic scenarios and just focus on ways to hypothetically make a team better, you can have a lot of fun. Let's try that for the Miami Marlins. The only players I decided were off limits when cooking up these proposals: players with full no-trade protection (Mike Trout, Salvador Pérez, Giancarlo Stanton, etc.); major league free agents who have signed this offseason (not eligible to be traded yet); and extremely expensive players whose salaries and/or total guaranteed contracts are incompatible with the frugal Marlins. Each of the following deals were "validated" by the BTV trade simulator as of December 12, meaning the values of the players at the time fell within their model's margin for error. Royals trade Maikel García to the Marlins for Steven Okert, Jordan Groshans, Jhon Cabral, Ryan Jensen and Victor Victor Mesa García is already an average-ish MLB third baseman who could likely become an average-ish MLB shortstop if he were on a team with an opening at that position. He still has six years of club control ahead of him. Respectfully, the Marlins would not miss any of the players being sent to Kansas City. Okert is their fourth-best left-handed reliever and he's out of minor league options. Groshans continues to slide down the defensive spectrum and still hasn't figured out how to tap into his power during games. Baseball America included Cabral on their 2023 midseason Marlins Top 30 prospects list despite being incapable of throwing strikes in rookie ball—BTV seems to have juiced his value based solely on that bold editorial decision. Jensen was a recent waiver claim. I'm surprised the Marlins haven't released Mesa by now. https://fishonfirst.com/news/victor-victor-mesa-abandons-marlins/Blue Jays trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Arjun Nimmala to the Marlins for Anthony Bender Vladdy tied for the MLB lead with 48 home runs in 2021. He's been trending in the wrong direction since then, but is only entering his age-25 season!!! Although the Marlins would be hopeless to sign him long term in the event of a rebound, they'd jump at this buy-low opportunity, especially when the package also contains a top 2023 draft pick. Nimmala has an extraordinary ceiling and would unequivocally take over as Miami's best position player prospect. Inexplicably, BTV values Anthony Bender highly enough to green-light this proposal. I was all about #BenderMania in early 2021. He held opponents without an earned run through his first 21 MLB games. In 61 appearances after that, Bender was totally unremarkable (3.94 ERA, 4.13 FIP and 0.27 WPA) and then he underwent Tommy John surgery. I'm not even confident in him making the Marlins Opening Day roster. Mets trade Starling Marte, Marco Vargas and Ronald Hernández to the Marlins for Avisaíl García It's a bad contract swap that would feel awfully good for Marlins fans. Marte's sub-replacement-level 2023 season was preceded by an All-Star campaign. Even if there has been a tangible degradation of athleticism since his Marlins days, Marte's hitting prowess gives him a path to being impactful again (health permitting). Peter Bendix gets to avenge one of Kim Ng's most notorious gaffes by reacquiring Vargas and Hernández (sent to New York in the David Robertson trade). Despite being considerably younger than Marte, García will have a much harder time living up to the back half of his contract due to his swing-and-miss issues. He played only 135 games over the last two seasons. Braves trade Sean Murphy to the Marlins for A.J. Puk I realize that Murphy's bat was impotent after the All-Star break. However, during the first half of the same season, he was not far behind Ronald Acuña Jr. in the NL MVP conversation. He is, by any measure, an above-average MLB starting catcher who also happens to be under contract through his prime years, never exceeding a $15M salary through 2029. It seems to be a blatant BTV error that his surplus value has been lowered from $51.3M to $21.7M over the past year. Puk was traded straight up for JJ Bleday in early 2023. Phillies trade J.T. Realmuto and $11 million cash to the Marlins for Sixto Sánchez Reversing course on a 2019 blockbuster! Presented without further comment. Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images-
