Roundtable reaction to first half of 2024 Marlins season

[Fish On First Staff]

The Fish On First staff analyzes what's gone wrong for the Marlins, who could be on the move at the trade deadline and which players they expect to shine brightest during the second half of the season.

With 81 games in the books and 81 games to go, eight Fish On First staffers give their midseason takes on the state of the Miami Marlins.

 

1. The 2024 Marlins are even worse than any of us predicted entering Opening Day. Why?

Ely Sussman: Any hope that the Marlins had of being moderately competitive this season hinged on quality starting pitching. As of this writing, pitchers who combined to start 85% of the team's games last season are all on the injured list, all at the same time. You cannot anticipate nor overcome that.

Daniel Rodriguez: Injuries have plagued this team from the start of the season and especially on the starting pitching front. The Tim Anderson signing and not upgrading the catching position have hurt the team on the offensive end, making the team worse than what we all predicted.

Hector Rodriguez: Pitching injuries and offense is tough to watch.

Louis Addeo-Weiss: No emphasis on adding cost-effective power bats, lack of veteran SP depth, and years of poor player development coming to the surface when big leaguers go down.

Isaac Azout: Injuries have certainly plagued the Marlins in 2024, and it would be disingenuous to say that isn't the main reason why. However, entering this year, expectations were still low assuming a fully healthy rotation. The organization did not upgrade the positions they needed to and and missed on their main acquisitions. Coming off a miracle postseason appearance in which it was evident to everyone in the industry that it was not repeatable nor sustainable, they foolishly kept "one eye on the present and one on the future," and were stuck in the middle. My final answer: Half because of injuries to starting pitchers, half because of the failures by the baseball operations department.

Kevin Barral: A lot of it has to do with the high amount of injuries to the starting pitchers. The offense also took a big hit with the losses of Jorge Soler and most recently, Luis Arraez. Their position players went from ranking 25th in WAR to 29th, just ahead of the Chicago White Sox. Although the bullpen is beginning to look like the one we saw in 2023, it massively struggled at the beginning of the season. The lack of offseason activity with intent to compete was just wrong when you see the rest of your division go out there and make big moves.

Alex Krutchik: After already being without Sandy Alcantara coming into this season, they have had six starting pitchers hit the injured list at different parts of the year, and it’s not even the All-Star break yet.

Nate Karzmer: The obvious answer is injuries, but I would also say that they have regressed to the mean after pulling off so many miracle wins and late-inning comebacks in 2023.

 

2. Which Marlins player has been the most pleasant surprise so far this season?

Ely: Ryan Weathers. The former first-round draft pick clearly had the potential to take a leap forward from his previous sub-replacement level form, but he's been exceeding expectations when healthy. Improved fastball command is getting him ahead in counts far more frequently. Opponents are hitting just .119 against Weathers' sweeper with 23 strikeouts in 50 plate appearances ending with that pitch. He's a genuine mid-rotation starter moving forward.

Daniel: Otto Lopez.

Hector: Otto Lopez.

Louis: Declan Cronin.

Isaac: Tanner Scott. I know he had an incredible breakout season in 2023, but he has arguably been even better this year. After a very concerning spring training, he is somehow sporting a minuscule 1.54 ERA while walking nearly six batters per nine innings. I did not thing he would be able to repeat last year's greatness, but here we are.

Kevin: When the Marlins acquired Declan Cronin, expectations were low, but he has been one of their best relievers this season. Cronin has also shown plenty of versatility to go multiple innings as well as one-inning situations. High leverage is where Cronin has also thrived. He will be a nice trade asset for Miami.

Alex: Jazz Chisholm Jr. He’s striking out less than he ever has, is hitting a career-best against lefties, and has stayed healthy.

Nate: Declan Cronin. The former waiver claim has been the second-best arm in Miami’s ‘pen and has generated a deserved amount of trade buzz around his name in the process.

 

3. Excluding pending free agents (like Tanner Scott and Josh Bell), which Marlin do you think is most likely to get dealt between now and the trade deadline?

