Revisiting the Luis Arraez trade tree in 2025

[Kevin Barral]

Let's check in on how the Arraez deals have worked out for the Miami Marlins, Minnesota Twins and San Diego Padres so far.

The Miami Marlins made one of the most interesting trades of the 2022-23 MLB offseason when they sent starting pitcher Pablo López, infield prospect Jose Salas and outfield prospect Byron Chourio to the Minnesota Twins in exchange for Luis Arraez. Still only 25 years old at the time, Arraez had just won the American League batting title. The next season, he went on to easily win the NL batting title, 17 points ahead of the next-best qualified hitter.

That would prove to be Arraez's only full season in Miami. On May 4, 2024, the Marlins flipped him to the San Diego Padres. They ate most of his remaining salary and received four minor leaguers in return: outfielders Dillon Head and Jakob Marsee, first baseman Nathan Martorella and reliever Woo-Suk Go. The strange timing of this one—barely a month into the regular season—made it the center of the baseball world's attention. Yet another batting title followed.

These trades are still fresh and we will have to wait several more years to determine who ultimately "won" them, but it is worth taking a moment to update how things are progressing so far.

 

Marlins perspective

Going into 2023, it was evident that the Marlins needed to acquire a bat via free agency or trade that would bolster their lineup. They had pitching to spare that would keep them in games, but to win, you need to score runs. It was well known that López was available—they came very close to moving him at the 2022 trade deadline.

At the time, this trade was viewed as an overpay by the Marlins and a risky one. Their farm system was, at best, middle of the pack in terms of talent. Trading Salas and Chourio only made matters worse.

Arraez came to Miami as a clear offensive upgrade, but the Marlins were also counting on him to improve his play at second base and tap into a little bit more power.

In his lone full season with the organization, he succeeded in both areas. Arraez had a career year, slashing .354/.393/.469/.861 with ten home runs (career-high), 69 RBI (career-high), 3.3 fWAR (career-high) and a 128 OPS+ (matching career-high). He was named to the National League All-Star team and became the first player to ever hit for the cycle in a Marlins uniform.

Arraez had four defensive runs saved, a .933 fielding percentage and led National League second basemen with 93 double plays turned. He finished eighth in National League MVP voting and was a fan favorite in Miami.

The Marlins posted an 84-78 record, reaching the postseason for the first time in a full season since 2003, but were swept by the Philadelphia Phillies.

It was a successful season for the Marlins, but the momentum did not carry over to 2024 whatsoever. Principal owner Bruce Sherman and general manager Kim Ng mutually parted ways after the postseason. Peter Bendix was hired as the president of baseball operations.

During spring training, Arraez publicly expressed his desire to sign a contract extension with the Marlins. Bendix never made a formal offer to him. Instead, 33 games into a dismal season, Arraez was traded to the Padres.

Waiver claim Otto Lopez has taken over Arraez's spot at second base. Despite hitting for a much lower average, he has produced more value overall thanks to a great glove. Lopez won't reach free agency until after the 2029 season.

The prospect performances have been a mixed bag.

Dillon Head (Fish On First's #9 prospect) suffered a hip injury almost immediately after the trade. The athletic former first-round draft pick is back on the field this season and slashing .224/.298/.408/.706 with a 94 wRC+ in 13 games with Low-A Jupiter.

Jakob Marsee (FOF #24) is closest to the majors. He leads the International League with 16 stolen bases. He's slashing .239/.420/.448/.868 in 21 games with Triple-A Jacksonville.

Nathan Martorella finds himself repeating Double-A and is slashing .178/.315/.244/.559 with only five RBIs in 13 games. Woo-Suk Go is hurt and the Marlins had no expectations for him to begin with. Go struggled between AA and AAA last season.

 

Minnesota Twins perspective

The Twins were coming off a 78-84 season in 2022, missing the postseason. Their offense ranked 13th in fWAR and 10th in wRC+. Pitching on the other hand was an issue, ranking 20th in fWAR, 19th in ERA and 20th in K/9. They needed to add an arm and were able to move off of a bat. The Marlins and Twins were perfect trade partners.

