How close is Sixto Sánchez to regaining his old stuff?

[Ely Sussman]

Sánchez has come a long way over the last six months, but there are still clear differences between what we're seeing this spring and the pitch characteristics that made him the Marlins' top prospect prior to his health issues.

The last time (and the only time) we saw Sixto Sánchez pitch in 2023, he was unrecognizable. On September 12 of that season, he threw one inning for the Miami Marlins' Double-A Pensacola affiliate. Sánchez finessed his way through a scoreless frame on 18 pitches. None of them topped 88 miles per hour. He was scratched from his next scheduled appearance and written off as a viable member of the Marlins pitching staff moving forward.

Prior to his shoulder injury, I was bullish on Sánchez's long-term outlook. Beyond the elite fastball velocity, he flaunted a deep pitch mix, plus command and a knack for earning outs early in a plate appearance. That version of Sixto—the one who elicited Pedro Martínez comps, posted a 3.46 ERA/3.50 FIP as a rookie starter and was instrumental to the Marlins snapping their 17-year postseason drought—is never coming back. However, the portly right-hander who reported to this year's spring training with zero expectations has made substantial strides since last summer's ugly cameo.

During his first live batting practice session of 2024, Sánchez sat 92-94 mph with his fastball. In his first Grapefruit League appearance, he topped out at 95. Then on Friday, 96.

"He feels good, which is probably the biggest thing for him obviously and for us," manager Skip Schumaker said postgame on Friday. "For him to come back and feel like he's ready to go is good. The next step is, is it multiple innings? What do back-to-backs look like? All that stuff. He has to check some boxes still, but overall, pretty good."

There isn't an apples-to-apples comparison to make between the old Sixto and the new Sixto due to his role switch. After multiple surgeries and countless setbacks, he's becoming a reliever to limit his workload. His attack plan will likely look different without having to prioritize efficiency to the same extent or worry about facing the same batters multiple times.

That being said, via Statcast, we can analyze how Sánchez's quality of stuff has changed from his final 2021 pre-injury outing to his ongoing audition for a 2024 Opening Day roster spot.

Here is Sánchez's Baseball Savant "pitcher report" from March 25, 2021. He encountered a close-to-full-strength Washington Nationals lineup at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium and threw 61 total pitches. He was relatively effective (3.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K) despite only inducing three swinging strikes.

Sánchez's max velocity that day was 100.5 mph, more than four ticks above his fastest post-injury heater. He averaged 97.6 mph on sinkers/four-seamers with 16.8 inches of horizontal break on the sinker.

Sánchez made heavy use of his cutter (37.7% usage) and changeup (27.9%). Both pitches averaged a shade below 91 mph.

Fast-forward to the current spring training, Sánchez had 32 total pitches recorded by Statcast during his March 2 and March 8 appearances (both at Roger Dean vs. the New York Mets). His pitch types are being classified much differently as the system tries to recalibrate to his diminished stuff.

Statcast does not know what to do with Sánchez's fastballs so far in 2024. Most of them are showing up as four-seamers (10 thrown)—on average, those are breaking only 7.2 inches horizontally at 94.5 mph. Two other pitches (91.0 mph and 92.2 mph) have been labeled "cutters" despite behaving nothing like his old cutter. There's also one "changeup" at 92.4 mph that is clearly out of place. Combining all of these, his fastball average dips below 94.  

Sánchez's slider, which was absent from the Nats game, was the fifth pitch in his repertoire during the 2020 season. That is now tracking as a curveball because its average velo has plummeted from 85.8 mph to 80.5 mph.

This spring, Statcast has detected one "slider" from Sánchez at 88.7 mph, which I've embedded below. That is not a slider—it looks like a lousy cutter. It earned the desired result (a called strike), but Sánchez meant to throw it to the other side of the plate.

See for yourself:

The signature Sixto changeup hasn't gone anywhere. He's at 40.7% usage with it once you manually omit the mislabeled fastball mentioned earlier and add a "curveball" that had obvious changeup spin. He has solid command of it and the armside run is still there.

What worries me about Sánchez is how little spin he's generating on his four-seamer and curveball. That was never a strength of his game to begin with and now he'll have even more trouble missing bats with them.

 

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Aided by Braxton Garrett's shoulder issues and Huascar Brazoban's unavailability, it is plausible that Sixto Sánchez cracks the initial Marlins active roster. I don't think he is a top-13 pitcher in Marlins camp, but he's out of minor league options, so the alternative is designating him for assignment. It's understandable to be curious about how much more velo he could potentially conjure as he continues shaking off the cobwebs.

Like Schumaker said, Sánchez needs to show his ability to adapt to multi-inning and/or back-to-back situations. It's not practical to hold onto a single-inning reliever who operates on a starter's schedule, only contributing once every five days.

Fish On First will closely monitor Sánchez's remaining Grapefruit League outings for further signs of improvement. As things currently stand, I'd advise you to continue holding off on placing any expectations on him.

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[Slacker Mills]

I don't see the value in comparing himself to his "old self". You have to compare him to the rest of auditioning pitchers. He looks great to me and is very colorful on the mound. I'll settle for watching him come out of the pen but would love to see him work up to starter or at least a two- or three-inning opener.

[Ely Sussman]

9 hours ago, Slacker Mills said:

I don't see the value in comparing himself to his "old self". You have to compare him to the rest of auditioning pitchers. He looks great to me and is very colorful on the mound. I'll settle for watching him come out of the pen but would love to see him work up to starter or at least a two- or three-inning opener.

Well, that's because you are rational. In my observation, there are plenty of fans excited about the potential for Sixto to become some kind of high-leverage weapon who can still deliver dominance in small spurts. I wanted to make it clear that he is still a complete wild card (and that's being generous).

[Stanley J Makowski]

There was an article featuring the 15 best pitchers as of now. THREE OF THEM WERE EX MARINS and that didn't include Evaldi either.  Sanchex has tremendous upside. They simply must keep him...but they probably won't. Rather we will see one or two awful months of Garcia. The shame of it!

[Slacker Mills]

If things go well for Sixto over the next couple weeks, he should make the bullpen without a doubt. Bender, Maldonado, Nardi, and Soriano are sure things. Hoeing likely. Scott ... who knows. Puk and Sanchez would add up to seven. Alvardo?