Ely: Jazz Chisholm Jr. I don't think there are any "locks" to get moved outside of the soon-to-be free agents, but Chisholm's value is peaking right now. He's been durable in 2024 and he's been productive at the time when offense is down among MLB center fielders, plus he still has 2.5 years of club control remaining. Unless the Marlins are confident about being able to extend his contract at a reasonable rate, now's the time to flip him for a prospect haul. 

Daniel: Bryan De La Cruz.

Louis: Cronin. While there is always volatility associated with acquiring relievers, I still believe in the peripherals in projecting long-term performance, and Cronin’s are borderline-great (2.58 FIP, 92nd percentile Barrel%, 95th percentile GB rate). Club control through 2029 doesn’t hurt either.

Isaac: Relief pitchers Calvin Faucher, Andrew Nardi and Declan Cronin. If the team is smart, they will sell high on all relief pitchers regardless of club control.

Kevin: I think teams will like what Bryan De La Cruz offers. Although defensively it's tough, he has the bat to overcome that or can just help a lot of teams as a designated hitter. Ely noted that the Seattle Mariners are a team that can use him and so can the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Alex: Jazz.

Nate: It would be Jesús Luzardo, but with the unfortunate timing of his injury, I would now say Bryan De La Cruz. De La Cruz has been the most consistent bat in the Marlins lineup this year and would be a great pickup for any contender.

 

4. Only six National League teams have winning records. Predict one of the other teams to turn things around and make the playoffs.

Ely: The Cincinnati Reds have been alarmingly mediocre at the plate this season. They have the talent to turn that around in the second half and earn a postseason berth for just the second time in the last decade.

Daniel: Surprise pick is the Washington Nationals. I believe they are a couple moves at the deadline away from reaching the playoffs.

Hector: Cubs could be dangerous if their offense figures it out.

Louis: Pirates. It may not have the ring of “Tinker to Evers to Chance,” but the tandem of “Skenes to Jones to Keller” along with better performance from some underperforming veterans (McCutchen and Reynolds) and the addition of a veteran bat (Tommy Pham?) could propel Pittsburgh to a late playoff push.

Isaac: The Arizona Diamondbacks. They're too good to struggle all year long.

Kevin: The Arizona Diamondbacks will have starting pitching coming back soon and are just three games under .500, it feels like the easy and rather conservative choice to go with.

Alex: New York Mets.

Nate: I’m between the Pirates and Diamondbacks, but I’ll roll with Pittsburgh. I believe their front office will add at some bats at the deadline to help their star rookies on the mound in Paul Skenes and Jared Jones.

 

5. Who will be the MVP of the second half of the Marlins season?

Ely: The final game of Jake Burger's first half (3-5, HR, 2 RBI) was hopefully a turning point. He ought to slug right around .500 from this point forward.

Daniel: Andrew Nardi (prediction is Tanner Scott gets traded, so Nardi will take up more of the high-leverage spots).

Hector: Jazz Chisholm Jr. if he’s not traded.

Louis: Otto Lopez, and that’s largely based on how even more feeble the offense could look post deadline.

Isaac: Jesús Sánchez, easily.

Kevin: Otto Lopez has been playing almost every single day and he's been great. Despite slumping in the month of June, he'll continue to play every day and be one of the bright spots on a struggling Marlins roster.

Alex: Trevor Rogers.

Nate: Sticking to my preseason pick, I’ll go with Jazz Chisholm Jr. Jazz has stayed (knocks on wood) healthy all year and could be Miami’s lone All-Star in Arlington. If he keeps up his play for the rest of the year, he could have his first 20/20 season in the bigs and potentially get the “overrated” label off of him.

 

---

Follow Ely (@RealEly), Daniel (@Drodyyy), Hector (@Hector_Baseball), Louis (@addeo_louis00), Isaac (@IsaacAzout), Kevin (@kevin_barral), Alex (@AlexKrutchikFOF) and Nate (@NateKarzmer) on Twitter.

View full article

[Slacker Mills]

Most pleasant surprise: Otto Lopez 128 OPS in May

Biggest disappointment: Otto Lopez 28 OPS in June

 

[THOMAS JOSEPH]

These predictions articles are fun. I find myself agreeing and then flip-flopping. As far as trades, I think there will be five (5) moves from the active roster: Chisholm, Scott, De la Cruz, Cronin, and Chargois.