Breaking Down George Soriano

[Sean McCormack]

George Soriano 

      In this discussion, I will do a breakdown of what I expect from George Soriano for this upcoming season. Soriano who is 24, turning 25 in March, is looking ahead to his first full season with the Marlins. Soriano who signed with the Fish back in 2015 has been utilized as a starter most of his young career, then made a transition to the bullpen with the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp in 2022. While in 2023 he moved part-time to the starting rotation in AAA for most of the season until he made his Major League debut with the Marlins on April 16th against the D-Backs tossing 3 scoreless innings. Soriano made one start with the big league club on July 5th against the Rangers where he went 3 innings and allowed 3 runs while walking 3 and punching out 4. The talk of the spring regarding Soriano is he will be used out of the Marlins bullpen but stretched out as a starter if needed. I believe Soriano has the potential to breakout with the Marlins this season, digging deeper into his pitch repertoire he has many things boding well for himself, either as a backend of the bullpen guy, backing up Tanner Scott close games, or a potential 4th or 5th starter if injuries or trades happen. 

 

Overall Numbers

      Soriano's numbers definitely don't jump off the stat sheet at first glance. Although I will do a deeper analysis of his actual pitch data it is important to review his tip of the iceberg numbers. In 2023 at the Major League level, Soriano put up a, 3.91 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and a 4.37 FIP in 52 innings, this is far from impressive but that's why it's important to dig deeper and see what adjustments could be made. Soriano has a 3-pitch mix which includes a 4S fastball, slider, and changeup. . Expected stats don't favor Soriano very much, to say the least, he had an xERA of 5.04 and an xwOBA of .341. Which leaves people possibly wondering, Well? Then what makes you like Soriano?  One, He's young, and two his changeup and slider are great. 

 

Changeup

      Just like any other classic Marlin pitcher we've developed Soriano has that power changeup. Soriano's changeup comes at 89 MPH on average, he gets groundballs at a 67.6% clip which is 15% higher than the league average on changeups. George uses this pitch away from lefties and into righties, it has a lot of horizontal movement to it at 10.7 inches of movement on average which is 2 inches more than the average changeup. His ability to fill the zone with a CS% (called strike) of 12.6 which is 3% higher than average allows him to get an insane groundball rate with this pitch. Soriano relies on his changeup by throwing early in counts at a 67.4% rate. The reason for such a high early usage is definitely due to his terrible fastball which I will go into deeper later. Overall Soriano fills the zone up with his changeup that is full of electric movement with high velocity that results in an elite Brl% of 2.7% and an insane GB% of 67.6%. The only downside overall is that his changeup is only effective against lefties. For example, his AVG on the changeup vs lefties was .189 while against righties it was .308. I believe this is because his fastball shape is very similar to his changeup besides the velo on it which is very concerning. 

 

Concering 4Seam Shape 

      One newer development at least to the public is the access to pitch shapes and one thing we've learned is that flat bad 4seam shape up in the zone leads to poor outcomes for the pitcher. This fastball shape is a lot more of a sinker profile than a good four-seam fastball. It has a ton of arm-side movement with a low amount of vertical movement. This is bad because he fills the top of the zone with a pitch that is flat and runs into barrels. Soriano's fastball also has about 200 less RPM than the average fastball with only 13.8 inches of induced break compared to a league average of 17.2, this is much more of a sinker profile that is being very misused. Not to mention he also has just league average velo on it at 94 mph. He doesn't get much swings or whiff on it. Players whiffed at 17% compared to a league average of 22% and a Str% of 59% which is below the league average mark of 64%. Soriano could do two things. Either change his fastball grip which isn't as easy as it sounds as this may just be natural to him, or he can just fully adopt a sinker and throw it low in the zone early in counts instead of throwing this fastball behind in counts like he does at a above avg mark of 23.5% and then rely on his nasty changeup and elite slider/sweeper to put hitters away. If he just adopts a sinker which seems to be more of a natural pitch for him he can throw that pitch into righties and jam guys while using his solid control to paint the corners on lefties and then use his changeup to put lefties away. As we'll see later his slider against lefties got very lucky. Soriano needs to adopt the mindset that he's best as a groundball pitcher and throwing a flat 4S fastball with a sinker profile on it is not reliable moving forward. Yennier Cano is a pitcher Soriano should try and mimic they're both players with a nasty changeup and slider with a sinker. The only difference is that Cano knows he has a sinker so he throws it down in the zone or uses it east to west instead of pounding the higher parts of the zone. 

 

Wicked Slider

     Nasty. That's the word people use when they see Soriano's slider. I'd say it's more of a new-age sweeper than anything it has 11 inches of horizontal movement on its moving glove side. That's nearly 5 inches more than average. It has an RPM of 2,688 which is 200 RPM more than average. This pitch is the only pitch he throws that allows more fly balls than groundballs but it comes at great chase rates. Soriano gets 38% whiff rate and a crazy 39% CSW%, This makes for I'd say elite slider. This is a legit slider that Soriano uses 38% of the time. Soriano does need to be careful with his slider placement to lefties. It got hit with a horrible 33% barrel rate with a 66% fly ball rate. That's going to result in major damage. He needs to throw that ball in the dirt to limit damage to lefties, this would explain his higher likelihood to throw lefties his changeup. This is by far his best put away pitch which explains why he got 33 of his 52 Ks this season on this pitch. 

 

Conclusion

     Overall George Soriano has a bright future ahead of him. Whether it's as a reliever with an elite pitch or a starter that can use his elite pitch and utilize his great changeup and develop a legit fastball to use. In my opinion, if he figures out his fastball he'll be able to be used as a starter. If he adopts a real sinker that he fills the zone with down and away or inside, then throws his slider to get strikeouts he can definitely be a guy who can be a mid-3s ERA at the back of a Major League rotation moving forward. I am very excited to see what Soriano brings to the Marlins this season as we look to make back-to-back playoffs for the first time in our franchise's history. Please let me know what you think of this analysis and if you have anything to add about Soriano. 

 

 

 

Sean McCormack