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The Offishial Show: Mid-Offseason Marlins Opening Day Roster Projection
Ely Sussman posted an article in Podcasts
Ely Sussman endorses the Marlins' acquisition of Christian Bethancourt, then discusses how he and 25 other players would fit together on the club's Opening Day roster. Of course, this is assuming no additional offseason moves. Subscribe to the Fish On First YouTube channel to watch video versions of every episode of The Offishial Show. My projected roster is shown below, with "SP" denoting members of the initial starting rotation. Keep in mind, this is not what I personally want to do, but rather my educated guess for what the Peter Bendix-led Marlins would do if entering the 2024 season with only the players currently in the organization. The toughest cuts were Anthony Bender and Anthony Maldonado. Pitchers (13): RHP Huascar Brazoban, RHP Edward Cabrera (SP), RHP JT Chargois, LHP Braxton Garrett (SP), LHP Jesús Luzardo (SP), RHP Max Meyer, LHP Andrew Nardi, LHP Steven Okert, RHP Eury Pérez (SP), LHP A.J. Puk, LHP Trevor Rogers (SP), LHP Tanner Scott, RHP George Soriano Hitters (13): 2B Luis Arraez, 1B/DH Josh Bell, UTIL Jon Berti, C Christian Bethancourt, UTIL Vidal Bruján, 3B Jake Burger, OF Jazz Chisholm Jr., OF Bryan De La Cruz, IF Xavier Edwards, C Nick Fortes, OF/DH Avisaíl García, OF Dane Myers, OF Jesús Sánchez Follow Ely (@RealEly) and Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) on Twitter. Join the Marlins Discord server! Complete Miami Marlins coverage here at FishOnFirst.com. Our Fish On First podcast programming includes The Offishial Show, Fish Unfiltered, State of the Fish, Swimming Upstream, Fishology and What a Relief. All new episodes are posted to FishOnFirst.com/podcasts. You can subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Podbean, Megaphone or wherever you normally get your pods from.- 1 comment
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Offishial news, 12/11/23: New backstop Bethancourt; Dean wins derby
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
Marlins Podcast Episodes Sunday's winter ball notes: In the Dominican Republic, 3B Vidal Bruján went 0-for-2 with three walks and three stolen bases. Bruján now leads LIDOM with 19 steals. It was his first appearance of the winter at third base.The Marlins made a trade on Sunday, acquiring catcher Christian Bethancourt from the Guardians for cash considerations. I see him as an upgrade over Jacob Stallings, particularly when it comes to throwing, though his offensive ceiling is quite limited due to poor strike-zone awareness. Barring a Bryan De La Cruz trade, either he or Bethancourt will need to change their uniform number (both wore No. 14 last season).Elsewhere around baseball, Shohei Ohtani (10/$700M) signed with the Dodgers, Will Smith (1/$5M) signed with the Royals, Andrew Chafin (1/$4.75M) signed with the Tigers and Austin Hedges (1/$4M) signed with the Guardians.https://fishonfirst.com/non-marlins/shohei-ohtani-free-agency-dodgers/Today at LoanDepot Park, the Marlins are hosting a Holiday Wishes Party for local students, featuring Sandy Alcantara (and Billy the Marlin, of course). Follow Kevin Barral for live coverage.Kevin did a deeper dive on each of the Marlins' Rule 5 Draft selections.Marlins IF Breyias Dean won the Don't Blink Home Run Derby in Paradise. Dean is an unlikely champ considering his age (18) and modest homer total in the Dominican Summer League last season (3 HR in 200 PA). Watch Dean's final derby round on the Fish On First YouTube channel and help us reach the 2,000-subscriber milestone! Photo by 10th Year Seniors -
Marlins finally address catcher, trade for Christian Bethancourt
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
