How can Sandy Alcántara regain his Cy Young form?

On the surface, it may seem Sandy Alcántara just naturally regressed during his 2023 season after winning the NL Cy Young award the year before. His FIP went up to 4.03 compared to 2.99, his ERA jumped from 2.28 to 4.14, and he was walking a bit more and striking out less. But the difference between these seasons wasn't simply his luck evening out.

To start, Alcántara's devastating changeup is by far his best pitch. It is his put-away pitch when he needs a strikeout. He throws it hard enough and commands it well enough to land it for a strike if needed. Even before the injury, this weapon quite clearly took a step back. After racking up a plus-24 total run value in 2022—which led all of Major League Baseball—it became a liability in 2023 (minus-5 run value).

My theory as to why is all based on his sinker command and trouble vs. lefties.

Alcántara's sinker and changeup go hand and hand. A clear look here thanks to Baseball Savant's movement profile shows how similar in location and break his sinker and changeup are. This similar movement profile allows his changeup to play off of his sinker as it has a sharp break milliseconds before crossing home plate with only an 8 mph difference on average. 

Another major difference is Alcántara's sinker location. It was in the zone 2% more often (57% overall) in 2023 and it was located arm side 52% of the time compared to 59% in 2022. Leaving a sinker over the middle of the zone more often creates less separation behind the changeup and sinker, allowing hitters to recognize whether the pitch is a changeup that will fall out of the zone or a sinker, which will stay in the zone.

Although Baseball Savant will say Alcántara's sinker was more valuable in 2023 in terms of run value, I disagree that the pitch was actually better. Its purpose is to get weak, groundball contact. Instead, he saw an increase in home runs allowed in 2023 because his sinker got hit harder and in the air. In 2022, his sinker was barreled 6% of the time compared to 2% his Cy Young year. There was an 8 mph jump in average exit velocity against and his home run to fly ball rate doubled. 

Alcántara does not throw a pitch that can consistently get whiffs at the top of the zone because of his poor four-seam fastball shape. Instead, his strategy is to generate weak contact on the edges of the zone with his sinker and tunnel his changeup off of that. 

One hole in Alcántara's game has been his splits vs. lefties. Comparing 2022 to 2023, he saw nearly a .200 point increase in OPS vs. lefties going from .551 OPS to a .714 OPS. 

Historically, Alcántara has never had great options vs. lefties and has had to rely on trying to jam with a sinker inside or steal a strike low and away, then come back with a changeup. His slider in particular has always been demolished vs lefties. Having a xwOBAcon north of .400 since 2021. He really does not have a consistent pitch to throw to lefties. In 2023, he started utilizing his curveball again, which he hadn't used much since his early days in 2018-2020. However, he did not use it enough to see any meaningful results. 

Trying to solve Sandy's lefty problem is a tricky one. Perhaps a sweeper inside to lefties may help, as his current slider which is effective vs. righties is much more of a "gyro" slider—it has a sharper spin to it and more of a bullet drop. Many other pitchers have adopted a two-slider approach. Something fascinating is that in 2022, left-handed batters had a .373 OPS vs. his changeup, while in 2023 they had a .725 OPS. 

I am of the belief this ties back into pitch tunneling and sequencing. Clearly, Alcántara can get lefties out with the changeup, but it relies heavily on sinker or four-seam fastball location since he tends to throw the four-seam to left-handers more often. 

This is an example from 2022 of Alcántara using his sinker to set up Juan Soto for a strikeout tunneling his changeup off his sinker.

Did anything change mechanically with Alcántara from 2022 to 2023? I did spot one noticeable difference: his glove position during his windup.

These first two screenshots are from two different months in 2022. Near the top of his leg kick, his glove is still wrapped around the ball.

Now compare that to 2023. In screenshots taken during the same point in his delivery, his glove is almost facing straight down rather than wrapping.

Perhaps this slight change messed with Sandy's ability to control and command pitches. Whether done intentionally or not, I'd like to see him return to his 2022 glove position. I'm sure newly hired Marlins pitching director Bill Hezel and pitching coach Daniel Moskos are already contemplating this and other slight tweaks that could make a huge difference.

Sandy Alcántara at his peak is one of the greatest pitchers in Marlins history and a joy to watch every five days. Whether it means trying a new sweeper vs. lefties, changing mechanical or mental queues, or trying to optimize his sequencing and tunneling in general, there's hope he can get back to that level. It all starts with being fully healthy. If he is, Alcántara is poised for another big season in 2025.