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  • Miami Marlins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

    Follow the latest Miami Marlins trade and free agent rumors, along with quick notes on the big league club, the minor leagues and the draft.
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    Ely Sussman
    The Miami Marlins front office is under significant pressure entering the MLB trade deadline, writes Jim Bowden of The Athletic. Hard to disagree with that—they are thin on tradeable assets and must find a way to flip them into impactful prospects, especially Jazz Chisholm Jr. 
    "Chisholm probably won’t get traded to the Yankees or Phillies," Bowden reports, "because many evaluators question how he would perform in those markets and fit in their clubhouses. Instead, most execs think he’ll end up being moved to the Pirates, Mariners or Giants."
    I frankly had not given much thought to San Francisco until now, but maybe! Thairo Estrada has had a disappointing year as their second baseman, posting the lowest walk rate among qualified MLB hitters and riding a 5-for-50 slump entering the All-Star break. Like Chisholm, Estrada is under club control through 2026. However, he could be non-tendered this offseason if he continues on his current trajectory.
    Coming out of the break with a 47-50 record, I suspect the Giants need to get on a hot streak before proceeding with a Chisholm acquisition or any other "buying" move.
    Ely Sussman
    From the "around the basepaths" section in Bob Nightengale's weekly USA Today column: "The Miami Marlins have been hoping they could trade center fielder Jazz Chisholm all season, with the Seattle Mariners emerging as the favorites to land him."
    It's a timely report considering that Chisholm played second base for the Marlins on Saturday, snapping a two-year drought since he last occupied the position. Julio Rodríguez has center field covered in Seattle, so 2B is the logical fit for Chisholm there. Mariners second basemen are collectively slashing .199/.294/.307 (80 wRC+) this season with a hideous 29.8 K%.
    The Mariners are seeking their first AL West title since 2001. Less than a month ago, they held a 10-game lead in the division, but that has rapidly shrunk to one game as the Houston Astros continue to surge.
    With a farm system that's led by young, toolsy hitters—Colt Emerson, Lazaro Montes, Cole Young, Jonny Farmelo and Harry Ford—the Mariners match up well with what the Marlins are reportedly seeking to jumpstart their rebuild.
    Ely Sussman
    What a difference one year can make. The Miami Marlins were buyers at the 2023 trade deadline, taking on veteran salaries and parting with prospects to optimize their postseason chances. With the 2024 deadline approaching at the end of this month, they are "clear sellers," as Craig Mish detailed for the Miami Herald on Monday morning. "The club is expected to move multiple players on or before the deadline," Mish adds, with the assumption being that Miami seeks prospects in return.
    This will be Peter Bendix's first deadline as Marlins president of baseball operations. Perhaps it seems obvious that he would be surveying every MLB team for the best possible trade return, but Mish reports that he has brought a slight change of philosophy to the front office.
    "Miami under Bendix is open for business to everyone. Former GM Kim Ng was more restrictive on making trades to help some clubs in the NL East."
    It's a bizarre nugget considering Ng, during her first year with the Fish, dealt Adam Duvall to the Atlanta Braves to plug a hole in their outfield. Duvall played practically every day for Atlanta down the stretch en route to the 2021 World Series title. She also made a significant deal with the New York Mets last July to acquire David Robertson, though that came at the expense of two prospects (Marco Vargas and Ronald Hernández) who were several years away from even sniffing the major leagues.
    The Braves are once again poised to be deadline buyers, as are the NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies. The Mets sit at .500 and could go either way, while the Washington Nationals (42-48) will probably sell.
    Ely Sussman
    The Miami Marlins have 29 days to trade pending free agent Tanner Scott. "Considering the deadline is nearly a month away, rival clubs are reporting that the Miami Marlins want a lot for their left-handed closer," The Athletic staff posted on Monday morning.
    The report identifies the Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers as teams who "have expressed some level of interest" so far. Not coincidentally, those four are virtual locks to reach the postseason, each with playoff odds of at least 98%, per FanGraphs. While teams further down the standings may be less enthusiastic about trading potential long-term contributors for two months of Scott's production (August and September), this quartet can feel confident they'll be getting something from him during October as well.
    Just as I pointed out on June 13, The Athletic acknowledges the concern about Scott's high walk rate and the possibility he could regress following an All-Star-caliber first half of the season. Working in the Marlins' favor, though, "the limited supply of quality relievers should result in them getting a decent return."
    In 35 appearances this season, Scott has a 1.50 ERA, 3.69 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 36 innings pitched. He is peaking at the right time, having allowed runs in only one of his last 22 outings.
    Ely Sussman
    I don't find The Athletic's Jim Bowden to be particularly reliable on these sort of things, but for what it's worth:
    I surveyed more than 35 executives — including presidents of baseball operations, general managers and assistant GMs — and asked them to name the best starting pitcher, reliever and position player they think will be traded. The execs were granted anonymity so they could answer candidly. Their responses were illuminating — and in some cases surprising.
