Juan Soto's signing bonus larger than projected 2025 Marlins payroll

[Ely Sussman]

We've grown accustomed to seeing a massive payroll disparity between the Marlins and their NL East rivals, but Soto's historic contract takes it to another level.

Major League Baseball's wealthiest owner, Steve Cohen, was determined to do whatever it took win the bidding war for one of the most coveted free agents ever, Juan Soto. Venerable reporters braced us for an absurd contract, yet the end result is still unfathomable.

Soto and the New York Mets reached an agreement Sunday night on a 15-year, $765 million pact. None of the money is deferred. This comes close to matching the value of the two previous biggest MLB contracts put together, and he has the potential to earn even more, maxing out at $805 million if the Mets have to deter him from opting out after five years.

The league previously altered its rules to account for Cohen's aggressive spending. In the most recent collective bargaining agreement, luxury tax-related penalties were made more stringent in the spirit of competitive balance. Evidently, that has done little to discourage him.

While the Mets can access "the entirety of the player universe," the Miami Marlins, even with the aid of revenue sharing, have a tiny fraction of their cash. Barring dramatic changes to Bruce Sherman's ownership group, the Marlins will never successfully court an elite free agent to Miami in the prime of their career. Rather, they find themselves constantly churning experienced big leaguers for younger, cheaper alternatives who might be as good.

• Juan Soto's signing bonus: $75 million
• Projected 2025 Marlins Opening Day payroll (via Cot's Baseball Contracts): $63 million

The current contrast between these teams overstates the imbalance. Last month, Sherman said he's waiting for "the right time" to increase his investment in the roster, indirectly acknowledging that the 2025 Fish are doubtful to be postseason contenders no matter which reinforcements get brought in. In the meantime, entering the second year with Peter Bendix leading baseball operations, the Marlins are devoting themselves to becoming a premier player development organization. The daunting reality is, every organization recognizes the importance of that as well.

Baseball can be beautifully chaotic from year to year. As recently as July 2023, the Mets were reluctantly selling established veterans to the playoff-bound Marlins! The correlation between payroll and victories is not as sturdy as it seems in moments like this.

However, unless the Marlins are truly innovative with the ways that they maximize their players' potential via analysis and coaching, how can they consistently overcome richer competition, especially in the deep-pocketed National League East division?

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[rurrusuno]

Funny enough, this contract alone makes Soto’s net worth more than Bruce Sherman’s. That’s breathtaking. To take it even further, his contract is worth more than LeBron James and Tom Brady’s lifetime earnings!

[THOMAS JOSEPH]

I saw Ely's associated X post on this subject and the replies were right on point. Even for the crazies who think Sherman and his group are pulling $30 or $40 million a year out the Marlins, which is utterly ludicrous, the term of Soto's deal alone negates any chance that sixty percent of the league could even consider such a risk. 

We see what happens when a single player (or two) devastates a team's chances of a decade. The Angels' heavyweight triumvirate of Pujols, Rendon, and Trout is a compilation of horrendous decisions.  Miguel Cabrera's abominable extension in Detroit cost them $40m PER WAR over the better part of a decade. For low-revenue teams, such top-heavy foolishness is easy to spot - such as Votto in Cincinnati. Anyone who thinks the Reds ownership doesn't wish they could turn back time to 2016 and trade him for a savings of $150m is not dealing in reality. Some future HOF cap for $150m?  Uh, no. that's a killer for a team like Cincinnati and it showed.  Can the Yankees handle a Stanton deal? Yes, obviously.

The top six or seven teams are able to consider these deals and no one else. So, as Ely noted on X, the upcoming CBA is the line in the sand for not only competitiveness, put sustainability of the league on real terms.  Unless, of course, the top owners want an incestuous, significantly boring, contracted league. I know the MLBPA doesn't. The post-2026 season CBA fight will be quite epic with high probability of work stoppage or a missed season. There is no more time to kick the proverbial can down the road.