Spring Cleaning: Rebuilding the Miami Marlins

[Gavin Frick]

The Miami Marlins were not supposed to start this season 7-24. No matter how difficult it might be playing in the NL East, a team that won 84-78 and made the playoffs last season, shouldn't be weeks away from waving the white flag in April, but here we are after a self-destructive start to the season.

This quick exercise is simple: the Marlins are struggling and in this fictional world, on May 1st, the organization hired me to quickly make some changes and help set this team on a path towards success. Let's get to work.

(Find the original version of this post here.)

 

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Step 1 - The Focus: Over the last few years, as an outsider, the Marlins rebuild has appeared to be pretty vanilla: build around the cornucopia of pitching prospects already assembled in the minor leagues. And that's what we're going to continue. Considering the prospects Miami has collected, we will be making moves that will work towards capitalizing on the organization's tremendous pitching depth.

Organizational Depth (Years Remaining Inclu. 2027):

1. Sandy Alcantara (4)
2. Edward Cabrera (5)
3. Braxton Garrett (5)
4. Jesus Luzardo (3)
5. Eury Perez (7)
6. Trevor Rogers (3)
7. Max Meyer (min.)
8. Noble Meyer (min.)
9. Thomas White (min.)

There's a ton of talent there, and we will be looking to move one of these names during this exercise. If I were with this team for multiple years, I would hope to move another name (and possibly even a third) in 2025 or 2026.

 

Step 2 - The Moves: As if anything else in the exercise matters. The best course of action for the Marlins is to capitalize on the next several years of pitching control they have and attempt to build a strong offense and farm system, which they can use to acquire some big-name hitters when the opportunity presents itself.

Since we are only in May, we can't be sure what teams are looking to add and what players might be available. I tried to be as fair and realistic as possible. With that being said, these trades are just an idea. I understand a lot of consideration goes into every trade an organization makes and these suggestions are easy to throw around when I have nothing at stake. I am simply going to explain my thought process and everything I am looking for in a trade.

MLB Trade Calculator - Arraez to Toronto

 

Trade #1: 2B Luis Arraez to Toronto for #2 Orelvis Martinez and #22 Jace Bohrofen

And right off the bat, I am sure I just pissed off a good majority of the Marlins fanbase. But I will be the one to say it: Luis Arraez doesn't result in winning baseball - at least the way this Marlins team is going to win.

Right now, the Marlins have no offensive identity. Arraez is one of the best professional hitters in baseball and is the perfect player to slide into the #2 slot in the lineup. However, he's not very good in the field and is not somebody I want at 2B. While he does a lot of great things at the plate, he's not going to hit for the kind of power you want at 1B. So instead of forcing him into the lineup every day, we ship out Arraez, and the final 1 ½ years left on his contract to get much younger.

Orelvis Martinez has a big bat and a strong arm. Currently the Blue Jays #2 prospect, Martinez is the organization's top positional prospect. While he is considered a shortstop, once he fills into his frame, Martinez will slide in beautifully at 3B. So far this season, Martinez is hitting .300 with 7 HR, 22 RBI, and a .364 OBP over 23 games in AAA. This is coming off a season that resulted in 28 HR and 94 RBI in 2023 while owning a 28% K% in AA/AAA, a number that has dropped significantly in 2024.

Jace Bohrofen is another strong bat we add in addition to Martinez. Bohrofen was a highly-touted prospect out of high school and finally met expectations in his third season of college at Arkansas. In just 24 games, Bohrofen, a sixth-round pick, hit 7 HR and 22 RBI in 2023, while hitting .289 and reaching base at a .442 rate over his entire minor league career. Bohrofen, whose smooth and effortless swing will continue to get him opportunities in the Marlins system, will go as far as his bat takes him

The Blue Jays are looking to stay competitive in the AL East these next two seasons and have a significant weakness at second base. Arraez slides into their lineup perfectly between George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who would both benefit from the presence of the MLB batting champion.

 

Trade #2: LHP Jesus Luzardo to Boston for #3 Kyle Teel, #7 Yoeilin Cespedes, #10 Richard Fitts and #19 Blaze Jordan

The pitching market is hyper-inflated at the moment and with our army chest of starting pitchers, it would be stubborn of us not to participate in the market before the trade deadline arrives. While he has had a shaky start to his 2024 season, Jesus Luzardo is still one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball and can demand a notable bounty in return. With the least amount of control of any of the pitchers in our rotation, but still enough remaining to demand a respectable ransom in return, Luzardo is the guy we are going to ship to Boston.

Kyle Teel, the 14th pick of the 2023 MLB Draft, is considered to be one of the big three prospects that will return winning baseball to Boston. However, the Sox have unexpectedly started the season hot despite injuries to key players and are in the thick of the AL East race early, which has forced them to address their biggest weakness: the starting rotation.

While Boston was never going to part with Marcelo Mayer or Roman Anthony, after much deliberation, they agreed to part with Teel, their most recent first-round pick and star catching prospect from Virginia, who will be the Marlins backstop for the foreseeable future. Teel's excellent bat-to-ball skills and strong defense will make Teel an everyday player in Miami, who already has a "pop-time" that ranks inside the top 10 in the MLB.