    1. Jazz Chisholm Jr., INF/OF, Marlins
    I thought Luis Robert Jr. of the White Sox would be leading this part of the poll, but he wasn’t even close. Based on the responses, the industry believes Chisholm is the position player most likely to be traded between now and July 30. Chisholm, 26, is starting his prime years and has a special combination of speed and power that many evaluators think will result in him someday joining the 30-home run/30-stolen base club. This year, he’s reached base at a .330 clip with 10 homers and 14 steals. He has a 113 OPS+. Some teams are interested in him as a center fielder and others view him as a middle infielder, where he played before a position switch last year. Either way, it sounds like he’ll be traded if Miami gets the right offer over the next five weeks. He would fit nicely with the Phillies or Giants.
    Ely Sussman
    According to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the Miami Marlins and Pittsburgh Pirates are "actively" discussing potential trades, with the Pirates focused on acquiring immediate starting rotation help. Mackey singles out Edward Cabrera as the arm that the Marlins would be most willing to move and whose combination of upside and club control would appeal to the Pirates.
    Last season, Cabrera established new career bests in innings pitched (99 ⅔), FIP (4.43) and strikeout rate (27.2%). However, his control issues were as bad as ever. He led the Marlins with 66 walks allowed despite appearing in only 22 MLB games and he was demoted to Triple-A in August even when the team was thin on rotation alternatives. The Dominican right-hander also missed part of the season with a shoulder impingement. He turns 26 in April and has no minor league options remaining.
    Mackey believes that one of the Pirates' infielders, Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales or Ji Hwan Bae, would "likely" go to Miami as the headliner of the return package. Of that trio, Peguero has the most big league shortstop experience. They each could be optioned to the minors if there isn't a fit on the Opening Day active roster.
    Personally, I'm skeptical of Cabrera's future as a starter and would be amenable to trading him now if the return is appropriate (with Pittsburgh including another asset on top of Peguero/Gonzalez/Bae).
    Mackey writes that the Pirates are also seriously considering free agent starters, so they could pivot in that direction if unable to compromise with the Marlins.
    Ely Sussman
    There are no good starting shortstop solutions left in the 2023-24 MLB free agent class (frankly, there weren't any to begin with), but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Miami Marlins are considering signing a veteran at the position. The group of free agents that they're "mulling over" includes Tim Anderson, Amed Rosario, Adalberto Mondesi and Nick Ahmed.
    Miami's Mondesi interest was previously mentioned by the New York Post's Jon Heyman last week. Unlike Mondesi, these three other names were at least on a major league field in 2023.
    Last season, Ahmed (Diamondbacks) slashed .212/.257/.303 with a 51 wRC+ and 0.0 fWAR. He was released in early September. A rumored trade target for the Fish last summer, Anderson (White Sox) slashed .245/.286/.296 with a 60 wRC+ and -0.5 fWAR. The White Sox declined Anderson's 2024 club option to make him a free agent. The "best" of the bunch, Rosario (Guardians/Dodgers) slashed .263/.305/.378 with a 88 wRC+ and 0.2 fWAR. You can compare their individual stats in greater detail on FanGraphs.
    Rosenthal didn't mention the possibility of trading for Milwaukee's Willy Adames.
    Brock Beauchamp
    The Milwaukee Brewers stunned their fans on Thursday evening by trading away ace pitcher Corbin Burnes for an MLB-ready shortstop and pitcher.
    This puts the organization at a crossroads: they traded away their best pitcher whose contract expires at the end of the season and brought back a young shortstop who needs time at the major league level. Willy Adames's contract also expires after this season and with the Brewers seemingly pushing toward a youth movement, may now be willing to listen to offers on the 28-year-old shortstop.
    In the mix is Tyler Black, another MLB-ready prospect in the Brewers system who will likely take reps at third base in 2024.
    Is this the perfect opportunity for the Marlins to shore up their needs in the middle infield?
    Brock Beauchamp
    Jon Heyman tweeted today that the Marlins are still in pursuit of a starting shortstop in 2024 and are kicking the tires on Adalberto Mondesi.
    Mondesi, now 28 years old, last played with the Kansas City Royals in 2022. Once a highly-regarded top 50 prospect, Mondesi's bat never materialized against MLB pitchers, leading to a career OPS+ of 82. Mondesi joined the Red Sox in 2023 but suffered an ACL injury and did not play during the regular season.
    The free agent shortstop market is very thin this offseason but with names like Tim Anderson and Elvis Andrus still available, one hoped to see the Marlins reaching a few rungs higher on the ladder than Mondesi.
     
    Brock Beauchamp
    Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald mentioned in a piece today that the Marlins are looking into the free agent shortstop market.