Arraez was at the peak of his value coming off a season where he was an AL All-Star and Silver Slugger award winner while still having three years of club control left. They felt that they could fill his shoes with homegrown infielders including Royce Lewis, José Miranda and Edouard Julien. 

Within the first month of the 2023 season, López agreed to a four-year, $73.5 million contract extension with Minnesota that ran through his age-31 season.

The extension has looked like a good investment for the most part.

Overall in 2023, López posted a 3.66 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 10.9 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in a career-high 194 innings pitched. He was selected to his first MLB All-Star Game. The Twins won the AL Central division with an 87-75 record. López led them to a Game 1 win over the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL Wild Card Series, which snapped the franchise's 18-game postseason losing streak. He was even better against the Houston Astros in the ALCS, going seven shutout innings with one walk and seven strikeouts.

In 2024, Lopez regressed a bit, posting a 4.08 ERA in 185 ⅓ innings pitched.

He got off to a great start in 2025, but he's been out for two weeks due to a hamstring strain. Meanwhile, the team has been a major disappointment early on, going 7-15. It's the second-worst record among AL teams ahead of only the Chicago White Sox.

The prospects involved in the initial Arraez trade are still far away from potentially reaching the majors.

Jose Salas was dealt coming off a solid season between Low-A and High-A. He was playing a lot of shortstop, stealing bases efficiently and received an invitation to the Arizona Fall League as a 19-year-old. Ever since the trade, his bat hasn't developed as hoped. In 195 games with High-A Cedar Rapids, he is slashing .209/.275/.301/.577 with eight home runs, 38 stolen bases and a 68 wRC+. Salas was used a utility player in 2024, making starts at six different defensive positions. He's currently on the IL.

As for Chourio, he is repeating Low-A after struggling in 2024. Through 13 games this season, he is slashing .293/.509/.317/.826 thanks to an incredibly high walk rate.

Neither Salas nor Chourio rank among the top 20 Twins prospects, according to Twins Daily. They are also both unranked on the latest Baseball America and MLB Pipeline Twins top 30 lists.

 

San Diego Padres perspective

It was easy for the Padres to pull the trigger on acquiring Arraez. There was heavy pressure on them to contend, it barely cost them any money and none of prospects they gave up were ready to contribute in the big leagues.

Arraez debuted with a 4-for-6 game and served as San Diego's leadoff hitter for the rest of 2024. The Padres went 76-51 with him on the roster, which was the third-highest winning percentage in MLB during that span. They swept the Atlanta Braves in the NL Wild Card Series, but were eliminated by the eventual World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS. Arraez did not make an impact in October, slashing .226/.226/.226/.452 in seven games.

In 139 total regular season games as a Padre, Arraez is slashing .313/.344/.402/.746 with a 112 wRC+, which is below his career norms. He is making more contact than ever (3.2 K%), but also rarely drawing walks (3.4 BB%). The 28-year-old has also made the position switch to first base.

Arraez was involved in a scary collision last Sunday while hustling down the first base line. He's been placed on the 7-day IL with a concussion, but he is not expected to miss much time.

 

 

 

 

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A post shared by Luis Arraez (@arraezluis)

 

The Padres continue to enjoy team success in 2025. They enter Tuesday with a 16-7 record.

Arraez, a pending free agent, is likely to spend the rest of the season in San Diego. Beyond that, though, he may wind up moving to his fourth team in as many years considering the team's existing long-term payroll commitments.

 

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Who's the winner?

The Padres have the clearest path to "winning" the Arraez trade tree if he helps them capture their first-ever World Series title. However, any way you break it down, they have gotten the worst version of Arraez in terms of individual production. It depends how you value intangibles—"La Regadera" is one of the most beloved teammates in the sport.

Arraez was absolutely essential to the 2023 Marlins and he will continue to be appreciated by the fanbase. Unpopular as it would have been, the front office probably regrets not trading him away during the 2023-24 offseason when there were more teams to negotiate with. 

Things have gone downhill for the Twins since 2023. Still, López is an extraordinary clubhouse leader and community ambassador as well. They're grateful to have him leading their starting rotation long term.

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