'Tragic number' down to 3 after Marlins blow late-inning lead

[Kevin Barral]

On Monday night, the San Diego Padres remained MLB's hottest team and defeated the Colorado Rockies, while Corbin Carroll walked off the Miami Marlins. Any combination of three more Padres wins or Marlins losses will officially eliminate Clayton McCullough's club from 2026 postseason contention.

In the bottom of the ninth, the Marlins led 7-6 and deployed Pete Fairbanks. Only six pitches into his outing, Fairbanks walked off the mound for what may be the final time as a member of the Marlins organization with the recurrence of a nerve irritation issue.

Entering the game for Fairbanks was rookie Jack Ralston. After getting the first out of the inning, Ralston surrendered a walk-off home run to Carroll on the fourth pitch of the at-bat.

"It's gonna be tough for anyone," Clayton McCullough said postgame. "Jack came in and he got the out on the bunt, and then left something hanging offspeed that Corbin put a good swing on. Tough spot, but Jack came in there and went after him, and sometimes you lose."

In this must-win game, Miami's second-half offensive stars, Jakob Marsee and Javier Sanoja, both homered and recorded multiple hits.

Marsee, who in his first 98 games of the season posted a .600 OPS, has bounced back. Since July 24, Marsee is slashing .303/.409/.497/.906 with five home runs and 12 RBI. With the game tied at three apiece in the top of the fourth inning, Marsee hit his 10th home run of the season to retake the lead, 4-3. He now has a 96 wRC+ on the season. Marsee finished his night a double shy of the cycle.

What has kept Marsee on the big league team through the course of the entire season is that he has gotten on base at a high clip (.342). He has also struck out just 20.5% of the time and is walking 12.7% of the time. Since that July 24 date, Marsee has only stolen three bases of the 22 total he has. Defensively, he has plus-8 outs above average in center field, contributing to his 1.8 fWAR overall.

"Just seen him open up the entire field," McCullough said. "He's really done a great job of shooting some balls the other way and  staying through the middle of the field. Still giving him a chance to have some coverage through the zone. He pulled the curveball for a homer today, so right now, his at-bat quality's been good all year. I think now, he's just opened up the entire field with his approach, and he's been collecting a lot of hits."

As for Sanoja, he has been one of the best players in baseball since the All-Star break. He is slashing .285/.389/.462/.851 with five home runs and 12 RBI, graduating from utility player to impactful everyday player.

Sanoja kicked things off in the top of the second, hitting his fifth triple of the season and driving in two runs. A Joe Mack sacrifice fly extended the lead, 3-0. In the fourth inning, Sanoja followed Marsee up with his ninth home run of the season, extending the Marlins lead to 5-3. Sanoja finished the night halfway to the cycle.

Overall, Sanoja is slashing .293/.333/.454/.787 with nine home runs, 63 RBI and a 114 wRC+, which are all career-highs for the 24-year-old. He is striking out 8.0% of the time. Only former Marlin Luis Arraez has a lower K rate in the majors this season (min. 400 PA).

"That's what we've seen this guy do for two years now," McCullough said. "He just he makes plays wherever you put him in the field. Comes up with big hits and at-bats for us. He's really playing at an extremely high level right now."

Xavier Edwards, who recently came off the injured list, also recorded multiple hits. In the top of the seventh inning, Edwards knocked in an RBI single to extend the Marlins lead, 7-4. That run looked as if it would be crucial when in the ensuing inning, Tyler Zuber surrendered a two-run homer to Diamondbacks center fielder Jordan Lawlar, which made it a 7-6 game.

The Marlins offense supported starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara, who struggled on Monday night. He went five innings, allowing four runs on seven hits (one home run), walked two and struck out six. Alcantara has surrendered four or more runs in all of his September starts.

"I think for Sandy to buckle down in the fifth and get the punch out on Arenado, get out of that with us still in the lead, I give him some credit for just kind of be able to move the ball forward, and outside of the Nootbaar home run, Sandy threw the ball very well," McCullough said. "Just had elongated couple of innings that got the pitch count up there, but I think as much credit to them for just being able to find some holes. Tonight, the batted ball luck wasn't really on his side."

The Marlins will try to bounce back on Tuesday night with Janson Junk taking the mound at 9:40 pm.

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