To go along with Teel, the Marlins will also receive Yoeilin Cespedes. Boston has an influx of middle infield prospects and the Sox agree to send us the one ranked 3rd in their group of 4. Cespedes is currently profiled as a shortstop, but will likely play second base in the pros, standing at just 5'8" and 181 pounds. With that being said, the 18-year-old will have plenty of time to build on his frame and capitalize on his mammoth 2023 season, in which he hit .346, striking out just 12% of the time in Rookie Ball.

Richard Fitts is an intriguing prospect. Acquired in December from the Yankees, Fitts has a high ceiling and is the perfect prospect to throw into the bullpen this season. At 24 years old, Fitts does not walk very many batters and has a very easy delivery which reduces the chances of an injury - two things I love in pitchers.

Lastly, Blaze Jordan is a solid power bat who plays first base. While raw, Jordan has a ton of power that if honed in correctly, could lead to an everyday power bat at the professional level. His plate approach could use some work and with enough at-bats over the next two years in the minor league system, Jordan could become a contributor for the team by 2026.

 

Other Trade Possibilities:

Being so early in the season, it is hard to find the right trade partner, but I surely tried.

Tanner Scott seems like the most reasonable player to be traded next. I explored Philadelphia briefly but opted not to trade the left-handed hired gun within the division. I was close to trading him to Arizona and adding Jake McCarthy to shore up the outfield along with another prospect, but allowing Scott to add value as we get closer to the trade deadline is a much smarter play.

Josh Bell and Jake Burger are two other trade candidates, but both will be difficult to move. Bell is in the final year of his deal, making nearly $17M a year while Burger rests on IL. Both will be candidates to be moved in July.

Edward Cabrera would have been the second pitcher I traded, but the 6’5” flamethrower has four years of control beyond 2024 and deserves to continue to develop in our rotation over the course of the season before exploring a possible trade.

Lastly, I did explore a trade for Jazz Chisholm. With two years left after 2024, the star utilityman could yield a decent return - just not at the moment. After trading Arraez, I would prefer to move Chisholm back to second and allow him to grow into his full potential with less of an injury risk.

 

Step 3 - What’s Next

With the farm system reloaded and two familiar faces out the door, as we enter the month of May this is what the team looks like:

1. 2B Jazz Chisholm Jr.
2. LF Bryan De La Cruz
3. RF Jesus Sanchez
4. 1B Josh Bell
5. 3B Emmanuel Rivera
6. SS Vidal Brujan
7. CF Dane Myers
8. DH Tim Anderson
9. C Nick Fortes

 

     IL: Jake Burger

     IL: Avisail Garcia

 

1. Edward Cabrera
2. Trevor Rogers
3. Ryan Weathers
4. Sixto Sanchez
5. Max Meyer

 

     IL: Sandy Alcantara

     IL: Braxton Garrett

     IL: Eury Perez

     IL: AJ Puk

 

If you’re a Marlins fan, you’re begging for something to get excited for this season. Even though I have committed to a complete rebuild and I expect a few more players to go at the deadline, there are still a few things Marlins fans can get excited for this year.

In his three starts this season, Max Meyer, the Marlins #3 prospect, has looked fantastic. Over 17.0 innings, Meyer has allowed 4 earned runs and 11 hits while striking out 14. At 25 years old, it’s time for Meyer to start pitching every fifth day in the majors to see what he can do.

Over the past few games the Marlins have started playing Dane Myers and going forward, he will be playing center field. In his first three-game sample size, Myers has three hits in seven at-bats, while pushing across three runs. Marlins fans have been clamoring to see more from the 28-year-old and he’ll be given a chance to prove himself over the rest of the season in the outfield.

 

The Verdict:

The NL East is a gauntlet. Expecting Miami to compete with the likes of Atlanta and Philadelphia while the Mets monster budget continues to loom was a tall task. And while these goliaths slug it out at the top of the division, it’s time the Marlins continue to commit to the rebuild and build their team the correct way.

Giving the rest of the pitching staff time to get healthy while the younger arms prepare for big leagues is this team’s best bet moving forward.

Over the next two seasons, Atlanta, New York, and Philadelphia aren’t going anywhere. However, as their cores continue to grow, players will inevitably leave opening the door for a hungry Miami team, loaded with a plethora of prospects ready to make the leap to the majors.

This rebuild is far from complete. These two trades do nothing except let other teams know that we are preparing for the future. There are still trades to be made. Whether that’s Josh Bell or Tanner Scott at the deadline, or Jazz Chisholm next winter, or maybe even Sandy Alcantara being traded for a game-changing hitter to add to the lineup.

While the Marlins don’t stand much of a chance in the NL East until 2026 at the earliest, there are still players on the team that can help this team in two years while others have enough trade value to bring in other players to contribute within our new contention window.

The Marlins are a bad baseball team right now. However, they have a lot of flexibility over the next two seasons which could translate to success if the rebuild is executed correctly.

While Marlins fans are sure to be remembering what once was just a few months ago, the future's looking bright for this fictional Marlins squad with a clear direction and vision for the future.

 

- Gavin Frick

Email: gwfrick21@gmail.com

X: @gwfrick21