The second Miami Marlins trade of the Peter Bendix era involves the acquisition of yet another former player of his. The Marlins sent cash considerations to the Cleveland Guardians on Sunday in exchange for catcher Christian Bethancourt, as first reported by Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase. The trade has been made official. A decade ago, Bethancourt was a borderline Top 100 MLB prospect in the Atlanta Braves farm system. It has been a wild ride since then that's taken him to eight other major league organizations, South Korea and even an experiment as a two-way player (yes, there's a Shohei Ohtani joke to be made somewhere in there). Last season with the Tampa Bay Rays, Bethancourt slashed .225/.254/.381 (74 wRC+) in a career-high 104 games played. He started at catcher 89 times and his teammates had ample success throwing to him (3.60 ERA). Bethancourt got off to a hot start offensively in 2023. He homered six times in his first 21 games. However, he did so only five times in 83 games after that. The Guardians just claimed Bethancourt off waivers from Tampa Bay a month ago, but he became expendable when they reached an agreement with free agent Austin Hedges on Sunday. Bethancourt is a volatile player overall, but if nothing else, he can be trusted to help the Marlins deter base-stealers. His 1.87 second pop time in 2023 was second among all MLB catchers behind only J.T. Realmuto (1.83 sec). The realistic best-case scenario for Bethancourt is that he recaptures his 2022 form. He accrued 1.8 fWAR in 101 games with a .252/.283/.409 slash line (100 wRC+). Even including his 2023 regression, this is a clear upgrade at the plate over incumbent veteran catcher Jacob Stallings, who the Marlins non-tendered. It's also a cost-saving change. Stallings had been in line for approximately $3.6M in 2024 via arbitration, according to MLB Trade Rumors. Bethancourt's projected salary is $2.3M. It will be his age-32 season. Bethancourt will be arbitration-eligible one final time in 2025. With two months to go until spring training begins, Bethancourt and Nick Fortes project to be Miami's Opening Day catching tandem. That's not set in stone, of course (Fortes has minor league options remaining). The Marlins are "still looking via free agency" for catcher reinforcements, per Craig Mish of SportsGrid. The Marlins 40-man roster is now full. Any more additions—and we fully expect there to be more—will require corresponding moves. Photo by Rob Foldy/Getty Images -
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The biggest MLB offseason domino has fallen. As announced by the player himself, Shohei Ohtani is signing a 10-year, $700 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Ohtani's deal will include more guaranteed money than any other in sports history, though most of it is deferred, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan. In 2023, Ohtani led the majors with 9.0 fWAR, accumulating 6.6 as a hitter and 2.4 as a pitcher. He became the only player ever to win his league's MVP award unanimously multiple times (he also did so in 2021). Ohtani has been a full-fledged two-way player for the last three seasons, but he'll be confined to position player duties in 2024 while recovering from elbow surgery. Even so, we're talking about a phenom who just led all qualified hitters with a 180 wRC+ while homering 44 times and added above-average baserunning. With Ohtani taking over as DH of the Dodgers, sure seems like the door is closed for J.D. Martinez to re-sign with them. Martinez slashed .271/.321/.572 (135 wRC+) in 113 games for the Dodgers during his age-35 season. The South Florida native would be an intriguing short-term pickup for the Marlins. There's no evidence that the Marlins negotiated with Ohtani at any point during his free agent process. Teams linked to him that fell short in the bidding include the Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Angels, New York Mets, San Francisco Giants and Toronto Blue Jays. It's particularly painful news for Blue Jays fans after J.P. Hoornstra of Dodgers Nation erroneously reported on Friday that Ohtani was signing with Toronto. Ohtani previously played at LoanDepot Park in 2022 as a member of the Angels and for Samurai Japan during the 2023 World Baseball Classic. The Marlins will host the Dodgers during their final homestand of the 2024 regular season, from Sept. 17-19. Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images
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I would want to hold onto Rogers for another year too, but he's pretty far removed from his rookie success at this point. Getting multiple solid big leaguers with several years of club control left would at least be worth thinking about.