    Admittedly, this is the thinnest market in years with almost all the remaining players looking for one- or two-year contracts. Included in this group is Tim Anderson, Brandon Crawford, and Amed Rosario.
    Tim Anderson is perhaps the most intriguing name on the market, as the former White Sox shortstop had a terrible 2023 (60 OPS+) after posting a 122 OPS+ over the previous four seasons. Anderson is entering his age-31 season in 2024.
    Amed Rosario is in a similar situation to Anderson. After posting a 103 OPS+ over the 2021-2022 seasons with Cleveland, Rosario slid backward with the bat in 2023, posting an 89 OPS+ in split duties between the Guardians and Dodgers. Rosario could very well be looking for a one-year pillow contract, as 2024 is only his age-28 season.
    Ely Sussman
    Trey Mancini is coming to Marlins camp this spring on a minor league deal, as first reported by the New York Post's Jon Heyman (and confirmed by Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald).
    The Marlins have previously signed Matt Andriese, Jonathan Davis, Tristan Gray and several others as non-roster invitees, but Mancini comes with the highest profile. He has slashed .263/.328/.448 (109 wRC+) in 831 games across seven MLB seasons, accruing 6.3 fWAR.
    Best known for reaching his 35-homer peak with the 2019 Baltimore Orioles, Mancini won a World Series title with the 2022 Houston Astros. Last offseason, he signed a two-year, $14M deal with the Chicago Cubs, but got designated for assignment in August. He briefly played in Triple-A for the Cincinnati Reds organization, though they declined to call him up for their September playoff push.
    Mancini's defensive reps have been evenly split between first base and the corner outfield spots (with plenty of DH reps as well). He is below average no matter where you put him.
    Trey Mancini Career Hitting Stats Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards 2016 24 BAL AL 5 15 14 3 5 1 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 .357 .400 1.071 1.471 274 15 0 1 0 0 0 /DH   2017 25 BAL AL 147 586 543 65 159 26 4 24 78 1 0 33 139 .293 .338 .488 .826 120 265 12 6 0 4 1 73D/H9 RoY-3 2018 26 BAL AL 156 636 582 69 141 23 3 24 58 0 1 44 153 .242 .299 .416 .715 95 242 17 5 0 5 1 73D/H   2019 27 BAL AL 154 679 602 106 175 38 2 35 97 1 0 63 143 .291 .364 .535 .899 134 322 22 9 0 5 3 93D/7H   2020     Did not play in major or minor leagues (Illness) 2021 29 BAL AL 147 616 556 77 142 33 1 21 71 0 0 51 143 .255 .326 .432 .758 106 240 19 8 0 1 4 3D/H   2022 30 TOT AL 143 587 519 56 124 23 1 18 63 0 0 53 135 .239 .319 .391 .710 103 203 12 10 0 5 2 D379/H   2022 30 BAL AL 92 401 354 39 95 16 1 10 41 0 0 35 86 .268 .347 .404 .751 116 143 4 9 0 3 2 D39/7H   2022 30 HOU AL 51 186 165 17 29 7 0 8 22 0 0 18 49 .176 .258 .364 .622 76 60 8 1 0 2 0 D73/H9   2023 31 CHC NL 79 263 235 31 55 12 0 4 28 0 0 21 78 .234 .299 .336 .635 71 79 5 2 0 3 1 3DH/9   7 Yrs 831 3382 3051 407 801 156 11 129 400 2 1 265 795 .263 .328 .448 .775 110 1366 87 41 0 23 12     Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Recent production makes ex-Marlins All-Star Jorge Soler the far more desirable player. That being said, you may be surprised by how eerily similar their career stats are. Both are entering their age-32 season, too.
    Mancini's chances of cracking the Marlins Opening Day roster would be fairly strong if any one of Josh Bell, Jake Burger, Bryan De La Cruz. Avisaíl García or Jesús Sánchez were to suffer a preseason injury. For him to force the issue without a corresponding injury, he'd need to demonstrate that his 2023 power outage (4 HR in 263 PA) was an anomaly.
    Brock Beauchamp
    All quiet on the pitcher front.
    Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote this excellent write-up about both the reliever and starting pitcher winter markets. While the reliever free agent market seems to have stalled on Josh Hader (who finally signed with the Astros on Friday afternoon), Feinsand goes on to point out that the starting pitching market hasn't fared much better with several high-profile free agents still on the market, headlined by Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery.
    In a cascading effect, this has caused the starting pitcher trade market to be equally slow, so much so that one NL executive is quoted saying "I don’t think the trade market will be very hot in the next month". The Marlins have a need for offense and some expendable starting pitching. Does a frozen market on the likes of Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, and Corbin Burnes hurt or help the Marlins' chances to improve their 2024 lineup by maximizing value in one of their starting pitchers this offseason?
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