How worried should we be about Max Williams flunking the Arizona Fall League?

[Ely Sussman]

On Friday, Miami Marlins outfield prospect Max Williams had one of his most productive games of the Arizona Fall League season. In his only plate appearance, he reached base safely because a 95 mph fastball plunked him on the left foot. Unable to put his full weight on the foot without discomfort, he was removed for a pinch-runner.

Yes, that qualified as a successful day at the office as Williams wraps up a historically poor showing in the desert.

With two games remaining for the Glendale Desert Dogs, Fish On First's 22nd-ranked prospect is slashing .157/.214/.157 while striking out 30.3% of the time in what is a notoriously hitter-friendly league. His .371 OPS is second-lowest among all qualified AFL hitters. No extra-base hits. No balls that even reached the warning track. That is despite having the platoon advantage against 82.1% of opposing pitchers.

For position players, being selected to participate in the AFL is typically a significant career milestone. It means your MLB organization has made it a priority for you to get additional game reps.

On the heels of a brilliant but abbreviated 2026 minor league season, has this AFL stint actually stunted Williams' growth rather than accelerated it?

Prior to this year, we have comprehensive public data from 20 other AFL seasons (2005-19 and 2021-25). Only 15 players from that period accrued at least 50 plate appearances while posting a lower OPS than Williams. Of those 15, ten reached the major leagues, but of those ten, just one went on to have any seasons as a qualified MLB hitter (Joc Pederson).

Being lenient due to the volatility of small sample sizes, let's also consider the 15 AFL players since 2005 directly ahead of Williams in terms of OPS. Unfortunately, their MLB debut rate was even lower and the most notable career of the bunch belongs to Owen Miller (0.7 fWAR in 304 games across parts of six seasons).

Adding more context does not brighten Williams' outlook. At 22 years old, he's approximately the same age as the average AFL hitter. He already had some experience at the Double-A level prior to this. Although the 2025 draft pick was sidelined for most of this year coming off shoulder surgery, he was injury-free from July 9 onward. There was still rust to shake off as a fielder— Marlins affiliates mainly used him as a designated hitter upon his return from the IL—but not at the plate.

Entering Friday, Williams had been swinging at 61.1% of total pitches, according to TJ Stats, placing him in the 98th percentile among AFL hitters. That extremely aggressive approach is failing him in part because a lot of those swings are chases outside the strike zone, but more concerningly, he's frequently whiffing inside the zone (sixth percentile in Z-Contact%).

For all of the doom and gloom in this article so far, I'll remind you that Williams' primary problem in the fall league has been the absence of power. His amateur and professional track record strongly suggests that is an anomaly. He slugged .582 as a college sophomore in 2024, followed by .598 in 2025. This past summer, he bumped it up further to .620. That distinguishes him from fellow Marlins prospect PJ Morlando, who similarly stunk in the AFL last year and has done little before or since to show he's capable of handling an eventual major league role.

Williams is a guess hitter, and when he guesses right, he sends balls out of sight to all fields. With such simple, repeatable swing mechanics, he can rebound by seeing the ball more clearly and making better decisions. This past month has unquestionably been a disappointment, but it doesn't disqualify him from contributing to the Marlins in the coming years.

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