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Marlins Podcast Episodes Thursday's winter ball notes: In the Dominican Republic, 2B Vidal Bruján went 0-for-4. In Venezuela, LF Javier Sanoja went 3-for-4 with two stolen bases.Elsewhere around baseball, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that Shohei Ohtani's free agent decision could be coming "as early as today." Jorge López (1/$2M) signed with the Mets. López lasted barely a month with the Marlins, allowing 29 baserunners in only 11 ⅔ innings of relief. Here is an update on the whereabouts of last season's Marlins players, only four of whom have landed with new teams for the 2024 season:No home yet for Jorge Soler. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that former Marlins hitting coach Brant Brown "grew fond of Soler" last season and might vouch for him as new Mariners bench coach and offensive coordinator. However, it's not his money to spend—Seattle has limited payroll flexibility, already making two trades this offseason to dump contracts.Kevin Barral wrote about the rumor that the Marlins are in pursuit of free agent Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Most fans don't seem enthused!Embedded at the top of the page, Dan Noffsinger had a fascinating conversation with Joe Frisaro that included stories from his tenure in the Marlins front office. During the 2000s and early 2010s, Noffsinger led the franchise's previously non-existent analytics department. He recalls that then-team president David Samson wrote the framework of Giancarlo Stanton's $325 million contract extension on hotel stationery and barely had to change anything when negotiating with Stanton.Marlins prospects Breyias Dean, Cherif Neymour and Toby Simmons are participating in the Don't Blink Home Run Derby in Paradise at 1:00 p.m. ET on Saturday. Jazz Chisholm Jr. won't be in the derby, but two months since undergoing turf toe surgery, good to see him moving around well. Lastly, I think you'll enjoy this extended Pablo López interview with Nick Pollack of Pitcher List, taking you inside an All-Star pitcher's mind and the intent behind every pitch he threw during a start.
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On a minor league deal, sure. No risk there. The fact he cleared waivers before being released shows he wouldn't have the leverage to demand anything more than that.
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It takes pretty unique circumstances for a hitter to make sense as a Rule 5 pick. I thought Troy was an exception like Noda. Don't understand how every team could be so skeptical of him.
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Completely agree on Johnston. It was a mistake and they got away with it. Hopefully they take advantage of it and bring him up when the right situation presents itself during the season.
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Marlins Podcast Episodes Wednesday’s winter ball notes: In Venezuela, RF Javier Sanoja went 1-for-4. Left unprotected by the Marlins, SS Nasim Nuñez was selected by the Nationals in the major league phase of the Rule 5 Draft. Nats general manager Mike Rizzo says Nuñez won't get many at-bats in 2024, but his speed and defense off the bench could be impactful enough to justify holding a roster spot. Miami loaded up on five players in the minor league phase: OF Yeral Martinez (from the Mets), OF Marty Costes (Astros), IF Sean Roby (Giants), LHP Adam Laskey (Cubs) and RHP Julio Dilone (Mariners).Matt Andriese and Devin Smeltzer have both signed minor league deals with the Marlins that include spring training invites. Andriese has a lifetime 4.63 ERA, 4.21 FIP and 1.33 WHIP in 509 MLB innings (217 G/50 GS). He spent last season as a starter with the Dodgers' Triple-A affiliate. Smeltzer, of course, was with the Marlins organization in 2023. The lefty had four separate stints on the active roster and also threw a seven-inning no-hitter with Triple-A Jacksonville.A.J. Puk will come to Jupiter as a potential starting rotation candidate for the Marlins, our own Isaac Azout reports. Puk had been preparing to start for the Athletics last year prior to being traded. He entered professional baseball as a starter, but moved to the bullpen following Tommy John surgery in 2018 and has stayed there ever since. While working for the Rays, Peter Bendix saw firsthand how longtime relievers could defy conventional wisdom and succeed in the rotation, most notably Jeffrey Springs and most recently Zack Littell.The Marlins and the Caribbean Professional Baseball Confederation announced a multi-year exclusive partnership for the broadcast rights of the Caribbean Series, giving the Marlins exclusive rights across all platforms globally excluding the confederation's countries. Interesting that it's a multi-year partnership even though LoanDepot Park is only scheduled to host the event in 2024.Elsewhere around baseball, Juan Soto was traded to the Yankees in a seven-player blockbuster, one of those other players being former Marlins prospect Michael King. Eduardo Rodriguez (4/$80M) signed with the Diamondbacks, Jeimer Candelario (3/$45M) signed with the Reds and Craig Kimbrel (1/$13M) signed with the Orioles.On the latest episode of , we reacted to the Rule 5 results, the stretched-out Puk experiment and more. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! "In a lot of ways, it's not terribly dissimilar to another week in the offseason," Bendix said about the Winter Meetings (via Christina De Nicola, MLB.com). "I think we learned a lot more about the market, about what to expect, and so much of this is just gaining information so that we can understand how best to attack things." With Nuñez going to the Nats, the Marlins have even fewer viable internal options who can play shortstop on a consistent basis. I watched tape on Xavier Edwards from 2023 (and also a bit from 2022) to get a feel for how he'd do there.https://fishonfirst.com/analysis/xavier-edwards-shortstop-defense/Photo by Chris Coduto/MLB Photos
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Can Xavier Edwards play shortstop? Let's watch his Triple-A tape
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
The Miami Marlins made it farther than expected in 2023 despite lousy shortstop production. They got a .226/.265/.313 slash line from the position (MLB-worst 55 wRC+) with only seven home runs to go along with average-ish defense. Understandably, the club let primary SS Joey Wendle leave via free agency without putting up much of a fight. Since Wendle's departure, the Marlins have traded for Vidal Bruján and signed Tristan Gray to a minor league deal. They retained utility man Jon Berti and prospect Jacob Amaya, who started frequently at SS for Triple-A Jacksonville last season. Double-A Pensacola standout Nasim Nuñez would've been a non-roster invitee at big league camp, but he was selected by the Washington Nationals in Wednesday's Rule 5 Draft. There's another internal shortstop candidate who should not be overlooked, per Fish On First's Isaac Azout: Xavier Edwards. Edwards' combination of contact skills and speed could make him the best offensive player of those mentioned above. The question is his defense, and more specifically, his arm. During his first season in the Marlins organization, X initially split time between second base and center field (a brand new position for him). When the CF experiment ended in late July, he began getting occasional starts at third base, though only four appearances at shortstop. The lack of reps show how skeptical the Marlins were about his viability as a SS. However, maybe the new-look front office has a different evaluation of the 24-year-old or a plan to help him improve. Now's not the time for a deep dive on Edwards' defense. There has been hardly any shortstop movement this offseason, so the Marlins still have ample time and opportunities to address the position via trade or free agency (Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic just linked them to Isiah Kiner-Falefa, for example). Let's just take a glimpse of what Edwards looks like over there. I've compiled 11 throws made by Edwards as a Triple-A shortstop. Most are from him as a Jumbo Shrimp player in 2023, but I also included three from when he played against Jacksonville as a Durham Bull in 2022. They are loosely ordered from most routine to most difficult. https://videopress.com/v/TaRdx3ou?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&posterUrl=https%3A%2F%2Ffishonfirst.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2023%2F12%2Fxavier-edwards-ss-throw-8_mp4_dvd.original.jpg&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=truehttps://videopress.com/v/IPeViAyu?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&posterUrl=https%3A%2F%2Ffishonfirst.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2023%2F12%2Fxavier-edwards-ss-throw-4_mp4_std.original.jpg&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=truehttps://videopress.com/v/Lsurwmxc?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&posterUrl=https%3A%2F%2Ffishonfirst.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2023%2F12%2Fxavier-edwards-ss-throw-7_mp4_dvd.original.jpg&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=truehttps://videopress.com/v/0amdzhcL?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&posterUrl=https%3A%2F%2Ffishonfirst.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2023%2F12%2Fxavier-edwards-ss-throw-11_mp4_hd.original.jpg&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=truehttps://videopress.com/v/ZFBVT64E?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&posterUrl=https%3A%2F%2Ffishonfirst.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2023%2F12%2Fxavier-edwards-ss-throw-9_mp4_dvd.original-1.jpg&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=truehttps://videopress.com/v/K3QQaTyN?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&posterUrl=https%3A%2F%2Ffishonfirst.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2023%2F12%2Fxavier-edwards-ss-throw-6_mp4_dvd.original.jpg&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=truehttps://videopress.com/v/fA3KfKOK?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&posterUrl=https%3A%2F%2Ffishonfirst.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2023%2F12%2Fxavier-edwards-ss-throw-10_mp4_hd.original.jpg&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=truehttps://videopress.com/v/2U3v9i4I?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&posterUrl=https%3A%2F%2Ffishonfirst.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2023%2F12%2Fxavier-edwards-ss-throw-2_mp4_dvd.original.jpg&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=truehttps://videopress.com/v/T2X2ran9?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&posterUrl=https%3A%2F%2Ffishonfirst.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2023%2F12%2Fxavier-edwards-ss-throw-5_mp4_dvd.original.jpg&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=truehttps://videopress.com/v/spKCxsrQ?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&posterUrl=https%3A%2F%2Ffishonfirst.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2023%2F12%2Fxavier-edwards-ss-throw-3_mp4_avc_240p.original.jpg&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=truehttps://videopress.com/v/IBqXmA7D?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&posterUrl=https%3A%2F%2Ffishonfirst.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2023%2F12%2Fxavier-edwards-ss-throw-1_mp4_std.original.jpg&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=trueEdwards' arm strength is severely limited. All of these throws made it to the first baseman's glove on the fly, but took a long time to get there. The maximum velocity of Edwards' 2023 shortstop throws was 75.4 mph and his max in the majors when playing 2B/CF was 78.0 mph. For context, 86.3 mph was the average for shortstops, according to Statcast's "arm strength" metric, which uses the top 5% of throws made for qualified shortstops. David Fletcher (Angels) ranked dead last among qualifiers at 77.0 mph. Old friend Joey Wendle was near the bottom of the leaderboard at 80.1 mph. I'll place the other plays involving Edwards as a shortstop here: https://videopress.com/v/HLFalQqa?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&posterUrl=https%3A%2F%2Ffishonfirst.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2023%2F12%2Fxavier-edwards-ss-pop-up_mp4_avc_240p.original.jpg&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=truehttps://videopress.com/v/IgiyXDou?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&posterUrl=https%3A%2F%2Ffishonfirst.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2023%2F12%2Fxavier-edwards-ss-catch-tag_mp4_hd.original.jpg&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=truehttps://videopress.com/v/1OMpDHg9?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&posterUrl=https%3A%2F%2Ffishonfirst.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2023%2F12%2Fxavier-edwards-ss-flip_mp4_hd.original-1.jpg&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=truehttps://videopress.com/v/veGkudXj?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&posterUrl=https%3A%2F%2Ffishonfirst.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2023%2F12%2Fxavier-edwards-ss-tag_mp4_std.original.jpg&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=truehttps://videopress.com/v/LvS9N8iX?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&posterUrl=https%3A%2F%2Ffishonfirst.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2023%2F12%2Fxavier-edwards-ss-dive-for-grounder_mp4_hd.original.jpg&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=trueLooks good when applying tags, though he would get more opportunities to do that as a second baseman. Shortstops typically cover the bag on stolen base attempts when there's a left-handed hitter up (40.2% of all MLB steal attempts in 2023). This quick review suggests to me that Edwards could at least be an emergency shortstop. That helps his case for making the Marlins active roster considering Luis Arraez will frequently be blocking him from playing second base. I'll revisit this topic in greater detail as spring training approaches. Photo by Danis Sosa/Fish On First -
If there was more of Sherman's money to spend or better prospects to trade, then that would be fine. Bendix doesn't have those alternatives though.
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- xavier edwards
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